Estimating Savings and Growth Functions in Developing Economies: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

There is a two-way influence between the savings rate on the one hand and some of its determinants on the other (i.e. a problem of simultaneity exists). This study specifies a general production function to generate a growth rate function, and estimates savings and growth equations simultaneously. A Hausman specification test examines the correct system specification, and determines whether 2SLS or 3SLS is the appropriate estimation technique. The results show that a simultaneous equations model is a better estimation technique (2SLS or 3SLS) than a single equation system (OLS), and that the full-information method (3SLS) provides better estimates than a limited-information method (2SLS). [C30]     

央地财政关系：协调失灵与地方政府财政赤字扩张偏向

文章基于央地财政关系协调失灵导致地方财政赤字扩张偏向的理论假设和现实背景,通过构建一个协调博弈理论模型,运用我国1995-2012年省级空间面板数据模型的GS 2 SLS 和System GMM的回归分析,系统研究了“央地财政关系”对地方政府财政赤字扩张偏向的影响机制。研究发现：我国地方政府存在财政赤字决策的相互模仿行为,中央政府存在通过财政协调机制来协调地方政府的财政决策行为,但并不成功。这意味着我国“央地财政关系”确实存在协调失灵,进而导致地方政府财政赤字持续膨胀的经济现象。     

内部资本市场效率测度指标的实证分析——基于联立方程模型

建立了Tobin′s Q、ROA和APS三个指标的联立方程模型,并分别利用OLS法、2SLS法和3SLS法对联立方程进行回归,并比较了回归结果。在三个指标之间存在内生性的情况下,3SLS法的回归效果优于2SLS法,而2SLS法的回归效果又优于OLS法。研究结果显示:Tobin′s Q、ROA和APS之间存在显著的正相关关系。在三个指标的基础上,采用主成分分析法构造综合指标来衡量内部资本市场效率,并利用股价走势对该综合指标的优劣进行了检验。     

Reservation wage analysis of unemployed youths in Australia

This paper focuses on the analysis and structural estimation of the reservation wage function from a job search model using modified 2SLS and maximum-likelihood procedures with selectivity bias adjustments. The existing structural approaches to estimation are also reviewed. Empirical estimates of the determinants of the reservation wages of unemployed youths in Australia are obtained using data from the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The results support most of the predictions of the job search model and indicate the presence of positive duration dependence in unemployment. These findings differ from the populaly held view of declining probability of escape from unemployment as its duration increases. There is also evidence which suggests that quantity constraints are important in determining unemployment in Australia.     

Endogenous economic freedom and the wealth of nations: evidence from a panel of countries, 1996–2011

Indexes of economic freedom measure the degree to which the policies and institutions of countries are supportive of economic freedom. The authors find a considerable scope for improvement in Index of Economic Freedom, created by Heritage Foundation, since not all components of index have equal effect on economic well-being. Contrary to Heritage methodology the authors tackle the aggregation bias and highlight that each index component contributes differently to the level of economic freedom and subsequently to the level of income per capita. The level of fiscal freedom and monetary freedom exert the strongest influence on the overall index of economic freedom. Authors present the new endogenous cross-country ranking of 135 countries from Instrumental Variable-Two Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) empirical specification which removes the inconsistencies arising from the arbitrary assumption of the equivalent effect of each component on the overall index and, hence, the level of real income per capita.     

Sovereign credit ratings,growth volatility and the global financial crisis

Using monthly data from January 1996 to May 2010 for a panel of 76 developed and emerging economies and adopting an instrumental variable (IV) estimation technique by correcting for both heterogeneity and endogeneity with the generalized two-stage least squares (G2SLS, EC2SLS) procedure method suggested by Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar (1987) and Baltagi and Li (1995), this article provides empirical evidence that volatility of per capita GDP growth is reduced when there are positive changes in credit ratings; in other words when sovereign credit risk improves. To deal with potential simultaneity between sovereign credit ratings and output volatility, a system (3SLS) approach is undertaken, and our findings remain robust. By weakening the volatility dampening effects of ratings changes, it is found that the global financial crisis (GFC) has enhanced macroeconomic volatility. One of the channels via which sovereign rating changes affect growth volatility is the financial markets’ repricing of sovereign default risk that is reflected in sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and its volatility.     

A note on finite sample analysis of misspecification in simultaneous equation models

This article gives an alternative derivation [to that of Hale et al. (1980)] of the effects of misspecification on both OLS and 2SLS estimators.     

Simultaneity in the Study of Exports and Economic Growth

A number of empirical studies have concluded that exports promote economic growth. In each case, a single equation model was estimated by OLS with the magnitude of the export growth coefficient being consistently small, albeit significant. The present study of extensive cross-country data indicates the likelihood of simultaneous determination of exports and economic growth. The rate of growth of exports is then treated as an endogenous variable with the equation estimated by 2SLS in a number of cases in which various plausible combinations are assumed for the system. The 2SLS results generally amplify the earlier findings but tend to show that exports probably play a more important role than was previously indicated. [019, F43]     

金融创新是促进还是阻碍了经济增长——基于技术进步视角的面板分析

金融创新对经济增长的作用方向一直是不明确的,本文旨在解释清楚金融创新影响经济增长的内部机制,并对其进行验证。包括金融创新对微观技术的支持,以及进一步扩展到对宏观经济的影响。通过应用工具变量法对全球的面板数据进行处理,建立以内生经济增长理论模型为基础的计量模型进行实证研究,研究结果表明：在考虑金融创新在经济增长模型中存在内生性的情况下：与金融发展不同,金融创新单独对经济增长的作用方向是不确定的,甚至可能存在显著的抑制作用;而金融创新通过技术进步对经济增长的促进作用是显著的,并且这种作用更多地通过企业的技术进步来体现。     

Analysis of county employment and income growth in Appalachia: a spatial simultaneous-equations approach

County median household income and employment growth rates tend to be characterized by spatial interaction. A spatial simultaneous-equations growth equilibrium model was estimated using GS2SLS and GS3SLS. The results indicate strong feedback simultaneity between employment and median household income growth rates. They also show spatial autoregressive lag simultaneity and spatial cross-regressive lag simultaneity with respect to employment and median household income growth rates, as well as spatial correlation in the error terms. Estimates of structural parameters show strong agglomerative effects and significant conditional convergence with respect to employment growth and median household income growth in Appalachia in the 1990 s.     

Asymptotic standard errors of point elasticities calculated from simultaneous equation systems

An expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix of point elasticities, computed from a simultaneous linear equation system with estimated coefficients, is derived in this paper. Numerical examples are provided using the Klein-I model estimated by 2SLS.     

The small sample properties of several limited information estimators in interdependent structures with scalar and vector autoregressive errors

This study is concerned with an examination of the finite sample behaviour of several limited information estimators in interdependent structures with error terms related over time and in certain specifications across equations. The Monte Carlo or simulation approach is adopted and applied to computationally manageable structures containing lagged dependent variables. The analysis of the Monte Carlo experiments is formulated in terms of estimating response functions, the dependent variables of which are the first two moments of target model estimators. In addition to the impact of simultaneity, autocorrelation and lagged dependent variables on the estimators, evidence is also accumulated on the small sample effects of misspecification in terms of the faulty inclusion and deletion of regressors. The results of the experiments revealed the substantial impact which autocorrelation can have on ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) in terms of efficiency loss. Averaging over all the coefficients in the models, estimators which take account of both autocorrelation and simultaneity had a relative efficiency factor of about 1.5 to 1.9. Many of the parameters in the Monte Carlo model (including misspecification errors, multicollinearity) had qualitatively the same effect on bias and dispersion properties of the estimators.     

Some consequences of viewing LIML as an iterated Aitken estimator

This note demonstrates that LIML can be formulated as Zellner's SUR estimator. The result provides an analytic formula for LIML and its derived reduced form estimator, expresses LIML as the sum of 2SLS and a correction factor and facilities exogeneity testing.     

Instrumental variable estimation of a spatial autoregressive panel model with random effects

This paper extends the instrumental variable estimators of Kelejian and Prucha (1998) and Lee (2003) proposed for the cross-sectional spatial autoregressive model to the random effects spatial autoregressive panel data model. It also suggests an extension of the Baltagi (1981) error component 2SLS estimator to this spatial panel model.     

货币薪酬能激励高管承担风险吗

有关“风险承担”（risk taking）的研究是近年来特别是全球金融危机背景下财务学研究的热点问题之一。本文研究结果表明：（1）货币薪酬激励的增加能提升高管承担风险的水平;（2）最终控制人性质和公司成长性会影响两者之间的关系,在国有企业以及公司成长性较低的公司,货币薪酬激励与风险承担之间的正相关关系较弱;（3）风险承担水平的提高能促进公司绩效的提升;（4）进一步研究发现,风险承担在高管薪酬激励与企业绩效之间发挥中介效用作用。这些结论在采用两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）和三阶段最小二乘法（3SLS）处理内生性问题等稳健性测试后依然成立。因此,本文从“风险承担”这一新的视角深化了有关高管薪酬激励降低代理问题并提升公司绩效的研究,也为中国上市公司尤其是国有上市公司高管薪酬契约设计的有效性提供了借鉴和参考价值。     

Market power versus efficiency under uncertainty: conventional versus Islamic banking in the GCC

In this article we estimate the effect of concentration on intermediation margins in Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) Islamic and conventional banking under the assumption that margins are uncertain. The empirical model, which we formally derive from an expected utility maximization problem, allows us to test for risk aversion as well as competitive conduct in loan and the deposit markets. The model also yields an expression showing that the effect of concentration on margins is the sum of its respective effects on market power, marginal cost of intermediation and marginal cost of uncertainty. The expression allows us to test whether concentration is welfare enhancing, reducing or neutral. We find Islamic banks to be risk-averse and conventional banks to be risk-neutral. We also find that concentration is welfare-neutral in Islamic loans and deposits, welfare-enhancing in conventional loans and welfare-neutral in conventional deposits. We used Nonlinear Two-Stage Least Squares (N2SLS) and Nonlinear Three-Stage Least Squares (N3SLS) to check for robustness.     

What Drives Entrepreneurship in Digital Economy? Evidence from China

Using data collected in the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we study the impact of mobile payment on the likelihood of household entrepreneurship. In the empirical analysis, we use two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression to address the endogeneity of mobile payment. The study finds that mobile payment significantly increases the likelihood of household entrepreneurship. The mechanism could be that the mobile payment: 1) makes users more risk seeking; 2) enriches social networks; 3) provides an additional lending channel.     

Regional wages and market potential in the enlarged EU: an empirical investigation

This article empirically analyses the link between market potential and regional wages in the enlarged EU. We contribute to the existing literature in several ways: (1) we analyse the link between market potential and wages for the EU27 and (2) deconstruct total market potential into several geographical components and analyse their respective contributions to explaining the geographical wage structure. We correct for existing spatial autocorrelation and endogeneity by using an instrumental variable generalized spatial two-stage least squares (IV GS2SLS).     

THE EFFECT OF WELFARE ASSET RULES ON AUTO OWNERSHIP,EMPLOYMENT, AND WELFARE PARTICIPATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS

This paper investigates how asset tests for welfare eligibility affect auto ownership, employment, and welfare participation for single mothers without a college degree. We combine longitudinal data from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation with data on state‐level welfare program rules from the Urban Institute and data on state‐level controls to test whether these single mothers were more likely to (1) own a car, (2) be employed, and (3) be off of welfare, depending on the welfare asset rules instituted in their state. We find evidence that, taken as a group, the asset rules have a statistically significant effect on the probability of car ownership. Ordinary least squares results and cross‐sectional two‐stage least squares (2SLS) results using the asset rules to instrument for car ownership show a large, positive, statistically significant effect of car ownership on employment. However, in 2SLS models controlling for prior car ownership and prior employment, the asset instruments are weaker and we do not find an effect of car ownership on employment. Of significance for policy makers, we find that the asset rules do not have a statistically significant joint effect on welfare participation, even after addressing possible endogeneity. (JEL I38, J68, J08)