Lower‐boundary violations and market efficiency: Evidence from the German DAX‐index options market

The informational efficiency of the market for options on the German stock index DAX is examined using intraday transactions data. Problems of previous studies on options‐market efficiency, arising from dividend estimation and the early‐exercise effect, are avoided, because the DAX is a performance index and DAX options are European options. Ex‐post and ex‐ante tests are carried out to simulate trading strategies that exploit irrational lower‐boundary violations of observed option prices. Because the lower‐boundary conditions are solely based on arbitrage considerations, the test results do not depend on the assumption that investors use a particular option‐pricing model. The investigation shows that ex‐post profits are, in general, dramatically reduced when the execution of arbitrage strategies is delayed and/or transaction costs are accounted for. However, arbitrage restrictions, which rely on short selling of the component stocks of the index, tend to be violated more often and with higher persistence. An analysis of consecutive subsamples suggests that, over time, traders have been subjected to a learning process when pricing this relatively new instrument. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 405–424, 2000     

Examination of long‐term bond iShare option selling strategies

This article examines volatility trades in Lehman Brothers 20+ Year US Treasury Index iShare (TLT) options from July 2003 through May 2007. Unconditionally selling front contract strangles and straddles and holding for one month is highly profitable after transactions costs. Short‐term option selling strategies are enhanced when implied volatility is high relative to time series volatility forecasts. Risk management strategies such as stop loss orders detract from profitability, while take profit orders have only modest favorable effects on profitability. Overall, the results demonstrate that TLT option selling strategies offered attractive risk‐return tradeoffs over the sample period. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:465–489, 2010     

Disentangling the effect of services on B2B firm value: Trade-offs of sales,profits, and earnings volatility

In the face of declining business and growing pressures from low-cost competitors, many business-to-business (B2B) manufacturers have moved from their previously successful product-centric strategies to more service-oriented business models. Yet despite their substantial investments in services, firms fail to understand the performance ramifications of these offerings. With a longitudinal data set (2001–2016) of 227 B2B manufacturers listed in the S&P 1500 index, this study disentangles the simultaneous effects of financial-based mechanisms that link the service ratio (i.e., share of a firm's revenue generated from selling services) to firm value. The findings reveal significant trade-offs across these mechanisms. Although the service ratio monotonously boosts sales growth, it has U-shaped curvilinear relationships with profitability and earnings volatility. These effects also depend on industry- and firm-level factors. Industry maturity positively moderates the effects of the service ratio on sales growth and profitability. However, business scope has an adverse effect on the service ratio–profitability relationship. Finally, industry turbulence negatively moderates the effect of services on earnings volatility.     

The success of stock selection strategies in emerging markets: Is it risk or behavioral bias?

We examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies based on value, momentum and earnings revisions indicators. The findings for value and momentum strategies are consistent with the evidence from developed markets supporting behavioral explanations. In addition, for value stocks, the most important behavioral bias appears to be related to underestimation of long-term growth prospects, as indicated by above average earnings revisions for longer post-formation horizons and by quite rapidly improving earnings growth expectations. Furthermore, we find that overreaction effects play a limited role for the earnings revisions strategy, as there is no clear return reversal until five years after portfolio formation, setting this strategy apart from momentum strategies.     

THE EFFECT OF TRADING FUTURES ON SHORT SALE CONSTRAINTS

It is commonly believed that the trading of futures on a commodity enables the market to overcome short selling constraints on the spot commodity itself. This belief is embedded in the notion that trading strategies involving futures contracts enable traders to replicate the payoffs as if they were short the spot commodity. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this common belief in a general arbitrage‐free semimartingale financial model with trading in futures and a short selling prohibition on the spot commodity. We show via various examples that, in general, this common belief is incorrect. Furthermore, we provide a set of sufficient conditions, albeit very restrictive, under which the common belief is true.     

AN examination of short QQQ option trades

This study shows that unconditional QQQ option selling strategies from January 2001 through November 2004 are generally significantly profitable after transactions costs. However, when straddle and strangle sales are combined with purchases of out of the money puts, few of the strategies are significantly profitable. Profits improve when the QQQ Volatility Index is high relative to time series volatility forecasts, but only when actual volatility is forecast to be moderate. Active delta‐hedging reduces profitability, whereas stop loss/take profit orders enhance profitability. Overall, QQQ short volatility trades appear to be less compelling than what others have found with S&P options. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:739–770, 2007     

The economic significance of conditional skewness in index option markets

This study examines whether conditional skewness forecasts of the underlying asset returns can be used to trade profitably in the index options market. The results indicate that a more general skewness‐based option‐pricing model can generate better trading performance for strip and strap trades. The results show that conditional skewness model forecasts, when combined with forward‐looking option implied volatilities, can significantly improve the performance of skewness‐based trades but trading costs considerably weaken the profitability of index option strategies. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:378–406, 2010     

The Chinese warrant bubble: A fundamental analysis

We investigate the information content in Chinese warrant prices based on an option pricing framework that incorporates short‐selling and margin‐trading constraints in the underlying stock market. We show that Chinese warrant prices can be explained under this pricing framework. On the basis of this new model, we develop a price deviation measure to quantify stock market investors' unobserved demand for short selling or margin trading due to market constraints. We find that warrant‐price deviations are driven by underlying stock valuation to a great extent. Chinese warrant prices, save for the time around expiration dates, are better characterized as derivatives than as pure bubbles.     

Did Firms Manage Earnings more Aggressively during the Financial Crisis?

We investigate the extent of earnings management during the financial crisis of 2008 (The Great Recession). Based on a large sample of 14,000 observations across 15 years, our results show that firms managed earnings less aggressively during the crisis. We also show a severe decline in firm value and profitability during the crisis. Our results are consistent with the notion that, during the crisis, firm performance was so far below the target that no amount of earnings management would have been sufficient to reverse the poor earnings picture. As a result, managers were less motivated to manage earnings. Furthermore, the crisis serves as a convenient excuse for poor performance, lessening the motivation and necessity for managers to manage earnings. Additional analysis including fixed‐effects regressions, propensity score matching, and GMM dynamic panel data estimation shows that our results are robust and are not driven by unobserved heterogeneity. Further analysis documents similar findings for the Dot‐com crisis in 2001 and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997–1998.     

Online marketing: When to offer a refund for advanced sales

Advance selling is a marketing strategy commonly used by online retailers to increase sales by exploiting consumer valuation uncertainty. Recently, some online retailers have started to allow refunds on products sold in advance. On the one hand this reduces the net advance sales, but on the other hand it allows a higher advance sales price. This research is the first to explore the overall effect of allowing a refund on profits from advance sales, identifying conditions where advance selling with or without refunds (or no advance selling at all) is best. We analytically compare the profits of three advance selling strategies: none, without refund, and with refund. We show that selling in advance and allowing a refund is optimal for products with a relatively small profit margin and small strategic market size, and that the added profit can be considerable. Our results guide managers in selecting the right advance selling strategy. To facilitate this, we graphically display, based on the two dimensions of regular profit margin and strategic market size, under what conditions the different strategies are optimal.     

Buy,Lie, or Die: An Investigation of Chinese ST Firms’ Voluntary Interim Audit Motive and Auditor Independence

In the Chinese stock market, special treatment (ST) firms are the firms listed as facing imminent danger of delisting, unless they return to profitability after reporting two consecutive annual losses. Some ST firms voluntarily pay substantial fees to their external auditors to conduct interim audits, which are not required by regulations. In this study, we investigate and find that ST firms that pay for voluntary interim audits report greater discretionary accrued earnings, higher non-operating earnings, and higher returns on assets in ensuing annual reports. As a result, these firms are more likely to return to profitability and reduce their delisting risk. Our results, which contribute to the current debate on auditor independence, appear to be consistent with the possibility that ST firms “buy” external auditors’ cooperation to manipulate earnings when faced with the threat of delisting.     

Pricing dynamics of index options and index futures in Hong Kong before and during the Asian financial crisis

This article studies the impact of the Asian financial crisis on index options and index futures markets in Hong Kong. We employed a time‐stamped transaction data set of the Hang Seng Index options and futures contracts that were traded on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange. The results show that during the crisis period, the arbitrage profits, and the standard deviations of these profits increased in both ex‐post and ex‐ante analyses. In a market turbulent time, market volatility brings a higher arbitrage profit level. However, despite the increased market volatility, the profitability of the arbitrage trades declined substantially with longer execution time lags in the ex‐ante analysis. This suggests that the HSI futures and options markets are mature and resilient. A multiple regression analysis on the ex‐post arbitrage profit also suggests that there were structural changes during the Asian financial crisis and the Hong Kong government intervention periods. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 145–166, 2000     

The impact of off‐market trading on liquidity: Evidence from the Australian options market

This study investigates the impact of reducing the contract size threshold for off‐market trading on transaction costs in an options market. This study provides evidence that market makers compete more aggressively for small‐to‐medium trades and quote mid‐size depths more often after the regime change. Results also indicate that small‐to‐medium trades incur lower transaction costs; however, large trades that are executed on the central limit order book do not benefit from the structural transition. Given recent frictions imposed by regulators on equity markets, these results suggest that options markets provide an effective means for investors to replicate short‐selling in underlying securities. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:361–377, 2010     

Selling digital music: business models for public goods

This paper considers the market for digital music. We claim that the combination of the MP3 format and peer-to-peer networks has made music non-excludable and this feature is essential for the understanding of the economics of the music market. We study optimal business models for selling non-excludable goods and show that despite promising theoretical results, adding just a slight uncertainty about the number of customers has significant negative implications for profitability. Indeed, as the average number of customers tends to infinity the average payment per customer converges to zero. Therefore, the music industry should concentrate on alternative ways of creating profit such as selling access to listeners, concerts, merchandise, ringtones etc.     

The Role of Executive Stock Options in On‐Market Share Buybacks*

The increasing use of on‐market buyback programs in Australia may not be fully explained by the typical motivations of information signaling and free cash flows offered by previous researchers. For some firms at least, management may believe the shares are overvalued. It is in this context that we examine whether managers of firms with high levels of executive stock options have an incentive to initiate buyback programs. It has been argued that managers may be motivated to undertake on‐market buyback programs in order to neutralize the dilution of earnings per share caused by their stock options, rather than for signaling purposes. Our findings are consistent with this argument because we find that the higher the proportion of executive stock options outstanding the more likely it is for firms to undertake larger on‐market buyback programs. Overall our results indicate that the existence of executive stock options influences managers' decision to implement on‐market buyback programs but that it is not the only factor that managers take into consideration.     

OPTIMAL STOCK SELLING/BUYING STRATEGY WITH REFERENCE TO THE ULTIMATE AVERAGE

We are concerned with the optimal decision to sell or buy a stock in a given period with reference to the ultimate average of the stock price. More precisely, we aim to determine an optimal selling (buying) time to maximize (minimize) the expectation of the ratio of the selling (buying) price to the ultimate average price over the period. This is an optimal stopping time problem which can be formulated as a variational inequality problem. The problem gives rise to a free boundary that corresponds to the optimal selling (buying) strategy. We provide a partial differential equation approach to characterize the free boundary (or equivalently, the optimal selling (buying) region). It turns out that the optimal selling strategy is bang‐bang, which is the same as that obtained by Shiryaev, Xu, and Zhou taking the ultimate maximum of the stock price as benchmark, whereas the optimal buying strategy can be a feedback one subject to the type of averaging and parameter values. Moreover, by a thorough characterization of free boundary, we reveal that the bang‐bang optimal selling strategy heavily depends on the assumption that no time‐vesting restrictions are imposed. If a time‐vested stock is considered, then the optimal selling strategy can also be a feedback one. In terms of a similar analysis developed by the present paper, the same phenomenon can be proved when taking the ultimate maximum as benchmark.     

The Transaction Cost Economics of Market‐based Exchange: The Impact of Reputation and External Verification Agencies

In this analysis, we empirically investigate market‐based transaction costs. We measure market‐based transaction costs indirectly by examining variations in market prices when selling Morgan Silver Dollars on eBay. We find that the reputation of both the seller and the coin‐rating agency employed significantly influences the price premium obtained. Moreover, we find that the use of a coin‐rating agency with a poor reputation proved more damaging than the use of no coin‐rating agency. Thus, we find support for the suggestion that the reputation of sellers and third‐party verification agencies have a significant influence on perceived market‐based transaction costs.     

Strategic behavior of insiders in initial underpricing and long-run underperformance

We study strategic behavior of insiders in ChiNext IPOs. Since traditional initial underpricing is not appropriate due to the jawbone P/E ratio approach and maximum initial return cap we propose two alternative measures. We identify a significantly positive relationship between insiders' shareholdings and initial underpricing. With no discretion on IPO offer price, the insiders implement earnings management to maintain higher stock prices induced by regulatory changes and high market demand and to facilitate selling their unlocked shares after lockup expiration. We confirm a negative impact from insiders' share sales on long-term performance but don't observe a dramatic underperformance as documented.     

Probabilistic selling vs. markdown selling: Price discrimination and management of demand uncertainty in retailing

Markdown selling (i.e., price reductions over the course of the selling season) is a strategy to implement price discrimination and to manage market uncertainty that has been widely adopted by retailers. This paper explores the potential advantage of introducing an additional tool to the arsenal of retailers, probabilistic selling (i.e., offering consumers a choice to buy a product that can turn out to be any item from a predetermined set of distinct items). We show that both probabilistic and markdown selling strategies serve as price discrimination tools by offering buyers an option to purchase a “damaged” good (an uncertain product under the former and delayed consumption of a product under the latter). However, the two strategies segment markets based on different types of buyer heterogeneity: buyer preference strength under probabilistic selling and buyer patience under markdown selling. Our analytical model reveals that, compared with markdown selling, probabilistic selling can (1) improve margin management by increasing revenue from full-price sales and reducing the magnitude of discounts; and (2) improve inventory utilization by reducing stockouts and the amount of excess inventory. We identify the conditions required for probabilistic selling to be more profitable than markdown selling.     

卖空机制、盈余管理与公司投资效率

本文针对我国证券市场引入融资融券交易制度这一特殊的自然实验,以2006~2015年我国A股上市公司为样本,通过建立双重差分模型研究放松卖空管制对上市公司非效率投资的治理效应及其影响机制.结果发现:卖空机制通过抑制公司的盈余管理提高了公司的投资效率;相对于治理质量较高的公司,卖空机制对治理质量较低公司投资效率的影响更为显著.本文研究对进一步深化我国证券交易市场改革,提高公司投资效率,实现金融资源的优化配置具有借鉴意义.