人民币国际化的模式选择和路径安排

人民币国际化已成为经济生活的热门话题，人民币也成为许多国外经济学家对未来世界货币体系大胆预测中的热门“币材”，人民币国际化的成本与收益分析表明，收益明显大于成本，人民币国际化是大势所趋。从现实看，人民币国际化进程中具备一些有利条件，同时也存在诸多障碍。在目前的现实经济条件下，人民币国际化应走“弱经济——强制度”模式，遵循“人民币周边国际化一人民币亚洲化一人民币国际化”的渐进路径．并在资本项目可兑换、汇率制度弹性化和区域经济货币合作等方面做出具体的制度安排，最终实现人民币国际化。     

人民币国际化的“3322”战略

加快推进人民币国际化不仅是中国由经济大国走向经济强国和金融大国的重要战略,而且也是国际货币体系改革的重要组成部分.人民币国际化既是一个市场选择的自然发育过程,也是一个需要政府主导并精心规划不断推进的、复杂的系统工程,是一个循序渐进、分步骤、分阶段的实施过程.笔者把人民币国际化的阶段性目标和实现路径总结为人民币国际化"3322"战略: 第一个"3"即人民币国际化的地域"三步走"战略:周边化→区域化→国际化.具体步骤是:先人民币周边化,推进人民币在港澳台及越南、老挝、缅甸、尼泊尔、朝鲜、俄罗斯和蒙古等周边国家和地区的流通;再区域化,不断提升人民币在东盟国家及其他亚洲国家的地位,使之逐步成为区域性主导货币;最后逐步使人民币实现国际化,使之成为世界性货币之一.即以我国为圆心,不断扩大人民币信任和使用半径.     

人民币国际化的现实选择

人民币国际化己具备良好的基本条件。综合国际货币体系的形势和人民币的实际条件,人民币区域化是人民币国际化的现实目标。鉴于人民币国际化有着货币国际化和货币可兑换同步进行的特点,应采取“弱经济－强制度”组合模式。     

人民币区域化的问题分析及建议

随着中国在区域经济乃至全球经济中的地位和作用的不断提升,人民币的地位和影响也在日益增强,如何实现人民币国际化,成为重要的现实选择.人民币区域化是实现人民币国际化的必由之路.本文对现阶段国际金融动荡形势下推进人民币区域化遇到的阻碍因素进行分析,并对此提出可行建议.     

人民币国际化的制度安排与货币合作伙伴研究

本文运用广义定序Logit模型对货币合作伙伴支持人民币国际化制度安排的程度及其影响因素进行实证分析.结果表明,"是否持有人民币资产""金融发展水平"等货币合作伙伴内部因素,"是否与中国政府签订特惠贸易协定""是否与中国政府签订服务贸易协定"等双边经济关系因素,以及"是否与中国政府存在领土争端"等双边政治关系因素,对货币合作伙伴支持人民币国际化制度安排的程度具有显著影响.更进一步,本文运用Logit模型逐一分析了货币合作伙伴支持每类人民币国际化制度安排的可能性.回归结果表明,货币合作伙伴内部因素均正向地影响其支持人民币双边货币互换协议、人民币合格境外机构投资者制度、人民币境外清算制度的可能性,双边经济关系显著地影响其支持人民币互换协议和人民币合格境外机构投资制度的可能性,双边政治关系显著地影响其支持人民币互换协议和人民币境外清算制度的可能性.     

人民币国际化的进程

人民币国际化是改革开放后中国国家综合实力增强的重要表现,也是中国在世界经济舞台上参与度增强的重要表现。人民币国际化既是一个由市场选择、自然形成的过程,也是一个由政府主导、精心规划的政策推动过程。长期以来,学术界对推进人民币国际化进程的呼声很高,使之成为近年来经济学界的热点问题。如何评价人民币国际化的现实处境?未来人民币国际化会沿着什么路径发展?在本期"名家论坛"中,本刊邀请贺力平教授、石建勋教授和黄梅波教授就人民币国际化进程中的问题展开研讨。他们不仅站在学     

亚洲区域货币合作与人民币国际化的路径选择

人民币国际化是中国对外经济贸易联系不断增强的必然要求,又是一个长期渐进的过程.本文从亚洲区域货币合作的角度,分析了人民币国际化的现实基础与路径选择,进而为人民币国际化提供新的思路.     

人民币结算试点政策与人民币国际化

人民币的国际化对我国经济增长具有积极意义,我国也进行跨境贸易人民币结算试点的搭建,笔者通过分析人民币贸易结算中存在的现实问题,为人民币国际化过程提出建议。     

人民币跨境结算与人民币国际化探讨分析

人民币跨境结算与人民币国际化一直是世界经济领域中一个兼具现实和理论意义的前沿课题,而且人民币国际化现在是各界普遍关注的一个热点问题。在这样的背景下研究人民币跨境结算与人民币国际化变得尤其重要。而相关数据现实,人民币跨境结算对人民币国际化起到巨大的推动作用。所以本文就人民币跨境结算和人民币国际化作了比较简要的分析,就跨国贸易结算推动人民币国际化的难点进行了阐述,并提出了一些促进人民币国际化发展的相关建议。     

稳妥推进人民币国际化的新路径

随着国际金融危机的冲击和影响加深,人民币国际化的呼声日高,相关的研究增多.但笔者认为人民币的完全自由兑换和国际化并非短期内就可实现,需要具备相应的条件,否则对中国经济金融的稳定发展将带来不利的影响.在实施步骤上,可先行推进人民币的"国际可接受性",提高非居民对人民币的普遍接受范围和程度,从而体现中国在人民币国际化进程中的主动性、可控性和渐进性,为人民币的完全可兑换和国际化赢得更多的时间和空间,且避免承担过多的国际社会责任,减少制度变迁的成本,不失为一条新的路径.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.