Exports and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in four of the Arab Gulf countries, namely, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman for the period 1973–93. The estimates presented indicate a positive and significant relation between the two variables. Also, the statistical adequacy of the models used is supported by the following diagnostic tests. The Bruesch-Godfrey statistic suggests the absence of serial correlation. The Farely-Hinich test fails to reject the null hypothesis that the models are structurally stable. And both the White and Hausman specification tests show that the models are correctly specified.     

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Abstract

The goal of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, i.e. Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, over the period 1980–2012. We employ panel unit root tests, and Error Correction Model and cointegration techniques to detect long-run and short-run causalities between the variables used in our study. The overall empirical results reveal that the financial sector development contributes significantly to economic growth in the GCC countries. Our results could be of great interest for policymakers since the financial sector could play a crucial role in lowering the dependency of the governments to oil revenues and could contribute significantly to spur economic growth.     

Are costs really sticky? Evidence from publicly listed companies in the UAE

This article measures the degree of adjustment between operating revenues and costs for publicly listed companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Traditional cost models assume that variable costs change proportionally in response to an upward or downward fluctuation in demand. However, in recent years, such an assumption has been questioned by a variety of papers from the economics and accounting fields. Typically, cost stickiness is defined as costs decreasing by less than 1% when sales decrease by 1%, while reacting closer to the proportion of change when sales increase. This study, unlike the vast majority of the literature, did not find cost stickiness in the UAE after using panel data regression analysis. The main explanation is that UAE has mostly expatriate labour force that does not have the typical benefits of employment protection legislation (EPL) available in other national jurisdictions. EPL is a main reason that costs adjustments during decreasing sales is curbed due to the associated costs of firing employees.     

Measuring and explaining the efficiencies of the United Arab Emirates banking system

Using newly collected data from a survey distributed to all banks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), this article measures economic efficiency in the banking industry, namely allocative, technical, pure technical and scale efficiency. Employing a nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, the study estimates the efficiency for a cross section of the UAE banks in 2004. The results indicate that the dominant source of inefficiency in the UAE banking is stemming from allocative inefficiency rather than technical inefficiency. Furthermore, the main source of the relatively small size, technical inefficiency in the UAE banking industry is not the scale inefficiency but rather pure technical inefficiency. The results further indicate that the UAE banks are able to use their input resources more efficiently when they have more branches, and that newer banks are performing better than older banks on average. Moreover, the results also show that short experiences of employees affect efficiencies negatively and government ownership tends to reduce efficiency (as the government shares increase in the bank, the efficiency scores get lower). Finally, the most interesting results have to do with finding higher average efficiencies in banks that employ more women, more managers and less national citizens of the UAE.     

The Gendered Complexities of Promoting Female Entrepreneurship in the Gulf

This paper explores women’s entrepreneurial activities in the Oman and Qatar in light of the state attention given to promoting entrepreneurship in the region over the past decade. In the Gulf Arab countries, like in many rapidly developing economies, neoliberal growth discourse abounds. Along with this, the promotion of entrepreneurship and embrace of individual enterprise is paramount. Despite the dominance of the state in political and economic spaces, Gulf governments have embraced the rhetoric of the market and entrepreneurship. Drawing from semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observation conducted between 2011 and 2015, this paper examines this phenomenon. In a region stereotyped with weak gender development outcomes, female entrepreneurship is largely cast as a positive development aimed at liberating and empowering women through individual enterprise. In contrast, this paper finds that the same forces that are meant to empower women often reproduce or reinforce certain gender norms while introducing new forms of dependency. Gulf female entrepreneurs confront competing tensions within three intersecting political economy logics: the structural logic of the economy, the logic of development narratives, and the logic of socio-economic organisation.     

On the determinants of obesity: evidence from the UAE

This article investigates the possible determinants of being overweight and obese in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), controlling for age and education status. We use a novel dataset constructed from survey responses of university undergraduate students. Using OLS, logistic and ordered logistic regressions, we find that male, affluent and nonnational students face a higher risk of being obese (or overweight). The results also show that cultural and geographical factors interact with some behavioural aspects related to lifestyle in determining weight status. Students originating from other Middle East and North Africa countries exhibit higher body mass index (BMI) and odds of being obese with higher frequency of eating out and more computer use. Unexpectedly, fast food consumption and lack of exercise do not seem to contribute to higher risks of being overweight/obese.     

Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures

Daily relationships among stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, excluding Qatar, form two equilibrium relationships with varying predictive power. The Saudi market leads, followed by Bahrain and United Arab Emirates. Kuwait, which is dominated by momentum traders, and Oman have the weakest links with the other GCC markets. Only the Saudi index can predict—and be predicted by—New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures prices. Therefore these markets are candidates for diversified regional portfolios at the country level. The trading day effect is weak for all GCC markets and oil futures prices but remains consistent with findings for the U.S. stock market. (JEL C22 , F3 , Q49 )     

Energy insecurity in Asia: A multi-dimensional analysis

Energy insecurity has been a critical challenge facing Asia’s economic growth. This study constructs a comprehensive index for energy insecurity as well as examines its trend using a sample of 24 selected Asian countries during the 1990–2014 period. For this purpose, principal component analysis is applied to a series of 12 selected variables. The variables are standardized using different techniques including z-score, min-max and softmax normalization. Three different measures of energy insecurity are created accordingly. The empirical results depict the trend of increasing energy insecurity in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. On the other hand, the trend of fluctuating but recently improving energy security was observed in Hong Kong, Japan, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea, and United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the trend of fluctuating but recently increasing energy insecurity was found in Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, and Tajikistan. These findings are robust to all three measures of energy insecurity.     

Corporate governance practices in emerging markets: The case of GCC countries

This paper examines the corporate governance (CG) practices in emerging markets with special reference to the listed firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) oil rich countries. It develops an un-weighted Corporate Governance Index (CGI) model for non-financial firms using recent data. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated with a specific country example. The index identifies thirty internal governance attributes which are abridged in three categories of all the selected firms to form the best CG practices in the region. The results demonstrate that GCC companies adhere to 69% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The results also show that the firms listed in the United Arab Emirates stock markets exhibit the best adherence to the CG attributes examined in the study followed by Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, respectively. The current paper offers valuable recommendations to policy makers to gradually embed strong and specific governance practices. Special emphasis is placed to board effectiveness and structural and organizational frameworks in order to ensure a sustainable quality of CG practices in the region.     

DOES MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION EXIST IN THE MENA REGION? EVIDENCE FROM THE BANKING SECTOR

The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the level of banking competition in selected Middle East and Northern African (MENA) countries. The analysis employs the estimation of a non‐structural indicator (H‐statistic) introduced by Panzar and Rosse and draws upon a panel dataset of eight MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) over the period 1997–2012. The empirical findings are robust towards three different panel data econometric techniques (Ordinary Least Squares, Pooled Generalized Least Squares with Fixed Effects, and Generalized Method of Moments) and consistent with other similar studies, providing sufficient evidence in favour of a banking monopolistic competition regime. Furthermore, the estimation of three other alternative measures of competition (Lerner index, adjusted Lerner index, and conduct parameter) provides similar results, revealing that the banking sector in the MENA region is characterized by a low level of Significant Market Power (SMP). Overall, the analysis shows that, despite similarities in the process of financial regulatory reforms undertaken in the eight MENA countries, the observed competition levels of banks vary substantially, with Algeria and Morocco consistently outperforming the rest of the region.     

Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization

The study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel data for 123 countries in 1970–2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub-indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth. As the results show, globalization indeed promotes growth. The dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries. Although less robustly, information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect.     

How integrated are real estate markets with the world market? Evidence from case-wise bootstrap analysis

We investigate the extent by which real estate markets are integrated with the world market. We apply a case-wise bootstrap analysis — a method that is robust to non-normality and increased volatility that characterises financial markets, especially during periods of distress. We also take into account the effect of the global financial crisis. Our investigation is conducted in relation to five most important and highly internationalised real estate markets, namely, the US, UK, Japan, Australia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We find that the first four markets are integrated with the world market — with Japan, the US, and the UK being the most integrated, but the last one is not. Our results also show that the US real estate market crisis affected the five markets differently. It made the UAE, Australia and the US real estate markets more integrated internationally but resulted in the Japanese market becoming less globally integrated. In the case of the UK, the crisis did not affect at all its level of integration with the world market.     

Does economic openness affect liberal and electoral democracy in a different way? Empirical evidence from developing countries

The focus of this paper was to empirically analyze the impacts of economic liberalization on the liberal and electoral democracy in a sample of 106 less developed and developing countries over the period 1970–2016. The economic relationship between these countries and the global trade and the financial system generates a crucial question of to what extent political conditions are affected by this changing relation. To test these relationships, this paper uses V‐Dem's liberal democracy and electoral democracy indices and nine economic liberalization variables. Utilizing two‐step system dynamic panel GMM estimation indicates that trade openness and economic globalization, de facto strongly affects electoral democracy.     

Political democratization, economic liberalization, and growth volatility

This study empirically investigates the effects of political and economic liberalization on growth volatility using a difference-in-difference method for a sample of 158 countries over the 1970-2005 period. The results show that, when examined separately, economic liberalization leads to a significant reduction in volatility while democratization is not followed by a decrease in growth volatility. For countries that undertake only one liberalization, opening up the economy to international trade reduces volatility in growth; becoming a democracy, on the other hand, seems to increase macroeconomic instability. For countries that implement both political and economic liberalizations, no statistically significant effect on volatility is detected. These results serve to provide additional support for the policy recommendation that developing countries should liberalize their economy first and then consider political liberalization.     

The relationship between remittances and macroeconomic variables in times of political and social upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring

If Tunisia is hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators relative to other Arab countries, the popular 2011 uprisings underscored the fragility of its main economic pillars, including those of tourism and foreign direct investment. This paper examines the economic impact of migrants’ remittances, which are expected to exhibit relatively countercyclical behaviour during periods of intense upheaval. This study is novel in its methodological approach, which is used to pinpoint the dynamic effects of remittances on key macroeconomic variables within an unstable framework. The analysis reveals that the effect of remittances on Tunisia's economy has varied over time. Prior to the Arab Spring, remittances had a short‐term negative influence on economic growth, varying effects on domestic investment and positive impacts on consumption. In considering the post‐Arab uprisings, positive and strong impacts of remittances on growth and consumption are found in the long run while negative and moderate investment effects of remittances are shown over the short and medium term.     

Constitutionalism and credibility in reforming economies1

There has been relatively little investigation of the effect of constitutional transformations on the economic transition in post‐communist countries. We develop a simple signalling model in which constitutionalism – a commitment to limit political power and provide judicial defence of basic rights – reinforces the credibility of pro‐market candidates’ electoral promises and boosts public support for economic reforms. These findings are tested using opinion poll data on public support for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union, in the 1990s. In a two‐stage procedure we show that public support for market reforms is higher in countries where incumbents have taken deliberate steps to increase political accountability and judicial independence. Public support also spurs actual economic reform.     

Earnings differences in the labor market of the Arab Gulf states: The case of Kuwait

The Arab Gulf states of Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been experiencing common trends of growth and development. The shared features include a large and expanding government sector, ambitious development programs, high standards of welfare and income and high dependence on migrant workers. Without the expatriate manpower it would have been virtually impossible for the economies of these countries to implement their development programs. Yet the presence of expatriates has a direct impact on the size distribution of labor income. Using the rich data of the 1972/73 budget survey this paper shows that the distribution of labor income is more equitable within the indigenous labor force, i.e., Kuwaitis, than within the migrant workers who come from different environments and have varied experiences and educational attainments. The institutional rules prevailing in Kuwait, as well as other Arab Gulf States, discriminate against migrant workers. The paper shows that about 50% of the wage difference between Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti workers is due to discriminatory practices in the labor market. In view of the projected increase in demand for foreign workers in the Arab Gulf States, policy makers are in urgent need of manpower planning and a reconsideration of their discriminatory policies against foreign workers.     

Oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in Arab oil economies: time to rethink the paradigm

This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies.     

Is reducing energy intensity enough to put the oil-rich GCC states on a more sustainable environmental path?

Although energy wealth rankings place the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries among the richest in the world, these economies face unsustainable growth in energy use and continuous environmental degradation. This paper examines the long-run relationship between per capita \(\hbox {CO}_2\) emissions and energy intensity in the GCC, while controlling for economic activity, the size of the manufacturing sector, and institutional qualities. We use heterogeneous panel techniques that account for heterogeneity and cross-country dependence for the period 1971–2011. We find that energy intensity and emissions are cointegrated in all GCC countries and that conservation and energy efficiency policies have greater potential in reducing emissions in Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE. A regional goal of mitigating emissions by 10% would require a reduction in energy intensity by 12%, on average. Last, we find that judiciary independence is an essential institutional quality that ensures the successful implementation and the stringent enforcement of long-term environmental policies.     

IMF conditionality and central bank independence

This paper studies the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in promoting central bank independence (CBI). While anecdotal evidence suggests that the IMF has been playing a vital role for CBI, the underlying mechanisms of this influence are not well understood. We argue that the IMF has ulterior motives when pressing countries for increased CBI. First, IMF loans are primarily transferred to local monetary authorities. Thus, enhancing CBI aims to insulate central banks from political interference to shield loan disbursements from government abuse. Second, several loan conditionality clauses imply a substantial transfer of political leverage over economic policy making to monetary authorities. As a result, the IMF through pushing for CBI seeks to establish a politically insulated veto player to promote its economic policy reform agenda. We argue that the IMF achieves these aims through targeted lending conditions. We hypothesize that the inclusion of these loan conditions leads to greater CBI. To test our hypothesis, we use a recently available dataset on IMF programs that includes detailed information on CBI reforms and IMF conditionality for up to 124 countries between 1980 and 2012. Our findings indicate that targeted loan conditionality plays a critical role in promoting CBI. These results are robust towards varying modeling assumptions and withstand a battery of robustness checks.