资本账户开放后的居民资产组合问题

资产组合理论强调投资者应将资产分散于不同形式以降低整体风险,资本账户开放可以使居民在国际范围内调整自己的投资组合.中国目前面临着资本账户开放,在资本账户开放后我国居民的资产组合也会发生较大的变化.因此,讨论中国在资本账户开放后的居民资产组合问题具有重要的现实意义.本文就一国居民在开放资本账户后可能发生的资产组合调整进行分析,并探讨资本账户开放对中国居民的投资组合收益与风险的影响.     

资本账户开放与货币替代

资本账户开放会对一国的资产组合产生较大的影响。在资本账户开放前货币替代程度有限,而资本账户开放则可以使人们在不同货币及以不同货币表示的资产之间进行自由转换,这将大大方便货币替代的进行。文章研究了资本账户开放对货币替代的作用机制,并对中国资本账户开放后的货币替代作了一定的分析。     

资本账户开放下的金融风险分析

资本账户开放使资本在国与国之间自由流动,为国际投机资本的流入和流出打开了方便之门,也给发展中国家带来了金融风险。资本账户开放程度越高,金融风险也越大。然而,资本账户所带来的不断增大的金融风险与一国金融制度的不完善,会导致金融危机的爆发。中国的资本账户开放进程中,应加强制度建设以满足中国资本账户开放的长期需要,短期内可以放松对境外投资的管制,减轻资本净流入对人民币汇率和货币供应的压力,化解金融风险。     

中国资本账户开放的经济增长效应分析

随着国际贸易的迅速发展和国际资本流动逐渐加快,世界各国开始推动资本账户开放。然而,各国在资本账户开放在促进经济增长方面的作用却不尽相同。为了更加准确地得出中国资本账户开放与经济增长相互关系,基于中国1982—2009年的时间数据,首先利用联立方程估计中国资本账户开放的总体经济增长效应,然后从资本账户中的资本流入和资本流出这两个角度分别剖析资本流动的经济增长效应。     

论资本账户开放的动态条件

现有文献提出的资本账户开放所必要的条件大多是强调资本账户开放之前经济运行应该是稳健的,而忽视了资本账户开放对经济运行的影响.因此,这种分析范式存在很强的误导性,不利于人们正确认识资本账户开放的风险和应该具备的条件.文章强调了资本账户开放对经济运行的影响,并在此基础上提出了国际收支结构可维持性是资本账户开放的核心条件.     

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系.实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率.     

市场非均衡与中国资本账户开放风险

文章结合中国市场特点,利用货币市场均衡和估值效应的理论模型,研究了资本账户开放可能带来的风险.文章认为,国际收支不平衡是货币危机的基础,而估值效应加剧了这种不平衡、增大了危机爆发的可能性.因此,在维持国际资本账户基本平衡的基础上稳定汇率,是资本账户开放后更可行的政策目标.当国际收支大体平衡且国内货币调控深度足够时,以利率调节为手段的货币通胀目标便易于实现,从而有利于达到国内外市场均衡.     

资本账户开放与经济增长关系综述

在新古典模型中,开放资本账户有效地推动了资源的国际问分配,使得发展中国家可以获得较低成本的资本流入,从而推动了该国投资的暂时性增加,带动经济增长,最终提高了该国人民的生活水平.经济学家们在这一理论思想的指导下,分别用横断面模型、政策实践观点和企业层面的实践考察了资本账户开放和经济增长之间的关系,其测定理论的研究显示出资本账户开放对资本成本、投资和经济增长有着巨大的影响.     

资本账户开放的利弊和条件

经过多年资本账户开放的讨论和实践,人们对发展中国家资本开放的利弊认识越来越清楚。要开放资本账户并从中获益,存在一个基本的底限,达不到这个底限,无论各方面做得多好,都不能从中受益。资本账户开放的好益处资本账户开放可以提高本国资源配置效率,加强国内资本的积累。发达国家资本边际产出低,发展中国家边际产出高。发达国家的资本流向发展中国家能提高双方的产出,提高资源利用能力,结果表现为本国GDP的增长。这就是各发展中国家开放资本账户的一个根本原因。具体讲,就是本国的金融机构和公司企业可以以更低的成本获得所需资金。从全…     

资本账户开放的具体次序——对中国政策选择的启示

资本账户开放是金融全球化的一个必然趋势,而从以往各国的开放实践中,理论界得出了如何正确安排资本账户的内部具体次序对开放的效果有着至关重要影响的结论.本文在追踪了国际上对资本账户开放的具体次序的研究的最新进展之后,对文献中有关中国的部分进行了较为详细的综述.文章指出,中国的资本账户开放也是在以一个渐进的方式推进.即使是在如何开放的问题上,对于资本账户开放的模式(激进或渐进),资本账户同经常账户之间的先后次序等的讨论大多也是在理论层面上的论述,甚至就是在资本账户内部的次序方面,如直接投资和间接投资、长期投资和短期投资等的次序,也已经落后于中国自身的开放实践了.在我国具体的资本账户开放进程中,理论中所划分的阶段之间的界限已逐渐模糊.中国目前的政策安排重点是在如何确定资本账户子账户之间的先后次序上.     

我国资本项目开放的市场化道路

大部分发展中国家的责本项目开放属于短期需要驱动型而非市场作用增进型，因而不一定能提高市场配置责源的效率和经济绩效。长期以来我国放松责本管制较多地考虑外汇收支等短期因素，近几年情况有了很大的改善，但对市场机制的建设仍重视不够。未来我国的责本项目开放应统筹规划。根据信息公开原则、公平竞争原则、预算硬约束原则和间接调控原则，促进责本的合理流动，进一步发挥市场在责泺配置中的基础性作用。     

Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data

This paper addresses the empirical question of whether trade and financial openness can help explain the recent pace in financial development, as well as its variation across countries in recent years. Utilising annual data from developing and industrialised countries and dynamic panel estimation techniques, we provide evidence which suggests that both types of openness are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development. Our findings reveal that the marginal effects of trade (financial) openness are negatively related to the degree of financial (trade) openness, indicating that relatively closed economies stand to benefit most from opening up their trade and/or capital accounts. Although these economies may be able to accomplish more by taking steps to open both their trade and capital accounts, opening up one without the other could still generate gains in terms of banking sector development. Thus, our findings provide only partial support to the well known Rajan and Zingales hypothesis, which stipulates that both types of openness are necessary for financial development to take place.     

Capital Market Openness and Output Volatility

In this paper, using data from 21 advanced and 81 developing countries during 1971–2010, we empirically examine the impact of capital market openness on output volatility. We find that opening of capital markets increases the output volatility of developing countries. Furthermore, we find that the main channel through which capital market openness increases volatility is currency and external‐debt crisis. Finally, we find that while Asian countries are less likely to experience a crisis, they become even more unstable than other developing countries once a crisis occurs. Our evidence strengthens the case for caution in developing countries' opening up of their capital markets.     

The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows

We evaluate the claim that the International Monetary Fund precipitated financial crises during the 1990s, by pressuring countries to liberalize their capital accounts prematurely. Using data from a panel of developing economies from 1982–98, we examine whether the changes in the regime governing capital flows took place during participation in IMF programs. We find evidence that IMF program participation is correlated with capital account liberalization episodes during the 1990s. We verify the robustness of our results using alternative indicators of capital account openness. To determine whether decontrol was premature, we compare the economic and financial characteristics of countries that decontrolled during IMF programs with those of countries who did so independently, and find some evidence of IMF-led premature liberalizations.     

The influence of capital controls on long run growth: Where and how much?

The financial crisis in East Asia generated a revival of interest in the merits of financial openness. The ensuing debate on the benefits of openness has focused more on short and medium run issues than on the long run effects. Within the empirical literature on economic growth, little or no attention has been paid to the effects of financial openness. Contrary to the orthodox position, the few results that exist suggest that capital controls have no effect on economic growth. This paper argues that this conclusion emerges from a failure to account for underlying differences across countries with similar degrees of capital controls. We show that the degree of ethnic and linguistic heterogeneity in a country plays a significant role in explaining the effects of controls on economic growth. For countries with relatively higher degrees of ethnic heterogeneity, the effects are particularly adverse whereas for countries with high degrees of homogeneity, capital controls actually have a net positive effect on economic growth. On balance, more developing countries suffered due to controls than not. Within the sample of 57 non-OECD countries that did implement controls for the period 1975–1995, as many as 39 saw a reduction in their growth rates. This result is robust to a number of variables commonly used in the economic growth regressions.     

Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?

This article assesses the heterogeneous effects of immigration on economic growth depending on both the origin and the destination countries. Following the development of a growth model augmented by human capital of immigrants, we estimate it in a dynamic panel setup using the system-GMM estimator. We find that the growth-enhancing effect of immigration is significantly larger when immigration flows from developed to developing economies than when it does to those that include both developed and developing economies. We interpret these results as evidence of immigrants from developed countries bringing with them their advanced knowledge into the developing countries.     

International capital flows,liquidity risk,and monetary policy

In recent years, there has been a large amount of lending coming from the public sector of many developing countries. At the same time, the financial sectors in many advanced countries have issued a large share of portfolio debt to other countries. What are the implications of these events for the global financial system and overall economic activity? Do they have an impact on the transmission channels of monetary policy across countries at different stages of economic development? We investigate these important issues using a micro-founded model of money and banking so that the effects of monetary policy across countries can be meaningfully studied. Notably, the increase in capital outflows to the advanced economy renders monetary policy in developing countries to be less effective, while the effects of monetary policy in advanced economies are more pronounced. Yet, our results indicate that it can indeed be optimal for lower income countries to lend to the advanced world. Importantly, we find that the optimal amount of lending to advanced countries critically depends on the degree of liquidity risk — if it is sufficiently high, then public sector lending to advanced economies is not warranted. Consequently, our results indicate that governments in developing countries should carefully consider how much capital they send abroad to foreign countries.     

The long term impact of economic development in developed countries on developing countries since 1820

The linkages between the economic development of developed and developing countries are analyzed historically. The analysis is divided into epochs, distinguished by global trade regimes and by common characteristics of long term economic growth. The break throughs in long distance transport technology which occured during the industrial revolution created a global economy in which the rythm of economic activity in developing economies became linked to that of developed economies. The major transmission mechanisms were international trade, international migration and international capital flows. Exports were the main engine of growth in developing countries. But the effects of export expansion varied across countries. The speed of transmission of the industrial revolution to developing countries depended on their institutional readiness; countries with most developed capitalist institutions in factor markets were the first to develop. The extent of diffusion of the benefits of growth from export expansion within developing countries also depended on the nature of their institutions, both economic and political. Finally, policies with respect to international trade, investment and agriculture were also critical to the speed and diffusion of economic development.The research underlying this paper is the result of a twentyfive year collaboration with Professor Cynthia Taft Morris. She is indebted to the World Bank for financing the research in this paper as part of the background studies for the World Development Report 1991. She is also indebted to Sherman Robinson for his comments.     

资本回报率增长的最优知识产权保护强度研究——基于82个国家面板数据的实证

基于制度层面分析资本回报率变动的动因有助于探索经济增长新动力。计算82个国家的资本回报率，并基于知识产权保护视角对其变动机制进行分析，得出以下主要结论：①资本回报率增长存在最优知识产权保护强度，但发展中国家的理论最优强度小于发达国家；②发展中国家知识产权保护以远离最优强度状态促进资本回报率提升，发达国家则以接近最优强度状态促进资本回报率提升；③金融危机后，知识产权保护的促进效应在发展中国家更加明显，在发达国家有所弱化；④机制分析显示，知识产权保护通过促进技术创新提升资本回报率。     

OPTIMAL FOREIGN BORROWING REVISITED

Foreign capital has become increasingly important in financing investment and growth in developing countries. Foreign capital flows, however, can be volatile as is evident from the recent financial crises. It has also recently been noted by researchers that there is little systematic empirical evidence that foreign capital contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. In this context, this paper attempts to theoretically reevaluate the borrowing behaviour of a developing economy that relies on foreign borrowing for its capital formation. In particular, this paper investigates the implications of different lending policies of international financial institutions. It is found that no matter whether the borrowing interest rate increases with the level of foreign debt per capita or with the foreign‐capital/total‐capital ratio, the economy always moves toward the stationary state. The result holds even when the representative agent regards the interest rate given as constant. This implies that foreign borrowing does help economic growth, irrespective of lending policies of international financial institutions.