A welfare measure of consumer vulnerability to rising prices of food imports in the UAE

The recent and expected continuing rise in food prices has re-ignited concern and discussion in the United Arab Emirates about the country’s vulnerability to food supply shocks. Defining vulnerability as the compensating variation relative to household income, we find that although UAE households in the lowest income quintile spend on food on average less than a quarter of what households in the highest income quintile spend, the former are 3.5 times more vulnerable to rising prices of food imports than the latter.     

The dynamics of livelihood diversification in post-famine Ethiopia

Based on data for almost 300 households this paper explores associations among income diversification, household perceptions of livelihood risks, and changes in consumption outcomes across two points in time in post-famine Ethiopia. Four key questions are addressed: i) To what extent did households emerging from the famine period with relatively higher income and calorie consumption levels also have a more diversified income base?; ii) Was higher income diversification in 1989 associated with higher income and consumption levels by 1994?; iii) Which households increased their share of income from non-cropping activities most during the inter-survey years?; and iv) Did household heads perceive a lack of non-farm income activities to be an important risk factor in famine vulnerability? We find that wealthier households tended to have more diversified income streams; those initially more diversified subsequently experienced a relatively greater increase in both income and calorie intake; households with a greater concentration of assets were more likely to fall in their relative outcome ranking (as were female-headed households); and, initially less diversified households subsequently realized greater gains in income diversification. We also find suggestive evidence that personal perceptions of risk factors guided subsequent diversification decisions.     

Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity

This paper develops a Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index (VFII). Currently, there is no standard indicator of vulnerability analysis in food security research, and this paper responds to this challenge. The primary objective in this paper is to demonstrate how to develop a potential indicator and establish its validity through comparison with other traditional food security indicators, such as per capita calorie consumption (PCC), food consumption score (FCS) and the coping strategy index (CPI). Structurally, Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index is a multidimensional index of the probability of covariate shock occurring (exposure), the accumulative experience of food insecurity (sensitivity) and coping ability of households (adaptive capacity). The paper applies the index to households in southern Nigeria, using the World Bank’s generalised household panel dataset. The results show 61% of households in the study to be highly vulnerable to food insecurity, 12% mildly vulnerable and 27% not vulnerable. Traditional and single indicators, such as FCS and PCC are not good indicators of vulnerability to food insecurity whereas CPI is a better indicator of vulnerability to food insecurity compared to FCS and PCC. The VFII developed in this paper includes components of FCS, PCC, and CPI and regarding ranking, the VFII was found to be reliable. Most importantly, the analysis using the VFII reveals how dietary diversity or calorie consumption indicators can exclude some households who are vulnerable to food insecurity. The paper concluded that accurately target long-term support to vulnerable households, policymakers who seek to address the underlying causes of food insecurity cannot rely on single indicators, and for this type of goal, the VFII makes a useful contribution.     

Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.     

Household income,women’s income share and food calorie intake in South Western Nigeria

Current debates on the nature of intra-household preferences and resource control raises the question of how intra-household redistribution of income from men and women compares with increasing total household income as strategies for increasing calorie intake among low income households. I estimate calorie-income and calorie-women’s income share elasticities for a random sample of low income households from the rural areas of south western Nigeria. I find that calorie-income elasticity is positive and small, 0.194, but four times as large as calorie-women’s income share elasticity, suggesting that calorie intake is affected more by total disposable income than by its distribution pattern. Second, I find a small and negative effect of women’s income share on per caput calorie intake, −0.04, which is a rejection of the hypothesis that increases in women’s share of income will increase calorie intake and suggests that intra-household income re-distribution from men to women may not be an effective policy for increasing food calorie intake among households in the study area.     

Alternative food-security indicators: revisiting the frequency and severity of `coping strategies'

Recent research on the multi-factorial nature of food security has provided a wealth of analytical insight, but measurement problems remain a major challenge, not only for research, but particularly for targeting, program management, monitoring and evaluation. Building on an approach suggested in a 1996 article, this paper constructs a series of alternative food-security indicators based on the frequency and severity of consumption-related coping strategies. These alternative indicators are then compared with more standard measures, including a consumption benchmark, a poverty benchmark and a nutritional benchmark using data from the 1997 Accra Urban Food and Nutrition Study. Against these more traditional indicators, the coping strategy indicators are best at ruling out cases—that is, minimizing the risk of classifying a food-insecure household as food-secure. They also help to identify sources of vulnerability and the trade-offs made with other basic needs to acquire sufficient food. The measures outlined here are much less time-consuming and less expensive in terms of data collection and analysis, and therefore perhaps offer a pragmatic alternative to food and livelihood program managers. However, the comparative analysis of conventional benchmarks with the coping strategies indicator reveals some shortcomings with the benchmark indicators as well—a sign that perhaps the indicators of food security proposed here are both alternative and complementary measures.     

Coming to terms with vulnerability: a critique of the food security definition

This paper seeks to improve the practice of vulnerability assessment for food security purposes by addressing long-standing issues that have hampered the development of both theory and methods. In food security contexts, vulnerability is usually defined in relation to an outcome, such as hunger, food insecurity or famine. This precludes employing the concept for the more specific task of evaluating the susceptibility of a population to explicitly-identified exogenous events or shocks that could lead to these outcomes. This lack of specificity has clouded interpretation of causal factors of food insecurity and famine. Alternatively, in a widely-applied framework for disaster risk assessment, the concept of vulnerability serves the more specific purpose of identifying characteristics of population groups or other elements that make them more or less susceptible to experiencing damage when exposed to particular hazards or shocks. Risks of negative outcomes are created by the combination of hazards and vulnerability, and vulnerability is defined by its relation to hazards rather than directly in relation to the outcomes themselves. The result has been an easier and more transparent translation of concepts into practice. That this latter formulation can also be applied in the food security context is illustrated through an analysis of food security risks in Tanzania. The analysis identifies economic alternatives households can exercise to meet their minimum annual food requirements. Exogenous threats or shocks that can suppress or eliminate particular alternatives exercised by different groups are identified as a means of assessing households' vulnerability and consequently their risks of becoming food insecure, or falling below the minimum threshold.     

The tribal digital divide: Extent and Explanations

This paper documents home Internet access, types of Internet access, connection speeds, and prices for basic home Internet in tribal areas of the United States. We find that the share of households with Internet access is 21 percentage points lower in tribal areas than in neighboring non-tribal areas. When compared to these non-tribal areas, download speeds, whether measured using fixed or mobile broadband networks, are approximately 75% slower in tribal areas, while the lowest price for basic Internet services in tribal areas is 11% higher. Regression techniques reveal that traditional cost factors such as terrain and population density fully explain the price gap but account for only a fraction of the tribal differences in Internet access and connection speeds. Income differences are strong predictors of Internet access but do not affect connection speeds. A sizable amount of the variation in the access and home connection gap between tribal and non-tribal is left unexplained. We conclude with a discussion of how federal broadband programs have penetrated Indian Country, how tribal-specific factors are related to the variation in Internet access within Indian Country, and the potential policy implications of our findings.     

Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia

This paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007–2008 food price crisis using panel data on 1400 households from rural Ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis, in 1994–1995, 1997, and 2004, and after food prices spiked, in 2009. It investigates whether female-headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock, and whether female-headed households experiencing a shock are more (or less) likely to adopt certain coping strategies, controlling for individual, household, and community characteristics. Our findings suggest that female-headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007–2008. Because female-headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male-headed households, they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general. A combination of short-term measures to protect diet diversity and micronutrient consumption of vulnerable groups and longer-term measures to promote investment in sustainable agriculture, such as strengthening women’s property rights, may increase the ability of poor and vulnerable households to cope better with food price increases.     

Assessing the effectiveness of a technical assistance program: The case of maize seed relief to vulnerable households in Zimbabwe

The recent economic downturn in Zimbabwe impoverished the majority of households. To assist vulnerable rural households improve their food security, the British Department for International Development implemented a seed relief program from 2003/2004 to 2005/2006 that emphasized recycling of maize open pollinated varieties (OPV). Using data collected from 597 households in six districts in 2006, this study assesses the effectiveness of the program in terms of its targeting of beneficiaries, the flow of information from participating NGOs to beneficiaries on the need to recycle the seeds, and the level of recycling done at the end of the program. The empirical results suggest that the targeting method participating NGOs use inadvertently excludes relatively vulnerable households while including large proportions of relatively well-endowed households in the program. The choice of varieties to distribute is guided more by the ecological adaptability of available commercial seeds and less by preferences of beneficiaries. Notwithstanding the fact that seed selection information is critical in encouraging beneficiaries to recycle distributed seed, not all of them received it. In conclusion, it may be stated that the program undoubtedly contributed to increased food productivity by vulnerable households but its overall effectiveness could have been enhanced through (i) the involvement of the beneficiaries in the choice of types of seed to be distributed, (ii) better targeting of beneficiaries, and (iii) improved information flow between NGOs and beneficiaries.     

Food aid targeting in Ethiopia: A study of who needs it and who gets it

The need for systematic, empirical analysis of food aid targeting and impacts is overwhelming, especially given the large numbers of people concerned and volume of funds allocated to the problem of feeding Ethiopia's food insecure. This research examines the efficiency of food aid targeting in rural Ethiopia based on empirical evidence from a nationally representative survey of 4166 farm households.A key finding of the study is that there is no significant association between household food insecurity (vulnerability) and food aid receipts—a result of high errors of exclusion and inclusion at both the wereda and household levels. Four factors are identified as causes of the high level of targeting error: (1) the primary beneficiaries of food aid programs are found to be households at the extremes in terms of food availability: those with the least and those with the most food available; (2) a disproportionate number of female and aged heads of households received food aid, irrespective of their food needs; (3) an inability of the food aid system to reach households outside of the historically deficit areas; and (4) a disproportionate concentration of food aid in the region of Tigray.     

Commuting with Lost Housing Services as the Opportunity Cost

In American metropolitan areas, households are highly mixed by income with higher average incomes at greater distances from downtown. Also, suburbs attract families with children, while poor households and small households with young heads select sites close to the commercial core. These empirical observations and others are predicted by this standard model of a monocentric city with three major modifications. Time at work is controlled by employers, not employees. Households with more members at home consume in the same house more housing services. Finally, lot prices need not be proportional to area. In the resulting equilibrium, households are mixed by income and separated by family size. This contrasts with classic urban models where households are separated only by their workers' wage rates.     

The broadband digital divide and the economic benefits of mobile broadband for rural areas

Broadband is becoming increasingly important to national economies and the personal lives of users. However, broadband availability and adoption are not diffusing in rural and urban areas at the same rates. This article updates the rural broadband digital divide, with special attention paid to mobility. Empirical estimations of broadband provision and usage in the US show that rural areas have fewer high-speed fixed and mobile providers but more slower-speed fixed providers than urban areas. While rural availability of mobile broadband is lower than in urban areas, it still helps fill in gaps in fixed broadband coverage in rural areas. The rural gap in fixed broadband usage remains, but the mobile broadband usage gap disappears after controlling for household demographics. The raw broadband usage gaps between rural and urban households are proportionally greater for low-income households. The potential for mobile broadband to benefit rural areas through economic development is also examined.     

Romania’s accession to the EU: Short-term welfare effects on food consumers

This paper focuses on estimation of the welfare effects on different Romanian households of assumed food price changes as a result of EU accession. Using the Slutsky compensating variation approach, results suggest that these changes affect welfare differently for various categories of households. Although on average the welfare loss is 2.6%, a higher impact is estimated for low-income groups. However, the relatively high share of home-produced consumption of food diminishes these impacts, in particular for rural households, and somewhat smaller monetary amounts would be required if compensation is paid.     

How much of the labor in African agriculture is provided by women?

The contribution of women to labor in African agriculture is regularly quoted in the range of 60–80%. Using individual, plot-level labor input data from nationally representative household surveys across six Sub-Saharan African countries, this study estimates the average female labor share in crop production at 40%. It is slightly above 50% in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda, and substantially lower in Nigeria (37%), Ethiopia (29%), and Niger (24%). There are no systematic differences across crops and activities, but female labor shares tend to be higher in households where women own a larger share of the land and when they are more educated. Controlling for the gender and knowledge profile of the respondents does not meaningfully change the predicted female labor shares. The findings question prevailing assertions regarding substantial gains in aggregate crop output as a result of increasing female agricultural productivity.     

Impact of commuting by workers on household dietary diversity in rural India

Drawing insights from the literature on transformation of rural non-farm employment, pathways from agriculture to nutrition, and linkages between migration and nutritional status of household, we seek to understand differences in dietary diversity across three mutually exclusive types of rural Indian households: where all members work in rural areas, at least one member commutes to urban areas, at least one member has no fixed place of work. Our analysis is based on a nationally representative data set from India for the year 2009–10 and we use propensity score matching methods. We find that as compared to households with no commuters, households with rural–urban commuters have higher dietary diversity; whereas households with no fixed place workers have lower dietary diversity. We also find differences in dietary diversity across households which differ by their primary source of income.     

Fixed-to-mobile substitution in the European Union

This paper analyzes substitution between access to fixed-line and mobile telephony in the European Union using cross-section panel data on households’ choices of telecommunications technologies in years 2005–2010. We estimate a structural model of household?s demand for access to: (i) fixed-line only; (ii) mobile only; and (iii) both fixed-line and mobile. We find that growing Internet usage increases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households, which suggests that households keep their fixed-line connection to access Internet. However, the spread of 3G and cable broadband access decreases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households and increases the share of ‘mobile only’ households. Hence, fixed-to-mobile substitution was slowed down by the spread of Internet but it may continue with the spread of mobile broadband. Furthermore, bundling of telecommunications services increases the share of ‘fixed + mobile’ households and decreases the shares of ‘mobile only’ and ‘fixed only’ households. Therefore, operators which can bundle fixed-line connection with Internet or mobile services may slow down fixed-to-mobile substitution.     

Local food prices and the purchasing power of SNAP benefits

While the nominal value of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits is fixed across states (except for Hawaii and Alaska), variation in food prices across the U.S. is dramatic. We provide new evidence describing geographic variation in the purchasing power of SNAP benefits, measured by the extent to which SNAP-recipient households are able to afford the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) food plan on which legislated SNAP benefit levels are based. For more than one-quarter of SNAP households, SNAP benefits are too low to cover the cost of the TFP at the primary stores where they report shopping. SNAP purchasing power increases somewhat as we assume households can travel farther to shop and increases much more with the assumed ability to identify and travel to the lowest-cost store in a given area. It is unlikely, however, that SNAP households are sufficiently informed and mobile to shop at the lowest-cost store in a large (e.g., 10 to 20-mile) geographic area. We demonstrate that aggregate dollar shortfalls for SNAP households who cannot afford the TFP could be completely eliminated by redistributing from households in low-cost areas to those in high-cost areas, e.g., by indexing SNAP benefits to local food prices.     

How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China

The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this article, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan‐to‐value ratio has a significant impact on households’ consumption. The article offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households, and will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

Catching-up Crisis and Industrial Upgrading: Evolutionary Aspects of Technological Learning in Korea's Electronics Industry

This paper address a puzzle: How is it possible that a country that has established a broad, export-oriented industrial base at record speed, remain vulnerable to the vicissitudes of international finance and currency markets? We argue that the Korean model that was tremendously successful for catching-up has now reached its limits. The focus is on the role of technological learning for development of the electronics industry, a main carrier of Korean's successful late industrialization. It is shown that a heavy reliance on credit and an extremely unbalanced industry structure have given rise to a narrow knowledge base, and a sticky pattern of specialization. Catching-up has focused on capacity and international market share expansion for homogenous, mass-produced products; very little upgrading has occurred into higher-end and rapidly growing market segments for differentiated products and services. Such truncated upgrading is one important reason for Korea's vulnerability to the financial and currency crisis.