投资决策预算新思考

一、要重新认识投资决策预算的一些基本问题投资决策分为长期和短期投资决策,相应地投资决策预算也就有长短期之分。投资决策预算对我国大部分企业而言是个薄弱环节,也是长期困扰企业战略管理的关键问题。1.长期投资决策预算采用现金折现法。为了提高其科学性和合理性,在估算折现率和现金流量时,常采用现金流量折现法进行。这样,既不要人为夸大风险、高估折现率、低估现金流量,也不要不考虑风险、低估折现率、高估现金流量。因为现代长期投资决策模式多采用复利折现法,高估或低估折现率,对未来远期现金流量的现值将有很大影响,会淘汰那些未…     

现金流量法在项目经济评价与矿业权评估中的应用

目前，现金流量法在项目经济评价和矿业权评估中已得到广泛应用。根据建设部第三版《方法与参数》及国土资源部第三版《矿业权评估指南》中有关参数确定的原则，采用现金流量法对同一项目进行财务评价及矿业权评估时，当项目财务评价基准收益率大于矿业权评估折现率时，其项目评价的内部收益率小于该项目的基准收益率，故出现了该项目财务评价结论为不可行的问题。为解决上述问题，笔者提出了对相关参数选取确定的改进建议。     

PPP项目资金价值PSC评价法的改进探讨

资金价值评估是目前PPP项目经济评价的核心。作为目前国际应用前景最广阔 的方法,PSC评价法被广泛应用于PPP项目的资金价值评估。但是,PSC评价法存在过多假设条件、折现率取值和周期性等缺陷。针对我国目前PPP项目评估现状,通过对PSC评价法存在问题的分析,从PSC值确定、风险调整以及折现率方面对PSC评价法进行改进,并提出契合我国具体国情的保障措施,最后通过案例分析对PSC评价法的运用进行了说明。     

PPP项目资金价值PSC评价法的改进探讨

资金价值评估是目前PPP项目经济评价的核心。作为目前国际应用前景最广阔的方法, PSC评价法被广泛应用于PPP项目的资金价值评估。但是,PSC评价法存在过多假设条件、折现率取值和周期性等缺陷。针对我国目前PPP项目评估现状,通过对PSC评价法存在问题的分析,从PSC值确定、风险调整以及折现率方面对PSC评价法进行改进,并提出契合我国具体国情的保障措施,最后通过案例分析对PSC评价法的运用进行了说明。     

确定折现率的方法研究

运用收益现值法进行企业整体资产评估的一个重要参数就是资产收益率,即折现率。准确地估算折现率对于收益现值法的运用起着关键的作用。目前,确定折现率的方法主要有两种:一是β系数法,一是风险累加法。在证券市场发育较完善的国家;一般都采用β系数法来确定折现率,但目前我国的证券市场才起步不久,使该方法的应用受到限制。目前我国在确定折现率时,大多采用风险累加法,即分析企业生存所面临的各种风险,进行累加,确定折现率,该方法的公式如下:     

房地产项目的投资决策分析流程再造研究

章介绍了业务流程再造的基本内涵，并就房地产项目的投资决策分析流程进行重点研究，对房地产项目的投资决策分析流程进行了重新构建。     

投资评价在项目投资中的作用分析研究

投资评价是投资完成一定时间后,对投资决策、投资过程、投资效益、效果和投资影响等与项目立项时确定的目标以及技术、经济、环境、社会指标进行对比,找出差别和变化,分析原因,总结经验,汲取教训,得到启示,提出对策建议,通过信息反馈,改善新一轮投资管理和决策,达到提高投资效益的目的。本文将对项目投资过程中投资评价的内容意义进行简要分析,希望对于改进工程投资决策有一定指导意义。     

建设项目评价中加权平均成本的确定及其作用

现行财务基准收益率不敌视尖于社会主义市场经济的发展对项目评价的需要，资金加权平均成本作为一种确定财务折现率和基准收益率的计算方法在国外项目评价中被广泛应用。文中介绍了资金加权平均成本的计算方法及其作用。     

实物期权方法在多项目投资决策中的应用

近几年来实物期权方法在项目投资决策中得到了越来越多的应用，国内外学术界也对实物期权方法及其应用进行了诸多的讨论，但其研究对象都是对单个项目而言，而本文主要探讨了实物期权方法在多项目投资决策中的应用，即怎样利用实物期权方法对多个项目的投资做出动态的最优决策。     

浅谈公益金提取对项目投资现金流量分析的影响

在财务管理体系中,关于项目投资评价有一套传统的分析方法——项目投资现金流量法。该方法通过分析与项目相关的现金流量和风险来确定一个项目投资是否可行。首先,这种方法以收付实现制假设为基础,充分考虑到现金流量对现代企业的重要意义,通过目标项目所引起的现金流入和现金流出的比较来确定此项投资是否可行。另一方面,通过对折现率的确定,既体现了对风险的评价,也体     

项目投资决策中折现率的选择

项目投资是否可行需要根据决策评价指标来判断,而评价指标的计算离不开折现率,其高低对决策结果起着关键性作用.所以,要正确选择折现率,提高决策质量.     

The Maximum Prospective Value Criterion

In this paper the authors analyze the logic of the capital budgeting decision in two different settings. First it is assumed that the decision-maker has complete information about both his current and future investment opportunities in which case the decision problem reduces basically to a computing problem. Second it is assumed that the decision maker has complete information about his current investment opportunities and a knowledge of his expectations about future investment opportunities.

The authors analyze the logic underlying the selection of the capital growth (discount) rate that should be used in determining whether a marginal increment of investment should be accepted or rejected. If the marginal increment were rejected, the unused cash would typically be invested temporarily in a highly liquid investment at a relatively low interest rate with the prospect that a better than marginal investment would absorb the funds at the next decision time.

The analysis led to the formulation of a capital-budgeting decision criterion, called the Maximum Prospective Value Criterion, which is presented in this article. As its name implies, the criterion is designed to select the set of investments that has the maximum prospective value, given the decision-maker's expectations about his future investment opportunities. This criterion relates the capital-budgeting decision to the opportunity-cost and marginal-analysis concepts of classical economics. The present-worth criterion of engineering economy is shown to be a special case of the Maximum Prospective Value Criterion, and the minimum at tractive rate of return of engineering economy when properly selected appears to be closely related to the capital growth rate on the marginal increment of investment.     

风险贴现率法在工程项目风险决策分析中的运用

风险贴现率法是风险决策分析中常用的方法。章根据工程项目的特点，论述了在工程项目决策中引入风险贴现率法的可能性，以及针对实际情况调整风险贴现率的几种方法，同时也指出了风险贴现率法的局限性。     

DISCOUNT RATE VALUE AND CASH FLOW DEFINITION: A NEW RELATIONSHIP AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

This article uses different standpoints to approach the question of the consistency of project valuation methods. It shows that the NPV of a project can be obtained by discounting adjusted operating cash flows at a different rate from the risk-adjusted discount rate which should normally be used. Each of the conventional project valuation methods (standard WACC, equity residual, Arditti-Levy, APV) accordingly corresponds to a specific choice of the discount rate. Thus the convergence of these methods is obvious when the risk-adjusted discount rate integrates a debt ratio equal to the one of the project. Moreover, we obtain the Modigliani-Miller relationship generalized to the case of a project of any duration.     

被征地农民参加城镇企业职工基本养老保险的影响研究

运用模型模拟了不同的工资增长率、利率以及养老金年递增率下被征地农民参加城镇职工基本养老保险对城保的影响。研究发现,当工资增长率和利率差距不大,且养老金年递增率维持在一个较低的水平时,将被征地农民纳入城镇企业职工基本养老保险并不会产生巨大的资金缺口,因而其影响是中性的。但目前我国工资增长率要远远高于利率,将被征地农民纳入城镇企业职工基本养老保险将会产生较大的资金缺口,因此将被征地农民纳入到＂城保＂一定要量力而行,已纳入的地区需要通过增加投资渠道等方式提高养老保险基金投资回报率,减少基金缺口。     

Optimal Interest Rate-Discount Points Combination: Strategy for Mortgage Contract Terms

This paper is distinguished from previous papers by its focus on income-producing properties, rather than owner-occupied single-family residential properties. The real estate investor's strategy, in terms of choosing an interest rate-discount points combination, is analyzed by using a discounted cash flow approach. Under this framework, the investor with a lower marginal tax rate, lower required rate of return and longer investment horizon tends to negotiate for a mortgage contract with a higher number of discount points and lower interest rate. In addition, an intermediate rate-points combination is preferred by an investor only when the lender's required interest rate is a decreasing convex function of the number of discount points.     

Integrating Research on Markets for Space and Capital†

This article discusses the importance of recognizing that there are two distinct but interrelated real estate markets: the market for tenant space and the market for investment capital. The use decision is made in the space market whereas the investment decision is made in the capital market. The article points out that past research has tended to focus on a separate analysis of each of these two markets. That is, research historically has focused on understanding how changes in supply and demand affect equilibrium in either the space market or the capital market as if each market was autonomous. A graphical framework is illustrated that can be used to examine the effect of an exogenous shock to market equilibrium from either the market for space or the market for capital.     

关于不确定情况下净现值投资评价指标的探讨

文章对在不确定性情况下净现值（NPV）投资评价指标的有效性进行了探讨，提出在运用该指标评价项目时必须要考虑到风险的大小对项目决策的影响，并根据投资项目的统计特征。阐述了在此情况下该指标的计算。最后以实例进一步说明该计算方法的有效性。从而使项目的投资决策更为科学合理。     

投资项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

投资项目财务评价是可行性研究报告的核心内容之一,而内部收益率是判断项目财务可行性和预期盈利能力的主要指标。从内部收益率的经济含义入手,分析了项目投资内部收益率、项目资本金内部收益率和投资各方内部收益率3类内部收益率的适用条件和数量关系,认为项目投资内部收益率是项目融资前决策的首选指标,且只需计算所得税前指标;资本金内部收益率是项目融资决策分析的主要指标,当项目投资内部收益率大于银行利率时,资本金内部收益率大于项目投资内部收益率;当各股东（投资方）同股非同权或存在股权之外的收益分配时,需要计算投资各方内部收益率。     

Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Alternative Selection Using a Fuzzy Annual Worth Criterion

Very often, in industry, discounted cash flow techniques are applied for analyzing and selecting investment alternatives under consideration. These techniques are usually based on the data under certainty or risk. In reality, however, the decision makers are often facing the situation of vague cash flows and discount rates, or even uncertain durations, when evaluating and selecting potential investments. Fuzzy set theory has the capability of capturing vague data and allows mathematical operations. This article proposes a fuzzy equivalent uniform annual worth (fuzzy EUAW) method to assist practitioners in evaluating investment alternatives utilizing the theory of fuzzy sets. Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) are used throughout the analysis to represent the uncertain cash flows and discount rates. Further, fuzzy capital recovery factors and fuzzy sinking fund factor are derived. Using these two factors, the fuzzy equivalent annual worth of each investment alternative can be found. By ranking these fuzzy numbers with the integral value, the optimal investment alternative is selected. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the results of the alternative selection.