2004年海南省经济金融运行分析

2004年海南经济继续保持了快速平稳的发展态势,产业结构进一步优化,企业效益有了较大提高,金融机构经营效益明显好转,金融服务于经济的效果显现。本文较详细地分析了2004年全年海南省经济金融在宏观调控下的运行状况及存在的问题,并提出了相关的对策建议。     

甘肃产业结构优化与金融支持的关系实证研究

金融是现在经济的核心,金融发展与产业结构优化相互促进。基于此,运用计量经济学方法对甘肃金融发展和产业结构优化之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明金融发展与产业结构优化存在长期的稳定的关系,且金融相关比率的提高有利于产业结构的优化,而金融效率对产业结构的优化并没用表现出积极的促进作用,反之,产业结构的优化对金融相关比率的提高和金融信贷结构的调整具有反促进作用。     

论海南自由贸易港发展离岸金融的法律完善

海南自由贸易港发展离岸金融有利于推动资本的国际化流动和优化配置,具有充分的必要性和可行性。但囿于离岸金融有关法律滞后无法满足离岸金融复杂性的现实需求,海南自贸港离岸金融发展裹足不前。海南自由贸易港有必要通过离岸金融立法的引导,用足用好海南自由贸易港法规立法权完善离岸金融立法,完善离岸金融市场准入、经营和退出环节的规则设计。海南自由贸易港发展离岸金融应在坚持离岸在岸相分离的监管模式的基础上,建立统一协调的海南自由贸易港离岸金融监管体系,加强离岸金融事前事中事后监管,完善离岸金融风险预警和防范机制,为发展离岸金融构筑良好的法律环境。     

金融发展与产业结构优化互动关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析

基于1995—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,利用产业结构高级化值估计了我国的产业结构优化指标值,分别从金融规模、金融效率与金融结构三方面分析了我国金融发展与产业结构优化间的互动关系。结果表明:我国金融发展水平的提高在一定程度上促进了我国产业结构优化升级,但二者间的良性互动还需要进一步加强。随着我国产业结构由工业化中期向工业化后期过渡阶段的演进,金融发展质量的提升对产业结构优化越显重要,金融效率和金融结构变动对产业结构优化具有长期积极影响。另外,我国金融发展还处于"供给引导"阶段,产业结构优化对金融发展的引致需求效果并不显著,特别是对金融规模和金融结构的提升效果欠佳。     

海南垦区农村发展实践

截至2013年末,我国农垦系统拥有土地36.59万平方公里,占国土面积的3.9%,最大限度地提高土地利用效率,盘活土地资源优势改变产业结构单一局面,实现农垦系统土地资源效益最大化,对解决区域性经济发展和"三农"问题有着现实的推动作用和示范作用。本文以海南垦区金融发展实践为例,研究农垦体系改革和金融发展的相互作用。我国垦区发展概述     

湖南金融发展对产业结构升级的金融支持研究

论文系统全面的阐述了金融发展支持产业结构升级的作用机理,并从间接金融和直接金融的视角。研究金融发展对产业结构升级的作用,实证表明：间接金融尤其是中长期贷款对产业结构升级起到了巨大的推动作用;直接金融也就是股票筹资对产业结构升级有一定的作用,但作用有限．最后从金融创新的视角。提出金融支持产业结构的对策建议。     

创建海南金融安全示范区推进和谐社会建设

构建和谐社会是当前我国政治生活中一件大事。建设和谐社会，需要金融体系的安全。由于受房地产泡沫的影响，海南一度成为我国的金融高风险区。在党中央、国务院的正确领导和国家有关部门的大力支持下，海南经过几年的努力，金融风险已基本化解，摘掉了“金融高风险区”的帽子，金融生态环境明显好转。为了使海南金融运行更加符合国际惯例，彻底改变海南金融的对外形象，当务之急就是要迅速建立海南金融安全示范区，进一步加快海南金融生态环境的建设。     

青海省金融结构调整与产业结构升级问题研究

改善区域金融结构,促进产业结构优化升级,是我国金融体制改革与区域经济发展面临的重要难题。本文以金融结构理论为基础,以青海省金融结构和产业结构为研究对象,分析了青海省金融结构和产业结构发展中存在的不匹配性问题,提出适合青海省产业结构优化升级的金融发展策略。     

海南自贸港金融:政策框架、实施进展及未来展望

海南建设中国特色自由贸易港,是习近平总书记亲自谋划、亲自部署、亲自推动的改革开放重大举措.作为改革开放总框架中的有机组成部分,海南自贸港金融定位为服务于海南自贸港建设、实体经济发展和跨境贸易投资自由化便利化,着力构建园区金融、跨境金融、普惠金融、绿色金融、科创金融"五位一体"协调发展的金融格局.当前海南金融部门扎实推进自贸港金融政策的落地实施,取得了显著成效,支持海南自贸港建设发挥了重要作用.新的阶段,海南自贸港金融应把握开放创新的发展方向,为我国探索金融领域更高水平对外开放先行先试,为全国区域金融改革发展提供可借鉴经验.     

海南通过挂职方式引进金融人才的政策研究

相对经济发达省份,海南引进金融人才特别是高端金融人才有一定困难,而培养和储备金融人才周期又比较长,难解人才稀缺的燃眉之急.本文基于海南金融人才现状,提出借鉴其他省市引进金融人才成功经验,建议海南通过挂职方式引进金融人才,以更好地支持海南经济社会建设.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.