Services Offshoring and its Impact on Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Germany, 1995–2006

Economists have recently recognised services offshoring as an important influence on domestic labour market outcomes. Services are of particular interest since their significance has grown in terms of both quantity and quality. Only one and a half decades ago, most services were considered non‐tradable, but the emergence and development of new information and communication technologies has made many services internationally tradable. The liberalisation of international trade in services trade has further accelerated the volume of services trade. Our econometric estimations focus on services offshoring by German manufacturing sectors. We use revised input–output data from 1995 to 2006. We first estimate the impact of services offshoring on labour productivity. We then measure the effects of services offshoring on labour demand. The results show that services offshoring increased sectoral labour productivity, but reduced German manufacturing employment. The overall results suggest that labour demand decreased over 1995–2006, because labour‐reducing productivity and substitution effects dominated labour‐augmenting scale effects from services offshoring.     

Exposure to the new wave of offshoring: An unemployment perspective

This paper examines the impact of increasing service offshoring in a two‐sector economy. We find that it leads to lower domestic unemployment if the marginal task‐specific offshoring cost in the service sector is sufficiently large. Under this condition, the jobs created due to enhanced productivity outweigh the jobs that are destroyed. The reduction in unemployment increases the cost of hiring domestic workers, thus encouraging firms in the manufacturing sector to increase their offshoring scale and productivity. This, in turn, increases their cost savings and may lead to a further decrease in unemployment. Hence, complementarity between two sectors’ offshoring activities may emerge. We calibrate the model using economic parameters from Belgium, and the calibration results predict varied unemployment trends and impacts on manufacturing‐sector offshoring activities with different task‐specific offshoring cost schedules.     

Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the US

The practice of sourcing service inputs from overseas suppliers has been growing in response to new technologies that have made it possible to trade in some business and computing services that were previously considered non‐tradable. This paper estimates the effects of offshoring on productivity in US manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2000. It finds that service offshoring has a significant positive effect on productivity in the United States, accounting for around 10 per cent of labour productivity growth during this period. Offshoring material inputs also have a positive effect on productivity, but the magnitude is smaller accounting for approximately 5 per cent of productivity growth.     

Can labour market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labour markets in Europe

This paper investigates how labour market regulations alter the adverse impact of rising import competition from China in European local labour markets between 1997 and 2006. The paper constructs measures of regional exposure to Chinese imports based on previous literature and on regional labour market frictions exploiting involuntary labour reallocations. Taking into account the endogeneity of import competition and its interaction with labour market regulations, the paper finds that regions more exposed to the rise of China have suffered from a reduction in manufacturing employment shares. This shock grows larger with regional labour market frictions; hence, it exacerbates the impact of trade shock on employment. Moreover, the paper finds that employment in public services, and not in construction or private services sector, absorbed the negative shock to the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate, the labour force participation rate and wages in all sectors are unresponsive to import competition from China.     

The Effects of Offshoring on Post‐displacement Wages: Evidence from the United States

This paper studies the effects of offshoring on post‐displacement wages using a large and nationally representative sample of US workers displaced from a manufacturing industry during the 1990s. The empirical results based on Mincerian regressions of individual re‐employment earnings on industry‐level offshoring proxies, show that the effects of offshoring on post‐displacement wages are negative, although not economically large. The preferred specifications suggest, in fact, that a one percentage point increase in offshoring in the pre‐displacement industry reduces earnings on the new job by approximately 0.3–0.6 per cent. These figures imply that the cumulative rise in offshoring over the sample period may have led to a drop of between US$110 and US$330 in the yearly re‐employment wages of US displaced workers. While the magnitude of the effect is largely independent of individual characteristics such as gender, age, occupation and educational level, it does depend on the duration of non‐employment and on workers’ industrial reallocation after displacement. In particular, the effects are relatively stronger for individuals who stay longer before finding a new job, as well as for those who leave the pre‐displacement industry after the job loss.     

Jobs and Exposure to International Trade within the Service Sector in Sweden

To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid‐1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low‐wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 12–13 per cent.     

Offshoring and the Skill‐premium: Evidence from Individual Workers’ Data

During the 1980s the United States has experienced an increase in both international trade and the skill‐premium. The association between these two phenomena has proven elusive in the early empirical literature on the subject. Indeed, the consensus among labour economists seems to be that trade has not been the main cause of such increase in the skill‐premium. This view has been challenged by Feenstra and Hanson (1999, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 3, 907) who find that offshoring sizably affects the skill‐premium. I revisit this debate using individual workers’ data from the March Current Population Survey combined with industry‐level trade data. This strategy improves upon the work of Feenstra and Hanson who do not control for the demographic characteristics of the labour force. In my results, offshoring can explain between 9 and 30 per cent of the increase in the college wage premium, relative to high‐school workers. In addition, I find that offshoring can explain 21 per cent of the increase in the relative employment of skilled labour. These results suggest that offshoring may play an important role in the increase in the relative demand of skilled workers.     

Short‐term Consequences of Trade Reform for Industry Employment and Wages: Survey of Evidence from Colombia

Recent research has focused on the short‐ to medium‐term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short‐term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short‐ to medium‐run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.     

Employment generation by small producers in the Canadian manufacturing sector

This paper uses job turnover data to compare how job creation, job destruction and net job change differ for small and large establishments in the Canadian manufacturing sector. It uses several different techniques to correct for the regression-to-the-mean problem that, it has been suggested, might incorrectly lead to the conclusion that small establishments create a disproportionate number of new jobs. It finds that net job creation for smaller establishments is greater than that of large establishments after such changes are made. The paper also compares the importance of small and large establishments in the manufacturing sectors of Canada and the United States. The Canadian manufacturing sector is shown to have both a larger proportion of employment in smaller establishments but also to have a small establishment sector that is growing in importance relative to that of the United States.     

增加值贸易视角下中国比较优势动态演变研究

利用WIOD数据库及KWW分解框架对1995~2011年中国总出口额进行分解,得到35个部门出口增加值。在此基础上,从两种统计方式对比角度,测算分析了中国总体及不同行业的增加值比较优势(VRCA)与贸易总额比较优势(TRCA),同时与美国进行对比。研究结果表明,在增加值贸易统计方式下,中国总体对外贸易表现为比较劣势,制造业部门VRCA较为明显但长期呈下降趋势,服务业VRCA呈上升趋势,1995~2011年间部分部门的比较优势出现逆转。相对于VRCA,TRCA对中国总体对外贸易真实比较优势高估了约12.94%,制造业部门的比较优势高估程度更大;从行业分类来看,中国低技术制造业及劳动密集型服务业的比较优势更为显著。从中美对比来看,美国总体VRCA与中国水平相当,但其优势部门集中于中高技术制造业与知识密集型服务业;总额统计方式低估了美国总体尤其是服务业部门的真实比较优势。     

Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence

Existing models of offshoring are not equipped to explain how global production sharing affects the volatility of economic activity. This paper develops a trade model that can account for why offshoring industries in low wage countries such as Mexico experience fluctuations in employment that are twice as large as in high wage countries such as the United States. We argue that a key to explaining this outcome is that the extensive margin of offshoring responds endogenously to shocks in demand and transmits those shocks across borders in an amplified manner. Empirical evidence supports the claim that the extensive margin of offshoring is an active margin of adjustment, and quantitative simulation experiments show that the degree of movement of this margin in the data is sufficient to explain relative employment volatility in Mexico and the U.S.     

Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence

Existing models of offshoring are not equipped to explain how global production sharing affects the volatility of economic activity. This paper develops a trade model that can account for why offshoring industries in low wage countries such as Mexico experience fluctuations in employment that are twice as large as in high wage countries such as the United States. We argue that a key to explaining this outcome is that the extensive margin of offshoring responds endogenously to shocks in demand and transmits those shocks across borders in an amplified manner. Empirical evidence supports the claim that the extensive margin of offshoring is an active margin of adjustment, and quantitative simulation experiments show that the degree of movement of this margin in the data is sufficient to explain relative employment volatility in Mexico and the U.S.     

Trade in High-Tech Services

This paper examines the size, scope, and potential implications of trade in high-tech services in the U.S. The results suggest that many service activities are tradable, tradable service activities tend to employ more educated workers and pay higher wages, and high-tech services account for a large share of service activities that are tradable. Service exporters are more prevalent in high-tech industries with larger establishments and higher wages. Within industries, service exporters tend to be larger, pay higher wages, and are more productive. Tradable service activities seem consistent with U.S. comparative advantage and, as a result, less likely to be vulnerable to offshoring. Consistent with this, recent employment growth in tradable service industries is not significantly different than employment growth in non-tradable service industries.     

Trade, offshoring, and the invisible handshake

We study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long-run employment relationships (the ‘invisible handshake’). Globalization can take two forms: international integration of commodity markets (i.e., free trade) and international integration of factor markets (i.e., offshoring). In a two-country, two-good, two-factor model we show that free trade and offshoring have opposite effects on rich-country workers. Free trade hurts rich-country workers, while reducing the volatility of their wages; by contrast, offshoring benefits them, while raising the volatility of their wages. We thus formalize, but also sharply circumscribe, a common critique of globalization.     

The canada-U.S. free trade agreement

This article examines the forces that caused Canada and the United States to negotiate the free trade agreement, its principal provisions, the projected welfare gains, and estimated labor adjustments. Focusing on the latter, the impact on manufacturing employment is expected to be positive but small in the United States and negative but small in Canada; with the agriculture and resource sectors losing employment shares in both countries. The impact on services will be negligible in the United States and positive in Canada. Focusing on specific industries, nonferrous metals sector appears vulnerable in the United States, while textiles, clothing, furniture and fixtures, electrical and nonelectrical equipment and machinery, nonmetallic mineral products, and fabricated metal products appear vulnerable in Canada. However, actual job losses could be significantly circumscribed by moderate growth and employee turnover, and within vulnerable Canadian industries, there are pockets of significant strength such as in office furniture and telecommunications equipment.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

Offshoring and occupational wages: Some empirical evidence

Offshoring has changed the pattern of international competition; labor in specific occupations rather than whole firms and sectors are now facing competition. Accordingly, wages in offshorable occupations are affected in new ways. In this article, we investigate the effects of offshoring on relative occupational wages in 13 countries for 1990–2003. Our findings show that offshoring competiveness is associated with higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, and that export growth of IT-related services leads to higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, whereas import growth of such services reduces them.     

‘BAUMOL'S DISEASE’, PRODUCTION EXTERNALITIES AND PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS OF INTERSECTORAL TRANSFERS

This paper presents a model that introduces in an unbalanced growth framework à la Baumol the hypothesis of an endogenous productivity growth due to a positive externality of the service sector on manufacturing productivity and a learning‐by‐doing process inside both sectors. The model shows that a policy aimed at keeping the ratio between outputs in the two sectors constant in real terms may improve the aggregate productivity performance of the economy, depending on the parameters' values. Then the model derives the dynamics of the intersectoral transfer which is necessary to keep the ratio between outputs constant, and verifies that the amount of the transfer turns out to be always lower than the output of the manufacturing sector, and only asymptotically approaches it.     

Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America,Australia and Morocco

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the US bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns and product variety. The modelling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non‐trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realised if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.