Non‐Gaussian dynamic Bayesian modelling for panel data

A first order autoregressive non‐Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus allowing for outliers and asymmetries. The modelling approach is designed to gain sufficient flexibility, without sacrificing interpretability and computational ease. The model incorporates individual effects and covariates and we pay specific attention to the elicitation of the prior. As the prior structure chosen is not proper, we derive conditions for the existence of the posterior. By considering a model with individual dynamic parameters we are also able to formally test whether the dynamic behaviour is common to all units in the panel. The methodology is illustrated with two applications involving earnings data and one on growth of countries. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental and Social Policy and Earning Persistence

In recent years, the effect of disclosure on environmental and social information has been the subject of much research in an Anglo‐Saxon context. The European field, and especially the French companies, have not been sufficiently discussed. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between social and environmental disclosure and earning persistence (as a proxy of earning quality). We use the content analysis method with annual reports as a measure of social and environmental disclosure; the empirical validation is applied to the companies listed in the SBF 250 French stock market index over the 2005–2010 period. To measure earning persistence we opt for a regression of a time‐series model on panel data. The findings show that French companies are characterized by a high level of social and environmental reporting; this situation may affect positively the quality of earnings such as more persistent earnings. This means that companies with a higher level of social and environmental commitment are more likely to take benefits and to communicate more persistent earnings and be desirable to investors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Panel estimates of a two-tiered earnings frontier

This paper uses panel data to estimate a two-tiered instead of a one-tiered frontier model. The innovation is to develop a two-step maximum likelihood procedure yielding consistent estimates of inefficiency, while at the same time accounting for heterogeneity. The model is applied by estimating a ‘two-tiered’ earnings function to obtain indices of worker and firm incomplete labour market wage information using panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1969–84). The estimation preserves the traditional quadratic age-earnings profile, but measures the extent to which employers often pay more than necessary to hire a worker (incomplete employer information), while at the same time, employees often accept wages less than they could otherwise command (incomplete employee information). The results indicate that employees acquire less information than employers. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

权益性超额薪酬、CEO权力强度与真实盈余管理

基于公司治理角度，以2011—2016年沪深A股上市公司非平衡面板数据为样本，分析了A股上市公司真实盈余管理水平是否受到高管团队权益性超额薪酬的影响以及CEO权力强度和内部控制质量对两者关系的调节作用。研究发现，高管权益性超额薪酬与真实盈余管理呈显著正相关关系，CEO权力强度能够显著加强权益性超额薪酬对于真实盈余管理的正向影响，而高质量的内部控制整体上能够抑制权益性超额薪酬对于真实盈余管理的促进作用。     

Foreign entry and the Turkish banking system in 2000s

In recent decades, the role of foreign ownership in banking sectors, and especially the developing ones has become a frequently investigated topic among finance scholars. Similar to many other developing countries seeking to attract foreign direct investments, Turkey has experienced a great increase in the number of foreign-owned banks in the sector following the 2000 and 2001 economic and financial crises. Using panel data regression analysis for a sample of 31 deposit banks operating in Turkey, for the period 2002–2012, we find that foreign ownership has a negative and statistically significant impact on accounting profits, proxied by the ratio of earnings before taxes to total assets. However, contrary to expectations, three other dependent variables representing interest rate spreads, non-lending activities and short term risk, were not found to be significantly associated with foreign ownership.     

Efficiency in pre‐merger and post‐merger non‐bank financial institutions

A two‐part process is employed to analyse the role of efficiency in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in Australian credit unions during the period 1993–1997. The measures of efficiency are derived using the non‐parametric technique of data envelopment analysis. The first part uses panel data in the probit model to relate pure technical efficiency, along with other managerial, regulatory and financial factors, to the probability of merger activity, either as an acquiring or acquired entity. The results indicate that loan portfolio diversification, management ability, earnings and asset size are a significant influence on the probability of acquisition, though the primary determinant of being acquired is smaller asset size. The second part uses a tobit model adapted to a panel framework to analyse post‐merger efficiency. Mergers appear to have improved both pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency in the credit union industry. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative estimation method of earnings growth rate for PEGR strategy

The ambiguous return pattern for the PEGR (the ratio of the stock’s price/earnings to its estimated earnings growth rate) strategy has been documented in literature for the US stock markets. As stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) are objective data, earnings growth rate, however, is estimated by analyst whose method partial explains the PEGR vague return pattern. The purpose of this study is not to deny or substitute analysts’ estimation, but rather, to provide a simple and popular method, log-linear regression model, to forecast the earnings growth rate (G), and examine whether the typical PEGR effect, such as PER (price/earnings ratio) or PBR (price/book ratio) effect, exists by using our alternative estimation method. Our evidence indeed shows that returns on the lowest PEGR portfolio not only dominate over all higher PEGR portfolios, but also beat the market with stochastic dominance (SD) analysis, which is consistent with our prediction. Our results, at least, imply that using the log-linear regression model to construct the PEGR-sorted portfolios can benefit investors and the model is also a good choice for analysts in their forecasting.     

The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis

This study presents an error structure that offers a rich statistical framework for panel data analysis. It includes as special cases most of the error specifications found in longitudinal studies of wages and earnings. A general set of procedures for choosing a specification of this error structure and estimating its parameters appears in the first part of this study. The last section applies these procedures to fit an error structure for wages and earnings of prime-age males using data from the Michigan Panel of Income Dynamics.     

盈余管理与审计意见的实证分析

盈余管理一直以来是会计实证研究的一个热点问题,本文主要从上市公司的盈余管理对审计意见的影响进行分析,研究发现,公司的盈余管理行为并未对审计意见的类型产生重要影响。但对于财务状况较差的上市公司而言,其盈余管理程度越高,其被出具非标准无保留审计意见的可能性越大。     

Simulation Estimation of the Convergence of the Black–White Earnings Gap and Income Dynamics*

In this article, the effect of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap and income dynamics is studied through the dynamic panel Tobit models implemented using the simulation estimators. It is found that the black–white earnings gap declined moderately after the implementation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act in 1965. Based on the simulation studies of wage trajectories, it is also found that the positive impact of the Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap is especially significant for the group of middle‐aged and highly educated workers. Moreover, the rich dynamic structure of the earnings process is identified from the Current Population Survey‐Social Security Administration data set. It is shown that the various sources of dynamics in the earnings process are dominated by spurious state dependence for both blacks and whites.     

Estimating the returns to schooling: a likelihood approach based on normal mixtures

In this paper we develop likelihood‐based methods for statistical inference in a joint system of equations for the choice of length of schooling and earnings. The model for schooling choice is assumed to be an ordered probit model, whereas the earnings equation contains variables that are flexible transformations of schooling and experience, with corresponding coefficients that are allowed to be heterogeneous across individuals. Under the assumption that the distribution of the random terms of the model can be expressed as a finite mixture of multinormal distributions, we show that the joint probability distribution for schooling and earnings can be expressed on closed form. In an application of our method on Norwegian data, we find that the mixed Gaussian model offers a substantial improvement in fit to the (heavy‐tailed) empirical distribution of log‐earnings compared to a multinormal benchmark model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新准则下上市公司盈余管理及其审计要点

盈余管理是企业管理当局经营战略和管理战略的需要组成部份。近年来盈余管理已成为企业管理层粉饰财务报告的主要手段之一。本文从盈余管理的角度,对新颁布的企业会计准则体系对上市公司盈余管理的影响进行了分析,指出了新会计准则下企业盈余管理的可操作空间,并提出了注册会计师对上市公司盈余管理的审计要点。     

Labor market entry and earnings dynamics: Bayesian inference using mixtures‐of‐experts Markov chain clustering

This paper analyzes patterns in the earnings development of young labor market entrants over their life cycle. We identify four distinctly different types of transition patterns between discrete earnings states in a large administrative dataset. Further, we investigate the effects of labor market conditions at the time of entry on the probability of belonging to each transition type. To estimate our statistical model we use a model‐based clustering approach. The statistical challenge in our application comes from the difficulty in extending distance‐based clustering approaches to the problem of identifying groups of similar time series in a panel of discrete‐valued time series. We use Markov chain clustering, which is an approach for clustering discrete‐valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This method is based on finite mixtures of first‐order time‐homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to analyze group membership we present an extension to this approach by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule using a multinomial logit model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of dynamic panel data models with sample selection

We propose a new method for estimating dynamic panel data models with selection. The method uses backward substitution for the lagged dependent variable, which leads to an estimating equation that requires correcting for contemporaneous selection only. The estimator is valid under relatively weak assumptions about errors and permits avoiding the weak instruments problem associated with differencing. We also propose a simple test for selection bias that is based on the addition of a selection term to the first‐difference equation and subsequent testing for significance of this term. The methods are applied to estimating dynamic earnings equations for women. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市商业银行贷款集中度对风险和收益影响的实证分析

本文对29家城市商业银行的面板数据建立变截距固定效应模型,研究发现银行贷款集中度对风险和收益均产生影响：单一最大客户贷款率在不同取值范围内表现出对不良贷款率、资产收益率先降低再提升两种截然不同的影响;最大十个行业贷款比率与不良贷款率、资产收益率之间只表现出简单的线性正相关关系;最大十家客户贷款率、单一行业贷款率与不良贷款率、资产收益率之间没有显著联系。因此,笔者认为,城市商业银行必须适时调整信贷资金在单一与最大十家客户、单一与最大十大行业的合理配置结构（特别关注对单一最大客户贷款率的控制）,在保证经营效益的同时分散金融风险。与最大十大行业的合理配置结构（特别关注对单一最大客户贷款率的控制）,在保证经营效益的同分散金融风险。     

SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW OF TOURISM GROWTH NEXUS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE LITERATURE AND A CONTENT ANALYSIS OF 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL PAPERS

This study performs the first citation-based systematic literature review of the tourism-growth nexus. The citation analysis provides a bird's eye view of this literature, which, in turn, identifies the sources of knowledge in terms of most influential journals, authors, and articles. A detailed content analysis of 100 most influential papers has been generated on the nature of the study, variables used, country of analysis, type of analysis, the methodology, and the direction of causality. In total, 284 papers were found relevant in the Scopus database using a comprehensive list of keywords. The citation analysis reveals that Tourism Management is the leading journal with a total of 2527 citation counts, whereas Tourism Economics is the leading journal with a total of 41 publications on this topic. Juan Gabriel Brida is the most prolific author, whereas Lee and Chang (2008) is recognized as the most influential paper. The content analysis reveals that 58% have applied time series, and 38% have used panel data analysis. Tourism causing growth is the leading result of both time-series and panel studies. International tourism receipts/earnings/expenditure and the number of international tourist arrivals are the most widely used variables to measure tourism.     

Working while enrolled in a university: does it pay?

This study examines how university students' employment decisions affect their labor market success after graduation. The study is based on individual level panel data of Finnish university students from the years 1987–1998. The OLS estimates show that in-school work experience is associated with higher earnings and employment after graduation. However, work months during the enrollment are not exogenously chosen. Average local unemployment rate during enrollment is used as an instrument for work experience acquisition to correct for the endogeneity bias. Comparing graduates with equal times-to-degree, the IV estimates show that work experience increases earnings considerably one year after graduation. The effect is smaller and statistically insignificant in later years. Taking into account that working usually leads to longer times-to-degree, IV estimates show no significant returns to student employment.     

管理股权、会计选择与盈余质量

本文根据异常应计项目框架和修正的Jones模型,以1995—2004年上市公司数据为样本,对上市公司管理股权通过会计选择影响企业的盈余质量进行了分析。实证研究发现,管理股权比例与盈余质量之间呈U型分布,相对集中的管理股权有利于提高盈余质量。     

Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes

We propose and examine a panel data model for isolating the effect of a treatment, taken once at baseline, from outcomes observed over subsequent time periods. In the model, the treatment intake and outcomes are assumed to be correlated, due to unobserved or unmeasured confounders. Intake is partly determined by a set of instrumental variables and the confounding on unobservables is modeled in a flexible way, varying both by time and treatment state. Covariate effects are assumed to be subject-specific and potentially correlated with other covariates. Estimation and inference is by Bayesian methods that are implemented by tuned Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Because our analysis is based on the framework developed by Chib [2004. Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of counterfactuals. Journal of Econometrics, in press], the modeling and estimation does not involve either the unknowable joint distribution of the potential outcomes or the missing counterfactuals. The problem of model choice through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors is also considered. The methods are illustrated in simulation experiments and in an application dealing with the effect of participation in high school athletics on future labor market earnings.     

Evidence on the motivation for management forecasts of corporate earnings

A multivariate model of the process by which managers decide to release public forecasts of their firms' earnings is developed, based on factors that are hypothesized to affect the demand for and the willingness to supply such forecasts. We test the model on data from a comprehensive sample of earnings forecasts, and find support for our hypotheses about the likely joint influence of those factors. Larger firm size, greater leverage, higher and more stable earnings rates and less rapid growth rates are found to be associated with an increased propensity for management to provide earnings forecasts for their firms.