投资者异质信念、未预期盈余与盈余公告效应研究

文章以2010至2014年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,利用回归分析检验投资者异质信念、未预期盈余与公司盈余公告效应的相关性,研究发现:我国证券市场上存在显著的盈余公告效应,投资者异质信念、未预期盈余是盈余公告效应的重要影响因素。投资者会提前对公司盈余公告信息作出反应,由于对公司盈余信息的获取程度不一、对公司股票的未来走势有不同观点,股票流向愿意出更高价格的乐观的投资者手中,投资者异质信念越大,卖方获得的超额收益越大。随着信息不对称程度的降低,投资者异质信念程度降低,股票价格逐步回归其基本价值,累计超额收益也因此降低。总体上,投资者异质信念对未预期盈余与累计超额收益的关系影响不显著。     

浅析中国股票市场的处置效应

处置效应它是1985年由Shefrin与Statman根据观察到的现象提出.他们发现投资者在买卖股票时往往会选择将亏损股票持在手中,而相反在盈利时倾向于卖出股票,具体表现为当股票价格上涨时,投资者卖出盈余股票,在股票价格下降时反而将股票牢牢持有在手中,最终造成了巨大亏损.Shefrin和Statman便将投资者这种行为倾向称为处置效应.处置效应自从被提出后,多数学者对其进行理论解释与实证检验,成果颇丰.最常用的几种理论解释分别是前景理论、 后悔理论、 均值回归理论、 自我辩解.     

营运能力财务信息的价值相关性分析——来自房地产类上市公司的经验证据

本文以我国2004～2007年房地产类上市公司为样本,分析了营运能力财务信息的价值相关性后发现,营运能力财务信息与股票价格并不存在直接正相关关系,对股票价格的解释力并不显著;营运能力财务信息与会计盈余具有显著正相关关系,并通过影响会计盈余与股票价格具有间接正相关关系。营运能力"较好"的房地产类上市公司会计盈余对股票价格的解释力比营运能力"较差"的房地产类上市公司会计盈余对股票价格的解释力强;营运能力财务信息还通过影响会计账面净资产价值与股票价格具有显著的相关。     

营运能力财务信息的价值相关性分析——来自房地产类上市公司的经验证据

本文以我国2004～2007年房地产类上市公司为样本,分析了．营运能力财务信息的价值相关性后发现,营运能力财务信息与股票价格并不存在直接正相关关系,对股票价格的解释力并不显著;营运能力财务信息与会计盈余具有显著正相关关系,并通过影响会计盈余与股票价格具有间接正相关关系。营运能力“较好”的房地产类上市公司会计盈余对股票价格的解释力比营运能力“较差”的房地产类上市公司会计盈余对股票价格的解释力强;营运能力财务信息还通过影响会计账面净资产价值与股票价格具有显著的相关。     

源于公允价值的盈余波动增加会计信息含量了吗？

盈余波动是企业最重要的盈余时间序列特征之一,公允价值的使用会显著改变企业盈余波动水平。这种盈余波动变化对投资者具有正反两个方面的影响：一方面揭示了企业风险,提供了增量信息;另一方面增加了信息风险,提高了信息不对称程度。使用新会计准则实施前后共12年的数据研究源于公允价值的盈余波动对投资者净信息含量的影响,结果显示：公允价值确实能够导致企业盈余波动程度增加,但增加的盈余波动并没有给投资者提供增量会计信息。需要注意的是,此结论只是针对公允价值所引致的盈余波动信息,并不能推广到公允价值会计整体的信息含量。     

完善我国股票估值分析的探讨

股票价格一般是指股票的市场价格,又被称为股票行价,是指股票在证券市场上买卖的价格;股票价值指一般情况下股票价值日,主要是指股票的内在价值,它是一种理论价值,通常由股份公司基本面所决定,也是它本身所固有的价值。股票投资者根据对股份公司赢利前景、股票市场发展趋势等方面因素的预测、分析,从而对股票未来的收益进行估计,以此来得出股票的价值。     

会计盈余价值相关性研究述评

会计盈余与股票收益相关性的研究大体可以分为两个阶段:单纯的会计盈余与股票价格相关性研究阶段、影响会计盈余价值相关性因素的探讨阶段。文章就这两个阶段对国内外关于会计盈余价值相关性问题的研究成果进行了综述,并分析了现有研究中存在的一些问题,在此基础上针对我国资本市场的现实情况预测了今后的研究趋势。     

盈余信息质量影响股票预期回报的理论分析

会计盈余是股东、债权人及其他利益相关者主要关注的会计信息。而会计信息质量将直接影响资本市场资本配置效率。本文在对西方理论研究文献进行梳理的基础上认为:盈余信息质量通过其对公司基本价值反映的精确性,直接影响股票预期回报;盈余信息质量因在投资者之间的不对称分布,间接影响股票预期回报;区分直接、间接两种不同的作用,对我国资本市场会计信息经济后果的实证研究及更好地发挥会计信息的作用具有重要意义。     

真实盈余管理与我国上市公司股价高估的实证分析

本文考虑到盈余信息对于证券市场投资者的重要性,重点研究了真实盈余管理对于我国上市公司股权价值高估的影响.以上海证券交易所A股上市公司2011-2015年的数据作为研究样本,建立相关模型并利用SPSS软件进行回归分析,最终实证结果表明:我国上市公司在增发股票期间确实存在真实盈余管理的行为,且真实盈余管理程度与股权价值高估程度负相关.     

A股指数波动对投资者交易心理的影响--基于VAR模型的实证分析

股票价格的涨跌对于投资者的交易心理有很大的影响，投资者的交易心理可以用每周参与A股交易的账户数的变化来表示。通过选取2010年-2013年A股周价格指数和每周参与A股交易账户数数据，建立VAR模型，检验模型的稳定性，并分析二者是否具有长期稳定的均衡关系、利用Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应函数分析方法，得出结论：股票市场投资者根据A股价格指数的波动来调整各自的交易频率。受交易心理影响，当A股价格指数上涨时，投资者会增加交易频率，而当A股价格指数下跌时，则减少交易频率。     

Investor co-attention and stock return co-movement: Evidence from China’s A-share stock market

This study attempts to link investor co-attention to stock return co-movement in China's A-share stock market. On the one hand, stock price will co-move for stocks within the same industry and within the same market, which is labelled “return co-movement”. On the other hand, investor attention will also co-move as investors systematically search for relevant information for stocks of similar characteristics or as the stocks experience common information shocks, which is termed “investor co-attention”. The empirical evidence suggests that stock return co-movement can be explained by investor co-attention to a great extent, even after controlling for stock fundamentals and firm characteristics, and this effect is more salient for stocks with lower institutional ownership. Moreover, we employ large national lottery jackpots as exogenous shocks to investor attention. The empirical findings show that the co-movement of both investor attention and stock return increase on large lottery jackpot days, while investor co-attention contributes less to return co-movement on large lottery jackpot days. In summary, we offer an alternative explanation for return co-movement by observing the causal relationship between investor co-attention and stock return co-movement.     

Disclosure quality,price efficiency,and expected returns

Using a composite disclosure quality measure, we examine the effect of disclosure quality on price delay and the effect of price delay determined by disclosure quality on expected returns in the Taiwan stock market. We find that higher disclosure quality can reduce stock price delay through more investor attention and higher stock liquidity after we control for accounting quality variables and consider the endogeneity issue. Furthermore, we show that disclosure quality reduces expected stock returns through the price efficiency channel associated with both investor attention and stock liquidity. Our results indicate that increasing a firm’s standardized information rating by one standard deviation can reduce its expected stock return by 0.63% annually. Taken together, our evidence suggests that regulatory activities enforced to improve public firms’ disclosure quality in the Taiwan stock market can make the stock market more efficient and therefore lower investors’ required return for stocks.     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.     

Limited attention,salient anchor,and the modified MAX effect: Evidence from Taiwan’s stock market

The literature documents that investors overweighing the right-tail probability pursue positively skewed assets, leading to lottery-like stocks overpriced. We find that the lottery anomaly primarily exists among stocks further away from their 52-week high prices. After attention-grabbing events with gambling features, inattentive retail investors become aware of certain stocks’ gambling traits and then net buy more lottery-like stocks, which further promotes the lottery anomaly. However, when such stocks are near their 52-week high price, retail investors tend to place little weight on the likelihood that the stock price will rise beyond the 52-week high, thereby reducing the skewness preference. Overall, our findings suggest that the perception of the 52-week high price as a price ceiling influences skewness preference, and that investor attention is the main determinant of whether anchoring bias affects skewness preference.     

Information asymmetry,sentiment interactions,and asset price

We develop an asset pricing model with sentiment interactions between institutional and individual investors under the condition of information asymmetry. Our model considers private information and investor sentiment, two imperfections in securities markets, and integrates them into a theoretical model to investigate the role of the interaction between information asymmetry and investor sentiment in asset pricing. We show that the joint effect of private information and investor sentiment deviate the price of risky assets and efficiently explains anomalies in the stock market. Investor sentiment changes the effect of information on the equilibrium price relative to a world where all investors are completely rational. Private information changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price in comparison with a scenario with symmetric market information. In addition, the individual investors’ learning and the disclosure of information both allow private information to be better integrated into the price and simultaneously changes the effect of investor sentiment on the equilibrium price.     

不同视角下的盈余管理

文章以财务会计理论的基本问题为起点,对盈余管理存在的普遍性、管理者的行为动因与投资者的市场反应,以及盈余管理对会计信息披露质量进行分析,以期解决运用盈余管理协调会计信息时财务呈报与有效契约之间的矛盾,以满足企业管理者与市场投资者的利益需求。     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

Investor heterogeneity and commonality in stock return and liquidity

This paper examines how the trading activities of different investor types are related to common return and liquidity movements. Using a unique dataset, we decompose the daily return and liquidity of individual stocks into price impact components attributable to trades of institutional investors and retail investors. We then investigate the variation of each component relative to market-wide return and liquidity. We show that institutional trades contribute more than retail trades to liquidity commonality. However, retail trades contribute more strongly to return co-movement. The incremental contribution of retail trades to the co-variability of stock returns is more pronounced for firms with high information asymmetry.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

An Investigation of Stock Price Declines Following Corporate Financing Events: Further Evidence

Prior research documents a large downward drift in stock prices following issuances of debt and equity by US firms. We conduct tests based on both stock price and trading volume to provide evidence on the reasons for this apparent market anomaly. We document evidence of earnings management through accruals prior to external financing and lower operating performance afterward that is associated with the amount of capital raised. The earnings management that precedes external financing and the amount of capital raised are associated with both the post-financing decline in stock price and trading volume around earnings announcements that follow for a period of three years. This evidence is consistent with the proposition that firms raise external capital prior to predictable declines in their operating performance and they release upward biased earnings before these events to manage investor expectations. The failure of many investors to incorporate this information into their trading decisions in a timely manner consistent with limited attention and over-confidence appears to drive stock mispricing. Our evidence does not support the conjecture that the financing anomaly is primarily a statistical artifact or that it is a manifestation of the accrual anomaly.