EXPORT‐MARKET DYNAMICS AND THE PROBABILITY OF FIRM CLOSURE: EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

This study presents the first empirical analysis of the determinants of firm closure in the United Kingdom with an emphasis on the role of export‐market dynamics, using panel data for a nationally representative group of firms operating in all‐market‐based sectors during 1997–2003. Our findings show that the probability of closure is (cet. par.) significantly lower for exporters, particularly those experiencing export‐market entry and exit. Having controlled for other attributes associated with productivity (such as size and export status), the following factors are found to increase the firm's survival prospects: higher capital intensity and TFP, foreign ownership, young age, displacement effects (through relatively high rates of entry of firms in each industry), and belonging to certain industries. Interestingly, increased import penetration (a proxy for lower trade costs) leads to a lower hazard rate for exporting entrants and continuous exporters, while inducing a higher hazard rate for domestic producers or those that quit exporting.     

Unionization and plant closure in Canada

Abstract .  This paper examines for the first time the role of unionization as a determinant of plant closings in Canada. Using the 1999 to 2001 Canadian Workplace and Employee Survey, the paper contributes to the North American evidence by showing that the share of a plant's workers covered by collective bargaining has a robust positive partial correlation with the probability of larger plants closing. For smaller plants, the extent of unionization tends to be much lower and its variation plays no role in plant closure. The study highlights the theoretical and statistical importance of examining closure separately for large and small plants.     

Social networking websites: who survives?

This article studies the relationship between the characteristics of social networking sites (SNSs) and their probability of survival. The data sample includes 224 SNSs launched throughout the world from 1995 to 2015 and that can be described by focus strategy, business financing methods and interactions with external companies, such as partnerships, mergers and acquisitions. Three factors are systematically associated with closure hazard rates. First, compared with SNSs that address a specialized audience, generalist SNSs have a three times higher probability of closing. Second, being the target of a merger or acquisition more than doubles the probability of closure. Third, new entrants have higher probability to survive if compared with SNSs with experience in the industry.     

PERSISTENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITORY EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS ON FIRM DYNAMICS

Recent evidence demonstrates that exchange rate movements can affect firm survival and entry. However, there is little evidence on whether there are asymmetric effects of an appreciation versus depreciation. This article uses firm‐level data over a period of a large currency appreciation followed by a large depreciation to examine possible asymmetries in firm survival and entry resulting in the endurance of exchange rate effects. We find that when real currency appreciations precede depreciations, appreciations reduce firm entry rates to a greater degree than depreciations increase that rate; but appreciations reduce the probability of firm survival at a magnitude not significantly different from the increase in probability that results from a depreciation. Taken together, we find that a 10% reciprocal episode of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation will result in 1,647 (5.2%) fewer firms compared with a regime with no change in the exchange rate. These results are consistent with exchange rate hysteresis whereby a transitory exchange rate shock has a permanent effect. (JEL F1)     

Market Size and the Survival of Foreign‐owned Firms*

We develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and foreign direct investment cost uncertainty and investigate the survival of foreign‐owned firms. The survival probabilities of foreign‐owned firms depend on firm‐level characteristics, such as productivity, and host country characteristics, such as market size. We show that a foreign‐owned firm will be less likely to be shut down when its parent firm's productivity is higher and its indigenous competitors are less productive. Although a larger market size will always reduce the survival probability of indigenous firms, it can lead to a higher survival probability for foreign‐owned firms if their parent firms are sufficiently productive.     

DOES WORKSHARING WORK? SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE IAB‐ESTABLISHMENT PANEL

Recent policy debate in Europe suggests that a shorter workweek will lead to more jobs (worksharing). We derive and estimate a model where the firm employs two types of workers, some working overtime, the rest standard hours. Worksharing is not always a prediction of the theory. Using German establishment‐level panel data (the IAB‐ESTABLISHMENT panel), 1993–1999, we find no evidence of pro‐worksharing effects except in small plants in the East German non‐service sector. There is evidence that a cut in standard hours lowers the proportion of overtime workers in a plant, as predicted by the theory, and increases the proportion of standard‐time plants.     

Cross‐border mergers and acquisitions in services: The role of policy and industrial structure

This paper explores the role of policy and economic structure in determining international mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in services sectors. The analysis is based on bilateral sectoral M&A flow data and detailed information on policy barriers from a new database. Restrictive investment policies are found to reduce the probability of M&A inflows, controlling for bilateral frictions such as geography. This negative effect, however, is mitigated in countries with relatively large shares of manufacturing and (to a lesser extent) services in GDP. The same result holds for the number of M&A deals concluded. Findings are robust to accounting for the potential endogeneity of policy restrictiveness. The evidence suggests that the impact of policy is state‐dependent and related to the composition of GDP in the target economy.     

Post‐conflict stabilization in Africa

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success     

Internal and external factors in innovation persistence

This paper contributes to the analysis of the persistence of innovation activities, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP), and explores its internal and external determinants stressing its path-dependent characteristics. The external conditions, namely the quality of local knowledge pools and the strength of the Schumpeterian rivalry, along with the internal conditions (the actual levels of dynamic capabilities, as proxied by wage levels and firm size) exert a specific and localised effect upon the persistent introduction of innovations. A multiple transition probability matrixes (MTPMs) approach has been implemented to capture the contingent effects of external factors on long-term innovation persistence. The empirical analysis of the dynamics of firm-level TFP for a sample of approximately 7000 Italian manufacturing companies observed during the years 1996–2005 is based on both the comparison of different transition probability matrixes and on dynamic discrete choice panel data models. The evidence provided by the test of MTPMs in sub-periods suggests that innovation persistence is path-dependent, as opposed to past-dependent.     

Multinational Companies,Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival*

How does the presence of multinational companies affect plant survival in the host country? We postulate that multinational companies can impact positively on plant survival through technology spillovers. We examine the nature of the effect of multinationals using a Cox proportional hazard model, which we estimate using plant‐level data for Irish manufacturing industries. Our results show that the presence of multinationals has a life‐enhancing effect only on indigenous plants in high‐tech industries, suggesting the presence of technology spillovers. In contrast, multinationals compete with each other in low‐tech sectors in the host country.     

Effect of ageing on the ownership of durable goods

I analyse how ageing affects the demand for non‐housing durable goods. Based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, individual characteristics, cohort and time effects can explain most of the age variation in the ownership and purchase of durable goods. A life‐cycle model is derived to capture the complex relation between ageing and the demand for non‐housing durable goods. Decreasing survival probability, deteriorating health and changing preferences are jointly reflected in the age gradient of demand. Simulations indicate that higher chances of survival increase the ownership ratio of the durable items.     

Non‐Scale Endogenous Growth with R&D and Human Capital

This paper examines the conditions under which increasing knowledge, encapsulated in ideas for new technology through R&D and embodied in human capital through education, sustains economic growth. A general model is developed where, consistent with recent literature, growth is non‐scale (not increasing in population size) and endogenous (generated by factors within R&D and education). Recent models feature the counterfactual assumption of constant returns to existing knowledge and restrict the substitutability of inputs within R&D and education. We find that non‐scale endogenous growth is possible under less stringent conditions. The findings reconcile sustained economic growth with evidence of diminishing marginal returns in education and R&D, which suggests an ambiguous role for R&D policy.     

Regional variations in exporters’ productivity premium: Theory and evidence

The international trade literature confirms that the average productivity of exporters is higher than that of nonexporters, while economic geography studies establish that urban firms tend to be more productive than rural ones. By introducing region‐specific transportation costs in a Melitz‐type heterogeneous‐firm trade model, the theory predicts that the minimum threshold productivity level for export is higher but that for survival by serving the local market is lower in the periphery region than in the core. Using Japanese plant‐level panel data, we find evidence supporting the theoretical prediction that exporters in the peripheral regions, especially those distant from the core, have large productivity premiums.     

Upper Secondary School Completion and the Business Cycle

Previous evidence suggests that enrollment in post‐compulsory education increases (decreases) in cyclical downturns (upturns). However, little evidence exists on whether enrollment is successfully transformed into completed education. This paper adds to the literature by analyzing the relationship between completion of upper secondary education and regional unemployment using Norwegian regional panel data on students graduating from compulsory school between 1981 and 2004. We find robust evidence that completion rates are countercyclical. Our results suggest that poor labor‐market conditions when starting upper secondary education have a lasting effect and motivate students to stay in school and graduate.     

期权激励与管理层择机：中国的经验证据

文章实证检验了上市公司在实施股票期权激励中管理层的择机行为。研究发现：（1）区间定价样本择机授予期权以降低行权价格;（2）区间定价样本与单日定价样本在定价基准日之后均择机披露利好消息以提高期权价值;（3）当管理层权力较大、公司治理水平较低、最终控制人性质为国有时,管理层同时发生择机授予期权与择机披露信息行为的概率较高,而无形资产占比和公司规模则会降低管理层同时发生以上两种择机行为的概率。文章的研究结论丰富和拓展了已有文献对管理层择机行为的研究成果,而且对于有效推行管理层期权激励计划以及抑制管理层择机行为具有重要的现实意义。     

Efficiency and stability of sampling equilibrium in public goods games

Most models of social preferences and bounded rationality that are effective in explaining efficiency‐increasing departures from equilibrium behavior cannot easily account for similar deviations when they are efficiency‐reducing. We show that the notion of sampling equilibrium, subject to a suitable stability refinement, can account for behavior in both efficiency‐enhancing and efficiency‐reducing conditions. In particular, in public goods games with dominant strategy equilibria, stable sampling equilibrium can involve the play of dominated strategies with positive probability both when such behavior increases aggregate payoffs (relative to the standard prediction) and when it reduces aggregate payoffs. The dominant strategy equilibrium prediction changes abruptly from zero contribution to full contribution as a parameter crosses a threshold, whereas the stable sampling equilibrium remains fully mixed throughout. This is consistent with the available experimental evidence.     

Works council ‘disaffection’ and establishment survivability

This article investigates the association between a measure of works council heterogeneity and plant closings in Germany, 2006–2015. Two datasets are used to identify failed establishments, while institutional heterogeneity is captured by management perceptions of the role of the works council in managerial decision making and also by allowing for works council learning. The potential moderating role of sectoral collective bargaining is also examined. We report that works councils per se are not associated with plant closure. Rather, it is establishments with disaffected councils that display higher rates of closure. The latter result does not obtain where such establishments are covered by sectoral agreements; an outcome that is consistent with the literature on the mitigation of rent-seeking behaviour, and one that also receives support from our finding that plants with dissonant councils are more likely than their consensual counterparts to transition into sectoral bargaining coverage. On the other hand, there is only limited evidence of works council learning.     

Parental Income and Continuing Education of Second Generation Immigrants in Sweden

Understanding the economic integration of minority ethnic communities requires an analysis of the educational process. This paper examines second‐generation immigrant youths’ educational attainments in comparison with those of similarly aged native Swedes. Binomial‐logit, grouped‐regression and multinomial‐logit models are applied to longitudinal data, 1991–1996. The results give evidence for socioeconomic determinants of post‐compulsory education and for parental influence on educational choices. Parental income affects second‐generation immigrants’ post‐compulsory education and Swedes’ choice of level of education. In general, the stronger the labour market positions of the parents, the higher the probability of the children continuing education. It is also found that the geographical origin of second‐generation immigrants matter, with youths of Asian origin having a higher probability of continuing their education. We suggest policy changes on different levels based on the evidence of the paper, as short‐run, long‐run and in general.     

Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks

We use comprehensive firm‐level data to estimate the responses of heterogeneous Canadian retail firms to real exchange rate movements. Our analysis focuses on a period characterized by large fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, providing an opportunity to quantify both intensive and extensive margin responses in retail industries to real exchange rate shocks and to examine how those responses differ across firms, locations, and sub‐industries. Our results indicate that a real Canadian currency appreciation significantly reduces a retailer's sales, employment, and profits. The strength of this negative effect is decreasing in the distance of a retailer from the US‐Canada border. We do not find evidence of a strong relationship between real exchange rate movements and the number of operating firms nor the probability of firm survival. These findings are consistent with the view that a real Canadian dollar appreciation increases cross‐border shopping by Canadians, resulting in a negative demand shock for Canadian retailers, and the dominant response by firms to such a shock is through the intensive margin.     

Optimal public policy with endogenous mortality

We analyze the welfare‐maximizing policy mix between explicit and implicit taxation, where the probability of survival of the young agents depends upon the share of government expenditure on health, education and infrastructure. We show that increases in the survival probability lead to an increase in the reliance on seigniorage as a welfare maximizing outcome. However, the seigniorage tax base must be large enough for the benevolent planner to use the inflation tax.