Sea-level rise impacts on transport infrastructure: The notorious case of the coastal railway line at Dawlish,England

Future climate change is likely to increase the frequency of coastal storms and floods, with major consequences for coastal transport infrastructure. This paper assesses the extent to which projected sea-level rise is likely to impact upon the functioning of the Dawlish to Teignmouth stretch of the London to Penzance railway line, in England. Using a semi-empirical modelling approach, we identify a relationship between sea-level change and rail incidents over the last 150 years and then use model-based sea-level predictions to extrapolate this relationship into the future. We find that days with line restrictions (DLRs) look set to increase by up to 1170%, to as many as 84–120 per year, by 2100 in a high sea-level rise scenario (0.55–0.81 m). Increased costs to the railway industry deriving from maintenance and line restrictions will be small (£ millions) in comparison with damage caused by individual extreme events (£10s of millions), while the costs of diversion of the railway are higher still (£100s of millions to billions). Socio-economic costs to the region are likely to be significant although they are more difficult to estimate accurately. Finally, we explain how our methodology is applicable to vulnerable coastal transport infrastructure worldwide.     

PM,NOx and CO2 emission reductions from speed management policies in Europe

Speed reduction measures rank among the most common schemes to improve traffic safety. Recently many urban streets or entire districts were converted into 30 kph zones and in many European countries the maximum permissible speed of trucks on motorways is under discussion. However, besides contributing to traffic safety, reducing the maximum speed is also seen as beneficial to the environment due to the associated reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions. These claims however are often unsubstantiated.To gain greater insight into the impact of speed management policies on emissions, this paper examines the impact on different traffic types (urban versus highway traffic) with different modelling approaches (microscopic versus macroscopic). Emissions were calculated for specific types of vehicles with the microscopic VeTESS-tool using real-world driving cycles and compared with the results obtained using generalized Copert-like macroscopic methodologies. We analyzed the relative change in pollutants emitted before and after the implementation of a speed reduction measure for passenger cars on local roads (50–30 kph) and trucks on motorways (90–80 kph). Results indicate that emissions of most classic pollutants for the research undertaken do not rise or fall dramatically. For the passenger cars both methods indicate only minor changes to the emissions of NO_x and CO₂. For PM, the macroscopic approach predicts a moderate increase in emissions whereas microscopic results indicate a significant decrease. The effects of specific speed reduction schemes on PM emissions from trucks are ambiguous but lower maximums speed for trucks consistently result in lower emissions of CO₂ and lower fuel consumption. These results illustrate the scientific uncertainties that policy makers face when considering the implementation of speed management policies.     

Investigating the impact of recession on transportation cost capitalization: a spatial analysis

The unprecedented economic crisis experienced by Greece is fertile ground for research at myriad levels. In this paper, the authors aim to investigate the effects of the crisis on real estate prices by measuring the impact of transportation infrastructure location. For the purposes of this research, on-line real estate data collected in 2011, when the consequences of the crisis were still uncertain, and in 2013, when a significant decline had been observed, are combined.The analysis is based on various spatial statistical methods. In order to identify potential common price patterns, G spatial clustering is first performed. Spatial error models (SEM) are then developed to parameterize the real estate prices. The results show that, overall, purchase prices have been reduced by 18.2% and rents by 15.2%. More specifically, the positive impact of metro station locations (<500 m) has declined 42.5% for purchase prices and 62.5% for rents. Moreover, dwellings located in the Inner Ring are still more expensive than others; however, the impact of the crisis has been reduced by 30.3% for purchases and 50.7% for rents. On the other hand, the negative impact of ISAP station locations (<500 m) has declined by 53.5% for purchase prices.The findings of this paper could be of great interest to the transportation policy research community and could be used to better predict the benefits and costs of public transport investment under extremely uncertain conditions, such as a long-lasting recession.     

New method to estimate local and system-wide effects of level rail crossings on network traffic flow

This paper makes local and aggregate estimates of the effects of 152 level crossings in the Melbourne metropolitan area, Australia on traffic congestion in the morning peak period (7 am–9 am). A new method, including micro-simulation of a range of rail crossing configurations, is used to inform a network model which makes aggregate estimates of impacts on all traffic.Relationships between train frequency and percentage change in vehicle travel time and volume were identified. These equations can predict change in travel time/traffic flow caused by rail level crossings based on rail crossing closures and train frequency.Overall, Melbourne's level crossings result in an average increase in travel time of 16.1% for vehicle traffic on links with a level crossing. However on average a level crossing reduces the volume of vehicles on these links by 5.9% as a result of traffic diversion. These values are higher in middle suburbs where train arrivals and crossing closure times at level crossings are more frequent.The aggregate effect of all 152 level rail crossings on all traffic in Melbourne is a travel time change from 1.81 to 1.82 min/km (an increase of around 0.3%). The number of congested links in Melbourne increases by 0.9% while the total delay increases by 0.7%. These network wide effects are not large compared to localised effects because road links affected directly by crossings represent a very small part of the overall network. Additionally, network effects also include traffic diversion impacts which will counteract some of the immediate impacts on a localised scale. However, it is significant that the very small element of the system can have even a measurable effect on aggregate traffic congestion.     

Environmental benefits of air–rail intermodality: The example of Madrid Barajas

The environmental impact of transport is a growing issue in transport infrastructure planning. The construction of a high-speed rail station at the Madrid Barajas Airport in Spain is an example of the integration of different transportation modes, with expected environmental benefits. We construct a model to assess modal choice and environmental benefits. The results show that with high-speed rail the number of people choosing air travel and the private car is reduced leading to important environmental benefits: a reduction of close to 5 kg of CO₂ per passenger, or 10% of all emissions on the corridor. Our results also show that increasing the cost of using the private car is picked up by air transport rather than high-speed rail, leading to an increase in total emissions.     

High-speed rail and regional development: the case of intermediate stations

High-speed rail has developed both nationally and internationally in Europe as a successful alternative to both air and road over distances of 400–600 km. Inter-city traffic, especially between the major metropolitan areas in North-west Europe has benefitted greatly from the investment in this network. This paper explores two issues: the impact on the intermediate areas between these major metropolitan areas and the creation of potential cross-border inter-regional services. The evidence shows how both levels of service and potential economic impacts have been much less pronounced in these intermediate areas. Such areas have been affected both by a failure to see greatly improved direct access to major cities other than within their own countries and a lack of new cross-border inter-regional services. The paper argues that the creation of the high-speed rail TEN-T has not met the primary objectives of reducing regional disparities in accessibility or reducing the effect of national borders on regional integration. To achieve this requires not just infrastructure provision but an appropriate regulatory framework for service provision and accompanying measures at the local level.     

Integrated railways-based policies: The Regional Metro System (RMS) project of Naples and Campania

The Campania Regional Metro System (RMS) project is an example of integrated land-use, infrastructure and operational planning. The whole project is based on the idea of integrating the existing railway lines into a single physical network by building some new links, new stations and new modal interchange facilities. The RMS project integrates also operational components such as service lines, timetables and integrated pricing. In addition to the transit “supply-side” elements, the project includes relevant “demand-side” aspects, including town planning based on the rail network, urban renewal around rail stations and upgraded and new stations with high architectural standards and a new symbolic value. This paper describes the general structure of the project. It also discusses some preliminary results on land-use and modal shift after the implementation of the first stage of the project, which included 43 km of new railways lines, 30 new stations, an integrated timetable and a single integrated ticket.     

Ex-post environmental and traffic assessment of a speed reduction strategy in Madrid's inner ring-road

Since urban traffic is a major source of CO₂ and NO_x emissions, cities play a key role averting climate change and combating air pollution. Most researchers agree on the need of designing comprehensive mitigation strategies instead of applying isolated measures. Nevertheless, it is important to understand the specific impact and scope of each measure to look for the most effective synergies among them. In 2004, the Madrid City Council launched a plan to re-design its inner ring-road to move traffic out of the city centre. For safety reasons the planned speed limit for the full-renovated South-West section was finally reduced from 90 km/h to 70 km/h. Besides contributing to traffic safety, this strategy could also be seen as positive to the environment due to the associated reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions. However, lower speed limits have lower rates of community acceptance due to its impact on average travel times at the individual level. This paper conducts an ex-post evaluation of this speed reduction strategy to explore its environmental and traffic performance impacts. The results support the thesis that, in this velocity range, lower speed limits present important opportunities for reducing GHG and air pollution in the section affected by the measure, without substantially altering traffic performance. The implementation of the new speed limit policy produces a 14.4% and 16.4% reduction in CO₂ and NO_x emissions respectively, while global travel time remains virtually constant and the saturation rate decreases slightly. Besides, this cost-effective measure reveals great potential to reduce air pollution in highly populated urban areas located next to urban highways. This work provides local policy makers and city managers with useful insights regarding potential co-benefits of traffic optimization and speed reduction management to reduce mobile source emissions in urban environments.     

Reevaluation of Japanese high-speed rail construction: Recent situation of the north corridor Shinkansen and its way to completion

Since the inauguration of the first “Shinkansen” high-speed railway line in Japan—the Tokaido Shinkansen—in 1964, Japan's high-speed railway lines have been a great success. On the other side of the coin, however, Japan's second phase of constructing high-speed lines, which was first planned in 1973, has made little progress over many years. It is thus interesting to consider why such a contrast between the former success and latter stagnation of Shinkansen construction has come about. While the competitiveness of high-speed railways has been reevaluated, and as various countries around the world introduce high-speed rail lines, this matter has become one of great interest. In our current research, first, it is shown that under an environment that has become surrounded by railways in Japan over recent years, these high-speed rail lines—which in Japan in the past have been called unnecessary public work projects—in fact have a significant competitive edge over other projects. As one of these lines, the Hokuriku Shinkansen, which links Tokyo and Osaka via a northern route from Tokyo that passes through the Hokuriku region, is taken up by this study and reevaluated. In doing so, considering that the reason for not precisely evaluating this line is the fact that the layout of the 100 km section of line near Osaka is not yet determined, the authors present and compare several routes for this section. As regards the evaluation of these routes, several distinctive ideas-such as routes utilizing part of the Tokaido Shinkansen line and using gauge-changeable trains are incorporated. As well as performing a detailed cost-benefit analysis, this study investigates all conceivable technical problems concerning the line. Furthermore, in the event of further increasing train speed, it is clearly shown that passenger flow through the central region of Japan will change significantly, thus generating significant demand and increasing user benefits.By precisely evaluating a high-speed railway line, this analysis has revealed the prospect of introducing such a line. Moreover, by presenting the finding of Japan—which has accumulated an extensive knowledge of high-speed railway lines—it will contribute to the evaluation of the high-speed railway lines being considered under the key transport policies of many countries around the world.     

Bus rapid transit impacts on land uses and land values in Seoul,Korea

Bus rapid transit (BRT) has gained popularity as a cost-effective alternative to urban rail investments; however, relatively little is known about its impacts on land-use changes and land values. This paper examines the land-market effects of converting regular bus operations to median-lane bus services in Seoul, Korea, one of the densest, most congested cities in the world. Multilevel models reveal BRT improvements prompted property owners to convert single-family residences to higher density apartments and condominiums. Land price premiums of up to 10% were estimated for residences within 300 m of BRT stops and more than 25% for retail and other non-residential uses over a smaller impact zone of 150 m. The research findings underscore the importance of introducing zoning and other land regulatory changes prior to the initiation of BRT improvements as well as applying value-capture tools to help finance investments and redress inequities.     

Design speeds and acceleration characteristics of bicycle traffic for use in planning,design and appraisal

This paper reports the results of a study of a cohort of cyclists to determine their speed and acceleration characteristics relative to gradient and other influencing factors in order to supply data for planners, designers and appraisers of cycle infrastructure schemes. A cohort of everyday cyclists was supplied with a global positioning system device and a heart rate monitor and asked to collect data from their journeys in Leeds, UK.The analysis determines the cyclists’ speeds and accelerations at every point on their journey and elevation data, corroborated by mapping information, was used to determine the gradient. Two linear regression models of speed and acceleration were estimated and show that the influence of a downhill gradient on speed is less pronounced than the effect of an uphill gradient. The results indicate an eighty-fifth percentile speed on the flat of 22 kph, and for a downhill gradient of 3%, 25 kph. The power required to cycle has been estimated and shows that cyclists deliver around 150 W on the flat, but that this rises to around 250 W climbing hills. Mean acceleration on the flat is 0.231 m/s² and the average power output over the acceleration phase, which is of mean duration 26 s, is approximately 120 W. Air resistance accounts for approximately 70% of the resistive force when cycling at design speed.It is recommended that designers adopt 25 kph as a design speed for gradients less than 3%, but that consideration should be given to design speeds of up to 35 kph for steeper gradients. Free-flow speeds in this range should be used when modelling mode and route choices and in benefit appraisal.     

Transport accounts—methodological concepts and empirical results

Although economic theory suggests social marginal cost pricing as the optimal pricing principle for transport infrastructure charging, information on the total (or average) social costs of transport and on the revenues from taxes and charges are important for pricing policy, for example for monitoring purposes and for the design of second-best prices. This paper provides empirical evidence on the total social costs and revenues for road, rail and air transport, covering all EU countries and Switzerland. It discusses methodologies to estimate the social costs of transport for all modes, focussing on practical experience with applying advanced methodological approaches both in the light of data quality and availability, and regarding the feasibility of conducting this type of research on a routine basis for transport policy.     

Spatial interpolation of traffic counts based on origin–destination centrality

This paper presents a new method to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic. Often traffic volumes are estimated based on roadway characteristics, such as number of lanes, speed limit, and adjacent land use. However, for many communities, especially small communities, these attributes are uniform across roadway types and therefore unable to adequately explain observed variation in traffic volumes. The new method uses novel explanatory variables that are intrinsically derived through a modified form of centrality, a network analysis metric that quantifies the topological importance of a link in a network. The new approach requires minimal data collection and is easily executed using a geographic information system. The case study showed high quality results (out-of-sample validation R² = 0.95). The new approach can be used for various activities related to transportation planning and investment decision making.     

Impacts of high speed rail on railroad network accessibility in China

High speed rail (HSR) is changing the overall travel accessibility of cities in China. There have been a number of studies of high speed rail in China. However, detailed spatiotemporal accessibility pattern of cities affected by the operation of high speed rail in China has not been reported. This study takes a timetable-based accessibility evaluation approach to analyze the changes in travel time, travel cost, and distance accessibility for each of the four main stages of HSR development in China: no HSR service in Stage 1 before August 2008, several HSR lines in Stage 2 between August 2008 and July 2011, reduced operating speed of HSR trains in Stage 3 between August 2011 and November 2012, and addition of new HSR lines and reduction of ticket fares in Stage 4 between December 2012 and January 2013. In addition to the “corridor effect” and the “center-diffusion” pattern, this paper investigates the impacts of HSR on changes in in-vehicle travel time and out-of-vehicle travel time with respect to the policy changes that reduced the operating speed of HSR trains, rearranged the train timetable, and lowered the ticket fare on HSR trains. The analysis results indicate the spatiotemporal pattern of Chinese cities affected by these policy changes. This study is useful for assessing HSR impacts on the accessibility of various cities across China as well as serving as a decision-making support to policies related to adjustments of HSR operation and planning of future HSR routes by considering the existing HSR and non-HSR railway lines.     

Impacts of vehicle restrictions on urban transport flows: The case of Santiago,Chile

Regression models are employed to quantify the effects of vehicle restrictions on private and public transport passenger flows in Santiago, Chile using trip flow data for cars, buses and the city's Metro rail system. Estimates are derived for the effects of two restrictions: a permanent measure applied from April through August 2008 to vehicles without catalytic converters and additional measures that banned the use of vehicles with catalytic converters between 7:30 am and 9 pm on days declared as environmental “pre-emergencies” due to high air pollution levels. The estimates show that the permanent restriction had no impact on the use of private cars while the additional restriction curtailed their use by 5.5%. Also, on pre-emergency days the flow of passengers to the Metro increased by about 3% while the bus network showed no statistically significant increase. The pre-emergency restrictions thus had an effect on the ridership of the Metro but not on the bus network as alternatives to the use of private cars.     

The effects of road infrastructure improvement on work travel in Northern Iceland

Work travel is an important alternative to out-migration in rural areas characterized by a limited range of jobs. The size of local labour markets is determined in part by geography and tradition, but advances in transportation have the potential to move people and communities closer together and transform established mindscapes. In Iceland, the dispersion of the rural population, a challenging terrain, and unpredictable weather has made road infrastructure improvements a key component in regional development strategies. A large-scale tunnel project completed in 2010 was intended to strengthen a vulnerable rural area on the northern coast and expand the urban labour market of the regional centre of Akureyri. Traffic surveys and resident surveys conducted before and after the tunnels show a substantial increase in 17–34 km work travel between rural communities. Work travel 61–77 km to and from the regional centre did however not increase. The average length of work travel has shortened but the increase in commuting yielded a net increase in total km commuted. The tunnels increased work travel irrespective of age and education, but increased work travel by women with children in the household in particular. The results suggest that large-scale road infrastructure improvements may substantially strengthen rural labour markets within a driving distance of 15–30 min, but may not extend the edge of micropolitan labour markets 45–60 min from an urban centre of less than 20 thousand inhabitants.     

The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia

This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42 years (1973–2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3–4 years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.     

Exploring the impacts of land use by service coverage and station-level accessibility on rail transit ridership

In this study, we employ spatial regression analysis to empirically investigate the impacts of land use, rail service coverage, and rail station accessibility on rail transit ridership in the city of Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan region. Our analyses suggest that a rail transit service coverage boundary of 500 m provides the best fit for estimating rail transit ridership levels. With regard to land use, our results confirm that density is positively related to rail transit ridership within a 750 m radius of each station. In contrast, land use diversity is not associated with rail transit ridership. We also found that station-level accessibility is as important as land use for explaining rail transit ridership levels. Finally, we conclude that development density and station-level accessibility measures such as the number of station entrances or exits and the number of bus routes at the station are the most important and consistent factors for promoting rail transit ridership.     

Long-term impact of network access to bike facilities and public transit stations on housing sales prices in Portland,Oregon

Planners and economists generally accept that housing market values increase with proximity to transportation facilities through the provision of improved access to activity locations. While the market benefits of rail station access are well-documented, inconsistent and insufficient methods have led to limited agreement on the true value associated with this locational amenity. Far fewer hedonic price studies have assessed the influence of bike facility access on housing sales prices, and those that have generally analyze cross-sectional data. In this study, we estimated a spatial hedonic model using a bootstrapped pseudo panel to determine the joint impact of network proximity to bike lanes and off-street multi-use paths, as well as light rail and streetcar stations, on housing sales in Portland, Oregon, from 2002 to 2013. Our findings revealed housing sales prices increased as network distance to the nearest light rail transit and streetcar station decreased. Likewise, owner-occupied single-family and multifamily housing sales rose in conjunction with reduced street network access to regional multi-use bike paths; however, improved proximity to on-street bike lanes negatively affected housing values. In sum, we believe these findings may help to inform non-automotive transportation infrastructure financing mechanisms that rely on rising property values.     

Cyclists' exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise in central city neighbourhoods of Montreal

It is well known that bicycling in urban areas has beneficial effects on people's health and well-being. On the other hand, urban cycling, especially during the morning and evening commute, may be associated with health and safety risks due to potentially high levels of exposure to air pollution, road noise, and high traffic density. Few studies have, however, measured cyclists' exposure to noise and air pollution simultaneously.The objective of this research is to evaluate cyclists' exposure to air pollution and noise in central city neighbourhoods of Montreal and to identify the impact on exposure of associated local factors such as weather conditions, the day and time, the type of road, bicycle path or lane used and the characteristics of the immediate environment around the cyclist's route.A total of 85 bicycle trips were analyzed, representing 422 km of travel and nearly 25 h of data collection. The mean exposure levels were 70.5 dB(A) for noise and 76 μg/m³ for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). A very weak negative correlation was found between the two measures of exposure (R² = − 0.07, p = 0.005).The results of the spatial regression models show that the morning commute and trips on collector roads and on-street bike lanes and shared bike lanes have significant and positive impacts on exposure to air pollution and noise. On the other hand, some factors are only significant for one or the other of the two types of exposure.