产业结构变化对中日韩经济周期协动性的影响

对中日韩三国产业结构变化与经济周期协动性的关系进行研究,研究结果表明,中日韩产业结构差异性越来越低,其主要原因是:中日之间的农林牧渔业结构性差异降低;中韩之间工业和服务业结构性差异降低;日韩之间农林牧渔业和工业结构性差异降低.这说明:农林牧渔业对中日和日韩的经济周期协动性产生更强的影响;工业对中日的经济周期协动性产生更弱的影响,而对中韩和日韩的经济周期协动性产生更强的影响;服务业对中韩的经济周期协动性产生更强的影响.     

中国与金砖国家贸易发展的前景

金砖国家(简称BRICs)以维持多年的高速经济增长而得名,即使在全球金融危机和"欧债危机"的接连冲击下,中国、印度、俄罗斯和巴西这四个金砖经济体和其他的新兴市场国家却依然保持了突出的增长势头,成为世界经济的新引擎和增长的亮点。在金融危机阴霾未散而"欧债危机"风险不减的双重压力下,中国对外贸易增长速度大幅下滑,与发达经济体之间贸易萎靡不振,但与金砖国家和新兴     

中日经济政策协调性对经济周期协动性的影响

随着中日两国的经济联系越来越密切,两国之间的经济周期协动性也日益增强.分析表明,财政政策和货币政策协调性对中日两国的经济周期协动性产生了重要的并且是正向的影响,之所以存在这种正向影响主要是由于中日两国都采取了反周期的财政政策和货币政策,另外经济政策本身的执行能力也是一个不容忽视的因素.因此中国在调控宏观经济的过程中,应该关注日本的财政政策和货币政策的取向.     

东亚经济周期协动的研究

本文认为,东亚经济周期的波动较大,周期的同步性和协动性较低,并且低于欧盟的协动程度。而且从东亚的次区域进行考察,东亚并不存在明显的几个同步的经济周期的次区域,只是东盟之间存在经济周期的长期协整关系和短期的调整机制。因此,从最优货币区理论的经济周期一体化标准看,东亚组成货币联盟的成本较高。     

金砖国家参与全球经济治理的基础与战略北大核心CSSCISSCI

现有全球经济治理体系主要由西方发达国家主导,但随着新兴经济体的崛起以及美欧危机的相继爆发,以金砖国家为代表的新兴经济体参与全球经济治理的实力和愿景愈加增强。金砖国家已经成为全球经济治理的重要力量,在2008-2015年全球经济增量中贡献率高达69.48%,金砖峰会也成为务实合作的新平台,金砖国家开发银行的成立标志着金砖合作进一步深化。2008年国际金融危机以来,逆全球化思潮愈演愈烈,对金砖国家来讲既是机遇也是挑战。金砖国家在推动全球经济治理改革的过程中,一是要立足本国发展要求,做实金砖合作;二是要在G20框架内,防止逆全球化进一步蔓延;三是存量改革与增量创新并重,渐进式推动全球治理的改革进程。     

1970-2011年东亚主要国家(地区)与世界经济周期协动性研究--基于H-P滤波法的计量检验北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文实证结果表明:东亚主要国家和地区尚未脱离世界主周期运行,其中除中国与印尼外,东亚其他国家(地区)存在共同周期,中国与世界经济周期的反向波动明显,但与东亚国家(地区)存在较强的协同波动趋势;新兴工业化国家在本文设定的三个时间段中表现不一;东盟四国存在次区域经济周期,而且随着时间推移,其协动性在逐渐加强。东亚国家包括中国在内,应抓住机遇,实现新一轮的经济增长。     

刊首语北大核心CSSCISSCI

为迎接金砖国家领导人第九次会晤,见证金砖合作的“中国时刻”,2017年2月至5月,《亚太经济》杂志社与广东省新兴经济体研究会共同组织专家学者,围绕金砖国家合作问题开展调研并撰写学术论文,择优选取26篇,形成《金砖国家研究专刊》。根据研究主题和内容,共分为金砖国家与全球治理、金砖国家合作机制、金砖国家与“一带一路”、金砖国家可持续发展、金砖国家经济研究（经济合作、贸易、金融）以及金砖国家纵横等六个专题。     

中国敲开世界阿里巴巴山洞的智慧之源

让人瞩目的"金砖五国",就像是古老波斯王国传说里的"芝麻开门"的魔咒,让中国与世界相通,联系得更加紧密。从金砖四国到金砖五国,这个来自国际新兴经济体的力量,又一次得到了加强。在世界经济总体呈现继续复苏的态势下,金砖国家成为世界上主要发展中国家和新兴经济体,印度工商联合会前会长拉詹·巴蒂·米塔尔表示,当今世界重要的经济体都在走"集合"路     

中国敲开世界阿里巴巴山洞的智慧之源

<正>让人瞩目的"金砖五国",就像是古老波斯王国传说里的"芝麻开门"的魔咒,让中国与世界相通,联系得更加紧密。从金砖四国到金砖五国,这个来自国际新兴经济体的力量,又一次得到了加强。在世界经济总体呈现继续复苏的态势下,金砖国家成为世界上主要发展中国家和新兴经济体,印度工商联合会前会长拉詹·巴蒂·米塔尔表示,当今世界重要的经济体都在走"集合"路     

中国与新兴经济体的贸易、投资及战略合作

随着部分发展中国家经济的快速发展,新兴经济体这一概念逐渐流行,并迅速成为经济研究中的热点。“新兴经济体”在现实中更多地被界定为少数几个国家组合成的具有特定称谓的集团,如“金砖四国”和“基础四国”。本文选择“金砖四国”加上南非这五个国家作为新兴经济体的代表。     

Low-income countries’ linkages to BRICS: Are there growth spillovers?

This paper employs a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate business cycle transmission from BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to LICs through trade, FDI, technology, and exchange rates channels. Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and BRICS have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. The estimation results show that there are indeed significant direct spillovers from BRICS to LICs.     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

Specialization and Business Cycle Co-Movement in the Euro Area

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper explores whether similarities in production structures have been an important determinant of business cycle co-movement in the Euro Area. We constructed an...     

金砖国家多边经济合作的新趋势

"金砖国家"正在推动改革世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构,倡导多边主义和国际关系民主化,维护发展中国家的权益。在建立国际经济新秩序过程中,"金砖国家"致力于创立多元化和更加稳定的国际货币体系,"金砖国家"对促进发展和世界经济复苏做出了贡献。"金砖国家"将在保持世界经济稳定方面发挥更重要的作用。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNCHRONISATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WITH THE WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE

Globalisation brought about worldwide changes, including economic and financial integration between countries. The objective of this paper is to establish if there is synchronisation between developed and developing countries with the world cycle. Research results show that business cycles have become less volatile after globalisation, but there is not much consensus on whether business cycles have become less or more synchronised since globalisation. Little research has been done on co‐movement between emerging markets, such as South Africa, and the world business cycle. This paper derives common factors for developed and developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to output, consumption and investment data, which represents the countries' business cycles. The empirical analysis shows co‐movement between some countries and the world business cycle (G7 countries as proxy). The results suggest that there are idiosyncratic and globally common shocks, which play different roles over time in different countries. The paper goes on to suggest that there are clear differences in how developed and emerging markets co‐move with the world business cycle. A key finding is that the co‐movement between developing economies and the world business cycle has increased since globalisation. This research also confirms previous research that most economies follow the world business cycle when large shocks – such as the recent economic downturn – occur. This has implications for forecasting the business cycle, especially in times of economic turmoil.     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the relationship between trade intensities and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia and Europe (EU-15). It extends the work of Shin and Wang, 2004, Shin and Wang, 2005 by providing a comparative perspective between East Asia and Europe. The paper finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in both regions. The paper also supports the hypothesis that the relationship between trade intensity and output co-movement is stronger in East Asia than in Europe. The major policy implication of this finding is that East Asia needs to further strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination within the region.     

中国内地与香港经济周期的区制依赖协同性分析——纳入美国经济影响的实证

本文运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的区制依赖特征以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行了分析。实证结果不仅证实两地经济周期的协同性存在依赖于经济周期区制状态的门限性质,而且显示:两地经济周期的正向协同性,隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响;当剥离出美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。在此背景下,促进中国内地与香港经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

Role of China in the development of trade and FDI cooperation with BRICS countries

BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) over the next 50 years could become the driving force in the world economy. They have the huge joint potential and wide opportunities. Further growth of their economies requires creation of their closer partnership in trade and investments. China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group. Trade and investment cooperation of BRICS countries is a new paradigm of the formation of their economic growth. This problem is important, but still insufficiently studied and not enough reflected in the economic researches. For the first time, author developed and tested the methodology of the determining the Intra-BRICS potential of trade and investment cooperation and getting the synergistic effect of the economic interaction of BRICS countries. Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China.     

金砖国家汇率制度演进研究——兼论危机前后金砖五国汇率表现

在发达经济体遭遇债务和高失业困扰、经济增长乏力的背景下,新兴经济体经济依然呈现快速增长、经济规模不断扩大的发展态势。以金砖五国为代表的新兴经济体在全球舞台上的地位得到提升。但是,相比第一、第二产业的强势发展,这些后起之秀在金融等软实力产业方面的表现相对较弱。随着全球化进程的推进,汇率作为一国对外交换的主要制度,成为影响国内经济稳定发展的关键问题。本文分析了金砖国家汇率制度演进的过程,总结其中的经验与教训,并对危机前后这五个国家主要汇率的变动进行了比较,以期为中国汇率制度的安排提供参考与借鉴。     

Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries

As Korea increases its trade within Asia, it is becoming more and more integrated with the other economies in the region. Theoretically, increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. By using data for 12 Asian economies, this paper finds that intra-industry trade is the major channel by which the business cycle of Korea becomes synchronized with that of other Asian economies, although increased trade itself does not necessarily lead to close business cycle coherence.