Time-Varying Variance Risk Premium and the Predictability of Chinese Stock Market Return

A number of studies have shown that the variance risk premium (VRP), defined as the difference between risk-neutral and physical expected variances, has strong predictive power for the excess stock market return, and this predictability peaks at 3- to 6-month prediction horizons. However, little research presents empirical evidences for Chinese stock market due to the absence of option market. Under general equilibrium asset pricing framework, this article estimates time-varying VRP using the Chinese stock market data. We find that the estimated VRP predicts the excess Chinese stock market return, and this forecasting power is stronger at 4- and 5-month horizons, which is consistent with the findings of existing literature.     

Market Illiquidity and Conditional Equity Premium

We examine the time‐series relation between aggregate bid‐ask spreads and conditional equity premium. We document that average marketwide relative effective bid‐ask spreads forecast aggregate market returns only when controlling for average idiosyncratic variance. This control allows us to document the otherwise elusive relation between illiquidity and returns. The reason is that idiosyncratic variance correlates positively with spreads but has a negative effect on conditional equity premium, causing an omitted variable bias. Our results are robust to standard return predictors, alternative illiquidity measures, and out‐of‐sample tests. These findings are important because they provide strong support for the literature's conjecture that marketwide liquidity is an important asset pricing risk factor.     

Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium

We investigate whether the volatility risk premium is negativeby examining the statistical properties of delta-hedged optionportfolios (buy the option and hedge with stock). Within a stochasticvolatility framework, we demonstrate a correspondence betweenthe sign and magnitude of the volatility risk premium and themean delta-hedged portfolio returns. Using a sample of S&P500 index options, we provide empirical tests that have thefollowing general results. First, the delta-hedged strategyunderperforms zero. Second, the documented underperformanceis less for options away from the money. Third, the underperformanceis greater at times of higher volatility. Fourth, the volatilityrisk premium significantly affects delta-hedged gains, evenafter accounting for jump fears. Our evidence is supportiveof a negative market volatility risk premium.     

中国股票市场风险溢价研究

本文通过综合资产定价理论和实证文献研究结论,对1997年到2009年中国股市A股股票的风险溢价的截面差异作了详尽的实证研究。我们构造25个投资组合作为检验资产,进行Fama-MacBeth两步回归法,建立了基于市场风险溢价,账面市值比,盈利股价比,现金流股价比,投资资本比,工业增加值变化率以及回购利率和期限利差的八因素模型。我们的主要发现有以下三点:一是相对于Fama-French三因素模型,我们模型的实证解释力有显著提高;二是与过去的文献不同,我们发现回购利率和期限利差等债市指标对股市风险溢价的截面数据有显著解释能力;三是与基于投资的资产定价理论一致,我们发现投资比率和现金流股价比能显著反映我国股市的风险溢价。     

Time Varying Market Leverage, the Market Risk Premium and the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that, when as usual the market portfolio is proxied by a share portfolio, then the conventional Ibbotson (1999) estimator of the market risk premium violates Miller–Modigliani (1958 and 1963) propositions II and III. A new estimator of the market risk premium is proposed which is free of these defects. In addition, across the range of market leverages experienced in the US in the period 1952–1997, it generates estimates of the market risk premium that differ from those generated by the Ibbotson methodology by up to 2.5 percentage points, and weighted average costs of capital for firms that differ by up to 2.6 percentage points.     

Modelling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: A New Perspective

In this paper we seek to develop a new approach to the time series analysis of foreign exchange risk premia. We do so by assuming a geometric Brownian process for the spot exchange rate and expressing the no-arbitrage spot-forward price relationship under the historical probability measure. We are thereby able to obtain a stochastic differential equation system linking the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the risk premium (modelled directly as a mean-reverting diffusion process) which we estimate using Kalman filtering techniques. We are able to use observations at a range of frequencies since the framework we set up does not involve overlapping observations. The model is then applied to the French Franc/USD, DEM/USD, GBP/USD, and Japanese Yen/USD exchange rates from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 1998. For all currencies we find evidence that the forward risk premium is stationary and exhibits substantial positive time variation.     

上海股票市场时变的风险收益关系研究

在GARCH-M模型框架下,本文通过不同的模型研究了作为新兴市场的上海股票市场股票日超额收益率条件均值和条件波动性之间的关系。本文研究表明,在股票超额收益率条件均值和条件方差之间都存在一种正的关系。上海股票市场日超额收益率波动表现出非对象现象,且波动模式表现为持续时间长,幅度相对比较缓和的特征。研究结果还表明,无风险利率可以显著解释日超额收益率的条件方差变动。     

The Intertemporal Relationship Between the Currency Spot Market and the Currency Option Market

This study examines the lead/lag relationship between currency option and currency spot markets for the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen. Using intraday currency option transactions data for the year 1989 and applying a European type currency option pricing model, pair data series of the implied and the observed exchange rates are compiled. Causality tests are then employed to test the causal relation between the observed and the implied exchange rate changes. The results indicate that the currency spot market leads the currency option market by about ninety minutes.     

A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium

This paper presents a model that reproduces the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle. Investors have preferences with external habits. Countercyclical risk premia and procyclical real interest rates arise endogenously. During bad times at home, when domestic consumption is close to the habit level, the representative investor is very risk averse. When the domestic investor is more risk averse than her foreign counterpart, the exchange rate is closely tied to domestic consumption growth shocks. The domestic investor therefore expects a positive currency excess return. Because interest rates are low in bad times, expected currency excess returns increase with interest rate differentials.     

Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach

This paper develops a nonparametric approach to examine how portfolio and consumption choice depends on variables that forecast time-varying investment opportunities. I estimate single-period and multiperiod portfolio and consumption rules of an investor with constant relative risk aversion and a one-month to 20-year horizon. The investor allocates wealth to the NYSE index and a 30-day Treasury bill. I find that the portfolio choice varies significantly with the dividend yield, default premium, term premium, and lagged excess return. Furthermore, the optimal decisions depend on the investor's horizon and rebalancing frequency.     

Money: A Market Microstructure Approach

The new monetary economics predicts that deregulation and financial innovation will lead to a moneyless world. This paper uses a market microstructure approach to show that a common medium of exchange that serves as unit of account will remain a necessary instrument to reduce transaction costs. This finding is supported by empirical evidence from foreign exchange markets.     

Modeling the Conditional Covariance Between Stock and Bond Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

To analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock andbond market returns, we assume that the conditional covariancematrix follows a multivariate GARCH process. We allow for asymmetriceffects in conditional variances and covariances. Using dailydata, we find strong evidence of conditional heteroskedasticityin the covariance between stock and bond market returns. Theresults indicate that not only variances, but also covariancesrespond asymmetrically to return shocks. Bad news in the stockand bond market is typically followed by a higher conditionalcovariance than good news. Cross asymmetries, that is, asymmetriesfollowed from shocks of opposite signs, appear to be importantas well. Covariances between stock and bond returns tend tobe relatively low after bad news in the stock market and goodnews in the bond market. A financial application of our modelshows that optimal portfolio shares can be substantially affectedby asymmetries in covariances. Moreover, our results show sizablegains due to asymmetric volatility timing.     

Optimal Estimation of the Risk Premium for the Long Run and Asset Allocation: A Case of Compounded Estimation Risk

It is well known that an unbiased forecast of the terminal valueof a portfolio requires compounding at the arithmetic mean returnover the investment horizon. However, the maximum-likelihoodpractice, common with academics, of compounding at the estimatorof mean return results in upward biased and highly inefficientestimates of long-term expected returns. We derive analyticallyboth an unbiased and a small-sample efficient estimator of long-termexpected returns for a given sample size and horizon. Both estimatorsentail penalties that reduce the annual compounding rate asthe investment horizon increases. The unbiased estimator, whichis far lower than the compounded arithmetic average, is stillvery inefficient, often more so than a simple geometric estimatorknown to practitioners. Our small-sample efficient estimatoris even lower. These results compound the sobering evidencein recent work that the equity risk premium is lower than suggestedby post-1926 data. Our methodology and results are robust toextensions such as predictable returns. We also confirm analyticallythat parameter uncertainty, properly incorporated, producesoptimal asset allocations, in stark contrast to conventionalwisdom. Longer investment horizons require lower, not higher,allocations to risky assets.     

Financial Market Design and the Equity Premium: Electronic versus Floor Trading

We assemble the announcement and actual introduction dates of electronic trading by the leading exchanges of 120 countries to examine the impact of automation, controlling for risk factors and economic conditions. Dividend growth models and international CAPM suggest a significant decline in the equity premium, especially in emerging markets. Consistent with this reduction in the equity premium in the long run, there is a positive short‐term price reaction to the switch. Further analysis of trading turnover supports the notion that electronic trading enhances the liquidity and informativeness of stock markets, leading to a reduction in the cost of capital.     

Corporate Policy and Market Value: A q-Theory Approach

In this paper, we show that Tobin's q has a significant predictive power in explaining valuation consequences of major corporate policy variables. Our empirical results reveal that, depending upon whether a firm is overinvesting or underinvesting, financial markets respond quite differently to its capital structure, dividend payout, financial slack, and R & D decisions. Overall, the empirical results suggest that both high debt ratios and greater payouts are favorably viewed by the market when firms are overinvesting. For firms with growth opportunities, however, large debt is unfavorably viewed by the market. In addition, financial slack and R & D expenditures are favorably received by the market for growth firms but not for overinvesting firms.     

Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium

The efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. exchange market for the current float is examined more extensively than previously. Semi-strong-form tests which admit the lagged spot rate as a predictor are considered in addition to the standard weak-form test. These stronger tests reject the joint null hypothesis of an efficient exchange market and no risk premium for the period ending in October 1976, although not for the entire period. For almost every year the current spot rate provided a better forecast of the future spot rate than did the current forward rate.     

人民币升值与我国保费增长联动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

自2005年人民币汇率制度逐步走向市场化以来,到2010年一季度,人民币对美元累计升值已经达30%,在未来的一段时间内,人民币升值都是大概率事件,我国保险企业不可避免要遭遇汇率波动的影响,这是我国绝大多数保险企业需要适应的新环境.但是国内对于人民币汇率波动对我国保费收入的影响研究多侧重于宏观的理论研究,对于实证分析涉及较少,本文在分析汇率影响保费收入的传导机制的基础上,利用2000年-2009年人民币实际有效汇率、保费收入环比指数和银行同业拆借利率共44组季度数据建立了向量自回归模型(VAR),并使用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验(Granger)、脉冲响应分析对人民币汇率波动与我国保费收入之间的关系进行实证检验.研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对保费收入产生正向影响,人民币实际有效汇率每上升10%,我国保费收入增长0.644%,但是这种正相关的影响将会在升值8个季度之后转为负.最后文章提出了相应的政策建议.