THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION

By using a Kaleckian model with debt accumulation, Hein (2007; Metroeconomica, 56 (2), pp. 310–39) found that the long‐run equilibrium value of the debt–capital ratio is positive and stable only if interest rates are extremely high and if the short‐run equilibrium exhibits the ‘debt‐led’ growth regime. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption that the retention ratio of firms is equal to unity. By relaxing this assumption, we show that there exists a positive and stable long‐run equilibrium even under the ‘debt‐burdened’ regime without any constraint on the nominal interest rate.     

SHAREHOLDER VALUE ORIENTATION,DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH—SHORT‐ AND MEDIUM‐RUN EFFECTS IN A KALECKIAN MODEL

We discuss the effects of rising shareholder power on distribution and capital accumulation in a Kaleckian model. In the short run, increasing shareholder power may have either positive (‘finance‐led’), negative (‘normal’) or ‘intermediate’ (‘profits without investment’) effects on capacity utilization, profits and capital accumulation. In the medium run, the positive (‘finance‐led’) effects may be maintained in a stable regime under very special conditions, whereas the negative (‘normal’) and the ‘intermediate’ (‘profits without investment’) effects turn into disequilibrium processes with falling rates of capital accumulation and rising outside finance–capital ratios. Therefore, this process gives rise to a ‘paradox of outside finance’.     

INTEREST RATE,DEBT, DISTRIBUTION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN A POST‐KALECKIAN MODEL

In the present paper we extend Lavoie's (Metroeconomica, 1995, vol. 46, pp. 146–177) ‘Minsky–Steindl’ model, building our analysis on a Kaleckian distribution and growth model which has already taken into account distribution effects of interest rate variations on the short‐run equilibrium. Into this model the effects of debt and debt services are explicitly introduced and the effects of interest rate variations on the short‐ and the long‐run equilibrium are derived. It is shown that the effects of interest rate variations on the endogenously determined equilibrium values of the model not only depend on the parameter values in the saving and investment functions but also on the interest elasticity of distribution and on initial conditions with respect to the interest rate and the debt–capital ratio.     

Moral Hazard,Agency Cost,and Firm Growth

We study how the agency cost implied by the moral hazard problem in a firm dynamics model affects the life cycle growth pattern of firms. In the early stage of a firm's growth, the agency cost restricts the firm's capital input and diminishes over time, so that the firm's growth is driven by efficiency improvements and an exogenous progress in productivity. In the long run, when the firm loses its potential to improve efficiency, growth is driven only by the progress in productivity. As a result of this growth mechanism, consistent with the data, the growth rate and its volatility, as well as Tobin's Q, decrease with age and size. Moreover, the cross‐sectional distributions of firm size and managerial compensation obey a power law, as they do in the data. In addition, the model provides novel implications for how the characteristics of the production technology and the preferences of the economic agents affect the growth pattern of firms, and these implications are potentially testable.     

Endogenous Cycles and Chaos in a Capitalist Economy: A Circuit of Capital Model

This paper introduces a firm‐level simulation model of the circuit of capital with financially extended Harrodian investment behavior. The model demonstrates that capitalist economies with heterogeneous firms can endogenously generate chaotic cycles. Stability and bifurcation analyses show that the (Harrodian) instability of the system is caused by the firm's ‘aggressiveness’ regarding the size of the ‘rent’ between investiments in the financial and the goods markets. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of firms results in a chaotic pattern of capital accumulation. Finally, a set of steady states around which the system fluctuates chaotically is found by solving the balanced growth problem.     

Wealth Distribution,Elasticity of Substitution and Piketty: An ‘Anti‐Dual’ Pasinetti Economy

This paper studies the dynamics of wealth distribution between workers and capitalists in a neoclassical growth model with differential saving rates. It shows that if capitalists are thriftier than workers and the factors elasticity of substitution is high enough to ensure endogenous growth, capitalists’ share of total wealth asymptotically tends to one. It is also proved that a tax on capital income shifts the long run distribution of wealth in workers’ favor, and that the capitalists’ share of total wealth is a decreasing function of the tax rate. The results of the paper are compared to Piketty's ‘fundamental laws’ of capitalism.     

The economics of the super‐multiplier: A comprehensive treatment with labor markets

This paper links the super‐multiplier to Keynesian macroeconomics, showing it to be the most Keynesian of growth perspectives. Next, the paper shows that the super‐multiplier is a micro‐economically coherent theory of investment and capital accumulation. Firms’ decisions regarding capital accumulation coordinate demand and supply growth in goods markets. The paper then explores the implications of incorporating the super‐multiplier in the neo‐Kaleckian and Cambridge growth models. Lastly, it shows how labor markets and unemployment can be added into super‐multiplier models to provide a comprehensive growth model that addresses Solow's (1956, Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94) labor market knife‐edge problem. Incorporating labor markets does not change the fundamental super‐multiplier result that growth is determined by the growth of autonomous demand.     

SCALE‐INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGICAL‐KNOWLEDGE BIAS,HUMAN‐CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND GENDER INEQUALITY

We present a dynamic, non‐scale general‐equilibrium model with female and male human capital where Schumpeterian R&D and human‐capital accumulation are the engines of growth and gender wage inequality. Gender wage inequality is encouraged by changes in relative supply and relative demand of both human‐capital types. Relative supply restricts the levels of employed human capital. Relative demand is affected by the technological‐knowledge bias, which is driven by the price channel and is affected by human‐capital accumulation. In particular, the female‐premium per unit of human capital and per worker increases when the observed discrimination against women decreases or is removed.     

内生经济增长理论与财政政策的一般性研究

内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容。从长期经济增长所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面。如果经济增长率是由内生因素决定的,那么财政政策对经济增长的影响将再次成为人们关注的焦点。在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本和技术进步等方面投资的转换机制。     

Are Human and Social Capital Linked? Evidence from India

This paper develops a two‐period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of endogenous growth in which a two‐way relationship between social capital and human capital is studied. In order to illustrate the impact of public policies, the model is calibrated using the data for a low‐income country, India and a sensitivity analysis is reported under different parameter values. Based on the numerical analysis, this paper focuses on possible trade‐offs in the allocation of government spending between two productive components, that is, social capital‐related activities and education. The results of this paper show that an increase in the share of public spending on social capital‐related activities through a cut in spending on education or vice versa entails trade‐offs. However, the trade‐off fades away and the net impact on long‐run growth turns out to be positive for different parameter values in the case where a higher share of spending on education is financed by a cut in spending on social capital‐related activities but a policy in improving social capital accumulation at the expense of education is always detrimental to long‐run growth.     

RISK‐AVERSION,OPTIMAL LEVERAGE AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATION

We develop a partial equilibrium dynamic model in which firms are risk‐averse. We analyse the determinants of the investment–uncertainty relationship by means of numerical techniques. When firms can borrow ‘outside’ resources at the riskless rate, an increase in price volatility depresses investment for realistic parameter values. In our model, portfolio considerations play an important role. When the marginal revenue of capital becomes more uncertain, the risk‐averse firm's owners reduce their ‘short position’ in the risk‐free asset, thus diminishing the firm's debt level. The contraction in leverage reduces the expected returns on investment because the expected marginal revenue product is higher than the user cost of capital. In turn, the reduction in expected yields tends to depress investment.     

Profitability and Investment: Evidence from India's Organized Manufacturing Sector

Using a state‐industry panel data set of 55 industries for 19 major Indian states over the period 1983–84 to 2007–08, we analyze the contemporaneous and long run impacts of the rate of profit and its components—profit share, capacity utilization rate and capacity‐capital ratio—on investment using linear dynamic panel data models. Our results show that: (a) the rate of profit has both short and long run positive impacts on investment; (b) the profit share and capacity‐capital ratio have mainly long run positive impacts, but the capacity utilization rate has a more complex pattern of impact on investment.     

Estimating the speeds of long-run technological catch-up and growth of total factor productivity for countries

This paper constructs a dynamic production frontier function under the framework of a forward-looking rational expectations model, taking the effect of quasi-fixed inputs into account. The sample comprises balanced panel data of 36 countries over the period from 1990 to 2009. Evidence is found that all of the four country groups show the technological catch-up phenomenon in the long run and experience total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Their TFP growth is primarily driven by long-run technical efficiency improvement, followed by technological progress. The Non-G7 and Non-NICs groups are the top two groups in terms of speeds of long-run technological catch-up and rates of TFP growth.     

Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding

The sizeable hoarding of international reserves by several East Asian countries has been frequently attributed to a modern version of monetary mercantilism – hoarding international reserves in order to improve competitiveness. From a long‐run perspective, manufacturing exporters in East Asia adopted ‘financial’ mercantilism – subsidising the cost of capital – during decades of high growth. They switched to hoarding large international reserves when growth faltered, making it harder to disentangle the monetary mercantilism from the precautionary response to the heritage of past financial mercantilism. Monetary mercantilism also lowers the cost of hoarding, but may be associated with negative externalities leading to competitive hoarding. From this viewpoint, this paper makes three observations on the East Asian reserve accumulation. First, the recent large hoarding of reserves in Japan and Korea occurred in the aftermath of the growth strategy that combined export promotion and credit subsidisation (financial mercantilism). Second, whether the ultimate motive is mercantilist or precautionary, the ongoing reserve hoarding in Asia contains an element of competitive hoarding, which is likely to have negative externalities among countries involved. Finally, China's hoarding of reserves partly reflects the precaution against the financial fragility that is likely to follow the slowing of economic growth.     

DEMAND POLICIES FOR LONG‐RUN GROWTH: BEING KEYNESIAN BOTH IN THE SHORT AND IN THE LONG RUN?

The idea of demand‐led growth is defended by neo‐Kaleckians and neo‐Keynesians using very specific assumptions. In their models the paradox of costs is always valid in the long run. The central message of this paper is that these specific and strong assumptions are not needed to defend the Kaleckian perspective of a demand‐driven long‐run growth. What is needed is simply a less demanding theory of flexible mark‐ups in an open economy. The formal model developed in this paper shows that long‐run growth may be demand driven even when the paradox of costs does not hold in the long run.     

THE UNEQUALIZING EFFECTS OF ICT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

We analyse the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) on levels and growth of per capita GDP in two different ways: (1) by treating ICT as a specific type of physical capital and as a variable that helps to correct for quality existing physical capital measures, and (2) by considering that telephone lines, personal computers and internet hosts are ‘bottleneck‐reducing’ factors that increase the productivity of labour by making easier the diffusion and processing of (non‐rivalrous and almost non‐excludable) knowledge. We compare the relative significance of the two hypotheses in level and growth estimates and find that, when separately taken, both of them improve upon the classical Mankiw et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107 (1992), pp. 407–437)/Islam (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110 (1995), pp. 1127–1169) framework. These findings show that our approach captures dimensions of time‐varying country‐specific technological progress that previous approaches in the literature did not take into account.     

An Analytical Foundation of the Classical View of Long‐Period Prices with Differential Profit Rates

The uniformity of the profit rates has been justified by the modern literature on long‐period positions on the ground of the working of free capital mobility across sectors. However, classical economists allow for profit rates differentials also in case of absence of barriers to entry, because of specific factors affecting the investment behavior of producers in industries. We develop a linear multisectoral model in which differential profit rates are determined by such ‘idiosyncratic’ factors. We provide conditions ensuring the uniformity of the profit rates in the long‐run.     

Optimal Utilization of Capital and a Financial Sector in a Classical Gravitation Process

In a production price framework, a two‐sectoral gravitation process with cross‐over adjustments of prices and quantities is advanced. To overcome an inconsistency in the treatment of fixed capital in disequilibrium, the socio‐technological input coefficients are assumed to vary with the sectoral output–capital ratio, such that for each relative price there exists an optimal degree of capital utilization which maximizes the sectoral rate of profit. Production prices prevail if these maximizing rates of profit are equalized. In addition, a financial sector determining the rate of interest is incorporated into the model. The mathematical analysis establishes a broad scope for local stability of the long‐run equilibrium position once a condition applies that ensures stability of the output adjustments in the short period.