Consumers' quality choices during demand peaks

In a number of product categories, average prices decrease when demand exogenously increases. The literature disagrees on whether this effect is due to firms' reactions to high demand or to changes in consumer behavior. I propose a strategy that enables the identification of supply and demand movements by examining unpredictable and short-lived exogenous demand shocks. During these periods, firms do not have time to adjust pricing or advertising strategies, and most activity comes from changes in consumer behavior. My model shows that during periods of exogenous high demand, consumers migrate toward cheaper, lower-quality products. I focus on ice cream purchases, which have a seasonal peak during the summer and increase during less-predictable periods of unseasonably high temperatures. Using individual-level data, I test model implications and estimate structural parameters, finding evidence consistent with consumers' quality shifts. I also reject alternative supply-side theories' explanations for the main drivers of the observed price dynamics.     

Anti‐Competitive Interconnection: the effects of the elasticity of consumers' expectations and the shape of the network effects function

I find that interconnection might cause the market to be less competitive, and might lead to an increase in the price firms charge for their product. Absent interconnection, firms compete for a consumer for two reasons. The first reason is to obtain revenue from selling the product to a consumer (as in the case without network effects). The second reason is that by expanding the network by one more consumer, the product becomes more attractive to all other consumers. Interconnection eliminates the second reason—when firms interconnect, they are no longer concerned with consumers' following the crowd. I show that consumers and society might be worse off from interconnection. I focus on two factors that make the (post‐interconnection) price increase larger: consumer expectations that are highly sensitive to prices and consumers putting a high value on small increases in network size at the equilibrium market shares. Both of these factors make firms highly competitive, but only if the firms' products' networks are not interconnected.     

Dynamic Pricing,Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines

This paper uses a unique U.S. airlines panel data set to study empirically the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon. I estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears. I find that the price increases as the inventory decreases, and decreases as there is less time to sell. Consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment, demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales.     

Demand for coffee in Sweden: The role of prices, preferences and market power

There is a widespread belief that consumer coffee prices are high relative to bean prices and that lower consumer prices would lead to substantial increases in bean exports from Third-World countries. This issue is evaluated by analysing how retail prices, preferences and market power influence coffee demand in Sweden. A demand function is estimated for the period 1968–2002 and used, together with information on import prices of coffee beans, to simulate an oligopoly model. This approach gives estimates of the maximum average degree of market power and shows how coffee demand would react to reductions in marginal cost to its minimum level. The maximum level of market power is found to be low, but it generates large spreads between consumer and bean prices because the price elasticity has low absolute values. Moreover, the impact of a price decrease would be small because long-run coffee demand is dominated by changes in the population structure in combination with different preferences across age groups. Hence, a change to perfect competition would only have a negligible effect on bean imports.     

Applying Hedonic Pricing Models and Factorial Surveys at Parker Pen to Enhance New Product Success

Walking the path from new product concept to successful commercialization is a tightrope act. Product developers must carefully balance a variety of factors, including predictions of consumer price sensitivity as well as which combination of product attributes will be most valued by the intended market. A well-chosen mix of analytical tools can enhance a firm's chances of accurately predicting market demand. Chuck Tomkovick and Kathryn E. Dobie describe how the integration of two product attribute assessment techniques–hedonic pricing models and factorial surveys–allows product designers to more accurately gauge price sensitivity and market receptivity to new product designs. They also describe how these analytical tools were used to improve decision-making in product development at the Parker Pen Company, and they discuss the role these tools can play in facilitating the transition from concept to commercialization. Hedonic price analysis is an econometric method for determining the value purchasers place on attributes of existing products. In product development, factorial surveys are used to identify the value members of the target market place on new product concepts and prototypes. When used in combination with identified hedonic prices, the responses to a factorial survey allow product developers to predict consumer willingness-to-pay for various combinations of new product attributes. Following development of prototypes for two new product lines, product developers at the Parker Pen Company used hedonic pricing models and factorial surveys as a means for reducing demand uncertainty and for clarifying what consumers were willing to pay for various combinations of product attributes that were under consideration. The integration and use of these techniques involved a five-step process of target market identification, product attribute identification, hedonic price estimation, administering of the factorial survey, and determination of consumer willingness-to-pay. The results of these analyses allowed Parker Pen to better focus product development efforts on those design elements for which test market customers indicated both demand and willingness-to-pay. The Parker Pen Company found hedonic pricing and factorial surveys useful for predicting both the rate and the degree of change in consumers' marginal utility for specific product attributes. The usefulness of these techniques also extends beyond the early stages of new product conception. These techniques are helpful in the development and implementation of dynamic new product marketing mix strategies, including such elements as product design, pricing, channel selection, and promotion.     

Ordered search in differentiated markets

This paper presents an ordered search model in which consumers search both for price and product fitness. I construct an equilibrium in which there is price dispersion and prices rise in the order of search. The top firms in consumer search process, though charge lower prices, earn higher profits due to their larger market shares. Compared to random search, ordered search can induce all firms to charge higher prices and harm market efficiency.     

Prices,Profits, and Preference Dependence

We develop a new approach to discrete choice demand for differentiated products, using copulas to separate the marginal distribution of consumer values for product varieties from their dependence relationship, and apply it to the issue of how preference dependence affects market outcomes in symmetric multiproduct industries. We show that greater dependence lowers prices and profits under certain conditions, suggesting that preference dependence is a distinct indicator of product differentiation. We also find new sufficient conditions for the symmetric multiproduct monopoly and the symmetric single‐product oligopoly prices to be above or below the single‐product monopoly price.     

Austrian-style gasoline price regulation: How it may backfire

In January 2011, a price regulation was established in the Austrian gasoline market which prohibits firms from raising their prices more than once per day. Similar restrictions have been discussed in New York State and Germany. Despite their intuitive appeal, this article argues that Austrian-type policies may actually harm consumers. In a two-period duopoly model with consumer search, I show that under the regulation, firms will distort their prices intertemporally in such a way that their aggregate expected profit remains unchanged. This implies that, as some consumers find it optimal to delay their purchase due to expected price savings, but find it inconvenient to do so, a friction is introduced that decreases net consumer surplus in the market.     

Consumer Decision-making at an Internet Shopbot: Brand Still Matters

Internet shopbots compare prices and service levels at competing retailers, creating a laboratory for analysing consumer choice. We analyse 20,268 shopbot consumers who select various books from 33 retailers over 69 days. Although each retailer offers a homogeneous product, we find that brand is an important determinant of consumer choice. The three most heavily branded retailers hold a $1.72 price advantage over more generic retailers in head-to-head price comparisons. In particular, we find that consumers use brand as a proxy for retailer credibility in non-contractible aspects of the product and service bundle, such as shipping reliability.     

Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry

We simulate the price effects of several hypothetical mergers in the shelf-stable bottled juice industry. In doing so, we highlight the effects of consumer stockpiling on demand elasticity estimates and subsequent merger simulations. This task is complicated by a large number of choice alternatives within the bottled juice category. To address this challenge we employ a demand model based on the Distance Metric (DM) approach of Pinkse et al. (Econometrica 70:1111–1153, 2002). We find that merger simulations that do not account for consumer stockpiling behavior underestimate the permanent price changes that are likely to occur due to a merger.      

Waterfall Versus Sprinkler Product Launch Strategy: Influencing the Herd

A seller decides the price and sequence in which a product of unknown value is introduced to consumers. Consumers inspect the product before consumption and observe past prices and sales. Consumption at a high price is informative for later consumers as it indicates that the product is likely to be of high value. I show that on an average prices decrease over time. However, expected revenue on an average rises over time. For a high enough discount factor, I find that for extreme beliefs the firm introduces the product to all consumers but for intermediate values the product is introduced only to one consumer.     

Consumption Externalities and Diffusion in Pharmaceutical Markets: Antiulcer Drugs

We examine the role of consumption externalities in the demand for pharmaceuticals at both the brand level and over a therapeutic class of drugs. Externalities emerge when use of a drug by others affects its value, and/or conveys information about efficacy and safety to patients and physicians. This can affect the rate of market diffusion for a new entrant, and can lead to dominance of one drug despite the availability of close substitutes. We use data for H₂-antagonist antiulcer drugs to estimate a dynamic demand model and quantify these effects. The model has three components: an hedonic price equation that measures how the aggregate usage of a drug, as well as conventional attributes, affect brand valuation; equations relating equilibrium market shares to quality-adjusted prices and marketing levels; and diffusion equations describing the dynamic adjustment process. We find that consumption externalities influence both valuations and rates of diffusion, and that they operate at the brand and not the therapeutic class level.     

Estimation of the Effects of New Brands on Incumbents’ Profits and Consumer Welfare: The U.S. Processed Cheese Market Case

I estimate the effects of new brands on market competition and consumer welfare in the U.S. processed cheese market. I find that an observed increase in consumer welfare was attributable mainly to an increase in the number of brands in the sample market, while the price effect, which measures welfare change caused by adding new brands to existing brands, decreased welfare as the prices of the existing brands increased in a large portion of sample markets. The price increase was most pronounced among the introducers existing brands. I also find that the data used in the paper identify a significant enhancement of consumer welfare as a result of the change in product characteristics provided by new brands even if a large portion of welfare gain is explained by the assumption on the error term in the utility function.JEL classification: D40, D60, L13, L66, H20     

POSTING MULTIPLE PRICES TO REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSUMER PRICE SEARCH*

In a model of competition with imperfect consumer price information and incomplete price search, some consumers may end up comparing prices originating from the same supplier: either because one firm sets multiple prices or because a group of firms colludes. This leads to added monopoly power for these firms, and average prices in the mixed strategy equilibrium become higher. There is a shift in welfare from consumers to producers, both with exogenous and endogenous consumer search behaviour. However consumers might search more or less with multiple prices. The implications for the price‐setting equilibrium, competition policy and recent judgements are considered.     

Platform Price Parity Clauses and Consumer Obfuscation*

Several antitrust authorities have investigated platform price parity clauses around the world. I analyze the impact of these clauses when platforms design a search environment for sellers and buyers to interact. In a model where platforms choose the unit search cost faced by consumers, I show when platforms can profitably obfuscate consumers through high search costs. Then, I show that price parity clauses, when exogenously given, can increase or reduce obfuscation, prices, and consumer surplus. Finally, when price parity clauses are endogenous, they are only observed in equilibrium if they hurt consumers.     

Regulatory bias in the price structure of local telephone service

This article combines a discrete choice model of demand for residential local telephone access and an optimal price regulation model to estimate the welfare weights that state regulators implicitly place on consumers with different incomes and locations. I find no evidence of a bias towards rural consumers on average, but the relative weight on low income consumers in a geographic area can vary as a function of the proportions of rural and poor population and the political characteristics of the regulator. I also measure the welfare consequences of deviating from total consumer surplus maximization and disconnecting prices from costs.     

Estimating consumer surplus in the mobile telecommunications market: The case of Korea

This paper estimates consumer surplus in the Korean mobile telephone services (MTS) market. The Korean mobile telecommunications market has grown rapidly since 1997 when competition was introduced and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology was commercialized. Because consumer surplus is relevant to the controversy over establishing an appropriate price level between consumers and service providers, the need for a robust measurement of benefit from MTS is increasing. The measured net consumer surplus estimated by means of elasticities of demand reached about US$48.8 billion in the period 1996–2004 and the changes amounted to about US$8.8 billion during the same period. In particular, after competition was introduced into the market with an accompanying price decrease and increase in the number of subscribers, consumers have benefited greatly. Therefore, it can be inferred that a facility-based competition policy and the reduction in price of access such as handset subsidies all played a positive role in the early diffusion of MTS in Korea. The estimated consumer surplus in this paper does not include network externality (option externality); if this were considered, the total social welfare of the consumer would be larger.     

A two-sided model of paid peering

Internet users have suffered collateral damage in tussles over paid peering between large ISPs and large content providers. Paid peering is a relationship where two networks exchange traffic with payment, which provides direct access to each other’s customers without having to pay a third party to carry that traffic for them. The issue will arise again when the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) considers a new net neutrality order.We first consider the effect of paid peering on broadband prices. We adopt a two-sided market model in which an ISP maximizes profit by setting broadband prices and a paid peering price. We analytically derive the profit-maximizing prices, and show that they satisfy a generalization of the well-known Lerner rule. Our result shows that paid peering fees reduce the premium plan price, increase the video streaming price and the total price for premium tier customers who subscribe to video streaming services; however, the ISP passes on to its customers only a portion of the revenue from paid peering. ISP profit increases but video streaming profit decreases as an ISP moves from settlement-free peering to paid peering price.We next consider the effect of paid peering on consumer surplus. We find that consumer surplus is a uni-modal function of the paid peering fee. The paid peering fee that maximizes consumer surplus depends on elasticities of demand for broadband and for video streaming. However, consumer surplus is maximized when paid peering fees are significantly lower than those that maximize ISP profit. However, it does not follow that settlement-free peering is always the policy that maximizes consumer surplus. The peering price depends critically on the incremental ISP cost per video streaming subscriber; at different costs, it can be negative, zero, or positive.     

Price authority and information sharing with competing supply chains

We characterize the degree of price discretion that two competing manufacturers grant their retailers in a framework where demand is uncertain and privately observed by the retailers, while manufacturers only learn it probabilistically. In contrast with the consolidated vertical contracting literature, we assume that manufacturers cannot use monetary incentives to align the retailers’ incentives to pass on their unverifiable distribution costs to consumers. Our objective is to study how, in this context, an information-sharing agreement according to which manufacturers share their demand information affects prices, profits and consumer surplus. While equilibria with full price delegation never exist, regardless of whether manufacturers share information, partial delegation equilibria may exist with and without the exchange of information. These equilibria feature binding price caps (list prices) that prevent retailers from passing on their distribution costs to consumers, and are more likely to occur when manufacturers exchange demand information than when they do not share this information. Manufacturers profit from exchanging demand information when products are sufficiently differentiated, and retailers’ distribution costs are high enough. Yet, expected prices are unambiguously lower when manufacturers exchange demand information than when they don’t, making the information exchange beneficial to consumers.