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1.
A representative family model with indivisible labor and employment lotteries has no labor market frictions and complete markets. Nevertheless, its aggregate responses to an increase in government supplied unemployment insurance (UI) and to an increase in microeconomic turbulence are qualitatively similar to those in two macromodels with labor market frictions and incomplete markets, namely, the matching and search-island models in Ljungqvist and Sargent [2007a. Understanding European unemployment with matching and search-island models. Journal of Monetary Economics, this issue]. Because there is no frictional unemployment in the representative family model, an increase in employment protection (EP) decreases aggregate work because the representative family substitutes leisure for work, an effect opposite to what occurs in matching and search-island models. Heterogeneity among workers highlights the economy-wide coordination in labor supply and consumption sharing that employment lotteries and complete markets achieve in the representative family model. A high disutility of labor makes generous UI cause very low employment levels.  相似文献   

2.
Higher wages all else equal translate into higher inflation. More rigid wages imply a weaker response of inflation to shocks. This view of the wage channel is deeply entrenched in central banks’ views and models of their economies. In this paper, we present a model with equilibrium unemployment which has three distinctive properties. First, using a search and matching model with right-to-manage wage bargaining a proper wage channel obtains. Second, accounting for fixed costs associated with maintaining an existing job greatly magnifies profit fluctuations for any given degree of wage fluctuations, which allows the model to reproduce the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle. And third, the model implies a reasonable elasticity of steady state unemployment with respect to changes in benefits. The calibration of the model implies low profits, but does not require a small gap between the value of working and the value of unemployment for the worker.  相似文献   

3.
In a business cycle model that incorporates a standard matching framework, employment increases in response to news shocks, even though the wealth effect associated with the increase in expected productivity reduces labor force participation. The reason is that the matching friction induces entrepreneurs to increase investment in new projects and vacancies early. If there is underinvestment in new projects in the competitive equilibrium, then the efficiency gains associated with an increase in employment make it possible that consumption, employment, output, as well as the investment in new and existing projects jointly increase long before the actual increase in productivity materializes. If there is no underinvestment, then investment in existing projects decreases, but total investment, consumption, employment, and output still jointly increase.  相似文献   

4.
We use panel data to examine the empirical determinants of the reservation wage- in particular the influence of previous wages- and consider what this implies for the evolution of the natural rate of unemployment. We find that previous wages have a significant but relatively small effect on reservation wages (an elasticity between 0.15 and 0.47). We also find considerable differences across genders with previous wages being more important for men and market wages being more important for women. Overall our results suggest that the reservation wage will adjust quite quickly to shocks.  相似文献   

5.
The natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time-varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression. For post-War US data, the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates, with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate, as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation. These movements, in turn, can be related to variables associated with labor-market search theory, including unemployment benefits, labor productivity, real wages, and sectoral shifts in the labor market. There is also a strong negative relationship between inflation and the corresponding measure of cyclical unemployment, supporting the existence of a short-run Phillips curve.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the optimal retirement of an individual in the presence of involuntary unemployment risks and borrowing constraints in a complete market with frictions. We use an intensity model and loading factors to illustrate the involuntary unemployment risks and frictions in unemployment insurance markets. Using reasonably calibrated parameters, we observe that high involuntary unemployment intensity and loading factors could be important explanations for the empirical findings emphasized in recent studies. We also find that an individual with high leisure demand after retirement reduces consumption during retirement and increases stockholdings as retirement time approaches.  相似文献   

7.
The persistence of high-unemployment rates in Europe has fueled theories advocating the existence of multiple natural rates of unemployment. Labor-market institutions and increasing returns to scale have been singled out as the main causes of multiplicity and, therefore, of high-unemployment traps. The contribution of this paper is both to expand the set of mechanisms leading to multiple natural rates of unemployment and to establish a minimum set of assumptions under which such multiplicity may arise. To this aim, a search-matching model is presented where households allocate time to market and non-market activities, and invest both in physical and human capital. It is shown that under the standard assumption of concavity in production and matching such a model yields multiple long-run equilibria with different rates of unemployment. This result does not rely on labor-market institutions or increasing returns to scale. Multiplicity in our model arises from differences in the intensity of use of human capital across time-consuming activities.  相似文献   

8.
We develop an equilibrium matching model where unions have an important institutional presence. Monopolistic competition characterizes the goods market, where only some sectors are unionized. Thus, the model can vary the coverage of collective bargaining. It can vary the degree of coordination between unions, and alternatively consider “national” and “sectorial” unions. Calibration to the union premium implies a workers’ rent extraction parameter much lower than assumed in the matching literature. We introduce unemployment insurance to study the interactions of policies with unions and find that unions only push for more generous benefits if this does not entail higher payroll taxes.  相似文献   

9.
We assess the inter-temporal relationship between bank efficiency, capital and risk in a sample of European commercial banks employing several definitions of efficiency, risk and capital and using the Granger-causality methodology in a panel data framework. Our results suggest that lower bank efficiency with respect to costs and revenues Granger-causes higher bank risk and that increases in bank capital precede cost efficiency improvements. We also find that more efficient banks eventually become better capitalized and that higher capital levels tend to have a positive effect on efficiency levels. These results are generally confirmed by a series of robustness tests. The results have potentially important implications for bank prudential supervision and underline the importance of attaining long-term efficiency gains to support financial stability objectives.  相似文献   

10.
Traditional New Keynesian models prescribe that optimal monetary policy should aim at price stability. In the absence of a labor market frictions, the monetary authority faces no unemployment/inflation trade-off. The design of optimal monetary policy is analyzed here for a framework with sticky prices and matching frictions in the labor market. Optimal policy features deviations from price stability in response to both productivity and government expenditure shocks. When the Hosios [1990. On the efficiency of matching and related models of search and unemployment. Review of Economic Studies 57 (2), 279-298] condition is not met, search externalities make the flexible price allocation unfeasible. Optimal deviations from price stability increase with workers’ bargaining power, as firms incentives to post vacancies fall and unemployment fluctuates above the Pareto efficient one.  相似文献   

11.
A monopsony model with a symmetric equilibrium is developed where posting higher wages reduces employee departures. This monopsony implies that wage changes have small effects on profits so that employer altruism affects wages as well. Even selfish firms act altruistically if workers punish firms that fail to do so. If the marginal utility of income falls sharply with income, the model can explain modest responses of wages to shifts in labor demand. If there are fluctuations in the altruism required by workers, the low correlation of wages and employment and the sizes of the cyclical fluctuations in these two series can be rationalized.  相似文献   

12.
13.
At the business cycle frequency, energy prices and the skill premium display a strong, negative correlation. This fact is robust to different de-trending procedures. Identifying exogenous shocks to oil prices using the Hoover-Perez [1994. Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of ‘Does monetary policy matter?’ in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Econonmics 34, 47-73] dates, shows that the skill premium falls in response to such a shock. The estimation of the parameters of an aggregate technology that uses, among other inputs, energy and heterogeneous skills, demonstrates that capital-skill and capital-energy complementarity are responsible for this correlation. As energy prices rise, the use of capital decreases and the demand for unskilled labor—relative to skilled labor—increases, lowering the skill premium.  相似文献   

14.
We develop a model of decentralized monetary exchange to examine the distributional effects of inflation across heterogeneous agents. The agents have private information about their productivity, preferences, or money holdings. Matching is multilateral and each seller is visited by a stochastic number of buyers. The good is allocated according to a second-price auction in money. In equilibrium, homogeneous buyers hold different amounts of money leading to price dispersion. We find the closed-form solution for the distribution of money holdings. Entry of sellers is suboptimal except at the Friedman rule. Inflation acts as a regressive tax.  相似文献   

15.
This paper extends an otherwise standard New Keynesian (NK) model to allow for the presence of large wage setters. Building on monetary models from an earlier generation, I contribute to the NK literature by adding some new insight. It is shown that once the presence of large wage setters is taken into account, the degree of wage setting centralization and the aggressiveness of the central bank in stabilizing inflation jointly affect steady state employment. Because of this interaction, the benefits associated with inflation stabilization increase in the centralization of the wage bargaining process.  相似文献   

16.
This paper introduces regime switching into level-ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance how the regime switching is specified. The estimated level parameters differ across countries. The corresponding new bivariate models show that the states of the US and UK short rate volatilities are not independent nor identical. There is Granger causality from the US to the UK short rate volatility state but not vice versa. There is no contagion between the US and UK volatility states. Equivalent results apply to the relation between the US and German volatility states.  相似文献   

17.
The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1% and 7% of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains results from a reduction in individual consumption volatility.  相似文献   

18.
This paper develops a model that integrates inventory and labor decisions. We extend a model of inventory behavior to include a detailed specification of the role of labor input in the production process, distinguishing between employment, hours and effort per worker. We estimate jointly the Euler equations for inventories and employment, a labor compensation schedule, and an hours requirement function with the cross-equation restrictions imposed. The econometric results shed light on several important topics, including the shape of the marginal cost of output, the role of labor hoarding as an explanation of pro-cyclical productivity, and the persistence of inventory stocks.  相似文献   

19.
We develop a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the model generates counterfactual labor market dynamics. In particular, it fails to generate the negative correlation between vacancies and unemployment in the data, i.e., the Beveridge curve. Introducing real wage rigidity leads to a negative correlation, and increases the magnitude of labor market flows to more realistic values. However, inflation dynamics are only weakly affected by real wage rigidity. The reason is that labor market frictions give rise to long-run employment relationships. The measure of real marginal costs that is relevant for inflation in the Phillips curve contains a present value component that varies independently of the real wage.  相似文献   

20.
During the past 15 years Japan has experienced unprecedented, high unemployment rates and low (often negative) inflation rates. This research shows that these outcomes were predictable as part of a stable, readily recognized Phillips curve.  相似文献   

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