Future of Turkey-EU relations: a civilisational discourse

Should or can Turkey join the European Union (EU)? This paper argues that there are three alternative scenarios of the EU decision to grant membership to Turkey: ‘privileged relationship offer,’ ‘wait and see attitude,’ and ‘start of full membership negotiations.’ It then gauges each alternative path, and argues that the most likely scenario is a decision to start the negotiations, followed by the scenario of ‘wait and see.’ The EU decision will be conditioned by its future vision of global governance and the role foreseen for Turkey inside, outside or at the margin of it. The paper concludes that the EU decision will have significant implications for the future of relations between Europe and Turkey on the one hand, and Europe and the Islamic world on the other.     

The question mark over coal: Pollution,politics, and CO2

There is a growing concern about the effect of fossil-fuel burning, and the consequent increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in the atmosphere. This increasing concentration is now well-documented, and although the evidence of actual or potential climate changes is not conclusive, the growth in energy consumption magnifies the importance of the possible dangers. This article highlights two aspects of the issue. The CO₂ increase will be mainly produced by coal. And whereas the increase in atmospheric CO₂ is now being imposed upon the world principally by the USA, the USSR, and Western Europe, the developing countries will probably be important contributors by early in the next century. Using world energy resource estimates and projections of the global production of CO₂ from fossil-fuel burning in the year 2025, the authors argue that it will be difficult to achieve an international consensus and commitment to deal with the issue. This is because of the relationship between economic growth, industrialisation, and the production of CO₂, and because of the distribution of the beneficial and harmful effects of any climatic change.     

Financial reporting transformation: the experience of Turkey

From the viewpoint of a developing country which is in need of foreign capital and foreign investments to finance its economic growth, the need for high quality financial information has vital importance. The need for IFRS in Turkey was brought up by the same reasons as a developing country and as an emerging market. With the internationalization of capital markets and the increased volume of international investments, companies functioning in Turkey needed to provide high quality financial information to access financial resources. Furthermore, internationally accepted and reliable financial information is also needed for the overseas customers of the domestic companies. Another reason facilitating the need for IFRS is Turkey's candidation for European Union membership.This paper attempts to explain the development process of accounting standards around the world and its practical results in a developing country: Turkey. Within this context, brief information is given about the structure of International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), and adoption process of IFRS in Turkey. During this adoption process, Turkey encounters several complications such as complex structure of the international standards, potential knowledge shortfalls, and difficulties in application and enforcement issues. This paper explores these difficulties and shares the Turkish experience from a viewpoint of a regulator and an academician, and discusses the proper and consistent way implementing a “Principle Based” IFRS in Turkey.     

Worlds in collision: Is a rational energy policy possible for Western Europe?

The image of worlds in collision is apt as the overlay to any discussion of energy policy in Western Europe. It is suggested here that there are several rationalities or managing strategies that people choose to use to deal effectively or cope with the world around them. Of the five basic paradigms, three play an active role in the social conflict over energy policy. Two of these are nearly diametrically opposed in that what one ‘sees’ as the problem, the other ‘sees’ as the solution. A bridging group provides an institutional framework so the opposing two can co-exist. From acceptance of these different realities as valid and necessary to near- as well as long-term human interests, a policy approach is suggested. It is addressed primarily to this bridging group, and is designed to limit or remove the blocking role played by one of the other active groups.     

Europe's slums

This article is a personal view of current East European evolutions. The author proposes a vision of a split Europe and depicts the historical processes tracing out new frontiers across the continent. The features of the future European slums represent the extrapolation of some characteristics of the Romanian situation and of its difficulties of reintegrating into Western civilization. To the extent that this same situation is specific to the other ex-socialist states in the Balkan peninsula, they will share the common destiny of a separate development counter to Central and Western Europe, being pushed to the periphery of European civilization. The author's intention is to trigger the world through presenting a dystopia of a community doomed to live in the servants' quarters of the future European house.     

World civilisations at crossroads: Towards an expansionist or a sustainable future—Lessons from history

Like may periods of the past, the future will be characterised by resource scarcities, with limited pollution sink capacities constituting a new constraint. The strategic choices discussed in the West today resemble quite closely the strategies developed in Europe during past centuries to deal with resource scarcities: to overcome them by means of market mechanisms leading to efficiency improvements and substitution, by global trade enhancing resource availability, or by forcefully seizing foreign resources. In order to learn lessons for the future, these strategies are discussed regarding their past performance and their present applicability. They face severe limits regarding their problem solving capabilities, either because they are structurally unsuitable as a response to global economic and environmental scarcity problems, or their success is too questionable to rely on it. Consequently, another strategy is needed to adapt human economies and societies to the limits of Planet Earth. Sustainable development is such a strategy, developed in Europe in the 18th century to deal with absolute scarcities; its roots help to understand its current relevance. In a globally interconnected world it cannot be operationalised top-down, but is dependent on cooperation to become effective. Sustainability strategies cannot be designed as one-size-fits-all solutions, but are civilisation specific. This in turn requires an international institutional framework based on the subsidiarity principle (the imperative to take decisions at the lowest effective level), requiring the acceptance of political and cultural diversity of the current and future world society. It encourages different civilisation specific development objectives and trajectories, however with all actors contributing in their own ways to the achievement of agreed common goals like combating climate change, preserving biodiversity or eradicating poverty, following the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

Chemicals and energy: The next 25 years

The chemical industry can no longer rely on a rapid expansion or production based on a single feedstock. New sources of raw materials and energy will have to be used. The uncertainties include costs, social and political factors, new competitors, and the developing botanical and biochemical technologies. The author examines energy use in the OECD area and discusses the factors affecting energy efficiency. He concludes that the chemical industry is likely to maintain a petrochemical base much longer than might be expected. Although competition from Eastern Europe is imminent, OPEC products are unlikely to have a significant impact before 1987. For the next decade the growth rate of the chemical industry in Western Europe will probably be around 5%. Options after petrochemicals include a return to the pathways used 30 years ago, and the new possibilities promised by the use of shale oil, nuclear power, and natural products. At present oil prices, coal is not competitive above about $\text{\$10}\text{ton}$, and for the rest of the century the upper limit is around $\text{\$20}\text{ton}$.     

Generational accounting as a tool for modelling social expenditure in Europe

Exerting an increasing pressure for reform, the demographic ageing process currently under way in Europe will be a main determinant of the development of social expenditure. This article gives an introduction to the method of generational accounting, an instrument designed to capture the effects of demographic change on future public budgets. The method is illustrated by generational accounts for France and a cross-country comparison of implicit public liabilities in Europe. Weighing the method’s advantages and shortcomings against each other, the article discusses the role that generational accounting can and should play in modelling the future of social expenditure in Europe.     

Turkey's accession to the European Union

Turkey's accession to the European Union is often discussed by posing the simple question of whether it should be admitted. Polite legal discussions will quickly point to the Copenhagen criteria for admission of a state to the Union. Less polite discussion will raise issues regarding whether the whole state can be characterized as a religious state, and a Muslim state at that, whether there is independent government interest beyond the military and religious interests and whether more than 2 million Turks already living in the European Union give Europe any idea of what it might be like to have Turkey admitted in its entirety. In the end, this author concludes that given all of these obstacles, perhaps the most telling question to be asked is why Turkey has been invited in the first place.     

Intangibles and accounting classifications: in search of a classification strategy

The present paper is concerned with classification of ‘intangibles’ and what classification theory can teach us about a ‘good classification’. The present study led to three conclusions about the classification of intangibles. One is that the value of classification lies in its function as a heuristic device, i.e. as a help construction. Accounting becomes the art of background design. Another conclusion is that if we choose to account for intangibles it does not need to change the transaction base of financial accounting. Rather, it is an issue how to classify and label a universe of transactions. Finally, the dichotomy tangible–intangible should not be acknowledged as a supposition. Depending on perspective, purpose and type of financial accounting model, other concepts may do a better job in classifying the accounting world.     

Africa's dilemma in the transition to the new information and communication technologies

The emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs) has dramatically altered theoretical and practical assumptions about the role of the communication media in socioeconomic development. Today, the role of ICTs in developed and developing societies remains a subject of debate, and Africa has been caught in the middle of this debate. Advocates of ICTs, for instance, point to how the West experienced the impact of industrial technology and found it to be an indispensable tool for development. If the new technologies are good for the West, will the same hold true for the developing world? For Africa, the question is a difficult one: will the new information and communication technologies launch Africa on the path of socioeconomic development or will they subject Africa to a new form of dependence? This article argues that the communication technology which will be adopted by Africans, irrespective of how the West moves, will be the one that is easily accessible and which poses no challenge to sociocultural practices. That communication technology of the future will be the telephone.     

Two scenarios for Europe: “Europe confronted with high energy prices” or “Europe after oil peaking”

A significant change in trends regarding energy prices (in particular oil) has taken place in 2003 at the beginning of the Iraq War. It has revealed a very strong tension between oil prices on the one hand and the relationship between global oil supply and demand on the other. The strong growth rates of emerging economies up to 2008 have generated a very sharp increase in oil prices. The temporary economic recession of 2008-2009 has resulted in turn into a significant decrease of oil prices, down to a level which remained, however, twice as high as that of early 2003. With the economy recovering from the recession, it is highly probable that energy prices will continue to increase and that Europe will be confronted with high energy prices in the coming decades. Against this general background, two scenarios have been elaborated which differ mainly by the time of occurrence of oil peaking.¹ The differences between the scenario hypotheses are therefore differences of context in relation to exogenous factors. Policies are also considered in the scenarios, but they are not at the forefront and their impact is considered as limited in relation to that of exogenous factors.The first scenario “Europe in a context of high energy price” assumes that the process of oil peaking will not take place before 2030, but that oil price increase will nevertheless be sustained and substantial until then. Numerous adjustments will have to be made in the economy and their territorial impacts will be significant (less polycentricity, more compact cities, decline of the importance of road and air transport). The second scenario “Europe after oil production peaking” assumes that oil production will peak around the mid-2010s (followed by gas production peaking around 2025), despite significant investments to increase production. In a context of steadily growing oil and gas demand, Europe will be confronted with serious economic difficulties. The territorial impacts will be different from those suggested by the first scenario, with stronger pressure put on rural areas and a loss of attractiveness of large cities related to increasing unemployment and social tensions. In both scenarios, the countries of central and eastern Europe will be more severely hit by the new energy context.The scenarios were elaborated in 2005 and slightly reviewed in 2009 in order to take account of the impacts of the economic recession in Europe and of the growing concerns about climate change.     

Recounting counting and accounting: From political arithmetic to measuring intangibles and back

Humans have, for centuries, measured and quantified their world and themselves in various ways. This ‘quantifying impulse’ reached an early peak in Europe in the era of political arithmetic, from the late seventeenth through the eighteenth centuries. The overall purpose of this paper is to examine contemporary attempts to measure intangible qualities and to compare them to similar attempts from the political arithmetic era. The discussion is structured using three themes; the idea of balance, the search for correlations and the conception of human nature. The findings of the paper indicates that the era of political arithmetic is not so distant at it might seems.     

The European flying geese: New FDI patterns for the old continent?

This article attempts to apply the flying geese metaphor to emerging foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns in Europe and the Mediterranean. Such a division of labour is at best at a nascent stage, given the overwhelming share of Western Europe in both inward and outward foreign direct investment flows. Because of these imbalances, special attention is to be paid to Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) potential, both in the group joining the European Union (EU) in 2004 and the rest of the subregion. For the former, middle-income countries, risks in investment promotion are related to uncertainty brought about by the transition to European Union’s acquis and an eventually too fast increase in production costs. Policy response to that requires a modernisation of both general and specific investment promotion policies, adjusted to the rules of the Union. For the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, the challenge is to adjust to the enlarged European Union and to improve the business and investment environment, in order to capture the foreign direct investment outflows of other European countries searching for optimum labour costs.     

Community in the new epoch: the social ergonomics of community design

‘Community’ as both location and structure of relationships is undergoing change. In the Western world the rate of changes will inevitably accelerate in this new century. Our predictions include: the vast growth of cyber communities, and an increasing bandwidth, immersivity and interactivity in such communities; the expansion of the surveillance age in urban and rural communities, as rampant public crime works against community safety; an increased emphasis on social control in highly conservative communities that foster conformity; the development of Smart Towns with every service, facility and communication accessed by fibre-optic cable technology. Style will become a major priority in the 2025 community. The gurus of the age will be the Community Designers. At first these will be multi-disciplinary visionaries, who will be accorded the fame and celebrity of late-twentieth-century film stars. Their ideas for planned communities will take into account the above, but also offer grand schemes for the development of theme towns.Our scenarios indicate the continuing need by many citizens for ideals and ideology of traditional community life, but encased in new guises, with individual well-being and entertainment as priority. In general, current trends of disenfranchisement through globalization, multinationals and non-consultative government act to increase the chances of our scenarios coming about. A major social change through political awakening of the young, global neo-environmental movements and other massive global paradigm shifts would mitigate against our scenarios. We see the latter as unlikely.     

Pacific science in the 21st century

‘Science’ is often implied to be something emanating from Western Europe or its derivatives. But the people of the 24 nations and territories of the Pacific Islands also want their unique scientific knowledge recognized and perpetuated. Politically the islands are divided into 24 nations and territories, and culturally their people speak about 1200 different languages—each with some differences of culture. This is much the greatest cultural fragmentation on earth. Each culture has, over thousands of years, experimented and discovered some unique principles and evolved some unique techniques. For example, some principles of Pacific navigation (for many centuries the world's most advanced) and techniques of vessel construction, are unknown elsewhere—even today. Some pharmaceutical remedies are unique, some items of marine and plant science are not known to ‘Western science’ and so on. It is to these that the term ‘Pacific science’ refers. This essay explores the potentials for Pacific science in the future, and for Pacific contributions to global knowledge.     

Blackfoot physics and European minds

Western science and ‘European consciousness’ is contrasted with that of Indigenous and traditional peoples. The metaphysics of the Blackfoot of North America and this vision of an animate world is examined. It is argued that something similar existed in Europe of the early middle ages but that the secularization of space, time and matter paved the way for the development of science. A new science may be possible which combines the current power of abstraction and analysis with an ‘impersonal subjectivity’.