中国出口贸易结构变迁及影响因素分析——基于技术附加值的视角

随着技术在产品竞争中作用的提升,用技术指标来衡量一国的贸易结构特征更加顺应当代贸易的发展趋势。本文以技术附加值原理作为识别贸易品技术附加值高低的理论基础,介绍了技术附加值的测算方法,分别对中国和贸易伙伴国进行了测算,结果显示,中国中高技术附加值产品出口比例最高,而且出口贸易技术结构呈现改善趋势。在对中国的出口贸易技术结构进行分析的基础上,对影响出口贸易技术结构的因素进行了分析,结果显示贸易伙伴国的经济波动对低技术附加值产品和中低技术附加值产品出口有较大的影响,但是对中高技术附加值产品和高技术附加值产品出口影响较小。     

比较优势理论在中日贸易中的体现——以工业制成品为例

本文通过对中日贸易结构的演变及中日贸易中的竞争力指数和显性比较优势指数的分析,从静态和动态两个层面分析了比较优势理论在中日贸易中的体现.本文指出中日贸易结构基本符合比较优势理论,中国在服装和杂项制品的出口中具有竞争优势,同时文中提出了进一步增强我国对日贸易竞争力的政策建议.     

中韩贸易结构新动态

中韩建交十五年来,两国间贸易规模持续高速增长,相互在对方国家的贸易地位不断上升,两国的贸易结构日益接近,逐渐由互补关系转向竞争关系.正是在这种背景下,本文基于产业发展是贸易之源的视角,在产业结构演变的重工业化、高加工度化和技术集约化等三个层面,分析了近年中国对韩国的出口主导产业,由轻工业品向重化工业产品转变,由低附加值产品向高附加值产品转变,由低技术产业向高技术产业转变,中韩贸易进入新的稳定发展阶段的新动向,并得出相应结论.     

中国制造业出口贸易利益的测算及影响因素研究

本文利用贸易附加值模型测算了我国制造部门及各行业在1994年-2008年间出口贸易利益水平,并在此基础上利用行业面板数据识别和验证了我国贸易利益的影响因素,从而为贸易利益的拓展与提升提供政策建议。本文得出的结论是：我国制造业近十几年来总出口附加值比率长期锁定在[30．31％,36．41％]的区间上,均值为32．98％。在细分行业中,那些加工贸易特征明显的产业,尤其是所谓的“高科技”产业的贸易附加值比重相对更低。这主要因为在全球生产分割的背景下,我国更多地是依靠劳动力的比较优势承接产品的加工组装环节。劳动生产率及劳动力成本仍然是影响贸易利益获取的重要因素,而要素禀赋结构变迁及技术进步等变量因素对贸易利益的促进效应尚不显著。     

服务贸易竞争力定量分析及竞争力提升对策

本文通过显性比较优势指数,竞争优势指数对我国服务贸易竞争力从总体和分行业进行定量分析,科学描述我国服务贸易当前的国际竞争力,进而运用Spss11.0软件对影响我国服务贸易竞争力的因素进行相关性分析,基于以上结论,根据迈克尔.波特的竞争优势理论,提出促进服务贸易出口能力,提高服务贸易整体竞争力的对策。     

中国与哈萨克斯坦双边贸易合作研究

本文基于中国与哈萨克斯坦的双边贸易规模和贸易结构,采用GL产业内贸易指数和显性比较优势指数(RCA),对中国和哈萨克斯坦的贸易分工模式和贸易竞争优势进行分析,发现两国通过产业间贸易的分工模式和各自发挥本国的比较优势,贸易合作具有较好的发展空间。     

产业内贸易视角下的美国电影产业国际贸易分析

与传统贸易理论相比,产业内贸易理论以不完全竞争的市场结构和规模经济的存在为假设前提,更接近于贸易现实。在产业内贸易视角下分析美国电影产业的现状为如何解读电影产业国际贸易实践提供了新的维度。     

FDI对中国出口结构变迁的非对称影响效应

本文在关志雄(2002)和Lall等(2006)提出的基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法的基础上,构建动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel Data Model)深入分析了FDI对中国出口贸易结构变迁的非对称影响效应.最后,针对中国的对外经贸和FDI发展现状,本文提出了通过优化引资结构以促进当前中国出口结构优化升级的相应对策建议.     

新贸易理论体系刍议

20世纪80年代以来，许多西方经济学家致力于利用产业组织理论和市场结构理论来解释国际贸易现象，用不完全竞争、规模报酬递增等概念及思想来构造新的贸易理论模型，本文探究了新贸易理论产生的现实背景、新贸易理论体系的主要内容及政策意义。     

对外贸易商品结构与经济增长关系研究

本文在把贸易商品按要素密集度分为劳动密集型商品和资本技术密集型商品的基础上，运用协整理论、Granger因果检验等方法分析了进口商品结构、出口商品结构和GDP三者之间的关系，并提出有差别的降低关税，促进资本技术密集品进口和同时扩大劳动密集品出口、资本技术密集品出口的建议。     

Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates

This paper examines empirically how exogenous changes in the terms of trade affect the real exchange rate through the relative price of traded goods with Canada–US data. The relative price of traded goods is constructed using prices at the dock and retail prices. The first measure emphasizes the importance of home bias in consumption of traded goods. The second measure highlights the importance of distribution services required for consumption of traded goods. It is found that terms of trade shocks affect the relative price of traded goods using both measures. A possible interpretation of empirical findings is that home bias and distribution services are important for understanding the relative price of traded goods.     

Persistence of prices in the Eurozone capital cities: Evidence from the Economist Intelligence Unit City Data

Using the Economist Intelligence Unit City Data, this paper studies price differences in the Eurozone by comparing the prices of individual goods between twelve Eurozone countries. To estimate the persistence of prices, I employ a cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test that accounts for contemporaneous as well as serial correlation. Based on the test, the estimated half-lives are 13 months for traded goods and 16 months for non-traded goods. Price differences for certain traded goods such as food or cars revert to parity much faster than prices for alcohol. To further refine the persistence estimates, I use the sequential panel selection method to determine the stationarity of individual cross-sections for each good that rejects the unit root. The distribution of stationary cross-sections between the Eurozone countries appears fairly balanced. The half-lives based only on stationary-cross-sections are reduced to 6 months for traded goods and 7 months for non-traded goods.     

The Heckscher–Ohlin model and the network structure of international trade

This paper estimates for 28 product groups a characteristic parameter that reflects the topological structure of its trading network. Using these estimates, it describes how the structure of international trade has evolved during the 1980–2000 period. Thereafter, it demonstrates the importance of networks in international trade by explicitly accounting for their scaling properties when testing the prediction of the “Heckscher–Ohlin” model that factor endowment differentials determine bilateral trade flows. The results suggest that factor endowment differentials increase bilateral trade in goods that are traded in “dispersed” networks. For goods traded in “concentrated” networks, factor endowment differentials are less important.     

Market entry and trade weighted import costs

Trade weighting is a common method of aggregating trade frictions. It will understate changes in these costs when there are non‐ad valorem trade costs and quality differences. Newly traded goods enter at higher trade costs than previously traded ones. Lower import costs shift trade to low‐quality goods with higher measured trade costs. These effects are quantitatively important. U.S. import costs fall more than twice as fast as trade weighted measures from 1974 to 2004 after the impact of shifting quality and newly traded goods is accounted for. Empirical estimates that use trade weighting will underestimate the welfare impact of trade costs.     

A Model of Endogenous Nontradability and its Implications for the Current Account*

This paper studies how nontraded goods limit the ability of a country to finance current account deficits. It uses an intertemporal model of the current account for a small open economy where goods are endogenously nontraded due to explicit trade costs. The economy has an endowment of two goods with differing trade costs, either of which can be traded or nontraded in equilibrium. The model implies that current account deficits impose a cost, in the form of raising the effective interest rate in the country. The findings differ from some recent studies: first, in that the interest rate rises even for countries with modest current account deficits; secondly, the interest rate cost eventually reaches an upper bound as current account deficits grow, and progressively more nontraded goods become traded to service the debt. Panel regression analysis of interest rate and current account data is consistent with our conclusions.     

The Impact of Competition and Trade Unions on Workplace Reform and Organisational and Technological Change

This article addresses two research questions, firstly to test the hypothesis that organisational and technological changes are more likely to occur in the traded goods sector, in the private sector relative to the public sector and in more competitive product markets. Secondly, to examine whether trade unions have a positive or negative effect on the implementation of different types of workplace reforms, and organisational and technological changes. The analysis supports the hypothesis that workplaces in the traded goods sector are more likely to implement organisational and technological changes. It also indicates that workplaces in the private sector are more likely to implement certain types of reforms, whereas workplaces in the public sector are more likely to implement others. However, this study does not provide conclusive evidence that competitive pressure in product markets increases the probability that a firm will implement each workplace reform mentioned in this study. The evidence on unions provides tentative support to the view that more unionised workplaces are less likely to implement the reforms in question.     

On the Contemporary Commodity Structure of World Trade Patterns: An Empirical Assessment

For about 150 years, international trade theory has mostly highlighted trade in consumption goods. Such a modeling approach was likely supported by the then prevailing commodity structure of world trade. This paper shows that – at least since 1970 – only about 20 per cent of commodity trade has taken place in consumables, the remainder being intermediates and capital goods. Theoretically, this evidence suggests a move in the modelling strategy for traded goods: from utility functions to production functions. Sanyal and Jones' "new trade theory" (1982) does precisely that. In addition, some crucial research challenges emerge. These relate to dynamic changes in some general characteristics of production technologies throughout the world.     

PRICE DYNAMICS,FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND ANTICIPATED SHOCKS IN A TOURISM ECONOMY

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism‐related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non‐traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms‐of‐trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial under‐adjustment or an over‐adjustment in the prices of the non‐traded goods when the tourism terms‐of‐trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.     

Nontraded Goods and the Current Account

This paper investigates trade balance and current account behavior in response to various shocks when the economy produces and consumes both traded and nontraded goods. Previous analyses of these problems have interpreted current account behavior in terms of tension between parameters that measure intratemporal and intertemporal elasticity, respectively. This paper provides a simple general criterion for whether trade and current account behavior is "perverse" vis-à-vis the standard one-good model results: behavior is perverse if and only if traded and nontraded goods are Edgeworth complements; that is, if the cross-partial of the instantaneous utility function is positive.     

Product Market Integration and Union Collusion

This paper investigates the effects of product market integration on the incentives and scope for union collusion across borders. In the absence of binding agreements, the impact of this process on the unions’ willingness to collude depends both on the degree of product market integration and on the degree of substitutability among traded goods. Where trade barriers across countries are relatively low, implicit cross‐border collusion among unions is more difficult the more integrated are product markets and the less substitutable are traded goods.