INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS OF VOLATILITY INCREASES AROUND LARGE STOCK SPLITS AS IMPLIED IN CALL OPTION PREMIA

Recent studies find abnormal common stock price behavior associated with ex-dates of stock splits. Volatility increases are substantia) and abrupt. This study extends previous analyses to the options market by examining investor perceptions of volatility increases through implied standard deviations of returns. Investors fail to anticipate volatility increases until the ex-date. Furthermore, abnormal option returns are present. The increased volatility and these results suggest option market inefficiency.     

STOCK PRICE PROCESSES WITH DISCONTINUOUS TIME PATHS: AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION

This paper discusses the statistical properties of a mixed stochastic process and conducts a thorough empirical test of the process for an extensive group of common stocks and portfolios of stocks. It is found that a homogeneous diffusion process does not adequately describe stock price fluctuations and that there are significant discontinuities in the sample paths of stock prices. This result holds for both individual stocks and portfolios of various sizes. The statistical fit of a particular mixed diffusion-jump process to sample data is also demonstrated.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF AN EX-ANTE MODEL OF THE DETERMINATION OF STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY

The assumption that changing expected cash flows and discount factors affect a security's return is at the foundation of many financial models. This study examines empirically the hypothesis that expected stock return variability is a function of cash flow and discount rate uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimation techniques and expectational data are employed. Strong, positive relationships are found, verifying the foundations of the ex-ante models with ex-ante data and providing a better understanding of security markets by explaining, in part, the causes of expected stock price variability.     

HEDGING WITH INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUTURES: AN INTERTEMPORAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

In this paper we extend the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method by applying the theory of cointegration to hedging with stock index futures contracts for France (CAC 40), the United Kingdom (FTSE 100), Germany (DAX), and Japan (NIKKEI). Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratios obtained from the error correction method are superior to those obtained from the traditional method as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Using the procedures developed in this paper, hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE COMMODITY OPTION PRICING MODEL USING GINNIE MAE CALL OPTIONS

This paper tests the ability of Black's commodity option pricing model to provide prices for over-the-counter Ginnie Mae call options, which are not significantly different from actual market prices. The test is applied to a unique data set on option prices and Ginnie Mae forward contracts, furnished by a brokerage house specializing in trading government-backed securities. The model generates prices close to those actually available when trading is reasonably active.     

DYNAMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND THE JAPANESE STOCK MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) in a system of seven equations, we find that the Japanese stock market is cointegrated with a group of six macroeconomic variables. The signs of the long-term elasticity coefficients of the macroeconomic variables on stock prices generally support the hypothesized equilibrium relations. Our findings are robust to different combinations of macroeconomic variables in six-dimension systems and two subperiods. Also, the VECM consistently outperforms the vector autoregressive model in forecasting ability.