Risk,responsibility and negative responses: a qualitative study of parental trust in childhood vaccinations

Abstract

Childhood vaccination programmes have benefits that far outweigh risks, in public health terms. However, some parents decide not to immunise their children. This paper explores the ways in which such parents talk about the perceived risks and benefits incurred by vaccinating (or not vaccinating) their children. Between 2013 and 2016, we undertook 29 in-depth interviews with non-vaccinating and/or ‘vaccine hesitant’ parents in Fremantle, Western Australia and Adelaide, South Australia. Our analysis of the interviews identified particular constructions of risk and responsibility. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using both inductive and deductive processes. Our analysis mirrors the chronological process through which parents navigate risk. We start with the concept of ‘responsibilisation’, which underpins parental engagement with decision-making and praxis. We then explore how responsiblisation takes the form of detailed and time-consuming ‘research’. Parents then attempt to navigate multiple and conflicting ‘risks’: the risk of vaccine-preventable diseases, risks associated with vaccination and risks associated with their own perceived lack of understanding. After engaging with risk, parents justify the decision and accept the associated ‘responsibility’. Parents use this sense of responsibility to navigate through the ‘responses’ of others, which we conceptualise as the risk of unwelcome consequences. In conclusion, parents have a reflexive understanding of the physical, psychological and socio-economic risks they incur as a consequence of their choice to either partially vaccinate, delay vaccination or reject vaccination for their children. They construct these risks with reference to particular discourses, engagement with expert opinion and lifestyle choices emblematic of late modernity. The risks they are willing to accept and the subsequent responsibility and blame they assume when choosing to abstain, or partially abstain, from vaccinating their children are, to the parents, coherent with their interpretation of best parenting practice.     

The determinants of integrating policy-based and community-based adaptation into coastal hazard risk management: a resilience approach

Abstract

A growing number of studies focus on improving the understanding of how the households’ adaptations can be encouraged in the process of coastal hazards and risk management. Particularly, this process is undergoing a major paradigm shift as it moves from an approach dominated by policy-based adaptation to another one in which community-based resilience building is favored. Thus, this article aims to apply a resilience approach to improve the knowledge about how public measures influence private autonomous adaptation behavior, through a transdisciplinary investigation of household adaptation behavior and its determinants. The Resilience Framework of Household Autonomous Adaptation to Climate- and Weather-Related Hazard Risks (ROHACHR) is proposed and combined with a focus group meeting and multivariate analysis to compare pre-disaster, during a disaster, post-disaster adaptations, and resilience behavior of households. Using an empirical survey of the households in three coastal municipalities in Taiwan, we examine the relationships between public measures and private adaptations that provides three distinguishing types of household behavior: ‘core’, ‘trust in governmental aid’, and ‘awareness and structures’. Results show that providing hazard risk information may be one step toward encouraging private autonomous adaptations. Several factors that help foster resilience also appear to be influential in households’ adaptation decisions, such as specific and positive governmental aid, information trust, and social capital. Based on these results, it shows that the ROHACHR is useful to characterize households’ adaptation and resilience behavior and explain how they respond to public measures. Finally, the policy implications of our findings for improving resilience of coastal communities and encouraging public-private collaboration in the process of hazard risk management are discussed.     

Risk,Capital, and Operating Efficiency: Evidence from Taiwan’s Life Insurance Market

ABSTRACT

In this article, we investigate the relationships among risk, capital, and operating efficiency for Taiwanese life insurance companies from 2004 to 2009 by using the two-stage least-square approach. We find a positive relation between inefficiency and product risk. At the same time, efficient insurers are seen as taking higher asset risk than inefficient insurers. A contrasting finding also shows that the relationship between capital and product risk is positive, while the relationship between capital and asset risk is negative. Moreover, we present a negative relationship between inefficiency and capital level, indicating that well-capitalized insurers operate more efficiently than poorly capitalized insurers.     

People’s responses to risks of electromagnetic fields and trust in government policy: the role of perceived risk,benefits and control

Trust in government policy affects the way people perceive and handle risks. In our study, we investigated the relationships between trust in government policy regarding electromagnetic fields (EMF), perceived risk and perceived benefits of public and personal EMF sources, perceived control over exposure to EMF and responses to the possible EMF health risk (e.g. protest against placement of mobile phone base stations or power lines, or taking own measures against EMF exposure). Previous research indicated that perceived risk and benefits mediate the relationship between trust and people’s risk responses. Additionally, we suggest that perceived control over EMF exposure affects the relation between trust in government policy and perceived risk, and, consequently, the risk responses. We performed a survey among the Dutch population (n?=?1009), which contained questions about risk responses to EMF, perceived risk and benefits of several EMF sources, trust in government policy and perceived control over EMF exposure. Comparing public EMF sources, i.e. power lines and mobile phone base stations, to personal EMF sources, i.e. microwave ovens and cordless and mobile phones, we tested our hypotheses. Variations in risk responses to both public and personal EMF sources were mainly explained by risk perception. In addition, perceived risk partially mediated the relationship between trust in government policy and risk responses. For public sources, perceived control over exposure weakened the negative relationship between trust and perceived risk. We conclude that, especially in people with low perceived control, a lack of trust in government policy may enhance perceptions of health risks, thereby increasing their inclination for risk responses.     

Sociology,risk and the environment: a material-semiotic approach

Abstract

Sociology has made significant contributions to the conceptualisation of risk and critique of technical risk analysis. It has, however, unintentionally reinforced the division of labour between the natural/technical and social sciences in risk analysis. This paper argues that the problem with conceptualisations of risk is not a misplaced emphasis on calculation. Rather, it is that we have not adequately dealt with ontological distinctions implicit in both sociological and technical work on risk between material or objective risks and our socially mediated understandings and interpretations of those risks. While acknowledging that risks are simultaneously social and technical, sociologists have not, in practice, provided the conceptual and methodological tools to apprehend risk in a less dualistic manner. This limits our ability both to analyse actors and processes outside the social domain and to explore the recursive relationships between risk calculus, social action and the material outcomes of risk. In response, this paper develops a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk and provides an assessment of its relevance to more sociologically informed risk governance. It introduces the ideas of co-constitution, emergent entities and enactment as instruments for reconciling the material and social worlds in a sociological study of risk. It further illustrates the application of a material-semiotic approach using these concepts in the nuclear industry. In deconstructing social–material dualisms in the sociology of risk, this paper argues that a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk enables both technical and social perspectives on risk not only to coexist but to collaborate, widening the scope for interdisciplinary research.     

A literature review on the relationship between risk governance and public engagement in relation to complex environmental issues

Abstract

Over the last two decades demands for greater public engagement have emerged in policy circles and academia, particularly when it comes to risk-related decision-making, or risk governance. However, the literature shows there is a lack of evidence when it comes to the impact of public engagement initiatives and significant questions remain over who to include, what processes to follow and what outcomes to expect. Furthermore, the literature exhibits contradictions in how researchers with different theoretical approaches attempt to answer these kinds of questions. This paper therefore proposes a systematic literature review in order to map the current breadth and variation in the literature and to identify any major variations from previous findings. A methodical search query has been applied to Scopus and Web of Science to search for academic articles. These were subsequently assessed for their suitability through a structured literature selection process. The results identify a number of methodologically different approaches in which knowledge on risk governance and public engagement has been developed. These diverse approaches are eventually grouped into clusters based on similarities in co-citations and references that are identified through bibliometrics and a subsequent content analysis. The proposed clusters have been labeled risk governance; environmental science, policy and governance; disaster risk management; science and technology studies; post-normal science; and public understanding of science. These six clusters are ultimately discussed and differentiated based on their main features which is particularly relevant for researchers and policy-makers seeking to get an understanding of, or broaden their disciplinary engagement with, risk governance and public engagement.     

The human side of disaster

Public engagement through deliberative processes is promoted in both academic and policy circles as a potential means to build public trust in risk decisions and decision‐makers. Governments in particular seem to optimistically take a positive relationship between public engagement and trust almost for granted. This paper provides a new and critical analysis of this hoped‐for relationship, questioning whether such a direct and positive link between engagement and trust is a false hope. The paper draws upon personal experience of deliberative processes to discuss key components of an engagement process that have the potential to impact positively on trust. Specifically, who is engaged and which interests are represented; an open and collaborative framing of the discussion, and a direct and clear relationship between engagement and the risk decision. But the paper argues that given the complexities of optimising these process elements and in the light of the known underlying dimensions of trust, expectations are misplaced and that enduring trust is unlikely to spring from engagement itself. This is not to negate the other benefits of engagement, rather it is to focus on those key elements that will need to be in place, both process and beyond, if trust is to be enhanced.     

Value for Money and Risk Relationships in Public–Private Partnerships: Evaluating Program‐based Evidence

Value for money – VfM (the provision of improved public infrastructure and services at lower cost) – is a central rationale for the deployment of public–private partnerships (P3s). However, it remains unclear how VfM is actually created in P3s. There are several issues that surround the ex ante evaluation conducted during P3 assessment, including: transparency of the process, engagement of stakeholders, potential restrictions on current and future public sector flexibility, and political influences that call into question the legitimacy of the process. This study examines these issues using Alberta's P3 projects executed since 2003, and interviews 35 key participants and stakeholders. The findings suggest that while the transfer of risk from the public to the private sector is a key driver of VfM, it may overstate the extent to which planning related risks can be transferred. This paper recommends enhanced VfM component disclosures and transparency as the evaluation process evolves. Furthermore, a more rigorous approach to risk conceptualisation and valuation should be adopted. Risk allocation should be about managing not only occurrence, but also impact of the risk factor. Finally, political interference must be moderated to allow for the optimal realisation of the best possible choices presented by P3 deployments.     

Responding Public Demand for Assurance of Genetically Modified Crops: Case from Japan

Genetically modified (GM) crops provide a classic example of risk characterised with uncertainty and ambiguity. This article analyses the risk management of GM crops in Japan as a case and investigates how the Japanese government has responded to the growing public demand for safety assurance of new agricultural and food varieties. It argues that, while the government realised the need to respond to public reluctance in consuming GM food by adopting more resilient and discursive management, it has faced a dilemma to incorporate the new type of approach into conventional risk assessment. This tension was reflected in the process and policy outputs of the consensus conference on GM crops, which was ambiguously placed in the risk management process. This article shows the dynamics of opting for policies to manage scientifically uncertain risks in particular socio‐political and institutional contexts. Such understanding can suggest ways towards enhanced policy debates.     

What drives support for self-driving car technology in the United States?

Abstract

Recent advances in automotive technology have made fully automated self-driving cars technologically feasible. Despite offering many benefits such as increased safety, improved fuel efficiency, and greater disability access, public support for self-driving cars remains low. While previous studies find that demographic factors such as age and sex influence self-driving car support, limited research has examined variables that are well known to predict public attitudes toward emerging technology. Using self-report data from a quota sample of American adults (N?=?1008), we find that age and sex are not significantly associated with support for self-driving car policies when controlling for these other variables. Instead, significant predictors of support included trust in automotive institutions and regulatory bodies, recognition of self-driving car benefits, positive affect toward self-driving cars, and a greater perception that human-driven cars are riskier than self-driving cars. Importantly, we also find that individualism is negatively associated with support. That is, people who value personal autonomy and limited government regulation may perceive policies encouraging self-driving car use as threatening to their worldviews. Altogether, our results suggest strategies for encouraging greater public support of self-driving vehicles while also forecasting potential barriers as this technology emerges as a fixture in transportation policy.     

Social Transfers And Income Inequality In Old Age

Abstract

This paper examines variation in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations with modern welfare systems. The analysis of income inequality across countries with different retirement income systems provides a perspective on public pension policy choices and designs and their distributional implications. Because of the progressive nature of public pension programs, we hypothesize that there is an inverse relationship between the quality of public pension benefits and old-age income inequality—that is, countries with comprehensive, universal, and generous public pension systems will exhibit more equal distributions of income in old age.

Luxembourg Income Study data indeed show that cross-national variation in old-age income inequality is partly explained by differences in the percentage of seniors’ total income derived from public pension transfers. Sweden, for example, has the highest level of government transfers and the lowest level of old-age income inequality, while Israel and the United States have the lowest levels of dependency on government transfers and the highest levels of income inequality. A notable exception is Canada, where public transfers represent only a moderate portion of elderly income, yet old-age income inequality is relatively low. These findings suggest that quality of public pension benefits does indeed play a role in explaining differences in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations, yet these variations are also likely influenced by other factors.     

Risk as feelings or risk and feelings? A cross‐lagged panel analysis

This article focuses on affective and cognitive processes underlying the perception of risk. A limitation with most process models of affect/cognition is that they include only concurrent emotions. By following a group (n?=?129) of military sailors prospectively during an international operation, we explored longitudinal relations between perceived risk and related feelings.

Longitudinal cross‐lagged path models were estimated to explore the relationships between perceived risk, worry, and emotional distress. Results gave support to earlier studies by showing that cross‐sectional measures of risk and worry were weakly related. Across time, worry and emotional distress were reciprocally related. Perceived risk had impact on worry but not on emotional distress. Neither worry nor emotional distress influenced perceived risk.

The risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis postulates a direct effect of feelings onto behavioural choice, and a reciprocal relation between cognitive evaluations and feelings.

Our findings do not support a reciprocal relation between judgements of risk and feelings, but an impact from risk on to worry. Between various measures of feelings reciprocity seems to exist. Further replications, including also behavioural measures, are needed.     

The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting

In this paper, we study the role of the volatility risk premium for the forecasting performance of implied volatility. We introduce a non-parametric and parsimonious approach to adjust the model-free implied volatility for the volatility risk premium and implement this methodology using more than 20 years of options and futures data on three major energy markets. Using regression models and statistical loss functions, we find compelling evidence to suggest that the risk premium adjusted implied volatility significantly outperforms other models, including its unadjusted counterpart. Our main finding holds for different choices of volatility estimators and competing time-series models, underlying the robustness of our results.     

An explanatory analysis of perceived risk decision weights (perceived-risk attitudes) and perceived benefit decision weights (perceived-benefit attitudes) in risk-value models

Abstract

All decision making requires a trade-off between risks and values. While Markowitz defined risk as the variance of returns (thus reasoning that investors should consider it as undesirable), the more general risk–value framework allows risk to be defined as a person’s subjective judgments. Psychological risk–return models go further, decomposing observed behavior (risk taking) into two processes: (1) a judgment of benefits and risks and (2) a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived risks, with a person-specific willingness to trade-off units of returns (benefits) for units of risk, conceptualized as attitude toward perceived risk (PRA) and attitude toward perceived benefits (PBA). PRA and PBA describe the degree to which people find perceived risks and benefits attractive, all other things being equal, and are assumed to be relatively stable across situations and domains. We test this assumption in an empirical study, checking the temporal stability of PRA and PBA (using the a Domain-Specific Risk-Taking [DOSPERT] scale ) and the cross-task stability of PBA (performing comparisons between the DOSPERT and the Columbia Card Task[CCT]). Finally, we explain both PRA and PBA using the Big Five personality dimensions and Stimulating–Instrumental Risk Inventory (SIRI), showing that PBA weights increase with openness to experience, while the negative effect of perceived risk on risk taking (PRA) increases with conscientiousness and decreases with stimulating risk taking. The results show that PBA and PRA can be treated as traits which, in some instances at least, are stable across time and tasks, and which can be partially explained by personality, providing a link to the idea of a personality dependent ‘ideal point’ for risk preference.     

Biometric Solvency Risk for Portfolios of General Life Contracts. I. The Single-Life Multiple Decrement Case

Abstract

Solvency II splits life insurance risk into seven risk classes consisting of three biometric risks (mortality risk, longevity risk, and disability/morbidity risk) and four nonbiometric risks (lapse risk, expense risk, revision risk, and catastrophe risk). The best estimate liabilities for the biometric risks are valued with biometric life tables (mortality and disability tables), while those of the nonbiometric risks require alternative valuation methods. The present study is restricted to biometric risks encountered in traditional single-life insurance contracts with multiple causes of decrement. Based on the results of quantitative impact studies, process risk was deemed to be not significant enough to warrant an explicit calculation. It was therefore assumed to be implicitly included in the systematic/parameter risk, resulting in a less complex standard formula. For the purpose of internal models and improved risk management, it appears important to capture separately or simultaneously all risk components of biometric risks. Besides its being of interest for its own sake, this leads to a better understanding of the standard approach and its application extent. Based on a total balance sheet approach we express the liability risk solvency capital of an insurance portfolio as value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk of the prospective liability risk understood as random present value of future cash flows at a given time. The proposed approach is then applied to determine the biometric solvency capital for a portfolio of general life contracts. Using the conditional mean and variance of a portfolio’s prospective liability risk and a gamma distribution approximation we obtain simple solvency capital formulas as well as corresponding solvency capital ratios. To account for the possibility of systematic/parameter risk, we propose either to shift the biometric life tables or to apply a stochastic biometric model, which allows for random biometric rates. A numerical illustration for a cohort of immediate life annuities in arrears reveals the importance of process risk in the assessment of longevity risk solvency capital.     

Accrual mispricing: Evidence from European sovereign debt crisis

PurposeThis paper examines the accrual anomaly on the European market and the impact of the financial crisis on its dynamics.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of public European firms, during the period 2005-2016, this paper follows Sloan (1996) seminal work and measures accruals as Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney (1995).FindingsThere is no evidence that accrual anomaly persists on European markets. The study shows that, contrary to previous research, investors are not underweighting the accrual component of earnings and that accruals are not a good predictor of future stock returns.Research limitations/implicationsOur study has two limitations. First, due to the lack of data, the original sample was reduced to about one third. Second, results must be interpreted carefully since the sample period may be seen as an outlier case attributed to the crisis. Research on future years may unveil a conclusion on this.Practical implicationsResults suggest that transaction costs and idiosyncratic risk are no longer a barrier to investors. Results also point toward a possible new outcome in investor´s behaviour during crisis. Economically, given the lower returns that can be obtained on today markets, it makes sense that investors may reduce their risk aversion levels to get more returns.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the ongoing debate about accruals anomaly and market efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, it provides an original contribution to the literature by framing the accrual anomaly during the European debt crisis.     

Reproducibility investigation of elicitation techniques in risk assessment for hydraulic turbines

Abstract

Certain elicitation techniques exert some control on expert opinions by leading them to a consensus or to a specific choice. In the absence of such guidelines, experts rely on their own knowledge to formulate opinions. This can result in large dispersions and affects the decision maker’s judgment. In this situation, we wonder what the relevant elicitation techniques are and how we can help experts to express their knowledge. From literature review, it is hard to decide if elicitation techniques are equivalent or not, which justifies the reproducibility analysis that we carry out in this paper. In this study, multiple experts have been involved in order to predict the defect size in hydraulic turbines, according to four proposed elicitation techniques. The comparison between these techniques was performed based on a suggested algorithm using the area metric concept. Our Findings show that elicitation techniques with ‘support’ tend to limit variations between experts and might be suitable only when prior knowledge on the expected elicited variable is available. Otherwise, we can end up with a distorted opinion of the elicited variable and an erroneous risk assessment.     

Aquaculture: an emerging issue for public concern

The present paper reviews the literature on the risks and benefits of aquaculture. By bringing together sources from both natural sciences and social sciences, we provide a synthesis of perspectives on the relatively novel activity of modern aquaculture. This review consists of three parts: first, a background to aquaculture; second, an overview of the scientific risks and benefits; and third, an introduction to the related public perception issues. We establish five main risk‐related areas: human health, environment, organizational, fish welfare, and social issues and utilize these to highlight potential divergences in expert and lay perceptions. Drawing on findings from the risk perception literature, particularly those related to previous food‐related controversies, it is argued that aquaculture incorporates a range of issues, which have already been shown to be a catalyst for public concern. As such, we conclude that, in addition to natural science studies, aquaculture requires a social science approach in order to be able to anticipate and address future controversies in a timely and efficient manner. However, to date, only few articles address aquaculture from a social science perspective, and the present paper is offered as a step in this direction.     

Public sector risk managers and spending cuts: mitigating risks

This paper reports case study research, the results of which are used to consider whether councils have recognised the potentially substantially increased social risks they may create as they seek to reduce their spending in line with the UK Government’s programme of public sector austerity. It discusses the conceptual shift in the public sector risk management literature towards social risk management (SRM), presents empirical evidence of social risks and considers the approach to SRM developed by other organisations. It finds no evidence of SRM within the case study authorities and so advocates a shift in the public sector risk management culture from a preoccupation with defensive-institutional risk management practices to a more proactive social dimension. In so doing, it discusses the goals of SRM, the constraints limiting their achievement, metrics for measuring social risk, tools for mitigating social risk and the problems faced when operationalising SRM.