A model of residential change and neighborhood tipping

This paper applies the theory of probabilistic consumer demand to an analysis of residential change at the urban neighborhood scale. By developing the profit maximizing pricing behavior of housing suppliers, it is shown that neighborhood transitions from high income to low income and from white to black can be explained on purely economic grounds without involving prejudicial preferences. The analytical model explains two types of transition. In the first, a neighborhood's social mix changes gradually in response to gradual exogenous changes. In the second, a neighborhood “tips” suddenly in response to similar exogenous changes. The two transitions can occur depending on the characteristics of the demand functions for the two competing groups.     

Residential change and economic choice behavior

Theory of economic choice behavior is applied to construct a dynamic model of residential change at the neighborhood scale. The utility of a neighborhood depends on the investor's decisions, and two different specifications are considered. In the first, these decisions result from a strategy fixed a priori. The model can then be easily studied. The second is concerned with the simplified case of a single neighborhood and supposes that the housing price and quality are dependent on maintenance expenditures viewed as a function of the number of individuals living in the neighborhood. It is then shown how different processes of residential change can be generated by purely economic factors.     

Intertemporal coordination in two-period markets

This paper studies the stability of the intertemporal coordination dynamics when the common knowledge of individual expectations of future prices is perturbed in a neighborhood of a perfect foresight equilibrium. The main forces that affect stability are: (i) the effect of a change in asset demand on second period spot market prices, and (ii) the effect on asset demand of a small change in second period prices. In an intertemporal market game whose interior Markov perfect equilibria correspond to perfect foresight equilibria, it is shown that though M-rationalizability implies the stability of the intertemporal dynamics, the converse is not always true.     

组织变革、动态能力与创新绩效——基于多案例的研究

本文旨在探讨组织变革、动态能力以及创新绩效之间的影响关系。以新产品开发为视角提出基于NPD的三维动态能力,并利用探索性案例研究方法,以制造业三家具有代表性的企业为分析样本,证实了组织变革对需求识别能力、概念开发能力和产品设计能力与创新绩效之间的关系起到了部分中介影响作用。     

Intertemporal coordination in two-period markets

This paper studies the stability of the intertemporal coordination dynamics when the common knowledge of individual expectations of future prices is perturbed in a neighborhood of a perfect foresight equilibrium. The main forces that affect stability are: (i) the effect of a change in asset demand on second period spot market prices, and (ii) the effect on asset demand of a small change in second period prices. In an intertemporal market game whose interior Markov perfect equilibria correspond to perfect foresight equilibria, it is shown that though M-rationalizability implies the stability of the intertemporal dynamics, the converse is not always true.     

Capitalization of local fiscal differentials: Inferences from a disequilibrium market model

This study analyzes tax capitalization within the framework of a disequilibrium market model. In particular, this study examines whether local fiscal differentials influence the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over time. Local fiscal differentials existing in 1970 are found to have no influence on the rate of change in neighborhood house prices over the period 1970–1972; therefore, the study concludes that, other things being equal, these local fiscal differentials have been completely capitalized in price levels.     

Evolution in a General Equilibrium framework

In this paper, we consider a general equilibrium model in which the economies are characterized by the distribution of firms on a set of branches of production; we will show that based on the decisions of the managers of the firms, it is possible to build a dynamic system whose solutions reproduce the possible trajectories of the economy. Once the initial state of an economy is known, that is, the initial distribution of firms, we will have a unique solution for this dynamic system, which will coincide with the evolution of the economy, that is, the evolution of prices and equilibrium allocations.The investment decisions of the administrators of the companies will change the distribution over the set of existing productive branches, which in turn will produce changes in the wealth of consumers who are also shareholders of the companies and then as a consequence, their demand will change, and therefore the equilibrium allocations and prices will too.In most cases, these decisions lead to an improvement in the efficiency of the productive side of the economy and an increase in the welfare of the economy as a whole, but, as we will show, under some particular circumstances, even when it comes to rational decisions from the point of view of administrators, this can lead to undesirable repercussions on the welfare of consumers. Besides, in a neighborhood of a critical economy, even when these decisions may involve small changes in the distribution of companies, they can cause abrupt and unexpected changes in the behavior of the economy, or in other words, they can cause an economic crisis. These are characterized by large changes in the prices, in the demand, and in the supply of goods. In contrast, in a sufficiently small neighborhood of a regular economy, small changes in the distribution of firms produced by the investment decisions of managers do not lead to large changes in the subsequent behavior of the economy. We will exemplify these statements with several numerical examples.     

Trade,technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata

In this paper we report evidence on the relationship between trade openness, technology adoption and the relative demand for skilled labour in the Turkish manufacturing sector, using firm-level data over the period 1980–2001. In a dynamic panel data setting, using a unique database comprising data from 17,462 firms, we estimate an augmented cost share equation whereby the wage bill share of skilled workers in a given firm is related to international exposure and technology adoption.It emerges that R&D expenditures are positive and significantly related to skill upgrading. This result supports the skill-biased technological change argument in the case of a middle-income country such as Turkey.Moreover, the firm-level analysis reveals a positive impact of technological transfer from abroad, foreign ownership and exporting status on the demand for skills, highlighting the role of increasing international openness in fostering skill upgrading within firms.Our microdata also allow us to investigate the direct impact of import flows in shaping the relative demand for skills. The results show that those firms belonging to the sectors experiencing rapid increase in the share of inputs imported from industrialised countries also experience a higher increase in the labour cost share of skilled workers. This finding provides further support for the hypothesis that imports from industrialised countries imply a transfer of new technologies, in turn leading to a higher demand for skilled labour (the so-called skill-enhancing trade hypothesis).     

Identification in a model of sorting with social externalities and the causes of urban segregation

This paper discusses nonparametric identification in a model of sorting in which location choices depend on the location choices of other agents as well as prices and exogenous location characteristics. In this model, demand slopes and hence preferences are not identifiable without further restrictions because of the absence of independent variation of endogenous composition and exogenous location characteristics. Several solutions of this problem are presented and applied to data on neighborhoods in US cities. These solutions use exclusion restrictions, based on either subgroup demand shifters, the spatial structure of externalities, or the dynamics of prices and composition in response to an amenity shock. The empirical results consistently suggest the presence of strong social externalities, that is a dependence of location choices on neighborhood composition.     

Becoming a Slum: From Municipal Colony to Illegal Settlement in Liberalization‐Era Mumbai

This article argues that the transformation of a Mumbai neighborhood from municipal housing colony into illegal slum has been facilitated by the politically mediated deterioration and criminalization of its water infrastructure in the context of liberalization‐era policy shifts. These policy shifts hinge upon a conceptual binary that posits the unplanned, illegal and informal ‘slum’ as the self‐evident conceptual counterpoint to a planned, formal, ‘world‐class’ city. The story of Shivajinagar‐Bainganwadi problematizes this assumption by evidencing the deeply political and highly unstable nature of this binary — and thus insists upon an account of the shifting political and economic stakes imbued in these categories. The case of Shivajinagar‐Bainganwadi reveals that the neighborhood's emergence as an illegal slum has been mediated by the liberalization‐era politics that have come to infuse the neighborhood's water pipes — dynamics that have produced the illegality/informality of the neighborhood as a discursive effect.     

Neighborhood amenities: An economic analysis

A spatial model of household and firm demand and supply of market goods is developed. Housing and neighborhood amenity markets are explicitly considered in deriving market equilibrium. The equilibrium relationships are empirically investigated, yielding important insights into the functioning of the urban economy. Attention is focused on externalities involved in neighborhood markets and the simultaneous determination of housing and amenity market equilibrium. The effect of neighborhood amenities on household equilibrium is of a major magnitude and effects of “externality” variables on both housing and amenity equilibrium are substantiated. The degree of neighborhood homogeneity and the extent of government programs aimed at neighborhood development are found to have significant impacts on housing and amenity markets.     

Stochastic Technical Change and Procyclical TFP The Case of Italian Agriculture

The paper questionsthe use of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures as a proxyfor the technological level in Italian agriculture. TFP growthreveals a cyclical behaviour and a short-run component due toshocks on both the demand and supply sides. In order to identifyreal long-run technological change, a Kalman filter procedureis applied to a stochastic process depicting the generation oftechnical change induced by R&D and Extension expenditure.The empirical evidence reveals that short-term shocks greatlyaffect the traditional measure of productivity. A better indicatorof technological progress can be obtained by estimating the long-runcomponent of productivity, which seems to be significantly inducedby R&D-Extension public expenditure.     

A censored system of demand analysis to unpacked and prepackaged milk consumption in Turkey

The market driven and globally integrated economy since 1980 in Turkey has boosted milk demand like any other foods. We estimate the impacts of factors affecting households unpacked and prepackaged fluid milk demand in Turkey using a bivariate censored system of demand model. The correlation coefficient from bivariate censored model between these two products indicates that unobservable factors influencing the unpacked fluid milk would likely and significantly lower the consumption of the packed fluid milk for a household. The model also reveals that non-economic demographic factors play crucial roles in determining the quantity demanded of both products, especially the unpacked fluid milk. Both products are substitute one for another and both products are price elastic, suggesting that, for example, more than a change observed in the unpacked milk price would occur in the demand for the unpacked fluid milk with an increase or decrease in the unpacked fluid milk commodity prices. Interestingly, the unpacked fluid milk is an inferior good, while the prepackaged fluid milk is an normal good, indicating that the demand for the packed fluid milk increases with the increased in household income. Milk industries can generate additional revenues by decreasing both product prices.     

Household migration: theoretical and empirical results

A consumption theory of migration is developed which supplements the traditional job search models. Migration, seen as an equilibrating reaction to an initially non-optimal location, is analyzed using standard demand theory. When one groups goods into those that are traded between areas and those that are not (weather, racial discrimination, crime rates, etc.) it is clear that only changing demands for the non-traded goods will result in changing optimal locations (assuming supplies are fixed). Illustrating, an increase in family income might lead to an increased demand for the non-traded good “personal safety.” This might result, for example, in the substitution (through migration) of a lower crime suburban neighborhood for a higher crime central city neighborhood.An empirically testable implication of the model is that the probability of migration should be positively related to changes in the absolute value of those exogenous variables which lead to altered demands for non-traded goods. This and other hypotheses were examined using cross-sectional data in a nonlinear maximum likelihood (probit) regression analysis. The results strongly support the model and its implications.     

Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days

Demand forecasting is an important task for retailers as it is required for various operational decisions. One key challenge is to forecast demand on special days that are subject to vastly different demand patterns than on regular days. We present the case of a bakery chain with an emphasis on special calendar days, for which we address the problem of forecasting the daily demand for different product categories at the store level. Such forecasts are an input for production and ordering decisions. We treat the forecasting problem as a supervised machine learning task and provide an evaluation of different methods, including artificial neural networks and gradient-boosted decision trees. In particular, we outline and discuss the possibility of formulating a classification instead of a regression problem. An empirical comparison with established approaches reveals the superiority of machine learning methods, while classification-based approaches outperform regression-based approaches. We also found that machine learning methods not only provide more accurate forecasts but are also more suitable for applications in a large-scale demand forecasting scenario that often occurs in the retail industry.     

Interne leveringen in de inzet-afzetanalyse

Summary
By applying this relation all results in the two definition systems can be translated into each other. In this note we will analyze some relationships between increments in gross and net production.
It turns out that in case the external delivery structure changes {the non-diagonal coefficients of A), relative increments in gross and net production are identical.
A further result is that neither relative nor absolute increments in gross and net production are identical in case of changes in the internal delivery structure {the diagonal coefficients of A).
The third result is that relative increments in gross and net production are identical in case of a change in final demand.
Input-output analysis can be set up in gross or net terms. In the first case the internal deliveries of a sector are included in the table, in the other case they are neglected. These two different approaches give rise to two different leontief matrices: A and D.
Stone determined a relation between the two matrix multipliers (I-A)^-1 and (I-D)^-1     

Causality and the independence phenomenon: The case of the demand for money

We examine the demand for money using causality results with data from two alternative policy regimes. For Spanish series of money and prices we obtain the same result of independence that Feige and others found with U.S. data. The result of the test for the German hyperinflation period reveals bidirectional causality. It is shown that the somehow striking results of widespread independence among economic time series do not disprove but rather confirm the existence of a true underlying causal relationship. Causality results, and independence in particular, give us testable restriction for the structural form. In the case of models for expectations in the rate of inflation, these restrictions allow us to revalidate the stability of the demand for money as postulated by the Quantity Theory.     

Contested Development: Homeless Property,Police Reform,and Resistance in Skid Row,LA

Since the late 1990s, Downtown Los Angeles’ Skid Row has undergone private and state‐sanctioned policing practices within the fifty‐block neighborhood. These policing practices are fueled by increased commercial and real‐estate development to dispossess and contain the mostly Black homeless and housed residents. Grassroots organizations and residents have responded to gentrification‐induced policing by claiming a homeless right to property, transforming neighborhood politics. This article examines these neighborhood politics as a process of contested development. Contested development reveals the push‐and‐pull contradictions that occur when spatial difference is challenged and reproduced. Through the sphere of urban property, the contested development of property in Skid Row restores or resists the generation of spatial difference. In so doing, the claims of homeless residents and grassroots organizations to a right to property engender transformative police reforms while at the same time igniting revanchist policing methods.     

Partial Structural Break Identification

We propose an extension of the existing information criterion‐based structural break identification approaches. The extended approach helps identify both pure structural change (break) and partial structural change (break). A pure structural change refers to the case when breaks occur simultaneously in all parameters of regression equation, whereas a partial structural change happens when breaks occur in some parameters only. Our approach consistently outperforms other well‐known approaches. We also extend the simulation studies of Bai and Perron ( 2006 and Hall, Osborn and Sakkas ( 2013 ) by including more general cases. This provides more comprehensive results and reveals the cases where the existing identification approaches lose power, which should be kept in mind when applying them.     

The demand for gasoline: a two stage approach

The demand for gasoline has typically been estimated using a reduced-form equation model. The simplicity of the approach is attractive, but has proven to be costly in terms of the insights lost as to the nature of the processes governing the interdependence between fuel efficiency and the overall demand for gasoline. On the other hand, disaggregating the overall demand for gasoline into all of its components produces an enormous amount of detail and many insights, but increases commensurately the complexity of the system and reduces its usefulness in forecasting.A two stage simple demand equation is used which first involves an estimation of the level of fuel efficiency of the fleet stock in terms of price induced technical change. In the second stage, the first equation is coupled with other typical demand variables to determine the overall demand for gasoline. The procedure provides an excellent forecasting equation of both the short-and long-term demand for gasoline.