中国的贸易、境外直接投资与实际汇率的动态关系分析

本文基于向量自回归模型对中国的贸易收支、FDI与实际汇率三者之间的动态关系进行了分析，实证结果显示，三者之间长期存在互为因果的关系。长期来看FDI对贸易余额有一定的改善作用，人民币实际贬值的J曲线效应明显，贬值改善贸易余额的时滞大约为两年。出口空间的大小不是影响FDI的主要因素，实际汇率的稳定有利于吸引FDI。贸易收支的顺差和FDI的大量流入是人民币升值压力的重要来源，人民币的升值在一定时期内不会恶化我国的贸易收支，但会对FDI的流入产生一定的负面影响。     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

欧元汇率变动对中欧贸易收支平衡影响实证研究

随着中欧之间日益紧密的贸易关系,欧元对人民币汇率的变动对中欧贸易收支的影响越来越显著.为了定量的分析两者之间的关系,采用Johansen协整检验方法等实证分析方法来分析欧元自进入流通领域以来其汇率对中欧贸易收支的影响.实证结果表明人民币兑欧元实际汇率的升值将缩小中国对欧盟的贸易盈余.同时,通过检验贸易收支对实际汇率波动的动态反应发现,中国欧元区双边贸易对欧元兑人民币汇率的反应表现出"J 曲线"效应.     

人民币实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品贸易影响的实证分析

汇率被认为是影响对外贸易重要的宏观变量。本文采用协整分析方法探讨人民币汇率改革以来的实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品进出口的影响。实证分析结果表明,汇率与机电产品进出口贸易额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但对进口的影响作用更大;马歇尔．勒纳条件成立,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电产品进出口贸易的影响存在J曲线效应。     

人民币实际汇率的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应

改革开放以来,我国经济发展迅速。在同一期间,人民币汇率在大部分时间内却呈现出贬值趋势。根据巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应理论,人民币实际汇率在我国经济高速增长时应相应地升值。然而现实情况与理论是不一致的。文章使用协整检验考察人民币实际汇率与我国经济发展水平的关系。主要结论是：人民币实际汇率不具有巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应,我国经济发展水平在现阶段与人民币实际汇率没有长期均衡关系。根本原因是中国可贸易品部门劳动生产率的提高没有导致物价水平的提高,因而不符合巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的传导机制。     

人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响

本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。     

人民币汇率不是造成中美贸易不平衡的主因

外交部发言人秦刚3月18日表示，人民币汇率不是造成中美贸易不平衡的主要原因。中国出口到美国的许多产品，现在已经是美国不生产的。如果中国不出口这些产品，其他国家同样也会填补这块市场份额。秦刚强调，中国不刻意追求贸易顺差。我们主张促进双边贸易发展并达到双边贸易总体平衡，这有赖于双方共同努力。中国为此做出了积极的努力，     

人民币贬值的原因及影响

自2014年以来,人民币汇率一反前几年稳步上升的趋势,出现了人民币贬值的情况,打破了很多人对人民币将继续升值的预期。人民币的贬值不仅对国内经济造成了冲击,也对整个国际经济造成了一定的影响。引起人民币贬值的主要因素有中国经济的总体放缓、中央银行的主动引导及美国主动退出量化宽松政策等。由人民币贬值带来的影响有利有弊,人民币贬值有助于出口贸易的发展、拉动就业、刺激国内消费、有利于推动汇率市场化进程等;同时也会造成人民生活水平下降、资本外流、中国企业债务的偿兑成本上升、房地产市场危机等种种问题。我们应正确认识人民币贬值,发现其背后存在的经济问题,积极应对其造成的不良影响。     

论我国对外贸易、经济增长与人民币实际汇率间的动态均衡关系

本文对我国人民币实际汇率、进出口贸易和经济增长三者之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果显示,长期内三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系;短期内实际汇率对进出口贸易有单向的促进作用,但是与经济增长的因果关系不明显,而经济增长与进出口贸易之间具有显著的双向因果关系。     

论我国对外贸易、经济增长与人民币实际汇率间的动态均衡关系

本文对我国人民币实际汇率、进出口贸易和经济增长三者之间的关系进行了实证分析.实证结果显示.长期内三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系;短期内实际汇率对进出口贸易有单向的促进作用,但是与经济增长的因果关系不明显,而经济增长与进出口贸易之间具有显著的双向因果关系.     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Incumplimiento del salario mínimo en Europa central y oriental

En este estudio se analiza el incumplimiento del salario mínimo durante el periodo 2003–2012 en diez países de Europa central y oriental con salario mínimo obligatorio nacional. A partir de los datos de EU‐SILC y la metodología propuesta por Bhorat, Kanbur y Mayet (2013), se cuantifica la incidencia y magnitud del incumplimiento. Se realizan análisis de regresión sobre determinantes individuales, laborales y macroeconómicos. Aunque la incidencia permanece relativamente baja, los trabajadores a los que se dirigen las políticas de salario mínimo parecen los más expuestos a su incumplimiento. Con el tiempo, una mayor incidencia se asocia a una razón más alta entre salario mínimo y salario medio.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Ansätze und Ergebnisse anglo-amerikanischer M&A-Forschung

Based on a review of established U.S. management journals (1995–2003), six schools of thought are identified within the Anglo-American M&;A research: “Capital Market”, “Principal/Agent”, “Industrial Organization”, “Organizational Behavior”, “Human Resources” and “Strategic Management”. The literature review shows that the definition of M&;A success, the methods applied, and insights from empirical research differ according to the respective school of thought. Empirical studies focus on the resource combinations of merger partners, the specific circumstances of merger negotiations, and on integration management as antecedents of merger performance. Unfortunately, empirical findings have not yet provided reliable explanations for M&;A success. Based on the current state of Anglo-American M&;A research, the authors discuss implications for business practice, identify research gaps, and propose areas for future research.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

Cultural Economy Planning in Creative Cities: Discourse and Practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.     

Introduction of New Technology with a Sound Transition of the Input-Output Structure

We examine the general equilibrium repercussions associated with the introduction of new technologies, using the generalized Leontief system that allows technological substitutions. We show that an untested introduction of cost-increasing technologies in any industry may result in creating a non-productive technological structure that does not satisfy the Hawkins-Simon condition, following the autonomous dynamic adjustment process with structural transitions in the economic system. Therefore, we propose a practicable control scheme of introducing cost-increasing technologies that strictly avoids the creation of non-productive structures in all periods of structural transition, using the available information on the ex ante technological structure.     

Input/output ranges and performance: an examination of US machine tool producers

Despite the establishment of high-tech multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Ireland since the late 1950s, the country did not succeed in closing the technological gap with most of its EU counterparts. The weak National System of Innovation (NSI), and in particular low business and government R&D levels, combined with a lack of research and technology linkages between MNEs and indigenous firms, explain these poor results. However, the Shannon region in the West of the country presents some specific institutional characteristics that could theoretically make the region a strong technological enclave. The various actors in the region - i.e. the administrative, financial, political and research institutions, as well as the business organizations - have indeed infused a new type of economic development. After a brief review of the available concepts and models articulated around these actors and their interrelationships, the paper analyses whether the Shannon region, taken as an illustrative example, mirrors a specific economic and technological localized setting. The study is based on a survey of indigenous and foreign firms.