Inventory Investment and the Empirical Phillips Curve

In this paper, we study the Calvo pricing models with finished goods inventory investment to demonstrate that the current inflation can be expressed as a function of the marginal cost of sales, not the marginal production cost, and expected future inflation. Under the assumption that the true aggregate marginal costs are not observable in actual data, we make use of equilibrium conditions for aggregate finished goods inventories to measure the time series of marginal costs, thereby leading to the construction of inflation series on the basis of the Phillips curve. Our results indicate the possibility of a successful fit of the empirical New Keynesian Phillips curve without relying on unit labor cost—a conventional measure of marginal production cost in the literature.     

The impacts of inventory in transfer pricing and net income: Differences between traditional accounting and throughput accounting

This research proposes the Theory of Constraints (TOC) throughput accounting (TA) as an alternative management control mechanism in an international transfer pricing setting. We compare TA with the traditional accounting method and demonstrate that the traditional method underestimate factors as demand variation and inventories, which affects decisions, such as moving production to an offshore plant. A detailed system dynamics model is built to simulate the production process in an offshore supply chain to compare the methods. The study aims to fill a gap in the management accounting studies and contribute to the understanding of international transfer pricing and their management controls, exploring more than just the tax savings, which are usually considered isolated from operational factors for supply chain (SC) offshoring decisions. Furthermore, we conduct a brief literature review, present the model and discuss the results. It has been observed that inventory levels are an important part of accounting, offshored supply chains, and transfer pricing. Traditional cost and accounting methods favour higher inventory levels, and they can overestimate net income results up to 70% – especially in higher demand variation scenarios – when compared to the throughput accounting.     

Strategic inventories under limited commitment

In a dynamic storable good market where demand changes over time, we investigate the producer's strategic incentives to hold inventories in response to the possibility of buyer stockpiling. The literature on storable goods has demonstrated that buyer stockpiling in anticipation of higher future prices harms the producer's profitability, particularly when the producer cannot commit to future prices. We show that the producer's inventories act as a strategic device to mitigate the loss from the lack of commitment. Our results provide a rationale for the producer's inventory behavior that sheds new light on the well‐documented empirical evidence about inventories.     

Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods

This paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor. The view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined. Both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force. In addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment, the paper illustrates a technology for maximum-likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations.     

A rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment

A critical roadblock to modeling inventories of finished goods has been the claim that the production and inventory decisions of a perfectly competitive firm are determined independently of each other. A basic goal of this study is to specify fundamental preferences of economic agents, technologies, constraints and market structures that are, in a rough way, capable of generating patterns of serial correlations and cross correlations between inventories and employment of factors of production that are consistent with those observed in the data. The claim is made that the time series for inventories, output and employment can, in principle, be interpreted as emerging from a well-specified dynamic, stochastic competitive equilibrium in which economic agents are assumed to form rational expectations about variables not included in their information sets. Inventories and employment will not be related in a direct way if and only if the price elasticity of demand for output is equal to infinity.     

库存控制在超市管理中的应用(英文)

超市和便利店的经营模式是常用的零售企业。为方便起见,我们选择超市作为研究对象,研究在超市管理库存应用程序的发明者,控制理论。为了保证正常的经营活动,超市需要一定的库存。因此,库存管理,成为超市配送中心的一个至关重要的问题。和合理的库存,确保供应和需求的超市管理。以加快资本的考虑,减少资本占用的库存,尽一切努力,以保持库存形式之间关系的合理比例,从而进一步使库存最小的成本。然而,所有的货物存储的库存策略需要大量的时间和金钱,这显然是不实际的经济建议。研究财务管理上,选择几个典型的文章,为居民的日常使用上正在工作的存储解决方案的代表。在此只对几种特殊商品库存管理,5月,根据ABC控制理论的文章,各种商品的分类,利用库存的各种存货策略。     

Inventory-driven costs

In the 199os, Hewlett-Packard's PC business was struggling to turn a dollar, despite the company's success in winning market share. By 1997, margins on its PCs were as thin as a silicon wafer, and some product lines hadn't turned a profit since 1993. The problem had everything to do with the PC industry's notoriously short product cycles and brutal product and component price deflation. A common rule of thumb was that the value of a fully assembled PC decreased 1% a week. In such an environment, inventory costs become critical. But not just the inventory costs companies traditionally track, HP found, after a thorough review of the problem. The standard "holding cost of inventory"--the capital and physical costs of inventory--accounted for only about 10% of HP's inventory costs. The greater risks, it turned out, resided in four other, essentially hidden costs, which stemmed from mismatches between demand and supply: Component devaluation costs for components still held in production; Price protection costs incurred when product prices drop on the goods distributors still have on their shelves; Product return costs that have to be absorbed when distributors return and receive refunds on overstock items, and; Obsolescence costs for products still unsold when new models are introduced. By developing metrics to track those costs in a consistent way throughout the PC division, HP has found it can manage its supply chains with much more sophistication. Gone are the days of across-the-board measures such as,"Everyone must cut inventories by 20% by the end of the year," which usually resulted in a flurry of cookie-cutter lean production and just-in-time initiatives. Now, each product group is free to choose the supply chain configuration that best suits its needs. Other companies can follow HP's example.     

Pricing and the psychology of consumption

Most executives know how pricing influences the demand for a product, but few of them realize how it affects the consumption of a product. In fact, most companies don't even believe they can have an effect on whether customers use products they have already paid for. In this article, the authors argue that the relationship between pricing and consumption lies at the core of customer strategy. The extent to which a customer uses a product during a certain time period often determines whether he or she will buy the product again. So pricing tactics that encourage people to use the products they've paid for help companies build long-term relationships with customers. The link between pricing and consumption is clear: People are more likely to consume a product when they are aware of its cost. But for many executives, the idea that they should draw consumers' attention to the price that was paid for a product or service is counterintuitive. Companies have long sought to mask the costs of their goods and services in order to boost sales. And rightly so--if a company fails to make the initial sale, it won't have to worry about consumption. So to promote sales, health club managers encourage members to get the payment out of the way early; HMOs encourage automatic payroll deductions; and cruise lines bundle small, specific costs into a single, all-inclusive fee. The problem is, by masking how much a buyer has spent on a given product, these pricing tactics decrease the likelihood that the buyer will actually use it. This article offers some new approaches to pricing--how and when to charge for goods and services--that may boost consumption.     

Sales and consumer inventory

Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in a large increase in the quantity sold. We explore whether the data support the hypothesis that these increases are, at least partly, due to demand anticipation: at low prices, consumers store for future consumption. This effect, if present, has broad economic implications. We test the predictions of an inventory model using scanner data with two years of household purchases. The results are consistent with an inventory model and suggest that static demand estimates may overestimate price sensitivity.     

Inventory investment and the cost of capital

We examine the relation between inventory investment and the cost of capital in the time series and the cross section. We find consistent evidence that risk premiums, rather than real interest rates, are strongly negatively related to future inventory growth at the aggregate, industry, and firm levels. The effect is stronger for firms in industries that produce durables rather than nondurables, exhibit greater cyclicality in sales, require longer lead times, and are subject to more technological innovation. We then construct a production-based asset pricing model with two types of capital, fixed capital and inventories, to explain these empirical findings. Convex adjustment costs and a countercyclical price of risk lead to negative time series and cross-sectional relations between expected returns and inventory growth.     

Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation

Why did the volatility of U.S. real GDP decline by more than the volatility of final sales with the Great Moderation in the mid‐1980s? One explanation is that firms shifted their inventory behavior toward a greater emphasis on production smoothing. We investigate the role of inventories in the Great Moderation by estimating an unobserved components model that identifies inventory and sales shocks and their propagation in the aggregate data. Our estimates provide no support for increased production smoothing. Instead, smaller transitory inventory shocks are responsible for the excess volatility reduction in output compared to sales. These shocks behave like informational errors related to production that must be set in advance and their reduction also helps explain the changed forecasting role of inventories since the mid‐1980s. Our findings provide an optimistic prognosis for a continuation of the Great Moderation, despite the dramatic movements in output during the recent economic crisis.     

The treatment of direct labor in cost/managerial texts

Cost/managerial textbook authors have typically defined and treated direct labor production costs as a pure variable cost that is proportionally related to the level of output. One implication of such treatment is that management will hire and fire workers as output levels vary. Historically, management did frequently adjust labor to reflect seasonal variations in sales and short-term changes in demand levels. This attitude was incorporated into the at-will employment rule.In the last few decades, the at-will employment rule has been successfully challenged in court. Other factors, such as the need for a highly trained work force and employment contract guarantees, have changed the nature of direct labor to that of a mixed or, in some cases, a fixed cost. In addition, at some highly automated plants, direct labor cost may be a small enough proportion of manufacturing cost to combine with overhead as a conversion cost.Accounting educators need to consider the effect this change may have on various managerial practices and methods. These include operational budgeting and cost-volume-profit analysis.     

Inventories,sales uncertainty,and financial strength

We investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms’ inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms’ financial strength. Using large panels of manufacturing firms from several European countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories. We also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms. Our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the adverse effects of uncertainty.     

The double jeopardy of sales promotions

The maturing of most consumer markets in the United States has put great pressure on manufacturers in their search for growth. They have concentrated on building sales and expanding share proportions in the stagnant markets with devices like niche products, product extensions, mergers, and international ventures. They have shifted emphasis to sales promotions at the expense of advertising. But promotions, when you come right down to it, mean price reductions. Trade promotions are almost always rebates, and consumer promotions are usually temporary price reductions or coupons. The cost in reduced profit, demonstrated mathematically through calculations of price elasticity, is severe. Besides, when the promotion is over, the manufacturer has not moved forward an inch in shoring up the brand franchise. Promotions bring volatile demand, whereas the producer seeks stable demand. By sustaining a brand image and building customer loyalty, on the other hand, theme advertising can stabilize demand. Moreover, this type of advertising is less likely than promotion is to invite destructive competitive retaliation. Calculation of the advertising elasticity of a brand indicates that sometimes even modest sales increases can produce healthy profit improvement. In a well-planned marketing campaign, there is often good reason to include trade or consumer promotion--to counter a leading competitor's moves, for example. But there is no point in carrying out wild swings at rivals in a struggle for market share. Mathematical techniques can aid the efficiency of marketing planning and put on a more rational basis the decision on where to put the dollars.     

Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices

The theory of storage says that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases. The authors test this hypothesis by examining the relative variation of spot and futures prices for metals. As the hypothesis implies, futures prices are less variable than spot prices when inventory is low, but spot and futures prices have similar variability when inventory is high. The theory of storage also explains inversions of “normal” futures-spot price relations around business-cycle peaks. Positive demand shocks around peaks reduce metal inventories and, as the theory predicts, generate large convenience yields and price inversions.     

On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices

Whether technological progress raises or lowers employment in the short run has been the subject of much debate in the recent years. We show that cross-industry differences in inventory holding costs, demand elasticities, and price rigidities potentially all affect employment decisions in the face of productivity shocks. In particular, the employment response to a permanent productivity shock is more likely to be positive the less costly it is to hold inventories, the more elastic industry demand is, and the more flexible prices are. Using data on 458 4-digit U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1958-1996, we find statistically significant effects of variations in inventory holdings and demand elasticities on short-run employment responses, but less conclusive evidence pertaining to the effects of measured price stickiness.     

Inventories and the automobile market

This article studies the within‐model‐year pricing, production, and inventory management of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that, for the typical vehicle, prices fall over the model year at a 9.0% annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate an industry model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. The model predicts that automakers' build‐to‐stock inventory management policy substantially influences the time series of prices and sales, accounting for four tenths of the price decline observed over the model year.     

Who Finances Durable Goods and Why It Matters: Captive Finance and the Coase Conjecture

We propose that, by financing their own product sales through captive finance subsidiaries, durable goods manufacturers commit to higher resale values for their products in future periods. Using data on captive financing by the manufacturers of heavy equipment, we find that captive‐backed models have lower price depreciation. The evidence is consistent with captive finance helping manufacturers commit to ex‐post actions that support used machine prices. This, in turn, conveys higher pledgeability for captive‐backed products, even for individual machines financed by banks. Although motivated as a rent‐seeking device, captive financing generates positive spillovers by relaxing credit constraints.     

国际结算和贸易融资风险的识别与控制

贸易融资较传统的流动资金贷款业务具有更大的市场适应能力.生产制造型企业贸易融资风险的主要影响因素有核心技术和装备情况、产品更新换代能力、国际品牌效应、人力成本.生产制造型企业资金流风险的主要影响因素有原材料采购与销售价格、结算方式、资产的流动性、盈利能力.贸易类企业融资风险的主要影响因素有上下游客户的稳定性、市场需求的稳定性、资金的可流动性.物流企业融资风险的主要影响因素有公司的收入及成本构成、应对市场价格变动的能力、上下游客户情况、企业的资金流.     

国际结算和贸易融资风险的识别与控制

贸易融资较传统的流动资金贷款业务具有更大的市场适应能力.生产制造型企业贸易融资风险的主要影响因素有核心技术和装备情况、产品更新换代能力、国际品牌效应、人力成本.生产制造型企业资金流风险的主要影响因素有原材料采购与销售价格、结算方式、资产的流动性、盈利能力.贸易类企业融资风险的主要影响因素有上下游客户的稳定性、市场需求的稳定性、资金的可流动性.物流企业融资风险的主要影响因素有公司的收入及成本构成、应对市场价格变动的能力、上下游客户情况、企业的资金流.