Cluster analysis of cross impact model scenarios

Analysis of outputs of cross impact models often focuses on counts of frequency of occurence of events, and frequency of co-occurence of events, to estimate the probabilities of these events. This paper describes an additional analysis which can be performed on the output of a cross impact model. Individual output scenarios are clustered together on the basis of similarity, utilizing standard techniques of cluster analysis. The resulting clusters of similar scenarios can be viewed as “typical” scenarios and analyzed in terms of how much they differ from the overall average for the complete set of output scenarios. Analysis of the reasons for these differences helps identify critical events and significant relationships among events. The paper discusses the clustering algorithm used and the type of output to be expected.     

Foreign trade,concentration and profitability in open economies

In this article a model is developed which integrates the impact of international factors, such as the degree of foreign competition, exporting opportunities, and multi-national activity with the more traditional elements of market structure in explaining cross industry differentials in price-cost margins in the industrial sector of the European Economic Community. Utilizing a simultaneous estimation procedure we conclude that the foreign factors are an important addition to domestic structural variables in the structure-profitability relationship.     

The income elasticity of household energy demand: a quantile regression analysis

This article examines variation in the income elasticity of household energy demand across the energy expenditure distribution using expenditure data from the five most recent Household Budget Surveys (HBSs) in Ireland: the 1987, 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010 HBS. The analysis uses a two-stage instrumental variable quantile regression approach and is based on each HBS cross section, as well as the overall pooled observations. The estimated elasticities are compared across low- and high-energy-consumption scenarios and to a benchmark elasticity estimated using two-stage least squares. The results provide evidence that there is significant variation in the income elasticities across the energy expenditure distribution and that care must be taken when using the constant mean elasticity for policy purposes. More specifically, any examination of the future impact of a change in income support policy measures on energy consumption should recognize the substantial context-dependent variation in the income elasticity.     

On the distance between cross-impact models: A set of metric measures for cross-impact analysis

This paper attempts to add to the Leibnizian or mathematical side of Technological Forecasting. Given two distinct cross impact models, the paper shows that there exists a set of appropriate metric measures such that the distance between any two cross impact models can be determined. That is, it is possible to say how close or how far apart two or more cross impact models are to one another. It is argued that the ability to make such determinations is vital to the formal and mathematical development and growth of Technological Forecasting.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

Ethical dilemma scenarios and emerging technologies

This paper posits that ethical dilemma scenarios are a useful instrument to provoke policy‐makers and other stakeholders, to including industry, in considering the privacy, ethical, social and other implications of new and emerging technologies. It describes a methodology for constructing and deconstructing such scenarios and provides four such scenarios in an orthogonal relationship with each other. The paper describes some different, but closely related scenario construction–deconstruction methodologies, which formed the basis for the methodology adopted in the European Commission-funded PRESCIENT project. The paper makes the point that in ethical dilemma scenarios, it is not immediately apparent what choices policy‐makers should select. Hence, there is a need for undertaking a privacy and ethical impact assessment and engaging stakeholders in the process to identify and discuss the issues raised in the scenarios.     

Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF EUROPEAN UNION SUGAR PRICE CUTS, ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT, AND DEVELOPMENT AID FOR FIJI

The objective of this paper is to use a set of varied scenarios related to the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and the loss of European Union (EU) sugar preferences (in the form of partial and full price liberalization) in combination with the recently committed EU development aid to examine the impact on Fiji using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. It is shown that without aid, the loss of sugar preferences has devastating impact on real output, exports, rural employment, and other macroeconomic indicators. Without aid, the EPA scenarios, on the other hand, lead to some growth in real output but depress rural employment and non-sugar agricultural exports. Although improvements are observed across the scenarios with aid, it is argued that aid would be more effective if it directly addresses the supply-side constraints in Fiji instead of focusing on the sugar sector. ( JEL C68, D58, F17, O56)     

Trends in the development of information technology and their effects on the production structure in Europe

In this paper, the authors have made an attempt to build a scenario of how technology can have an impact on the Production structure i n Europe, and how these changes will effect the international division of labour. The authors start from the premise that the applications of new product and process technologies are leading to stepwise changes in production structures. They borrow from economic and managerial theories, present a number of scenarios for two types of technologies (biotechnology and information technology). From these scenarios some implications are proposed.     

Financial incentives in the Austrian PAYG-pension system: micro-estimation

The scope of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial incentives on the retirement decision of private sector workers in Austria. How do financial incentives embedded in the Austrian pension system impact individual retirement behavior? We are using a unique dataset of individual social insurance spells. Micro-estimating the impact of financial incentives on the probability of retirement shows that the behavioral response to financial incentives in Austria is relatively large in international comparison. Also, there are striking behavioral differences between men and women. Using the estimates to simulate reform scenarios shows huge behavioral changes as incentives alter.     

Older or Wealthier? The Impact of Age Adjustment on Wealth Inequality*

Differences in individual wealth holdings are widely viewed as a driving force of economic inequality. However, as this finding relies on cross‐sectional data, a concern is that older is confused with wealthier. We propose a new method to adjust for age effects in cross‐sections, which eliminates wealth inequality due to age, yet preserves inequality arising from other factors. Using a new cross‐country comparable database, we examine the impact of age adjustments on wealth inequality across countries and over time. We find that the most widely used method yields a substantially different picture of age‐adjusted wealth inequality than our method.     

Privatization and Performance in Eastern Europe: Alternative Scenarios

The paper focuses on the possible outcomes of privatization and considers how different scenarios of privatization lead to varied macroeconomic performance. Alternative scenarios involve changes in efficiency, taxation, wages, income distribution and interactions with the world economy. The consequences of pursuing different scenarios of privatization are simulated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Illustrative simulations with the model are carried out for a representative economy, intended to depict a country at the outset of transition. The simulation results suggest that privatization can exert a favourable or adverse impact on the whole economy, depending on the way in which the performance of the newly privatized sector changes. The simulation analysis for Poland shows that some developments accompanying privatization processes might have contributed to recession and budget deficit.     

Technological upgrading and energy demand scenarios for Indian railways—A system dynamics study

This paper presents a system dynamics model of the Indian railway system and generates probable scenarios of its performance up to the year 2011. The basic structure of the model, the relationships between the interacting variables, and the generic flow diagrams used for developing the model are discussed in detail. In generating the scenarios, probable changes in the railway system and in the national socioeconomic environment in which it works are considered. In particular, introduction of technological innovations in the railways and their impact on railway energy demand are examined in detail.     

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (i) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (ii) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (iii) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement.     

The simple macroeconomics of an oil-dependent economy

This paper constructs and analyzes a simple macrodynamic model of a small economy that is completely dependent upon OPEC for oil imports. The impact and dynamic behavior of wages, prices, output and exchange rates is analyzed under several alternative scenarios. Initially, it is assumed that oil is denominated in dollars and the consequences of an increase in oil prices are investigated under a system of free floating. In later sections, the effects of this disturbance are re-examined under various kinds of ‘managed float’ systems.     

Scenarios on the future of biotechnology

The major areas of research and development in biotechnology are maturing at a rapid rate, and may soon converge with one another. These emerging biotechnology areas range from the development of new medicines and drugs, genetically engineered foods, biologically controlled industrial manufacturing processes, and biologically based computing devices to the creation of new industrial materials and devices based upon biological structures and the use of biotechnology in food production. Each of these research areas carries the potential for strong societal reaction. To explore the potential impact of biotechnology on society, two fundamental drivers that influence societal acceptance of biotechnology are described. First, the extent to which technological integration proceeds may strongly impact the way society uses and perceives biotechnology. Second, the degree to which the public eventually accepts biotechnologically derived products and processes as legitimate and reliable alternatives to current products may shape both market demand and public policy. Taken together, these drivers suggest four discrete alternative scenarios for the future of biotechnology. Implications of these scenarios are discussed.     

Structuring the future—application of a scenario-generation procedure

Scenario generation is a fundamental technique of futures research. By providing a series of possible future contexts, it is a valuable tool for decision makers. A number of scenario generation procedures have been proposed and may all be appropriate in particular circumstances. These procedures differ in regard to their approach to structure, the nature of the scenario elements used, their handling of the time dimension, their approach to scenario probabilities, the scope or size of the scenarios, and a few other aspects. A number of suggested techniques are classified in regard to these characteristics and a case is described for a procedure that provides for large numbers of events and trends (over 100) in a multiperiod framework and that can produce a fairly small number of the most likely scenarios that contain a reasonable variety. An approach to this problem is described, and an application in the Western Australian Government Railway organization, Westrail, is presented.     

Do data policy restrictions impact the productivity performance of firms and industries?

This paper examines how policies regulating the cross‐border movement and domestic use of electronic data on the internet impact the productivity of firms in sectors relying on electronic data. In doing so, we collect regulatory information on a group of developed economies and create an index that measures the regulatory restrictiveness of each country's data policies. The index is based on observable policy measures that explicitly inhibit the cross‐border movement and domestic use of data. Using cross‐country firm‐level and industry‐level data, we analyse econometrically the extent to which these data regulations over time impact the productivity performance of downstream firms and industries, respectively. We show that stricter data policies have a negative and significant impact on the performance of downstream firms in sectors reliant on electronic data. This adverse effect is stronger for countries with strong technology networks, for servicified firms, and holds for several robustness checks.     

Economic Determinants of Free Trade Agreements Revisited: Distinguishing Sources of Interdependence

One of the most notable international economic events since 1990 has been the enormous increase in the number of free trade agreements (FTAs). While Baier and Bergstrand were the first to show empirically the impact of a country‐pair's economic characteristics on the likelihood of the pair having an FTA, the literature has been extended to demonstrate the importance empirically of FTA “interdependence”—the effect of other FTAs on the probability of a pair having an FTA. In the context of the Baier–Bergstrand framework, this paper delves deeper into the sources of interdependence—an “own‐FTA” effect and a “cross‐FTA” effect. The authors argue that the own‐FTA effect (the impact on the net welfare gains of an FTA between two countries owing to either already having other FTAs) likely dwarfs the cross‐FTA effect (the impact on the net welfare gains of an FTA between the pair owing to other FTAs existing in the rest of the world, or ROW). Augmenting a parsimonious logit model with simple “multilateral FTA” and “ROW FTA” terms to differentiate the own and cross effects empirically, it is shown that the marginal impact on the probability of a country‐pair having an agreement of either country having one more FTA with a third country is 50 times that of one more FTA between another pair in ROW. The results suggest that “domino (own‐FTA) effects” have far exceeded “competitive liberalization (cross‐FTA) effects” in the proliferation of FTAs.     

CROSS SUBSIDIZATION AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR WAGES

ABSTRACT 1 : This study has examined wage determination in the presence of cross‐subsidization of firms in the telecommunications industry. How variations in cross subsidies received, via the separations mechanism used in the industry, influence some firms to pay a greater level of wages is assessed. The firms studied have been almost the entire population of local exchange carriers in the US telecommunications industry between 1995 and 2000. The analysis has established that firms which are able to obtain greater cross‐subsidies, on average, in fact pay higher wages and the elasticity of the relationship is quite high. The study is the first of its kind assessing the relationship between an important regulatory variable that measures a ubiquitous process, such as cross subsidization, and the impact on employee wages.