Food scares, market power and price transmission: the UK BSE crisis

This paper is concerned with the impact of food scares, principallythe BSE crisis in the UK, and focuses on price transmissionin vertically related markets. We show that if market powerhas an effect on the farm–retail margin, this determinesthe specification of the cointegrating relationship and thusprovides a test of market power. The results for the UK beefchain suggest that we cannot reject the importance of marketpower. The impact of the BSE crisis on farm prices is foundto be more than double that on retail prices, thus corroboratingpublic concerns regarding a differential impact of food scareson retailers and producers.     

中国南方木材市场整合程度与价格传导机制研究

运用协整检验、格兰杰检验及市场综合联系指数方法对中国南方10省市2002~2014年12年间的木材市场整合程度与传导机制进行研究。结果表明:南方木材市场⑴具有长期整合趋势,但短期内由于某些因素的影响而阻碍了市场整合;⑵不存在严格的"价格变化中心";⑶价格影响机制以非对称传导为主。     

国际大米价格波动对国内大米价格的传递效应研究

［目的］国际粮食价格波动会对国内粮食价格产生影响,其影响程度和途径一直是农产品价格领域的研究热点。［方法］基于2002年1月至2017年6月的月度数据,运用Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型检验了国际大米价格与国内大米价格的长期均衡与短期输入关系,在考虑国内大米价格形成机制的基础上分析了国际大米价格的影响程度,并进一步检验了大米与其他粮食品种价格间的整合关系。［结果］（1）国内大米价格与国际大米价格保持长期均衡关系,短期内国内大米价格对国际大米价格波动的弹性为00226。（2）国际大米价格对国内大米价格具有显著的影响,在控制其他变量不变的前提下,国际大米价格每上涨1%,国内大米价格会上升约01%。（3）Johansen协整检验表明大米会与其他粮食品种价格保持长期整合关系,国际大米价格上涨可能会通过间接渠道传递至国内大米市场。［结论］因此不仅需要关注国际大米价格对国内大米价格的影响,还需要关注其他粮食品种对大米价格的影响。     

Does Market Structure Influence Price Transmission in the Agro‐food Sector? A Meta‐analysis Perspective

There exists a large literature on price transmission in agro‐food sectors. However, a great majority of empirical studies focus on the existence of asymmetry and, by and large, do not investigate the reason for its presence or absence. This is in sharp contrast to the theoretical literature that provides a number of explanations of why we should expect (a)symmetry. In response, this paper investigates the reasons for asymmetric price transmission in the agro‐food chain, using meta‐analysis of existing studies. Our focus is on the organizational and institutional characteristics of the agro‐food supply chain. Our findings suggest that asymmetric price transmission in farm–retail relationships is more likely to occur in sectors/countries with more fragmented farm structure, higher governmental support and more restrictive regulations on price controls in the retail sector. On the other hand, more restrictive regulations on entry barriers in the retail sector and the relative importance of the sector tend to promote symmetric farm–retail price transmission. The latter is also more likely in the presence of a strong processing industry.     

Crisis Behind Closed Doors: Global Food Crisis and Local Hunger

The high and volatile food prices in 2007–8 triggered estimates of massive increases in poverty and hunger. However, hunger and volatile food prices have long been a feature of developing economies. This paper examines the impact of high global food prices on domestic terms‐of‐trade, food consumption and child undernutrition in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Liberia and Sierra Leone, comparing findings with the impacts of ‘seasonality’. As high international food prices permeated domestic markets, households in all the case study areas resorted to coping strategies common in the annual hunger season. Though acute malnutrition has not risen as consistently as in a seasonal hunger crisis, reduced micronutrient intake threatens to have severe long‐term consequences for health and poverty reduction. The similar impacts of seasonal and global food price rises on households provide an opportunity to design appropriate interventions to protect livelihoods.     

Estimating the Degree of Market Integration

Existing tests of spatial market integration are commonly based on statistical criteria without an explicit link to an economic model of price determination. This article proposes new measures of market integration defined directly in terms of a well-known spatial price determination model and develops an econometric methodology for estimating these measures. Due to the intractability of the conditional density function of prices, we use indirect inference to estimate the model parameters and market integration measures. The methodology is illustrated with simulated data and is applied to soybean price data for the United States, Brazil, and the EU.     

Crisis? What Crisis? The Normality of the Current Food Crisis

The 2005–8 food crisis was a shock to political elites, but in some respects the situation was normal. Food policies are failing to respond adequately to the squeeze on land, people, health and environment. Strong evidence of systems failure and stress, termed here New Fundamentals, ought to reframe twenty‐first century food politics and effort. Yet so far, international discourse is too often narrow and technical. The paper suggests that 2005–8 reinforced how the dominant twentieth century productionist policy paradigm is running out of steam. This assumed that producing more food would resolve social problems. Yet distortions in markets, access and culture remain. At national and international levels of governance, despite realization of the enormity of the challenge ahead, there is still a belief in slow incremental change.     

新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。