Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect

I search for a “scale” effect in countries. I use a panel data set that includes 200 countries over forty years and link the population of a country to a host of economic and social phenomena. Using both graphical and statistical techniques, I search for an impact of size on the level of income, inflation, material well-being, health, education, the quality of a country's institutions, heterogeneity, and a number of different international indices and rankings. I have little success; small countries are more open to international trade than large countries, but are not systematically different otherwise. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 482–507.     

The Currency Denomination of World Trade after European Monetary Union

This paper addresses the question of which role the currencies of the three major economies in the world might play in global trade after European economic and monetary union. Based on historical data about trade flows and invoicing practices as well as “G-3” economies' inflation records, it is argued that, most likely, the U.S. dollar will maintain its dominant role in trade denomination for quite an extended period of time after the European changeover. From the data discussed, the euro will immediately take on the role of the second most important trade vehicle currency, well in advance of the Japanese yen. Due to network effects, the euro is likely to gradually expand its share in global trade invoicing thereafter, primarily at the expense of the dollar in Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, and, perhaps, also in Asia.J. Japan Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 424–454. London School of Economics, Financial Markets Group and CEPR, European Central Bank, DG Research, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F19, F14, F33, F49, E41.     

Is Japan's trade (still) different?

Does Japanese trade in manufactured goods differ from the rest-of-the world average and from the US? We use a simple industry-level gravity model and 1981–1998 data to answer this question. We construct a measure of normalized imports by dividing bilateral industry-level imports by the importer's aggregate absorption and the exporter's industry output. We find that Japan imports less than other countries, but also exports less than other countries. Relative to the US, Japanese export performance is half as strong today as it was in the mid-1980s. Bilaterally, Japan is more open to imports from the US than the US is to imports from Japan. This means that the US runs a trade surplus with Japan in normalized imports of manufactured goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 507–519.     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances

This paper investigates whether the elderly save or dissave in light of two newly available sets of cross-section micro data, the 1983 “Survey of Consumer Finance” for the United States and the 1984 “National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” for Japan. Contrary to dominant earlier findings we find for the United States that families after retirement dissave on average about a third of their peak wealth by the time of death, leaving the rest (mostly their homes) as bequests. For Japan, special handling is made to eliminate possible sample selection bias due to the different economic characteristics of the elderly forming independent households and those living with children. We find that the elderly belonging to both groups continue to save, and moreover, there appear to be significant signs of ongoing wealth transfer between the generations. The data in both countries also show that the elasticity of saving with respect to a life time income measure is significantly greater than unity, and more strongly so within higher age groups. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 450–491. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297, and National Bureau of Economic Research.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

Thinking About the Liquidity Trap

The phenomenon of the liquidity trap—defined as a situation in which even a zero interest rate is insufficiently low to produce full employment—has taken on new importance with the persistent slump in Japan. This paper restates recent theoretical work on liquidity traps, drawing a link between “intertemporal” models that are mainly concerned with demonstrating the underlying logic, and more ad hoc models that bear directly on policy; it then reexamines policy alternatives, including fiscal stimulus and inflation targeting. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 221–237. Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544-1013 Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, E58, E31, F31.     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?

This paper analyzes how country size affects exchange rate policy and volatility. A hump shaped relation between exchange rate variability and the size of countries is generated in the theoretical model: exchange rate variability increases with country size for small countries but then decreases for large countries. The paper finds that this theoretical prediction holds well for bilateral exchange rates of the OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 1995 as well as for a subsample of European exchange rates with respect to the dollar. The results suggest that the dollar/euro volability may be lower than the present dollar/DM volatility.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 455–482. CERAS-ENPC, Graduate Institute of International Studies, and CEPR, 28 rue des Saints Pères, Paris 75007, France.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F33, F41, F42.     

The Spread of Industry: Spatial Agglomeration in Economic Development

This paper describes the spread of industry from country to country as a region grows. All industrial sectors are initially agglomerated in one country, tied together by input–output links between firms. Growth expands industry more than other sectors, bidding up wages in the country in which industry is clustered. At some point firms start to move away, and when a critical mass is reached industry expands into another country, raising wages there. We establish the circumstances in which industry spills over, which sectors move out first, and which are more important in triggering a critical mass.J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1996,10(4), pp. 440–464. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics; and London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Policy Research.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values

One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program—whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero—was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were greater when increases in the BOJ current account balance target were accompanied by “non-standard” expansionary policies, such as raising the ceiling on BOJ purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds. We also provide cross-sectional evidence that suggests that the market perceived that the quantitative easing program would disproportionately benefit financially weaker Japanese banks. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 699–721.     

How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?

In this paper, we have constructed a theoretical model in which the Asian firm maximizes its profit, competing with the Japanese and the U.S. firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-à-vis the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Then, the optimal basket weight that would minimize the fluctuation of the growth rate of trade balance was derived. These are the novel features of our model. The export price equation and export volume equation are estimated for several Asian countries for the sample period from 1981 to 1996. Results are generally reasonable. The optimal currency weights for the yen and the U.S. dollar are derived and compared with actual weights that had been adopted before the currency crisis of 1997. For all countries in the sample, it is shown that the optimal weight of the yen is significantly higher than the actual weight.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 256–304. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Takachiho University, Suginami, Tokyo 168, Japan.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, F33, O11.     

Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system

This paper examines intraday patterns of the exchange rate behavior, using the “firm” bid–ask quotes and transactions of USD-JPY and Euro-USD recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange markets. The U-shape of intraday activities (deals and price changes) is confirmed for Tokyo and London participants, but not for New York participants. Activities do not increase toward the end of business hours in the New York market, even on Fridays (ahead of weekend hours of non-trading). Return volatility is found to have intraday patterns similar to those of activities, and volatility and the bid–ask spread is negatively correlated. A negative correlation is observed between the number of deals and the width of bid–ask spread during business hours. It is also found that the concentration of transaction during overlapping business hours between Tokyo and London markets (London and New York markets) may arise from heterogeneous expectations among participants from different regions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 637–664.     

Development assistance: Trade versus aid and the relative performance of industrial countries

Given that both theory and empirical analyses show that foreign trade and aid have similar effects on the development process, this study develops a methodology for assessing the joint (aid plus trade) contribution of industrial countries. The results show that countries like Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which are generally regarded as having liberal aid policies, perform below average when the combined effects of aid and trade are considered while the United Kingdom, Netherland and Belgium emerge as making maximum contributions to development. In addition, the trade practices of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany largely offset these countries relatively poor aid record. The trade and aid contribution of the USSR and other socialist countries of Europe are also shown to fall far below that of the poorest performing DAC members. If the socialist countries matched average DAC performance measures their imports from developing countries would increase by $7 billion and their aid flows would be $3.1 billion higher. Finally, this study calls into question the rationale for uniform aid targets which do not account for the donor's differential trade contribution to the development effort.     

Regionalism: An Overview

Regional trading arrangements are proliferating. This overview considers some of their implications. Section I reviews the paradigm of traditional trade theory which emphasizes the "second best" nature of these arrangements. It also evaluates the conditions under which they are permitted by the GATT. Section II notes that these arrangements increasingly move beyond simply removing internal border barriers toward deeper forms of integration involving common behind-the-border policies and systems of governance. Taking account of these aspects of the arrangements requires a different analytic paradigm, which evaluates these arrangements as an alternative to national governance rather than simply as a means of liberalizing trade. Section III considers existing and emerging regional arrangements in Europe, North America, and Asia in light of these paradigms. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1994, 8(4), pp. 365–387. John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts; and Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.     

Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation “success.” By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that “consolidation fatigue” and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt–GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist. Applying our results to European countries in the 1990s provides only weak evidence suggesting that the Maastricht process contributed much to the fiscal consolidations observed in Europe during the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 512–535. ZEI, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; and CEPR; Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland; and CEPR; and ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; and ZEI. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E61, E62, E65.     

Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

The Washington Consensus: A post-mortem

After guiding development policies for nearly 20 years, the “Washington Consensus” lies in shambles. Although selected components remain relevant for development policies around the world, some specifics of the broader policy “package” and, more generally, the concept of a standardized package of policies applicable to all developing countries has clearly been discredited.Criticism has been directed at the assumed link from economic liberalization of international trade and financial flows to more rapid economic growth. Apart from a handful of developing countries, admittedly including some large and important ones, most of the world saw little of the promised economic benefit from widespread and on-going trade and financial liberalization, initially. Many countries actually regressed, when evaluated against broader socio-economic development goals, including income inequality. We conclude that differences in initial conditions (history, culture, geography and levels of industrial and institutional development) preclude any single development policy package from being universally effective.     

Cooperation or Confrontation in U.S.–Japan Trade? Some General Equilibrium Estimates

Using a detailed calibrated general equilibrium model, we evaluate the effects of greater cooperation or confrontation in bilateral trade relations between the U.S. and Japan. Our numerical results indicate that, if a trade war between the two were precipitated, the U.S. would eventually benefit from the mutual imposition of reciprocally optimal tariffs. While this result appears negative for those who advocate free trade, it provides the key to overcoming an important incentive problem of liberalization. Specifically, we find that Japan gains more from U.S. unilateral liberalization than from bilateral liberalization and thus has an incentive to limit its commitment to removing trade barriers. Since the U.S. has a credible threat of retaliation, however, it can bargain with Japan to implement bilateral cooperation. In other words, the strategic environment is neither completely harmonious nor discordant. A credible threat of confrontation can secure the basis of cooperation. J. Japan. Int. Econ. June 1999, 13(2), pp. 119–139. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan; and Department of Economics, Mills College, Oakland, California 94613, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F13, F14.