市场与政府:美国实际与中国选择

市场与政府的关系到底是二元对立抑或互补平衡?西方学界内部对之一直存在较大的分歧.本文以宏观政策为主线,通过解构中美两国经济崛起的历史,探讨市场与政府的关系.研究表明,美国政府在经济重塑、危机应对等方面,都发挥了主导作用;美国在布雷顿森林体系建立之后,才真正意义上实行了贸易自由;即使是后里根时代,政府在经济发展中的作用也...     

世界经济再平衡和美国套利

美国次贷危机引发了席卷全球的金融危机,长期的低利率货币政策和赤字财政政策是引发美国次贷危机的主要原因。贸易保护和美元贬值将是美国未来减少贸易赤字和刺激经济复苏的重要政策取向,在所谓世界经济"再平衡"过程中美国将会实现双向套利。作为持有大量美元外汇资产的美国最大逆差国,中国应该保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定,逐步减持美元债券,加快生产与贸易结构调整,推动国际经济体制和国际金融体系的改革。     

关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。     

The effect of intellectual property rights on international trade and investment

The Effect of Intellectual Property Rights on International Trade and Investment. — The widespread debate regarding extended recognition of intellectual property rights across borders has not been matched by empirical investigation regarding the effect of such international recognition of intellectual property as exists in the status quo. In this paper, the effects of membership in intellectual property treaties is investigated in the context of U.S. exports, foreign affiliate sales, and flows of royalties and license fees. Membership in intellectual property treaties increases the flows of payments and receipts for intellectual property as long as domestic patent protection is sufficiently strong. U.S. parents export more to subsidiaries in countries which do not adhere to such treaties, but their impact on arms’-length exports and foreign investment is minimal.     

全球金融变革与中国国际金融战略构想

后危机时代,国际货币体系多元化的趋势不可逆转,美国的金融模式亦面临严重挑战。中国的经济大国地位需要大国金融的支撑。中国金融发展的战略目标是构建新的全球性金融中心。人民币国际化是新的全球性金融中心形成的前提,而金融市场特别是资本市场的开放和大发展则是金融中心建设的关键。     

美国金融监管漏洞对我国金融法建设的启示

由美国次贷危机而导发的金融危机自美国本土向全球蔓延,严重危害着全世界的金融安全和稳定,对全球经济也造成不可估计的损伤。然而这次金融危机的出现从深层暴露了美国金融市场的不稳定和松乱,其直接原因还是要归咎于美国金融政策的过度宽松和监管体系散漫。鉴于这次国际金融市场的动荡和金融危机的损害,我国理当有所借鉴,有所警惕,以此为例检测我国金融市场和金融法规体系,以期达到完善法律、稳定市场。     

A Global Shortage of Safe Assets: A New Triffin Dilemma?

A number of researchers have claimed that the international monetary and financial system faces a Triffin dilemma in a new fiscal form. In particular, there is said to be a dilemma between satisfying the world’s demand for safe assets and maintaining the solvency of the issuer of such safe assets. On one horn of the dilemma, global deflation threatens if highly creditworthy sovereigns like the U.S. Treasury do not satisfy emerging market demand. On the other horn, a loss of creditworthiness of the issuer threatens as its government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio rises to satisfy fast-growing global demand. This article suggests that the analogy drawn with the original Triffin dilemma is not tight since the safe asset dilemma does not have a clear cross-over point into instability. This paper casts empirical doubt on the claim that such a dilemma exists. On the demand side, emerging market central banks have actually turned to selling safe assets in the last several years, as against forecasts for an ongoing precautionary accumulation. U.S. Treasury yields have actually risen above those on generic private instruments, the opposite of the predicted widening spread of risky over safe yields. On the supply side, a substantial fraction of U.S. dollar reserve assets is invested in instruments other than U.S. Treasury securities. Reserve managers find safe assets among obligations issued by supranationals, national agencies and even large banks, which enjoy varying degrees of governmental support. Thus, demand for safe assets looks less secular than cyclical and the supply of safe dollar assets does not depend solely on U.S. fiscal deficits.     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

开放政府采购市场的理论与实践

2012年是中国加入GPA(即WTO诸边协议《政府采购协议》的简称)谈判的关键时期。与GPA成员国相比,中国政府采购市场开放实践起步较晚,但基于博弈论和竞争优势论的政府采购市场开放理论,已支持了政府采购的国际化趋势,在此基础上,中国政府采购市场开放实践将进一步展开。而谈判中的不确定性因素,则是影响中国政府采购市场开放进程的关键。     

国际货币体系的现状与发展

2008年席卷全球的金融危机使得改革现有国际货币体系的呼声日益高涨。现有的国际货币体系是以美元为世界储备货币基础的体系。本文从国际货币体系的演变以及现行国际货币体系的现状出发,来阐明现行国际货币体系的弊端以及国际货币体系发展的方向,并明确国际货币体系的改革是一个漫长的、渐进的过程。     

经济萎缩下关于中国汽车自主品牌发展之路的探讨

2008年9月10日,雷曼第三季度巨亏39亿美元,德意志银行无意收购雷曼。11日,雷曼兄弟股价下跌40%。由此为开端,金融市场的信任危机引发全球金融海啸的到来。而实体经济由于失去金融后盾,全球市场进入衰退期。相对影响较小的中国市场,成为了国际大型集团的救命稻草。中国汽车行业中相对弱小的自主品牌如何在当今已经竞争激烈的市场中继续发展、壮大?是机会还是厄运?     

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.     

出版企业境外投资的国别风险分析与应对--以F出版公司收购美国P公司为例

近年来,我国不少出版企业开始将境外市场纳入自身发展版图,境外投资成为出版企业国际化经营的重要手段。如何科学分析国别风险,合理防控风险,是我国出版企业需要面对的重要课题。本文以F出版公司收购美国P公司为例,分析并购发生前后美国的政治、经济和文化等方面的风险变化情况,梳理F出版公司的应对举措,为我国出版企业管控境外投资风险提出建议。     

A CGE analysis of the impact of trade liberalization between the U.S. and Mexico

This study examines the effects of free trade between the U.S. and Mexico on the sectoral trade balance of the U.S. The empirical findings indicate that free trade would benefit the overall trade balance of the U.S., but the benefit will be small in the near to medium term for two reasons. First, there is a huge disparity between the economic sizes of the two countries. Second, a sizable share of Mexican exports already enter the U.S. under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or at low rates under maquiladora production-sharing arrangements. The relatively low tariff rates already in effect allow most of the benefits of trade between the U.S. and Mexico to be realized and therefore limit the potential benefits to the U.S. from free trade.     

Struggling against apartheid: The use of economic sanctions on South Africa

Conclusion It is clear that the United States is in a dominant position in relation to South Africa’s economy, which has an economic climate working against its decision to be isolated from world opinion. The apartheid policies have produced an economy that is severely distorted by its having a restricted market for its industrial products, a critical shortage of skilled labor, a high level of structural unemployment, a high and increasing military budget, and by its support of an economically unviable Bantustan system. These distortions, combined with record balance of payments deficits and a net disinvestment of foreign funds, have resulted in currency outflows that were covered by the United States providing decisive support for a $1.1 billion loan from the IMF. Contrary to the impression that has been promoted by the South African government, S.A. mineral exports are not crucial to the United States. However, South Africa does depend upon the United States for its export market of these minerals, which are essential for providing the necessary funds for governmental expenditures and foreign exchange that are needed in order to support its high import content industries. The large percentage that exports have in S.A.’s gross national product increases this vulnerability. Thus, if we look at the evidence, it is clear that the United States has viable sanctions that it can implement against South Africa’s inhuman political and social policies. Although the United States has these leverages it refuses to utilize them, even though it would be in its interest to do so. It is vital that those persons who are genuinely concerned about human rights and the apartheid system apply whatever pressure is necessary to force the U.S. government to immediately utilize these leverages in the form of sanctions that would force the S.A. government to change its policies. The black community must take the responsibility for leading this effort.     

中国基金公司离“走出去”还有多远

南方全球精选配置基金的发行标志着中国基金业向国际化进程迈了一大步,初步实现了投资环节的国际化.基金产业国际化的另外一个方向--如何实现基金销售环节的国际化,即基金公司在海外销售共同基金,募集海外投资者的资金这个问题已然摆在了我们面前.但是由于中国特殊的国情,我国的基金公司存在一些天然的缺陷.文章通过对基金公司内部管理水平、投研能力和风险控制水平的差距分析来分析中国基金公司离销售"走出去"还有多远.     

The arms trade game: from laissex-faire to a common defence policy

Multinational arms export control has been the subject of discussionin a variety of fora, from the United Nations through to theWassenaar group of arms producers. It is widely recognised thatfree trade in arms can have negative externalities on nationalsecurity and there are benefits from the international coordinationof controls. However, there has been relatively little economicanalysis of these issues, partly because the market for armsis somewhat unusual. This paper develops a partial equilibriummodel of the international arms market and compares a varietyof possible regimes from laissez-faire at one extreme, to acommon defence policy at the other.     

金融危机后的国际能源格局及其对中国的影响

席卷全球的金融危机不仅使国际市场对能源资源的需求一度萎缩,同时也使能源产品的价格经历了一个"过山车"般的变化,从而推动了国际能源战略格局重新洗牌。对中国来说,金融危机后的国际能源新格局在给我们带来挑战的同时,也为中国能源企业"走出去"创造了良好机遇。面对金融危机后的新形势,中国政府和能源企业果断抓住机遇,积极应对挑战。对内进一步深化能源体制改革与能源结构调整,对外积极实践"新能源安全观",通过扩大和深化国际能源合作,稳步推进国家能源安全战略。     

美国金融监管改革方案及其对我国的启示

全球金融危机的爆发,暴露出美国旧的金融监管体制漏洞百出。由此,2009年6月奥巴马政府出台了美国自上世纪30年代以来规模最大的金融改革方案。该方案不仅对于美国,而且对国际金融监管体系将产生重大影响,其中一些建议和措施尤其值得理论界关注和思考。本文追溯了美国金融监管体制改革的历史变迁,考察了美国现有金融监管体制的特点和缺陷,并结合此次金融监管改革方案的内容,深入分析其特征及存疑之处,并得出对完善我国金融监管体制的若干启示。     

美国国债危机的根源及出路

虽然美国债务危机还没有爆发,但目前的财政赤字和国债规模过大、财政收支结构的刚性特征均阻碍了其财政赤字状况的改善、美元的国际货币地位也非可以永久持续,这使美国国债的可持续性问题面临挑战。在解决方案上,短期内美国政府可以通过技术性违约或者债务货币化将政府债务延后或者隐性处理,但是其代价是巨大的。因此美国应当从中长期根本上解决债务问题,中期需要建立严格的财政制度;长期上则需要协调好各个产业的发展,寻找新的经济增长点。