Future negotiating skills: a development issue?

This paper examines some critical implications for those managers wishing to be effective negotiators in the future. It draws on the findings of two recent research projects conducted by the authors. These projects focus on the contribution of language to good negotiating practice and, in particular, to intended “Win–Win” outcomes. From the findings set out, it is argued that negotiators often pay an insufficient amount of attention to an appreciation of language-related influences in the negotiating process. It is contended that this lack of attention also extends to the typical training provided for managers in all types of organisations. It concludes with the view that meta language and other language forms need to be given considerably more attention if managers are to be able to behave effectively in the increasingly crucial field of negotiating.     

Growing talent as if your business depended on it

Traditionally, corporate boards have left leadership planning and development very much up to their CEOs and human resources departments-primarily because they don't perceive that a lack of leadership development in their companies poses the same kind of threat that accounting blunders or missed earnings do. That's a shortsighted view, the authors argue. Companies whose boards and senior executives fail to prioritize succession planning and leadership development end up experiencing a steady attrition in talent and becoming extremely vulnerable when they have to cope with inevitable upheavals- integrating an acquired company with a different operating style and culture, for instance, or reexamining basic operating assumptions when a competitor with a leaner cost structure emerges. Firms that haven't focused on their systems for building their bench strength will probably make wrong decisions in these situations. In this article, the authors explain what makes a successful leadership development program, based on their research over the past few years with companies in a range of industries. They describe how several forward-thinking companies (Tyson Foods, Starbucks, and Mellon Financial, in particular) are implementing smart, integrated, talent development initiatives. A leadership development program should not comprise stand-alone, ad hoc activities coordinated by the human resources department, the authors say. A company's leadership development processes should align with strategic priorities. From the board of directors on down, senior executives should be deeply involved in finding and growing talent, and line managers should be evaluated and promoted expressly for their contributions to the organization-wide effort. HR should be allowed to create development tools and facilitate their use, but the business units should take responsibility for development activities, and the board should ultimately oversee the whole system.     

Art: Futures of the past

This essay makes a demand: it calls for a divorce between art and culture in order to reaffirm a future for art. It asks whether in a scenario in which political culture has surrendered to cultural politics, can art reaffirm and reconfigure itself as a site of exuberance, wonder, vitality, affect, memory and learning, and create a place of ethical and critical resistance?     

Land, conflict, identity in India’s north-east: negotiating the future

Even a peripheral examination of major conflicts across the world reveals that these revolve around one critical natural resource: land. Whether in the Middle East, Ireland or closer home in Jammu and Kashmir, the battle is between those who believe in a boundary authorized by a particular political dispensation and those who believe that their ethnic and sub-nationalistic or nationalistic claims surpass such barriers. The North East of India, that little wedge of land protruding above Bangladesh, jutting into and flanked by Tibet/China, Myanmar and Bhutan, is a fascinating example of how mindsets and attitudes combined with intensely competitive and unbending views of history and geography make ethnic and demographic problems extremely difficult to resolve. Patronage by the Central Government, which is resented, and the physical and emotional distance from the mainland have combined to produce a strange psyche of dependence, bitterness and alienation in the region. Despite the seeming lack of answers for the future, it is evident that the region has to build on its natural advantage in terms of abundant natural resources. Greater degrees of autonomy with extensive powers to village “republics”, based on tradition, but with a definite change towards gender sensitivity and representation, can show the way forward.     

Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels

Recent advances in testing for the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks. One weakness of such tests, however, is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross-section units are stationary. As a consequence, a reservation for PPP analyses based on such tests is that a small number of real exchange rates in a given panel may drive the results. In this paper we examine the PPP hypothesis focusing on the stationarity of the real exchange rates in up to 25 OECD countries. We introduce a methodology that when applied to a set of established panel unit-root tests, allows the identification of the real exchange rates that are stationary. Our results reveal evidence of mean-reversion that is significantly stronger as compared to that obtained by the existing literature, strengthening the case for PPP.     

Getting comfortable with the numbers: Auditing and the micro-production of macro-order

Field observations of two audit engagements are used to interpret auditing as a ritual which transforms the financial statements of corporate management from an inherently untrustworthy state into a form that the auditors and the public can be comfortable with. The analysis draws on Collins' theory of interaction ritual chains (American Journal of Sociology, 1981, pp. 984–1014) to create an interpretative theory of auditing which offers insights into both the micro-level interactions within the audit team and the macro-level role of auditing in the economic order.     

Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany

Among the various strategies studied in this paper, only momentum investing appears to earn persistently nonzero returns: From 1965 to 2014, the classical momentum strategy based on performance over the previous 2–12 months earned an average return of 1.57% per month (excluding microcap stocks and value-weighted returns). In the most recent 10-year period, this return was even larger—2.27%—which is much larger than in the USA. However, profitability net of transaction costs is weak because the strategy involves trading in disproportionately small stocks with high transaction costs, something that is particularly true for the loser portfolio. A strategy that concentrates only on the winner portfolio and thus avoids potential problems associated with (short) selling the costly loser portfolio appears to earn strong and persistently abnormal profits, even after transaction costs.     

Predictions, past and present: World and Caribbean tourism

This paper argues that, given the complexity of the variables involved in tourism itself and the vast array of factors in the broader environment that can affect tourism, it is daring for anyone to try to predict the future of tourism, particularly on a regional scale, such as for the Caribbean. The paper begins with Burkart and Medlik's 1974 predictions about the future of global tourism, one of the first attempts to do so [A.J. Burkart, S. Medlik, Tourism: Past, Present, and Future, Heinemann, London, 1974]. When each of their predictions is evaluated in the current context, it is proposed that just over half of their predictions have come true. Given the vast number of knowns and unknowns affecting global tourism, their attempt was quite bold and instructive. A set of predictions concerning the future of Caribbean tourism is then presented, in an effort to demonstrate that predicting the future of tourism is akin to predicting the future of a “mess.”     

Getting the Unemployed Back to Work: The Role of Targeted Wage Subsidies

This paper examines alternative approaches to wage subsidy programmes. It does this in the context of a recent active labour market reform for the young unemployed in Britain. This New Deal reform and the characteristics of the target group are examined in detail. We discuss theoretical considerations, the existing empirical evidence and propose two strategies for evaluation. The first suggests an ex-post trend adjusted difference in difference estimator. The second, relates to a model based ex-ante evaluation. We present the conditions for each to provide a reliable evaluation and fit some of the crucial parameters using data from the British Labour Force Survey. We stress that the success of this type of labour market programmes hinge on dynamic aspects of the youth labour market, in particular the pay-off to experience and training.     

Commentary: Performance Audit of PPPs – Getting the Basics Right

Performance auditing (PA) is an important vehicle for assessing Value for Money (VFM) of Public‐Private Partnerships (PPPs), as well as providing assurance to the Parliament and to the public about the accountability for the supporting strategic and operational frameworks. Experience to date with PPPs in Australia has been limited and mixed in terms of results. Few projects have reached the mature stage, let alone been completed. It has been suggested that we can learn from the audit approaches and systems developed by the National Audit Office in the UK. Australian Audit Offices need to ensure that they have robust PA/VFM auditing systems, analytical methodologies and tools in place to undertake quality evaluations at various stages of a PPP, but experience to date at federal and state levels also indicates that there is still a lot to do to get the basis elements of PPPs “right”.     

Evolution of controversial fields: lessons from the past for futures

Some intriguing analogies are drawn between futures studies today and the social sciences in their emergent period. Similar career trajectories are posited for such controversial fields of research, with their novel approaches in terms of claims advanced, and social reactions. The analogies cover the growth of professionalism, the development of internal self-criticism, and increasingly arbitrary boundaries. A distinction is made between English-speaking and Continental futures.     

Banking lessons from the past: The 1938 regulatory Agreement interpreted

We show that the interagency 1938 Uniform Agreement on Bank Supervisory Procedures set the precedent for dynamically varying supervisory standards to conform to national macroeconomic policies and political agendas. Our evidence indicates that the conferences leading to the Agreement were motivated and dominated by the Federal Reserve. Contrary to the goals of the other banking agencies, the Fed sought greater leniency in bank examination in order to stimulate bank credit creation. This precedent for softening examination standards was paralleled in 1991–1992 when the administration and regulatory agencies attempted to offset a proclaimed credit crunch by subordinating bank examinations to the perceived need for more bank credit. The implied risk of trading off bank safety for short-lived economic policies merits more open national debate.Our earlier work on this topic was partially supported by the National Center on Financial Studies, University of California, Berkeley.     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.     

Socially responsible investment funds: Investor reaction to current and past returns

This paper investigates and compares the determinants of fund flows for socially responsible investment (SRI) funds and conventional funds. We consider the impact of current and past measures of monthly and annual return on fund flow. The results suggest SRI fund flows are less sensitive to returns than conventional funds. Our model also shows that flow is persistent and SRI investors are more likely to invest in a fund they already own relative to conventional investors. These results reflect the difficulty SRI investors face in finding alternative investments that meet their non-financial goals.     

'Presenting' the past: perspectives on time for accounting and management history

Concepts of time in accounting and management historiography have only previously been considered as partial subsets of other methodological issues. This paper investigates our concepts of historical time with a view to offering alternative foundations to the unidirectional linear concept of chronological time employed in historical research project design and execution. Its analytical approach is pluralist in that it draws upon the historiographic writings of historians and historical theorists of traditional and post-modern persuasions, both within and beyond the accounting and management history fields. It addresses teleological, historicist and narrativist temporal underpinnings and considers historical practice in relation to assumptions about and interpretations of continuity and discontinuity. Time is extended beyond its conventional accounting and management chronology to include consideration of co-present, cyclical, relativist, structuralist and spatial time. Intrinsic and reflexive relationships between past, present and future are explored. The paper argues for a postmodern pluralisation of our historiographic approaches to time and their informing revisitations of historical accounting and management subjects with a view to better understanding that which we thought we already knew.