New capital estimates for China

Data on physical capital are an indispensable part of economic growth and efficiency studies. In the case of China, economy-wide fixed asset series are usually derived by aggregating gross fixed capital formation (net of depreciation) over time, and sectoral/ownership-specific series by correcting the limited official fixed asset data available. These procedures, to varying degrees, ignore that (i) gross fixed capital formation does not equal investment, (ii) investment does not equal the value of fixed assets newly created through investment, (iii) depreciation is an accounting measure that bears no necessary relation to changes in the production capacity of fixed assets, (iv) official fixed asset data, where available, incorporate significant revaluations in the 1990s, and (v) “net fixed assets” do not measure the contribution of fixed assets to production.This paper derives economy-wide fixed asset values for 1953–2003, correcting for these shortcomings. It uses both the traditional, cumulative approach and a new, so far unexplored method of combining economy-wide depreciation values and an economy-wide depreciation rate to directly yield economy-wide fixed assets. The derived fixed asset time series are evaluated in a comparison with each other as well as with series in the literature, leading to the recommendation of a specific choice of fixed asset time series.     

Did banks cause the German industrialization?

In this paper, we discuss the causal relationship between growth of bank assets and economic performance (economic growth, capital accumulation, productivity). We analyze new data for German banking (Burhop, C., 2002. Die Entwicklung der deutschen Aktienkreditbanken von 1848 bis 1913: Quantifizierungsversuche. Bankhistorisches Archiv 28, 103-128.) and improved national accounting data (Burhop, C., Wolff, G.B., 2005. A compromise estimate of Germany’s Net National Product 1851-1913 and its relevance for economic growth and cycles. forthcoming, Journal of Economic History.) with several recent VAR/VEC based causality tests. Only weak evidence for a causal influence of banks on economic performance on a nation-wide level is detected. On the other hand, the results support the bank-led growth hypothesis for the modern sector of the German economy. In particular, joint-stock credit banks positively influenced capital formation during the early decades of Germany’s industrialization.     

经济学视野下环境成本的会计内涵:规制驱动抑或责任驱动

从经济学的角度来看,环境是一项资产,对环境资源的使用应该付费。然而,环境资源负外部性效应的存在导致环境成本会计不可能在企业内部自动产生。是什么驱动企业等经济实体确认环境的使用成本,是环境规制的驱动抑或是环境责任的驱动？文章基于环境规制、环境责任与环境成本的联系来探讨环境成本的会计内涵,并厘清经济学与会计学不同观念上环境成本之间的关联度具重要的理论价值。     

On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

The national wealth of Sweden, 1810–2014

This study presents a new database, the Swedish National Wealth Database, which contains annual data on private, public, and national wealth and sectoral saving rates in Sweden over the past two centuries. The paper reviews previous investigations of national wealth, compares their estimates with the ones presented here and discusses method approaches and measurement problems. The main results from data series are presented for assets and liabilities and their subcomponents, for the private and public domestic and foreign sectors. By complementing the past literature with its traditional focus on economic flow variables to understand long-run economic developments, this new database offers potentially new perspectives on a number of important issues in Sweden's economic history.     

Capital Formation during the Industrial Revolution Revisited: Insurance Valuations and Some New Sectoral Estimates

National accounting and sectoral estimates of capital formation have underscored the picture of a "cut-price" industrialization in Britain with low capital requirements. Feinstein′s recent revisions to his earlier figures however have substantially increased the estimated level of capital stock in manufacturing during the late 18th century. This paper reexamines the sectoral estimates of capital in the cotton and wool textile industries for the period 1788-1835. The reliability of insurance valuations as a basis for these estimates is questioned. New capital stock figures are produced which incorporate allowances for capital missing from the insurance data used in the existing estimates. The thrust of these new sectoral estimates is to lend further significance to capital accumulation in British manufacturing during the Industrial Revolution.     

速度管理:企业竞争致胜的制高点

知识经济条件下 ,人力资源是企业四大资源中最重要的资源。人力资源会计作为会计系统中不可或缺的组成部分 ,应加强研究和推广。本文对人力资产的界定、人力资本的计量、人力资本在资产负债表中的列示等问题进行了初步的探讨。     

Long-Term Attachments and Long-Run Firm Rates of Return

Long-term attachments between workers and firms are common. Numerous studies have examined worker returns to tenure, but little is known of firm returns to firm-worker matches. Yet these attachments represent a human capital asset quasi-held by the firm, which is not captured by traditional accounting measures of firm assets. Firms with large quasi-holdings of human capital will have higher measured return on assets, other things equal. Analysis of data on 250 large manufacturing firms supports the view that firms profit from long-term attachments with their workers. Consequently, unmeasured human capital assets contribute to the explanation of persistence in measured long-run excess profits across firms.     

Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

A number of recent economic modelling studies have attempted to analyse resource efficiency and the circular economy. However, modelling analysis in this area is relatively underdeveloped. In particular, many CGE models are unable to provide significant insight given their aggregated sectoral coverage. Here we describe the development of the Environmental Global Applied General Equilibrium (ENGAGE-materials) model created to consider the economic and sectoral effects of potential policies on a circular economy and resource efficiency, which affect materials and resources at the stages of extraction, production and recycling. Our policy scope is global with a special emphasis on China and Europe, as both regions have dedicated policies in place and indicate their willingness to take the lead. The case of steel is relevant as it is a key material for all economies across the world and offers a range of interesting features for circularity and sustainability. ENGAGE-materials models iron ore mining, primary production of iron and steel, secondary production of iron and steel, and steel scrap recycling at the global level. We utilise this technology rich framework to provide preliminary results on scenarios comprising economic insights into a saturation effect and straightforward policy such as doubling the availability of secondary steel.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

Engel versus Baumol: Accounting for structural change using two centuries of U.S. data

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States.     

Asset price inflation and monetary policy

It is crucial that central banks and regulatory authorities be aware of effects of asset price inflation on the stability of the financial system. Lending activity based on asset collateral during the boom is hazardous to the health of lenders when the boom collapses. One way that authorities can curb the distortion of lenders' portfolios during asset price booms is to have in place capital requirements that increase with the growth of credit extensions collateralized by assets whose prices have escalated. If financial institutions avoid this pitfall, their soundness will not be impaired when assets backing loans fall in value. Rather than trying to gauge the effects of asset prices on core inflation, central banks may be better advised to be alert to the weakening of financial balance sheets in the aftermath of a fall in value of asset collateral backing loans.William S. Vickery Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-Fourth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Washington, D.C., October 10–13, 2002.     

Measuring Green Productivity Growth for China's Manufacturing Sectors: 1991–2000*

Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8–10 percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non‐marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy‐makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare‐based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non‐desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time‐series input–output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.     

金融资产配置与股价信息含量

股价信息含量作为资本定价效率的重要体现，其对于抑制"脱实向虚"实现金融服务实体经济起着关键作用。文章着眼于我国企业大量配置金融资产这一现实，探究了其对股价信息含量的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股上市公司数据的实证检验表明：金融资产具有"盈余管理"功能，管理层可能出于"盈余管理"动机配置金融资产，恶化公司信息环境，最终降低了股价信息含量。具体而言，企业通过操纵金融资产确认类别、公允价值估值及终止确认等方式达到盈余管理目的。当公司盈余管理动机较为强烈时，金融资产对股价信息含量的降低作用更加明显。完善的法律体制及有效的内部治理有助于缓解两者之间的负向关系。文章结论为我国企业持有金融资产提供了新解释，揭示了"脱实向虚"作用于实体经济的路径，同时丰富了会计政策选择的经济后果，为推动我国会计准则改革具有一定的启示意义。     

A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity

This paper develops a simple accounting framework that measures the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity. This framework is based on a multi-sector equilibrium model with sector-specific frictions in the form of taxes on sectoral factor inputs. Our framework is flexible for the assumption on preferences or aggregate production functions. Moreover, this framework is consistent with that commonly used in productivity analysis. I apply this framework to measure the extent to which resource misallocation explains the difference in aggregate productivity across developed countries. I find that around 9 percentage points of the difference in the measured aggregate productivity between Japan and the US can be accounted for by resource misallocation. Using the framework, I also decompose the causes of the misallocation effect.     

Economic Benefits and Environmental Costs of China's Exports: A Comparison with the USA Based on Network Analysis

This paper decomposes economic benefits (value‐added) and environmental costs (CO₂) of exports according to their sources, and maps the global value network (GVN) and the global emissions network (GEN) for China's exports during 1995–2009 from national, sectoral and national–sectoral perspectives. A comparison is conducted between China and the USA. National GVN and GEN show that shares of value‐added and CO₂ emissions from China in its GVN and GEN both decreased first then increased after 2006, while shares from the USA in its GVN and GEN generally decreased. Sectoral GVN and GEN show that among China's exports, “electrical and optical equipment” and “electricity, gas and water supply” were, respectively, the sectors that obtained the most value‐added and emitted the most CO₂. National–sectoral GVN and GEN for China exhibited reciprocal and disassortative patterns, and in‐strengths and out‐strengths of GVN and GEN for China's exports were mainly captured by several domestic country–sector pairs.     

Development and the Environment in Asia

Economic growth and environmental damage are associated, but the relationship is neither linear nor even monotonic. This is clearly seen in the diverse experiences of tropical Asian economies over recent decades. The nature of the growth–environment link depends on the changing composition of production and on growth-related changes in techniques and environmental policies; the enforcement of property rights over natural resources and over air and water quality is another important element. Moreover, environmental and economic policies interact: in effect, every economic policy that affects resource allocation is a de facto environmental measure. One important implication is that the environmental consequences of major policy shifts, such as the 'globalisation' of many tropical Asian economies since about 1980, have been profound. The analytical literature on growth and the environment in Asia tends to agree that environmental damage is costly to regional economies, and has begun to identify and quantify some of the many causal linkages now recognised between economic development and the valuation and use of environmental and natural resource assets.     

关于资产证券化的金融特性

资产证券化如同许多金融创新一样 ,最早起源于美国 ,而美国也是目前资产证券化最为发达的国家。资产证券化 (Securitization)的内涵是 ,将在当前和未来可产生现金流而流动性较差的金融资产组合为特定的资产集 ,再配以相应的金融服务支持 ,将之转变为可在资本市场上销售和流通的资产支持证券 (Asset -Backedsecuritization)的过程。简言之 ,资产证券化是将特定资产的未来现金流转化为可交易证券的金融过程。与一般的金融过程或融资过程相比较 ,资产证券化具有独特的金融特性 ,本文拟对此进行分析。     

Satellite and resource accounting as tools for tourism planning in southern Africa

The potential for improvements to tourism planning through development of tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) to measure economic activity, and tourism asset resource accounts (TARAs) to measure the natural asset base, was studied in southern Africa. It was concluded that economic efficiency in tourism development would be enhanced if all the countries pursue plans to develop TSA, TARA and economic models for tourism planning. Basic TSA, including consumption, production, supply and use, employment and capital tables are required. TSA development should take place step by step, with specific data collection surveys and agreements between the stakeholders. Surveys should be focused on both tourists and the suppliers of tourism products, and should be carried out by central tourism agencies in collaboration with national accounting agencies. TARAs should involve both physical accounts for specific resources, such as water or wildlife, as well as land accounts for general tourism activity and potential. TSAs and TARAs should be integrated with input-output/social accounting matrix modelling tools. Countries should match the rigour of their TSA and TARA development with their anticipated capacity for analysis and planning. Donors could assist in the process, especially in a regional context.     

Information advantages,excessive risk-taking,and capital regulation for BigTechs in financial intermediation

This paper establishes theoretical models to study capital regulation of BigTech firms (BigTechs hereafter) providing financial intermediation services. In our models, BigTechs borrow debts to invest between socially efficient prudent assets and socially inefficient risky assets. Limited liabilities imply that with a higher capital adequacy ratio, BigTechs are more risk averse and favor the prudent asset more. Then we examine how better information of BigTechs will affect BigTechs' incentive for excessive risk-taking, welfare, and capital regulation. The major results produced by our models are as follows: (1) Better information of BigTechs does not eliminate and could in some circumstances exacerbate their excessive risk-taking behavior. (2) Better information of BigTechs does not necessarily improve welfare. BigTechs could employ better information to more precisely identify the socially inefficient risky asset to invest in, causing more severe resource misallocation. (3) Capital regulation is an effective tool to curb BigTechs' excessive risk-taking and to ensure that better information of BigTechs will improve welfare.