Uncertain outlays in time-to-build problems

In this paper we analyze investment projects in which there is uncertainty in the total investment cost in addition to uncertainty in the completed project value. We deal with an uncertain time-to-build. Uncertainties in investment cost are quite common in long-term, large-scale, path-breaking undertakings such as some R&D projects. We find that the inclusion of uncertainty in investment cost tends to mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty of completed project value. The implications of the results are significant. First, when uncertainty of investment cost is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment will result; and second, the existence of uncertainty in investment cost will cause long-term projects to require larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment should occur.     

Corporate R&D and firm efficiency: evidence from Europe’s top R&D investors

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of corporate research and development (R&D) activities on firm performance, measured by labour productivity. To this end, the stochastic frontier technique is used on a unique unbalanced longitudinal dataset comprising top European R&D investors over the period 2000–2005. In this framework, this study quantifies technical inefficiency of individual firms. From a policy perspective, the results of this study suggest that if the aim is to leverage firms’ productivity, the emphasis should be put on supporting corporate R&D in high-tech sectors and, to some extent, in medium-tech sectors. On the other hand, corporate R&D in the low-tech sector is found to have a minor effect in explaining productivity. Instead, encouraging investment in fixed assets appears important for the productivity of low-tech industries. Hence, the allocation of support for corporate R&D seems to be as important as its overall increase and an ‘erga omnes’ approach across all sectors appears inappropriate. However, with regard to technical efficiency, R&D intensity is found to be a pivotal factor in explaining firm efficiency and this turns out to be true for all industries.     

Optimal regulation of technical progress in natural monopolies with asymmetric information

The focus of this paper is to characterize regulatory mechanisms for natural monopolies to provide for optimal technical progress when information is asymmetric. We model a Bayesian-Nash game where the monopolist has private knowledge of the cost-reducing effects of R&D investment to generate process innovations. In the first case, a price-regulated, profit-maximizing firm whose R&D level is unobservable sets its R&D level efficiently to maximize profits at the output level chosen by the firm. However, the level of technical progress achieved by the firm in this case is too high from the regulator's point of view since, in the second-best regulated solution of interest, the regulator has to provide for the R&D expenditures, assumed sunk, as well as for information rents transferred to the firm. In a second case, it can be shown that if the regulator can observe and set limits on the firm's investment in R&D, social welfare is improved, even though the regulated investment level is no longer efficient at the output level chosen by the firm. The reason for the welfare improvement is that losses in consumer surplus due to a decrease in output and an increase in the price are offset by a decrease in information rents and R&D costs transferred, causing the social costs of public funds to fall. Received: 31 July 1994 / Accepted: 15 January 1999     

A performance-oriented risk management framework for innovative R&D projects

Uncertainty is one of the major inherent difficulties in developing innovative products, due to their highly dynamic markets and technologies. The presence of a large degree of uncertainty leads to high R&D risks, resulting in many R&D failures. Therefore, it is important to manage R&D risks through all R&D stages to improve R&D project success rates. This paper proposes a new risk management framework that aligns project risk management with corporate strategy and a performance measurement system to increase success rates of R&D projects and to accomplish corporate strategic goals. The balanced scorecard is used to identify major performance measures of an R&D organization based on the firm vision and strategy. Quality function deployment is adapted to transform organizational performance measures into project performance measures and a systematic procedure is developed for risk identification, assessment, response planning, and control. The proposed risk management framework enables an R&D project to be focused on achieving the corporate goals and provides a more effective way to identify, assess, analyze, and monitor R&D risks along the project cycle. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a drug development project.     

Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags,Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth

The search for an appropriate methodology to investigate the relation between R&D investment, knowledge stock and productivity growth is the main purpose of the paper. In analogy with physical assets, we present a model of knowledge capital formation which allows the calculation of the relevant user cost, as well. The proposed model accumulates R&D investment based on a stochastic gestation lag and a geometric depreciation of the stock. The basic parameters underlying the lag structure differ according to the types of research expenditure. The approach is applied to public R&D investment in Italian agriculture; the results provide interesting information about the economic structure of public research effort in Italian agriculture and plausible estimates of its internal rate of return.     

The R&D Investment–Uncertainty Relationship: Do Strategic Rivalry and Firm Size Matter?

This paper uses a real options perspective to augment a standard research and development (R&D) investment model and implement a firm‐level empirical analysis to assess the practical significance of market uncertainty and its interactions with strategic rivalry and firm size. We use a measure of firm‐relevant market uncertainty along with panel data and find that firms invest less in current R&D as uncertainty about market returns increases. The effect of firm‐specific uncertainty on R&D investment is smaller in markets where strategic rivalry is likely to be more intense. Furthermore, holding access to financing constant, the effect of uncertainty on R&D investment is attenuated for large firms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.     

Real options game models of R&D competition between asymmetric firms with spillovers

Using real options game models, we consider the characterization of strategic equilibria associated with an asymmetric Research and Development (R&D) race between an incumbent firm and an entrant firm in the development of a new innovative product under market and technological uncertainties. The random arrival time of the discovery of the patent protected innovative product is modeled as a Poisson process. Input spillovers on the R&D effort are modeled by the change in the leader’s hazard rate of success of innovation upon the follower’s entry into the R&D race. Asymmetry between the two competing firms include sunk costs of investment, stochastic revenue flow rates generated from the product, and hazard rates of arrival of success of R&D efforts of the two firms. Under asymmetric duopoly, we obtain the complete characterization of the three types of Markov perfect equilibria (sequential leader–follower, preemption and simultaneous entry) of the firms’ optimal R&D entry decisions with respect to various sets of model parameters. Our model shows that under positive input spillover, preemptive equilibrium does not occur in the R&D race due to the presence of dominant second mover advantage. The two firms choose optimally to enter simultaneously if the sunk cost asymmetry is relatively small; otherwise, sequential equilibrium would occur. When the initial hazard rate is low relative to the level of input spillover, simultaneous entry would occur as an optimal decision, signifying another scenario of dominant second mover advantage. On the other hand, when the initial hazard rate is sufficiently high so that the first mover advantage becomes more significant, simultaneous equilibrium does not occur even under high level of positive input spillover.     

Dynamic Spatial Monopoly with Product Development

Abstract

The optimal R&D investment in product innovation of a profit-seeking monopolist is characterized vs that of a social planner in a spatial market with transportation disutility, under full market coverage. It is shown that the planner's incentive to innovate is always weaker than the monopolist's, since the planner trades off the minimization of the social cost of transportation against the cost of R&D.     

On robust asymmetric equilibria in asymmetric R&;D-driven growth economies

In R&D-driven growth models with asymmetric fundamentals, the steady-state equilibrium R&D investments are industry-specific, and they are such that R&D returns are equalized across industries. Return equalization, however, makes investors indifferent as to where to target research and, hence, the problem of allocation of R&D investments across industries is indeterminate. Agents’ indifference creates an ambiguous investment scenario. We assume that agents hold “ambiguous” beliefs on the per-industry profitability of their R&D investments. Investors’ aversion towards ambiguity eliminates the indeterminacy of the investment problem. In particular, the asymmetric return-equalizing equilibrium is robust against a however small degree of investors’ ambiguity aversion.     

The R&;D and productivity relationship of Korean listed firms

This study analyzes the relationship between R&D investment and the productivity of Korean R&D-engaged firms. An interdependent chain of equations including the propensity to invest, R&D investment and productivity are estimated in a multi-step procedure accounting for selectivity and simultaneity biases. Using Korean firm level panel data of listed firms from 1986 to 2002, we find four main empirical results. First, there is a two-way causal relationship between R&D investment and productivity for Korean listed firms. Second, Chaebol firms were associated with lower R&D growth as well as lower labor productivity growth in comparison to non-Chaebol firms. Third, there was a substantial reduction in growth rates both in R&D investment and labor productivity in 1997-1998, immediately following the Asian financial crisis. Fourth, considering the positive feedback effect from productivity growth to R&D growth, a decrease in R&D investment growth after the Asian financial crisis should have been harmful by further decreasing productivity growth.     

Coordination in global R&D organizations: An examination of the role of subsidiary mandate and modular product architectures in dispersed R&D organizations

International research and development (R&D) operations require a significant amount of coordination between the headquarters and the subsidiaries in order to integrate the dispersed activities in one final product. This article explores what mechanisms multinational companies (MNCs) use to coordinate their overseas R&D units. Based on a multiple case study involving nine MNCs with overseas R&D subsidiaries of varying mandates, we find that R&D sites with high technology and/or market orientation tend to be coordinated by informal mechanisms while sites with little technology and/or market orientation tend to be coordinated by formal mechanisms. Furthermore, it appears that this relationship is strongly affected by the product’s architecture: while rather complex R&D activities are conducted at the systems level and at sites with high technology orientation, less complex R&D activities are conducted at the component level at sites with low technology and market orientation. Finally, the findings suggest that modular product architectures have a coordinating effect in global R&D activities which have the power to lower firms’ overall coordination effort. The findings bear important implications for the effective coordination of MNCs’ international R&D subsidiaries.     

对一类市场需求垄断厂商R&D投资决策的实物期权分析

本文运用实物期权方法,研究了面临不确定性市场需求的垄断性厂商投资决策,得到了投资决策点边界条件,并且发现市场垄断程度高,厂商将会延迟投资。     

Technology ladders and R&D in dynamic Cournot markets

Motivated by dramatic and unpredictable technological advances in energy production (for instance drilling and extraction of shale oil), we extend Cournot models of competition to incorporate research and development (R&D) that can lead to (stochastic) drops in production costs. Our model combines features of patent racing with dynamic market structure, capturing the interplay between the immediate competition in terms of production rates and the long-term competition in R&D. The resulting Markov Nash equilibrium is found from a sequence of one-step static games arising between R&D successes, and several numerical examples and extensive analysis of the emerging comparative statics are presented. Analyzing the relationship between current market dominance and the level of R&D investments, we find that market leaders tend to invest more, which in some sense makes oligopoly dynamically unstable. We show that anticipated market transitions have long-term impact; for example the potential of future monopoly can spur R&D investment now, even if the firm is presently uncompetitive and not actively producing. We also show that, surprisingly, random innovations have an ambiguous effect on R&D. This feature, which is driven by the Cournot framework, contrasts with the common situation whereby uncertainty lowers innovation and delays R&D investments. Finally, we demonstrate that increased competition may actually increase efforts to innovate through higher desire to achieve dominance. This would match the anecdotal evidence that the threat of market entrants forces incumbents to maintain high R&D.     

Family management,family succession,and R&D investment: An empirical study

Using data from the statements issued by A-share family firms listed on Chinese stock markets between 2008 and 2019, this paper explores the impacts of family management and family succession on R&D investment. We draw on the perspective of restricted and extended socioemotional wealth and differentiate exploitative R&D and explorative R&D in a detailed study. The study finds that the proportion of family members among board members or senior executives and the kinship of the CEO or chair of the board of directors have different effects on R&D investment, indicating that a diversity exists in how family members identify their role within the company. Furthermore, the participation of the controller’s children in the enterprise can promote explorative R&D investment instead of exploitative R&D, but only during the process of intergenerational succession. The findings differ from prior research in calling attention to the facts that the impact of family management is not always homogeneous owing to the dispersion of family members into different positions, and it can be misleading to conclude that R&D investment is more conservative in family businesses without considering the structure of R&D investment.

     

Industry evolution and R&D externalities

R&D externalities can imply ranges of aggregate increasing returns to scale in R&D. As a consequence several equilibria can exist involving different numbers of firms and different R&D investment levels. In a theoretical model the equilibrium dynamics are analyzed, showing that cyclical fluctuations of the number of firms and R&D investment may be expected, and that the long-run equilibrium is highly sensitive to investors' initial beliefs. The model is tested empirically using a unique database comprising competing firms in various R&D races.     

Mining external R&D

Open Innovation presses the case for timely and thorough intelligence concerning research and development activities conducted outside one’s organization. To take advantage of this wealth of R&D, one needs to establish a systematic “tech mining” process. We propose a 5-stage framework that extends literature review into research profiling and pattern recognition to answer posed technology management questions. Ultimately one can even discover new knowledge by screening research databases.Once one determines the value in mining external R&D, tough issues remain to be overcome. Technology management has developed a culture that relies more on intuition than on evidence. Changing that culture and implementing effective technical intelligence capabilities is worth the effort. P&G's reported gains in innovation call attention to the huge payoff potential.     

R&D and aggregate fluctuations

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959–2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

In search of alliance-level relational capabilities: Balancing innovation value creation and appropriability in R&D alliances

In order to advance our knowledge of alliance-level relational capabilities, this paper investigates how searching across different knowledge domains affects both innovation value creation and appropriability in R&D alliances. Focusing on the alliance level of analysis, we advance that, in R&D strategic alliances, search span has a curvilinear (inverted U-shape) relationship with value creation and a positive relationship with value appropriability. Our analysis on a sample of 1515 interfirm dyadic R&D alliances confirms these hypotheses. We find that, after a threshold level of search span, joint value creation decreases. Conversely, the allied firms’ ability to appropriate the value of their jointly developed inventions grows exponentially as the alliance search span increases. Thus, value creation and appropriability may have conflicting exigencies. We argue that firms involved in R&D strategic alliances should develop the interorganizational relational capability to jointly manage the process of search that occurs at the interorganizational level, and specifically the span of their search, in ways that balance the needs of value creation and appropriability.