中国的资本存量与投资效率

本文通过吸收资本存量（K）研究的已有成果,改进了K估算中经济折旧率为常数的假定,采用时变经济折旧率重新估算了1952～2010 年全国的资本存量。我们发现,以本文测算的时变经济折旧代替以往常用的固定折旧率,同时采用永续盘存法的原始公式代替常用的简化公式,有助于提高K估值的准确性。在此基础上,本文估算了宏观资本回报率,与多数文献所认为的宏观资本回报率具有长期下降趋势不同,我们发现1978~2007年中国宏观资本回报率呈长期上升趋势。     

省际第三产业资本存量：框架、检验及动态轨迹

研究目标：省际第三产业资本存量的估算、检验及动态轨迹分析。研究方法：运用永续盘存法非传统途径估算总资本存量K、净资本存量Kn、生产性资本存量KP，采用重心法考察第三产业资本存量的空间分布特征。研究发现：K、Kn是反映资产价格财富的价值指标，KP是反映资产生产能力和服务效率的物量指标。相较K、Kn，使用KP作为资本投入指标，能反映固定资产的生产能力和资本投入状况。自1978年以来，我国第三产业资本投入持续增长且呈现以东部为核心的态势，资本分布的区域不均衡状况没有根本改变。研究创新：从理论内涵和估算方法上比较分析K、Kn、KP三者并进行检验。研究价值：有助于中国第三产业资本估算与国际接轨、成为国际核算案例的一部分并更好地参与讨论。     

中国资本存量K的再估算：1952～2006年

本文通过比较现有资本存量的研究文献吸取了有益的内容,同时扬弃了部分不合理的估算假定和前后不一致的推算方法,重新构建了资本存量估算中的四个核心指标,尤其是对基期资本存量和折旧率的确定进行了细致的推算。本文还根据国家统计局最近基于经济普查和年度修正的最新数据资料,利用永续盘存法估算了1952～2006年全国和省际的资本存量,从而为后续的许多相关研究提供了更为准确的基础数据。     

中国R&D资本存量测算：1952~2014年

2008年SNA修订了R&D支出的核算方法,R&D支出不再视为中间消耗,而是作为固定资本形成处理。本文依据2008年SNA和我国R&D统计调查数据等,科学测算了1952年以来每年R&D活动所形成的资产价值,同时对R&D资产进口和出口进行了适当调整。然后,在合理选取和估计R&D资产折旧率、R&D价格指数和基年R&D资本存量的基础上,根据永续盘存法对我国1952~2014年R&D资本存量进行了测算。结果显示,我国R&D投资与R&D内部经费支出的年平均比例为95.5%,我国R&D资本存量总体上呈快速增长趋势,2014年达到42244亿元,且R&D资本存量与GDP之比呈“N”形趋势,经历了先上升后下降再上升的过程。     

我国服务业资本存量地区差异及其成因——基于空间经济学的实证分析

资本存量对经济增长具有特别意义,因此服务业资本存量的估算工作受到了广泛关注。但由于受估算数据的制约,鲜有第三产业资本存量估算的文献。本文运用PLA方法对分地区的第三产业资本存量进行了估算,并采用Moran指数测算了第三产业资本存量空间分布机理。研究发现:自1978年以来我国服务业资本存量增长迅速,但分布不均衡且呈现明显的空间集聚特点。     

重点行业资本配置扭曲对中国全要素生产率的影响

本文基于线性规划，建立重点行业间的资本要素优化模型，通过估算各重点行业的资本存量、劳动力人力资本及其产出弹性，得到各行业优化后的资本配置量和总产出，最后运用基于Fre-Primont指数的DEA方法测算各行业资本配置优化前后全要素生产率的变化。研究发现：重点行业间资本投入过度与资本投入不足现象并存，其中房地产业、交通运输仓储和邮政业以及水利环境和公共设施管理业资本要素投入过度，批发和零售业、制造业以及建筑业资本投入不足；矫正各行业资本要素配置扭曲后行业总产出和全要素生产率明显增大；矫正资本要素配置扭曲可以通过提高剩余混合效率进而提高全要素生产率效率，最终实现提高全要素生产率。     

基于十大分类的中国资本存量重估：1978~2016年

研究目标：根据最新的统计数据测算我国的资本存量。研究方法：根据我国1978~2016年的相关数据,利用永续盘存法进行测算。研究发现：本文的测算的资本存量要略小于现有文献的结果;我国的资本产出比正处于快速上升阶段。研究创新：使用最新统计数据将资本构成进一步细化为十个大类,分别考虑了每类资本的初始资本存量、折旧率、资本形成额和价格指数,计算得到1978~2016年各类资本存量;在应用几何折旧法时,将折旧率拆解为固定折旧率与可变折旧率两部分,其中可变折旧率与经济增长率正相关,更加贴近实际情况。研究价值：在对已有研究进行深入分析的基础上,采用更为精细的方法和更贴近现实的假设,应用最新的数据,重新估算中国资本存量,得出的研究结果相比过去的研究更加可靠。研究结果对今后的基础研究具有重要借鉴意义。     

会计准则变革的非效率投资治理效应研究——基于逆向选择与道德风险的视角

外部资本定价扭曲与监督不足是导致企业非效率投资的诱因,我国会计准则的国际趋同能否通过信息环境的改善实现对企业非效率投资的治理是亟待研究的重要课题。选取2003—2011年我国上市公司数据,通过Richardson模型和FHP模型的综合使用,将样本分成“逆向选择和投资不足”以及“道德风险和投资过度”两种情况,观察我国会计准则国际趋同对两种企业非效率投资的治理效果。研究发现我国上市公司同时存在投资不足与投资过度现象且两种现象下均存在投资现金流敏感性,会计准则趋同后投资现金流敏感性显著下降。研究证实会计准则变革可以通过改善定价扭曲和逆向选择来缓解投资不足,通过改善监督不足和道德风险来抑制投资过度。     

结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率

构建了一个结构型时变弹性生产函数,将劳动投入结构、资本投入结构和人力资本结构纳入经济增长分析框架,运用1997-2012的省级面板数据估计了这一时期要素产出弹性的动态特征,并估算出中国潜在经济增长率的变化。研究结果表明：近年来潜在增长率下降,主要由资本存量增速下降所导致,但人力资本结构升级减缓了这一趋势。近10年来实际增长率变化主要是受潜在增长率变化影响,2010年以来的经济增速减缓,是由于潜在增长率下降导致,未来政策重心应当从需求管理过度到供给管理,着力开发经济增长的潜力,保证经济增长的可持续性。     

投资困局成因有三

中国经济景气监测中心的一份研究报告认为，2003年特别是今年前几个月，出现部分行业投资过度扩张、农业等行业投资不足现象的主要原因有三，一是国有经济的投资膨胀，二是地方政府投资冲动，三是长期城乡二元经济结构以及第一产业与第二、第三产业间的结构失衡。     

Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags,Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth

The search for an appropriate methodology to investigate the relation between R&D investment, knowledge stock and productivity growth is the main purpose of the paper. In analogy with physical assets, we present a model of knowledge capital formation which allows the calculation of the relevant user cost, as well. The proposed model accumulates R&D investment based on a stochastic gestation lag and a geometric depreciation of the stock. The basic parameters underlying the lag structure differ according to the types of research expenditure. The approach is applied to public R&D investment in Italian agriculture; the results provide interesting information about the economic structure of public research effort in Italian agriculture and plausible estimates of its internal rate of return.     

全球化背景下中国行业间工资增长差异的演变及其原因

借助非竞争型投入产出模型,从国民经济投入产出系统的角度分析1987~2007年全球化背景下中国行业工资增长的差异及其原因。研究表明,1987~2007年我国资本密集型产业、劳动密集型产业、服务业的行业人均工资增长表现出极大的差异性。究其原因,在不同阶段国内消费、投资、出口、技术进步等因素对行业工资的不同拉动效应,是导致近年来中国行业间工资增长差异迅速扩大的重要原因。行业层面的结果分解表明,1997年以后驱动我国各行业人均工资增长的动力来源发生了根本变化,出口对我国第二产业、劳动密集型产业行业工资增长的贡献显著上升,而国内消费和国内投资对第一、三产业、资本密集型产业以及垄断性行业工资增长的贡献显著上升。     

Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries

This paper investigates the effects of health human capital on the growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. Using an expanded Solow growth model, panel data, and a dynamic panel estimator, we find that the growth rate of per capita income is strongly and positively influenced by the stock of, and investment in, health human capital after controlling for other variables. The stock of health human capital affects the growth rate of per capita income in a quadratic way: the growth impact of health human capital decreases at relatively large endowments of health stock. Our estimates suggest that 22% and 30% of the transition growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries respectively, can be attributed to health. The structure of the relationship between health human capital and the growth rate of income in Sub-Saharan African countries is similar to the structure of the relationship in OECD countries. This implies that increased stocks of health human capital leads to higher steady state income. Our results have interesting policy implications.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a short-run production model: Theory and an empiral application

In order to be consistent with production theory, empirical factor demand analyses must transform capital stock data into information about the flows of capital services derived from the stock. This requires information about the utilization rate which is, however, not generally available. This paper develops and estimates a model of a capital using firm that one can implement using observable data. Capital utilization and depreciation are endogenous and are determined by profit maximization. The consistency of the model with the data is tested by checking whether the estimated parameters satisfy the regularity conditions imposed by the theory. The validity of the customary specification of an exogenous, price-independent rate of depreciation is also tested.     

投资信息审计意见可以提高公司投资效率吗？——基于公司内部治理环境的调节效应

通过手工整理2013—2015年审计报告中的投资事项增量信息,研究审计意见中投资事项增量信息(投资信息审计意见)与公司投资效率之间的关系。结果表明,投资信息审计意见具有缓解投资过度的正面作用,但也具有加剧投资不足的负面作用;内部治理环境具有调节效应,当内部治理环境较好时(代理成本较低、管理层权力较小),投资信息审计意见的正面作用得到提升,负面作用受到抑制。进一步进行中介效应检验发现,内部监督在投资信息审计意见缓解投资过度的过程中起到了中介效应,表明促进股东加强内部监督是投资信息审计意见发挥作用的重要途径。研究结论表明审计意见中与投资事项相关的增量信息具有额外价值。     

The impact of the employee-organization relationship on temporary employees' performance and attitude: testing a Singaporean sample

Following the framework proposed by Tsui et al . (1997), this research paper examines the impact of the employee-organization relationship on temporary employees' job performance, turnover intention, overall job satisfaction, affective commitment, perception of fairness and perception of work options. Data were collected from 191 temporary employees from seven employment agencies in Singapore. Analyses conducted revealed that employee responses do vary under the four types of relationship (quasi-spot contract, under-investment, mutual investment and over-investment). In general, both mutual investment and over-investment relationships were associated with higher levels of performance and more favourable attitudes than either the under-investment or quasi-spot contract. Specifically, temporary employees under the mutual investment and over-investment relationships have better job performance, a higher level of affective commitment to the agency, improved overall job satisfaction, higher perception of fairness, higher perception of work options and lower turnover intentions. Furthermore, these finding were obtained even after controlling for the effects of company tenure and job level on employee performance and attitudes. The results highlight the importance of employee-organization relationships in eliciting the desired temporary employee outcomes. Practical implications were drawn for human resource practitioners and employment agencies on how best to manage temporary employees. Some limitations and suggestions for future research were discussed.     

会计稳健性与资本投资效率的实证研究

选取2001年-2008年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,检验会计稳健性与公司资本投资效率之间的关系,进而考察会计稳健性的治理价值.实证研究发现,会计稳健性与资本投资无效率水平以及投资过度(不足)都显著负相关,这对我国上市公司而言,会计稳健性水平有助于缓解经理人与股东之间的代理冲突、降低投资者面临的信息不对称、抑制公司的过度投资或投资不足行为,进而改善公司的资本投资效率.     

The role of fixed capital depreciations for TFP growth: evidence from firm level panel data estimates

The role of accounting depreciation rates and the stocks of fixed capital has been well established in the literature. By exploring available evidence on the value of fixed assets in certain countries, this paper makes use of firm level data on fixed capital depreciations over the period 1990–2008 from a group of OECD countries along with panel data estimations to investigate their role for total factor productivity (TFP) as it is defined through growth accounting, since different capital depreciation profiles imply different rates of capital accumulation and, therefore, different estimates of TFP. The empirical results indicate a positive relationship between the two variables under study.     

Investment and employment in manufacturing in U.S. metropolitan areas 1960–1976

This paper develops a simple vintage model of the relation between investment and employment in manufacturing. Parameters of the model are estimated using time series data for the US taken from the Surveys and Censuses of Manufactures conducted from 1954–1976. The results indicate that the age of the manufacturing capital stock was increasing in most major metropolitan areas during this period. Due to capital aging, the nature of technological change, and the pattern of depreciation, the amount of annual investment per worker required to sustain employment in manufacturing rose substantially. The dispersion of growth rates across areas also increased.