Predicting stock splits with the help of firm-specific experiences

Evidence exists of abnormal stock returns at and following stock split announcements. The successful prediction of splits may therefore enhance investor returns, yet few studies attempt such forecasts. We note a neglected aspect of prior prediction studies—that companies enjoying a favorable stock market response to a previous split are more likely to split again. Firms in industries with a record of favorable post-split performance may also be more likely to split. We find that inclusion of these factors enhances split prediction accuracy. We also find that with these factors our split prediction model generates significant abnormal returns.     

发出存货计价方法浅析

选择不同的存货计价方法将会导致不同的成本水平、报告利润和存货估价,并对企业的税收负担,现金流量产生较大影响。文章在分析影响发出存货计价方法选择因素的基础上,提出基于税务筹划的发出存货计价方法。     

Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators

The purpose of this paper is to develop a daily early warning system for stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators. To achieve this goal, we use principal components analysis to propose a comprehensive index of daily market indicators that reflects stock market valuation and investor sentiment. Based on the comprehensive index, we employ a logit model with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition to develop a daily early warning system for stock market crises. Finally, we apply the proposed system to the early warning for stock market crises in China. The in-sample forecasting results show that investor sentiment and the forecast horizon by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition improve the forecasting performance of conventional early warning systems. The out-of-sample forecasting results indicate that the proposed warning system still has a good performance.     

The effects of accounting regulations on stock valuation and volatility: Evidence from the banking industry

Banking regulators and market participants learn from price signals in the stock market (e.g., Flannery, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30: 273, 1998). Therefore, the system becomes more secure and developed as stock prices become more informative about banks’ financial conditions. Using a sample that includes major banks from 35 countries, this study investigates how accounting regulations affect bank stock valuation and volatility. The evidence suggests that bank stocks have higher valuation and lower volatility in countries that strictly regulate the quality of external audits and financial statement transparency. This study presents a comprehensive picture of the effects of bank accounting regulations on the stock market.     

Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk

In this paper, we integrate the long-run concept of risk into the stock valuation process. We use the intertemporal consumption capital asset pricing model to demonstrate that a stock’s long-run dividend growth is negatively related to its current dividend-price ratio and positively related to its long-run covariance between dividends and consumption. Then, we show that the equilibrium price of a stock is determined by its current dividend, long-run dividend growth, and long-run risk. In all, our work suggests that risk cumulated over many periods represents an important parameter in assessing the theoretical value of a firm.     

Maritime businesses: volatile stock prices and market valuation inefficiencies

This paper examines 12 maritime equity price series for behavioral stability and efficient market pricing for the 1989–2002 period. Five self-affine fractal analysis techniques for estimating the Hurst exponent, Mandelbrot–Lévy characteristic exponent, and fractal dimension are employed to explore the price series fractal properties. Techniques employed are rescaled-range analysis, power-spectral density analysis, roughness–length analysis, the variogram or structure function method, and wavelet analysis. Formal hypothesis tests provide evidence of a change in market behavior between the 1989–1994 and 1995–2002 periods. Hypothesis tests also provide evidence against efficient valuation of the maritime businesses sampled, supporting the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR), and disconfirming the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Strong evidence is presented for antipersistence of some maritime equities in the sample, suggesting market participants habitually overreact to new information, and never learn not to. An important implication of this finding is that financial derivatives based on the sampled equities cannot be efficiently priced.     

Backdating executive stock options—An ex ante valuation

When backdating executive stock options (ESOs), the exercise price is set in favor of the recipient executive. Relative to a non-backdated benchmark, we find an (ex ante) upper bound for the cost of backdating to shrink from 10% to about 3.7%, as a consequence of the regime change represented by the Sarbanes-Oxley act (SOX).We frame the backdating behavior as a (compound) exotic option, considering both simple and extended models of the underlying ESO—in the latter case we draw on the analytical ESO models of Sircar and Xiong (2007). Post-SOX, we use a Longstaff-Schwartz inspired least squares Monte Carlo approach.     

Long-term stock performance following extraordinary and special cash dividends

Using essentially all declared extraordinary and special cash dividends between 1926 and 2001 which are not preceded or followed by the same for a period of three years, we find no robust post-declaration long-term abnormal stock returns, even in sub-samples defined by the special dividend yield, the bang-for-the-buck, the declaration-period abnormal return, the sub-sampling period or the stock market condition at declaration. Only event firms in the smallest CRSP market capitalization quintile display significant positive abnormal returns during the first-year following the declaration. However, these latter are not robust across sub-sampling periods. Overall, there is no compelling evidence that investors under- or over-react to extraordinary or special cash dividends.     

The effects of employee stock ownership on stock liquidity: Evidence from the Korean market

This study investigates the relationship between the level of employee stock ownership (ESO) and stock liquidity. Using Korean ESO data, we find that ESO is positively associated with various liquidity measures. Stock-owning employees tend to mitigate information asymmetry to increase their benefits from the transparent market. We also find stronger effects when the firm is not an affiliate of a chaebol family group, and is less monitored by financial analysts, foreign investors, and outside directors. Furthermore, we employ various robustness tests to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns.     

Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency

This study tests for underreaction and overreaction in European large cap markets by examining the abnormal returns of those stocks in the EuroStoxx 50 Index following large price increases and decreases. We find that large price increases and declines tend to be followed by average market returns. Thus, our results support the efficient market theory, rather than any of the behaviour finance hypotheses. This insight is contrary to price patterns found in various national markets.     

Price effects of steel commodities on worldwide stock market returns

We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.     

The valuation effects of bank loan ratings in the presence of multiple monitors

Studies have shown that when two information providers or outside auditors exist, the value provided by the second one will be decreased by the actions of the first. Credit rating agencies have been rating bank loans since 1996. Capitalizing on the highly similar functions performed by banks and these agencies, the informational value of bank loan ratings is examined. Further, evidence is provided on whether rating agencies duplicate the certifying and monitoring roles played by banks. The significant market reaction to negative bank loan rating announcements suggests these rating actions convey information beyond that provided via bank loan approvals and renewals. The authors wish to thank Richard Robinson (the Editor), an anonymous referee, Mary A. Lawrence, Abdullah Mamun, Brian Murphy, Lawrence Rose, Mark Vaughn, Massey University-Albany seminar, 2004 Financial Management Association and 2005 Academy of Financial Services participants for their helpful comments.     

The momentum and reversal effects of investor sentiment on stock prices

In this paper, we illustrate the real function relationship between the stock returns and change of investor sentiment based on the nonparametric regression model. The empirical results show that when the change of investor sentiment is moderate, the stock return is positively correlated with the change of investor sentiment, presenting an obvious momentum effect. However, the stock return is negatively correlated with the change of investor sentiment if the change of investor sentiment is dramatic, presenting significant reversal effects. Moreover, the degree of reversal effect caused by extremely optimistic sentiment is greater than that driven by extremely pessimistic sentiment, which shows a significant asymmetry. Our findings offer a partial explanation for financial anomalies such as the mean reversion of stock returns, the characteristic of slow rise and steep fall in China's stock market and so on.     

Long-term relationship between political behavior and stock market return: new evidence from quantile regression

The stock market is an extremely sensitive and comprehensive indicator of the fluctuating political climate as well as investor confidence. Therefore, in an era of fierce media competition, the long-term influence of political behaviors on the Taiwan stock market is an important issue. However, the traditional regression model can only describe the “average” influence of variables on rate of return rather than completely describe conditional distribution as in quantile regression, which also analyzes correlations between stock return and the congressional effect.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

Information effects of announced stock index additions: evidence from S&P 400

The study examines the information content of press announcements of S&P 400 additions between 2002 and 2007. Prior research into stock index additions has explained the positive valuation effects of additions to S&P indices mostly in terms of the price pressure hypothesis and downward sloping curve hypothesis. The two hypotheses attribute the positive market reaction purely to index-fund buying rather than information effects of announcements. My empirical investigation further reinforces the credibility of the information hypothesis by showing that the market varies its response to added firms depending on the information released about them at the announcement. The analysis demonstrates that the mode of addition, exchange listing, reason for index change, and firm size can modulate valuation effects of stock index additions. The paper also strengthens the argument that announcements of additions to an S&P index contain new signals about the industries represented by the added firms. Positive and significant wealth effects are exclusively attributable to ??non-member?? rival firms. Overall, the results imply that the market discerns and rewards firms that come from outside the S&P universe (pure additions) and rival firms that are not part of a target index.     

Return distributions and the day-of-the-week effects in the stock exchange of Thailand

The Presence of the day-of-the week effect has been documented in equity markets throughout the world. Most of the studies reporting this pervasive pattern have relied on the OLS methodology. More recently, using more robust methodology, some inconclusive results have been report regarding the said anomaly. This study examines the day-of-the-week effect in the Securities Exchange of Thailand using OLS as well as GARCH models. We examine the aggregate stock index, SET, as well as its ten industry-classified indices over a 15-year period starting in 1980. Our investigation finds persisting day-of-the-week effects irrespective of the methodology employed. The findings are in direct contrast with earlier suggestions that the day-of-the-week anomalies are exaggerated by rraditional treatments to the data.     

On economic uncertainty,stock market predictability and nonlinear spillover effects

This paper uses a k-th order nonparametric Granger causality test to analyze whether firm-level, economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indicators predict movements in real stock returns and their volatility. Linear Granger causality tests show that whilst economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indices can predict stock returns, firm-level uncertainty measures possess no predictability. However, given the existence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities in the series, we employ a nonparametric causality methodology, as linear modeling leads to misspecifications thus the results cannot be considered reliable. The nonparametric test reveals that in fact no predictability can be observed for the various measures of uncertainty i.e., firm-level, macroeconomic and economic policy uncertainty, vis-à-vis real stock returns. In turn, a profound causal predictability is demonstrated for the volatility series, with the exception of firm-level uncertainty. Overall our results not only emphasize the role of economic and firm-level uncertainty measures in predicting the volatility of stock returns, but also presage against using linear models which are likely to suffer from misspecification in the presence of parameter instability and nonlinear spillover effects.     

Long-term earnings and employment effects of housing voucher receipt

Using a propensity score matching approach coupled with difference-in-differences regression analysis, we estimate the effect of housing voucher receipt on the employment and earnings of a large longitudinal sample of low-income families for 6 years following voucher receipt. Our results indicate that voucher receipt has little effect on employment, but a negative effect on earnings. The negative earnings effect is largest in the years immediately following initial receipt, and fades out over time. In addition, we find that the pattern of recipient earnings responses to voucher receipt differs substantially across demographic subgroups. Several robustness tests are run to support the reliability of our findings. We discuss the implications of our findings for research and policy.     

Long-run stock performance following stock repurchases

Studies examining long-term performance after stock repurchases provide mixed results. I point out two substantive problems in samplings of early studies. First, we should distinguish whether or not firms actually repurchase shares following announcements of repurchase programs. Second, as some firms frequently announce repurchase programs, we should consider overlapping announcements during the performance estimation period to avoid any confounding effects. Using a sample that corrects for these problems and the calendar portfolio regression method, I find strong evidence that firms that announce repurchase programs infrequently and repurchase shares actually experience significant long-term abnormal returns. These findings provide an explanation of why some previous studies failed to find significant positive long-term performance.