Institutions and public investment: an empirical analysis

This paper investigates the effect of institutional quality on the levels, volatility and quality of public investment. Our findings suggest an inverse relationship between public investment levels and institutional quality, supporting the idea that governments use public investment as a vehicle for rent seeking. We also find that lower quality of governance increases the volatility of public investment. Finally, we provide some tentative evidence of a positive relationship between institutional quality and the quality of infrastructure. Policymakers who aim to reduce infrastructure needs through capital spending should take measures to strengthen institutional capacity to manage public investments.     

Japan

Monthly indicators suggest that the momentum in exports and industrial production improved in Q1. And we expect a weaker currency and a gradually improving outlook for global trade – led by Chinese demand – to continue to help exports. Business investment is also set to improve, as corporate profits recover, albeit growth is likely to be bumpy given ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Trump's policies. Fiscal and monetary policy will remain supportive. With little evidence that elusive demand‐pull pressures will boost inflation, we expect BoJ to maintain its current monetary policy stance over 2017–18, while government infrastructure spending is set to rise.     

Demographic shift, relative costs and the allocation of local public consumption in Norway

Local government responses to shifting demand and supply conditions are investigated. The desired allocation of local public consumption is determined in a voter group decision model where different age groups compete for services within an exogenous budget constraint. The model is implemented in an AIDS demand system built into a partial adjustment framework. The estimates indicate that the dramatic shift in the age composition of the population from the young to the elderly during the period studied has led to higher educational spending per pupil and less health care services per elderly. Age groups in decline are able to resist reallocations and gain in terms of spending per head.     

Investment in a New Technology as a Signal of Firm Value Under Regulatory Opportunism

We examine the question of whether a regulated firm that makes a long-term investment in infrastructure can credibly signal its private information regarding the future demand for its output to the capital market. We show that necessary conditions for a separating equilibrium in which the magnitude of investment signals high future demand may include a low degree of managerial myopia, large variability of future demand, a lenient regulatory climate, and low sunk cost. Our model suggests that in estimating valuation models of regulated firms it is important to separate firms into two groups: firms for which a separating equilibrium is likely to obtain and firms for which the equilibrium is likely to be pooling. The market value of a firm in the first group is positively correlated with its level of investment, but uncorrelated with the level of actual demand, whereas for the second group the opposite holds.     

Don't rely on public investment to save the day

• ▀ We think public investment in the advanced economies should be increased, but we're also sceptical that, on its own, it can save economies from recession in the event of further negative shocks.
• ▀ Deteriorating infrastructure and low bond yields make a compelling case for sustained increases in public investment. And given the shortage of safe assets and the global savings glut, higher government borrowing seems unlikely to have big negative repercussions for private sector borrowers.
• ▀ But the scope for a sustained and aggressive rise in public investment to counter shocks is limited. Even when funds are plentiful, governments often struggle to meet capital spending targets due to other constraints.
• ▀ Spikes in public investment during downturns typically dry up the capital pipeline, leading to falling investment further ahead. As a result, it's harder to sustain increases in investment, compared to other government spending.

     

Housing as a Means of Sustainable Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia

This paper addresses the economic crisis in Southeast Asia as it effects the housing sector there. Our basic argument is that the lower end of the formal housing market sector (worker housing) provides the best opportunity to restore productive employment activity while addressing basic housing needs. We call for a range of policy measures to support this outcome, based in part on the recent experience in Japan with declining real estate markets. The policies include limited subsidies, guarantees and insurance for housing loans, along with a downward indexing of housing loans, strategic infrastructure investment and promotion of local building materials. These measures are necessary under the current circumstances of deficient aggregate demand. The key is to target demand increments where they are most likely to meet the basic need for shelter while generating productive market-based activity.     

Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets

This paper studies entry and exit decisions in markets whose demand alternates between growth and decline phases at uncertain times. We introduce a stochastic process that captures these features of random market evolution, and we provide key mathematical results related to first passage times which make the characterization of entry and exit behavior quite simple and straightforward (even when the process is subject to an endogenously determined upper or lower barrier). We characterize entry and exit patterns in a dynamic competitive equilibrium, and we show why our results differ from those obtained if demand follows a diffusion process (e.g., a Geometric Brownian Motion). Despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has a continuous sample path in both cases, we demonstrate in our setting that positive rates of entry and exit discontinuously fall to zero owing to informational overshooting. Another advantage of our framework is that it can explain discontinuities in firm values even if sample paths are continuous. Our framework is also amenable to empirical implementations (as we show using Corts’ 2008 offshore oil drilling application), and to an intuitive interpretation of optimal (dis) investment rules based on Bernanke’s (1983) “bad news principle of irreversible investment.”     

Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications

Using quarterly data for the United States, the evidence differentiates the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks to government spending around an anticipated steady-state trend over time. While interest rates increase in the face of expansionary government spending shocks, there is no evidence of a reduction in the face of contractionary shocks. Consequently, the increased government spending crowds out private investment. Moreover, there is evidence of a reduction in private consumption as agents anticipate a future increase in taxes to finance the increased government spending. As a result, output growth and price inflation are decreasing despite expansionary government spending shocks, on average, over time. In view of this evidence, public finance considerations ought to dominate attempts to stimulate demand using government spending near full-equilibrium capacity utilization in the economy. In contrast, contractionary government spending shocks are not offset by an increase in private spending. Hence, demand contraction is pronounced, slowing output growth and price inflation in the face of a reduction in government spending. The implication is that concerns over the pronounced contractionary effects of a reduction in government spending ought to dominate public finance considerations near full-equilibrium.     

The measurement of the gains or losses to an enterprise through relative price changes: The terms-of-trade effect and real income

This paper provides a framework for measuring the terms-of-trade effect for an enterprise. This effect is the impact on the organization of changes in input to output prices as well as in the prices of goods and service upon which the income is utilized. The measurement of the effect is outlined with illustrative data and applied to the German Telecom sector, which has suffered particularly badly through adverse relative price changes. The case study of the German Telecom sector is also used to introduce the concept of real income. The framework advocated is argued to be particularly useful, since it allows not only the effects ex post of relative price movements to be evaluated, but also the effects ex ante of particular spending scenarios to be simulated (for example, investment). As such, it should be a useful addition to the ‘toolbag’ of managerial economists.     

我国物流运输基础设施BOT模式融资问题研究

在物流系统中,物流基础设施包括运输基础设施、通信基础设施和商业基础设施三个方面.物流运输基础设施是指道路、铁路、港口、机场和物流中心等,在物流体系的建设中起着基础性的作用.完善的物流基础设施,特别是运输物流基础设施,需要大量的公共资金的投入,但国家的基建资金有限,单纯的国家财政投入显然不能满足物流需求的增长.因此,采用BOT方式进行物流交通基础设施融资,可以不通过财政拨款进行物流运输基础设施建设,使资金缺乏的情况得以解决.     

The impacts of education spending and finance reform on manufacturing property shadow values: a cost function approach

The effects of court-ordered education finance reform on property values and residential choice have received increasing attention in recent years (Fischel 2001). However, little attention has been focused on the effects of education finance reform on manufacturing sector property values within an optimizing framework. This is pursued here by modeling education expenditures and education finance reform as “free” variables to manufacturing firms in a cost function model together with input demand equations. This framework is applied to panel data on manufacturers’ capital (building and structures) stocks for the 48 continental US for 1982–1996 to estimate implicit (shadow) values to the manufacturing sector of education spending and school finance reform. On average, school finance reform lowers the implicit value of manufacturing firms’ stock of buildings and structures capital, while greater education spending lowers manufacturing variable costs.

THE IMPACT OF ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ON EDUCATION SPENDING: A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF UNITED STATES SCHOOL DISTRICTS

In the public finance literature it is well understood that a community's spending can be affected by neighboring communities’ spending. It is relatively straightforward to see why these spillovers exist. For example, if a school district increases its spending on public education, this could affect the spending level of neighboring school districts. This paper uses spatial analysis to test the hypothesis that a school district's ethnic heterogeneity affects support for public education. Using a Spatial Lag Model and a national panel of U.S. school districts, I find that spatial dependence does exist in the data and that ethnic heterogeneity is negatively related to school district spending.     

Estimates of the demand for medical care under different functional forms

We estimate price and income elasticities from a linear, log-linear, and the almost ideal demand model (with and without an adjustment for selectivity bias) in an effort to show that special attention should be paid to the underlying assumptions of consumer behaviour when estimating a medical care demand model. The literature on medical care utilization is extended by incorporating two major components of spending as separate demands in a system of medical care spending. We find that estimates of elasticities vary depending on the functional form of the estimating equation, thus questioning the usefulness for policy purposes of single estimates of elasticities.     

Investment: A Worldwide Boom

Investment is booming: not only in the UK but also in the US, Japan and in Europe. In this Briefing Paper we seek to understand why this is happening – a global phenomenon clearly requires a global not a local explanation – and to consider whether the boom will continue. To this end (and not in order to discriminate between alternative theories of investment), we examine the main theories of investment and show that recent developments are consistent with models based on the accelerator, or which emphasize the cost of finance or which depend upon stock market valuation effects. And, no matter which theory holds, the implication is the same: investment will weaken in 1989 and this is an important element in our forecast of slower world and UK growth next year.
But there is an alternative view, which implies a more optimistic outlook. The theories which we consider are essentially cyclical: they focus on the key role of (volatile) investment spending in the business cycle. It may well be that the present surge in investment is a long-tern, structural phenomenon reflecting either a shift in the pattern of world demand or the spread of computer-based technology, which has raised the efficiency of investment. In this case, and notwithstanding this year's surge in investment, tighter monetary policy and the stock market crash, the present boom in investment may have a lot further to run.     

价值工程在高校后勤基建多项目投资评估中的应用

近年来随着国家教育投入加大,高等院校办学条件不断提高,高校后勤基建可做建设项目越来越多,怎样科学选择项目、使资金发挥最佳效益显得尤为重要。为更好地控制投资、加强管理,我们提出把价值工程相关理论应用到高校后勤基建管理的多项目投资评估中,举实例说明其运用。     

Budget decision making in large public school systems

This paper reviews and discusses results of a study of the budget process in fourteen large city school districts. Topics covered include incremental decision making, the use of “ratios” and “norms” in school budgeting, public participation in budgeting, relevant structural arrangements of local government, and the influence of boards of education on the allocation of resources. Finally, implications for the improvement of school management practices in large school districts are discussed.     

Public infrastructure,input efficiency and productivity growth in the Canadian food processing industry

Canadian food processing is an important manufacturing industry, accounting for 13 percent of shipments. By its nature food processing depends on infrastructure capital. Our objective is to estimate infrastructure’s effects on input requirements, cost and productivity. The increase in capital and decrease in materials were respectively 2.5 and 3 times greater than the −0.07 infrastructure elasticity of labor. Infrastructure investment was cost-reducing by inducing reductions in employment and intermediate inputs. A 1 percent increase caused cost to decline by 0.16 percent. Infrastructure capital was a major contributor to productivity, annually contributing 0.5 percentage points. This was nearly double TFP growth.      

THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE RECOVERY

In the run up to the key Christmas period the talk is again of renewed weakness in consumer spending. Last month saw the volume of retail sales rise by only 0.1 per cent, and the annual rate of growth has now slowed to a shade over 3 per cent, down from its peak of 4.4 per cent back in July this summer. This weakness in consumer demand is also clearly being reflected in retail prices; with retailers discounting their prices to boost sales, headline inflation fell to 1.4per cent in October, while the underlying rate dropped to its lowest level for 25 years. This forecast release looks at the wider determinants of consumer spending, especially developments in the housing market. We argue that the slowdown in high street sales is a forbear of sluggish growth to come and that lower interest rates, if they materialise, are unlikely to have much of an impact. While consumer spending has been the driving force out of recession, for the recovery to be sustained, requires that exports and investment spending now take up the running.     

Debt financing and maintenance expenditure: Theory and evidence on government-operated toll roads in China

Transportation infrastructure is the foundation of economic growth, and the existence of high-quality roads is inseparable from their durable maintenance. However, the burden of heavy debt has brought risks to maintenance management and distorted resource allocation. This study builds a two-stage optimal theoretical model under different debt-financing constraints in China, who has the longest expressway mileage of any country in the world. We establish the two principles of “spend-and-debt” and “debt-and-spend” to demonstrate the substitution effect and the complementary effect of debt financing on maintenance, respectively. Furthermore, we use a time-varying differences-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of the financing of tollway bonds on maintenance and further discuss the mechanism. The results provide evidence that there is a significant improvement in the relationship between tollway bonds and maintenance expenditure, mainly due to the reduction of debt costs and the passive propelling of the government’s spending responsibility. Our proposed theoretical and empirical framework sheds new light on transportation infrastructure research. More specifically, the impetus for public expenditure comes from a decrease of the substitution effect, which not only alleviates the burden of debt scale on the public sector but also provides a reference for developing countries to balance infrastructure construction and maintenance.     

The impact of interest subsidies on the inter- regional allocation of capital: An econometric analysis for Belgium

Regionally differentiated interest rate subsidies are assumed to have on theoretical grounds both a generative and a redistributive impact on investment. In the conventional econometric approach, these effects are captured by the interest rate parameters that appear in regional investment functions which are usually estimated by single equation methods. This paper focusses on the redistributive impact of regional interest subsidies. The theoretical framework choosen for the analysis is that of a multiregional firm that maximizes overall profits subject to a capital cost constraint. The resulting allocation model for capital stock is similar to a system of consumer demand equations. It is estimated by a maximum likelihood method. The empirical results indicate that the redistributive effects of interest rate subsidies are significant.