间接税负担对收入分配的影响分析

本文利用城市住户调查资料考察了中国增值税、消费税和营业税这三项主要的间接税在不同收入群体的负担情况。我们的研究表明 ,低收入家庭收入中负担增值税和消费税的比例大于高收入家庭 ,但高收入家庭收入中负担营业税的比例大于低收入家庭。整个间接税是接近成比例负担的。间接税恶化了收入分配 ,但并不显著     

能源价格不确定性、固定资产投资与中国经济波动*

本文采用贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型,利用2003—2016年中国宏观经济变量和煤炭与石油价格不确定性的季度数据考察了能源价格不确定性增加对中国经济波动的影响。研究发现：能源价格不确定性是影响中国经济波动的重要因素之一,它能够解释我国1075%的实际国内生产总值波动。同时,能源价格不确定性增加不仅会直接抑制中国的产出水平,而且还会通过降低固定资产投资来间接降低产出水平。高能源依赖度省份受到的抑制效应大于低能源依赖度省份。对此,中国政府会采取扩张的财政政策和货币政策来应对能源价格不确定性增加所带来的负面影响。本文提出,重视能源价格波动的风险冲击,降低传统能源消费依赖度,是规避能源价格不确定性冲击的根本途径。     

生态旅游发展对少数民族地区农户精准扶贫效应研究

通过对云南省4个试点国家公园生态旅游发展对周边少数民族农户收入影响的研究,发现生态旅游发展能够有效增加农户家庭的收入,其中低收入和中低收入农户更加依赖生态旅游的发展,高收入农户对生态旅游发展没有依赖,生态旅游发展的精准扶贫效应非常显著。     

抵押贷款、社会资本与农户贷款可得性的实证研究——基于电白县农户的调查数据

首先,通过基于引入社会资本、抵押贷款参数以及Cobb-Douglas函数构建的社会最优贷款模型进行的分析,结果表明社会资本有助于提高农户贷款的可得性。其次,基于所有人、中高收入群体、低收入群体三视角,以及用Logistic模型对农户调查所得数据进行的实证分析,结果表明:从所有人视角看,农户普遍缺乏合格的抵押品,抵押贷款在总体上降低了农户贷款的可得性,而社会资本能增加农村地区的贷款规模;从中高收入群体视角看,较富裕的农户普遍能提供抵押品,有助于提高贷款的可得性;从低收入群体视角看,银行更关注农户的社会资本,社会资本在贷款中的作用大于抵押品,社会资本与贷款可得性呈正相关。目前,在中国的农村,低收入群体占大多数,在农户贷款合约中引入社会资本,将有助于农户贷款难问题的解决。     

青岛圆桌会议碰撞全球能源课题

错综复杂的能源价格波动给全球经济带来了不稳定性，要求中国必须采取合理能源战略。     

能源价格上涨对我国出口贸易的影响

当前,随着我国经济继续保持了较高的增长速度,能源消费也随之不断增加,在能源供给增量有限的情形下,能源供求缺口呈现不断拉大趋势。因此,能源价格也表现出持续上涨的态势。在多年的能源价格管制政策指导下,我国的出口贸易保持了一定的能源要素价格优势,而未来能源价格的持续上涨则会对出口贸易的发展产生一定冲击。所以,在能源价格上涨的形势下保障我国出口贸易持续稳定发展需要采取有效的政策措施,稳定能源价格;采取积极主动的贸易政策,保障出口贸易的顺利进行;加强对节能技术研发的投入和人力资本的培养。     

中心城区建设转型期低收入家庭致贫原因分析——以深圳市福田区为例

文章利用深圳市福田区城市住户调查及相关社会经济统计数据,对中心城区建设转型期低收入家庭致贫原因进行分析,指出家庭负担系数重、知识与技能储备不足、思想观念禁锢、社会资源欠缺等是导致低收入家庭贫困的主要特点,产业结构转型升级造成低技能人员失业、初次收入分配制度不公、物价上涨等因素是低收入家庭贫困的社会原因,并对增加低收入家庭收入、完善社会保障制度提出政策建议。     

农户生计资产量化分析方法的应用与验证——基于福建省农村最低生活保障目标家庭瞄准效率的调研数据

农村最低生活保障制度是以贫困农户作为瞄准单位,其运行成功与否取决于制度实施中目标家庭瞄准的准确性。本文从农户生计资产的视角,通过构建农户生计资产指标体系,对低收入农户生计资产进行量化分析,试图达到对农村最低生活保障制度目标家庭准确瞄准的目的。实证结果表明,农户生计资产量化分析可以直观地显示农户生计资产的组合及其配置状况,可用来判断农户整体生活状况,并可对低收入农户进行准确排序。农户生计资产量化分析方法不失为提高制度瞄准效率的一种有益尝试。     

自然灾害发生前后灾区农户收入影响因素的对比分析——以汶川为例

本文以汶川地震为研究背景,通过构建灾害发生前后灾区农户的收入模型,实证研究了灾前、灾后影响受灾地区农户收入的主要因素及其异同。除此之外,本文从高低收入组间差异角度,实证分析了灾害发生前后农户收入影响因素的组间差异。研究表明,无论是灾前还是灾后,外出务工对农户收入都具有显著的正向增长作用,且灾后这种影响比灾前有所扩大。地震发生后,家庭经营收入对农户收入的增长作用比灾前有所增加。地震对高低收入组农户外出务工情况产生了不同程度的负面影响,由此可能导致高低收入组间农户收入差距的进一步扩大。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

农民工家庭与城镇住户消费行为差异分析——来自中国城乡劳动力流动调查的证据

本文利用2008年中国城乡劳动力流动调查数据探讨了农民工家庭与城镇住户消费行为差异,在控制了生命周期、持久性收入、预防性储蓄及所在城市后,估计结果显示:农民工家庭消费与城镇住户消费存在显著差异,农民工家庭的边际消费倾向要显著低于城镇住户。Oaxaca-Blinder分解进一步揭示,农民工家庭与城镇住户的消费差异大部分是不可解释的,这些不可解释因素可能是由户籍制度引起的。Standard Fractional Logit Model分析结果显示,农民工家庭的食品、医疗保健、教育文化支出比例要显著低于城镇住户,家庭设备用品和交通通信支出比例要显著高于城镇住户,而在衣着支出上两者的差异并不显著。     

Consumption smoothing in Russia

This paper uses panel data from rounds V–IX of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to examine the extent to which households are able to protect their consumption from fluctuations in their income. It is found that consumption is only partially protected from idiosyncratic shocks to income with food consumption being better protected than non‐food consumption expenditures. This suggests that adjustments in non‐food expenditures may be an important component of the risk management tools of Russian households. The analysis also provides evidence on the extent and nature of the coping strategies adopted by households. It is demonstrated that households complement their self‐insurance strategies, of borrowing, adjusting their labour supply, and selling assets, with informal risk sharing arrangements with households within their community. An examination of the role of sample selection confirmed that these findings are quite robust to this potential source of bias. Furthermore, accounting for the role of measurement and imputation errors in the measure of household income revealed that OLS estimates may yield a misleading picture about the extent to which urban and rural households are insured from idiosyncratic income shocks. JEL classification: D1, R2, P5.     

More or better? Measuring quality versus quantity in food consumption

As people become richer they get the opportunity of consuming more but also qualitatively better goods. This holds for a basic commodity like food as well. We investigate food consumption in Russia, taking into account both expenditure and nutrition value in terms of calories. We analyse how food consumption patterns change with increasing income by considering both “quantity Engel curves” and “quality Engel curves.” The former describe the functional dependence of calories consumed on total expenditure. The latter trace out the dependence of unit value per calorie on total expenditure. We compare income elasticities of quantity with income elasticities of unit value and quality. In Russian household survey data for years 2000–2002 the reaction of quality to income changes is significantly stronger than the reaction of quantity to income changes suggesting that Russian households tend to choose higher quality food items as income rises.     

The Impact of the German Child Benefit on Household Expenditures and Consumption

The German Child Benefit (‘Kindergeld’) is paid to legal guardians of children as a cash benefit. The benefit does not depend on household income or other household characteristics. I use exogenous variations in the amount of child benefit received by households in the German Socio‐Economic Panel to estimate the impact of a given change in the child benefit on food expenditures of households, the probability of owning a home, rent per square meter, measures of the size of the home, as well as parents’ smoking behavior and parents’ alcohol consumption. Households primarily increase per capita food expenditures in response to increases in child benefit, and they also improve housing conditions. The effect of child benefit on per capita food expenditures is larger for low‐income households compared to high‐income households. I do not find a significant effect of child benefit on parents’ smoking or drinking.     

食品价格上涨对城镇家庭消费与福利影响研究——基于EASI模型

文章基于与2015年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主迪顿的接近理想需求系统 AIDS 来源相同的EASI需求系统 ,采用CHNS调查数据 ,运用 EASI需求系统实证分析了各类食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇家庭消费与福利的影响 ,并比较了收入补贴与价格补贴的经济效果.研究发现:(1)我国城镇居民动物性食品消费支出占食品总支出的比重最大 ,其次是粮食和蔬菜 ,城镇居民的食品消费结构为"动物性食品+粮食+蔬菜" ,这说明动物性食品价格上涨对我国城镇居民日常膳食消费的影响相对较大.(2)粮食价格对困难户和最低收入家庭的福利影响最大 ,动物性食品价格对较低收入家庭的福利影响最大.(3)对低收入家庭而言 ,当动物性食品价格上涨时 ,收入补贴政策的效果优于价格补贴政策 ;当粮食价格上涨时 ,价格补贴政策的效果优于收入补贴政策.文章最后从生产、补贴政策和分配制度的角度提出了政策建议.     

Price hike of staple food,nutritional impact and consumption adjustment: evidence from the 2005–2010 rice price increase in rural Bangladesh

This paper studies the nutritional impact of the rice price increase between 2005 and 2010 on households in rural Bangladesh and their resulting adjustment in consumption of rice, non-rice food and non-food items. We compare net rice buyers, who suffer from a negative income effect, with self-sufficient households that do not suffer from any such effect. Our findings indicate that rural households in Bangladesh cope well with the surge in the domestic rice price as indicated by the absence of any effect on their calorie intake and dietary diversity. In fact, both types of households similarly change their consumption of rice, non-rice grain, pulses, protein, fruits and other items. Furthermore, we do not find any evidence of buyers’ switching towards low-quality items in a food group. In a separate analysis, we compare net rice sellers with self-sufficient households and arrive at a similar conclusion. In both cases, income plays a crucial role in the consumption of non-rice food and non-food items, indicating the importance of effective income support programs at the time of price shocks in staple food items.     

Domestic agricultural value chain development and pro‐poor growth: A computable general equilibrium microsimulation application for the Democratic Republic of Congo

The economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo has gained momentum between 2003 and 2015, with a high annual growth rate of over 6%. However, poverty and employment outcomes were relatively poor, while inequality increased. This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model to study the pro‐poor effect of alternative growth strategy that is likely to strengthen the competitiveness of agro‐food products from the Congo. We experimented with three different scenarios: labor productivity growth, marketing efficiency, and transportation efficiency. The simulations demonstrated that improving the productivity of workers in agro‐food industries has not only produced strong relative pro‐poor effects, but also has the potential to lead to income convergence between rich and poor households. The analysis also revealed the underestimated contribution of agro‐food marketing and transportation efficiency. The major finding is that marketing efficiency favors the middle class. Efficiency gains in the transportation of agro‐food products generate strong pro‐poor effects in absolute and relative terms and are likely to be particularly effective in leading to income convergence. This policy has the potential not only to increase income and employment, but also to provide positive price impacts for both producers and consumers and benefits to all households, particularly low‐income households.     

Food quality,calories and household income

We investigate the relationship between calories, food quality and household per capita expenditure using regression and semiparametric methods on a sample of poor households from rural Mexico, where Programa de Apoyo Alimentario (PAL), a targeted nutritional programme, is operating. The semiparametric method yields an estimate of the elasticity between calories and expenditure of 0.39 below the median and 0.28 above. The corresponding estimates of the elasticity of the calorie price are 0.48 below the median and 0.45 above. We also examine the extent to which the expenditure elasticity of the calorie price is explained by substitution between and within major food groups. We find that there is a very high incidence of substitution within cereals (especially for poor households) and that between group substitution explains at most 59% of the income elasticity for food quality. These estimates suggest that the potential of a cash transfer programme to have a positive impact on the food diversity and the nutritional status of households is quite limited.     

Demand elasticities for food products in Brazil: a two-stage budgeting system

The object of this article is to estimate demand elasticities for a basket of staple food important for providing the caloric needs of Brazilian households. These elasticities are useful in the measurement of the impact of structural reforms on poverty. A two-stage demand system was constructed, based on data from Household Expenditure Surveys (POF) produced by IBGE (The Brazilian Bureau of Statistics) in 1987/88 and 1995/96. We have used panel data to estimate the model, and have calculated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities for eight groups of goods and services and, in the second stage, for 11 sub groups of staple food products. We estimated those elasticities for the whole sample of consumers and for two income groups.     

A natural experiment of the effect of advertising on sales: the SASOL case

China's so-called ‘reform and opening up’ policy (Gai Ge Kai Fang), implemented nearly 30 years ago, has led to tremendous economic development. China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.25 trillion US dollars in 2007, making it the fourth largest economy in the world. At the same time, income inequality has become quite skewed in China, inviting considerable criticism. Moreover, the trend towards greater income inequality persists. Of particular public policy relevance is the effect of income inequality on health disparities in China, particularly for low-income households. This study addresses this issue using a longitudinal dataset from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) over the period 1997 to 2006. Our central finding is that income inequality affects health differently by socioeconomic status: income inequality harms individual health among low income households by more than it does among high income households. More specifically, health is more adversely affected by greater income inequality for households with low incomes. China's central government is committed to making further investments in the health care system. As part of that effort, attention should be directed at low income households to reduce health inequality, possibly providing them with a health insurance safety net similar to Medicaid in USA.     

The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in “real” inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor.