Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?

This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modern life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.     

Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations

For meaningful scenarios, creative input concerning possible future trends is crucial. Herman Kahn, the father of modern scenario planning, underlined the importance of “thinking the unthinkable” in a significant scenario study. “Blessed with high intelligence, an assertive personality and the research capabilities of the RAND Corporation,” he could rely on genius forecasting. But how can this foresight be creative as well as simultaneously credible and objective if one does not possess Kahn's genius? In this article, we assess the incorporation of expert knowledge via the Delphi technique into scenario planning as a promising option. We discuss possible combinations and identify the span of design alternatives in the existing body of Delphi-based scenario studies through a systematic research review and provide recommendations on how a Delphi-based scenario study should be designed to ensure quality. We recommend focusing on the integration of the Delphi technique only in one phase of the scenario approach. In this way, the design options can be intentionally adjusted to the particular function. We further offer recommendations on how to accomplish this.     

Future memories

Although the concept of foresight is now widely used by Anglo-American writers, the Romance-language countries have continued to refer to the concept of la prospective or prospectiva since the early 1960s. Despite cultural differences, the two concepts are very similar. Nevertheless, the author argues that prospective is closer to strategic foresight. The prospective attitude does not wait for change and then react; it aims to master expected change (preactivity) and to induce a desired change (proactivity). Preactivity is what guides all approaches to future studies, forecasting, scenario planning and foresight. Proactivity is more voluntarist, and aims to bring about the desired changes by means of strategic planning. This leads to a hopeful message: We just have to rethink the problems to move forward. The author highlights the enduring relevance of several key thinkers ranging from Saint Augustine and Seneca to Gaston Berger and Igor Ansoff. He emphasizes the importance of a collectivity's thinking together about the future and taking action. Overall the article pleads for rigor yet some common sense explains the utility of participatory foresight with simple tools (morphological analysis, prospective workshops). In conclusion, this article emphasizes two symmetrical errors: ignore the existence of a hammer when in front of a nail or consider every problem a nail because you have a hammer!     

Towards a framework to understand purpose in Futures Studies: The role of Vickers' Appreciative System

There have been comments recently about the efficacy of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, relating to confusion on knowledge aggregation and methodology, which can be summarised in the question: “how to determine the purpose of such projects”. The lack of a purpose framework makes it difficult for ‘clients’ initiating such projects to determine if outcomes meet their original expectations. This paper proposes a framework to help understand the nature, objective and purpose of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, which we will argue helps to overcome these concerns. The proposed framework is based on Vickers' definition of an Appreciative System, highlighting how decision making involves three areas of judgment — reality judgment, value judgment, and instrumental judgment. It will be argued that decision-makers and policymakers call for Futures Studies projects when they become aware of an organizational deficiency in one or more of these areas.Each element, alone or in combination, could form the basis of a purpose definition for a Futures Studies project, and, therefore, needs to be considered to ensure that the project meets client expectations and is experienced as purposeful and rewarding. The paper elaborates on each of the three elements, and then discusses their integrated nature. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of Appreciative System theory for three key players in the decision making process, the organizational leadership, the professionals and the organization at large involved in the practice of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects.     

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology

It is widely recognised that the world is facing climate challenges that necessitate transitions towards more energy-efficient buildings. A key challenge is that visions of energy efficient buildings in policies often fail to become aligned with existing local practices. In order to overcome such a gap between policy visions and their implementation in practice specific forms of strategic work is needed, according to new transformative ideas in spatial planning. The aim of this paper is to characterize the transformative capacities of this kind of strategic work at the spatial scale of the town in order to assess how such activities engage with sustainable transitions. The theoretical contribution of the paper is to compare strategic work performed in transformative forms of spatial planning with the strategic work intended in strategic niche management, which represent a change-management process for enabling transitions. The study outlines the proactive spatial planning of a Danish local authority in order to illustrate how the strategic work performed in this kind of local development project represents a special form of niche management that is able to create room for innovation and challenge existing socio-technical regimes in the building sector, but still different to typical strategic niche management processes. Based on this empirical study, the paper challenges the narrow focus on niches around technology development processes in strategic niche management by pointing towards niche planning in local development projects as another relevant context for niche management. However, as discussed in the paper, this assumes a more strategic form of planning than is often practised today, where more emphasis is put on how planning can contribute to promoting sustainable transitions.     

Strategic management: The state-of-the-art and beyond

A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era. Current planning practices show that large corporations have developed complex strategic information systems, a decision-making process that is inherently organic, and planning operations that embody cybernetic principles. However, the prevailing approach to strategic planning is severely limited because it is based upon an old model of corporate management that has become outmoded: a restricted focus on hard technology leaves critical soft issues unresolved, authoritarian hierarchies produce the typical disadvantages of bureaucracy, and a closed-system orientation isolates the firm from its environment. New approaches to business management seem to be evolving now to overcome these constraints: the frontier of economic progress is shifting to a new form of soft growth, organizational structures are being transformed into entrepreneurial networks, and the institutional role of business is expanding to include its external constituencies. These trends represent key features of a new model of strategic management—the “strategically managed corporation”— that is specifically suited for fostering strategic change.     

GOS tree (Goal-Objective-Strategy tree) approach to strategic planning using a fuzzy-Delphi process: An application to the Indian Shrimp Industry

Setting long-term goals, specifying short-term objectives, and formulating strategies to achieve the objectives are the key elements in a strategic planning process. In this paper, we have used hierarchical relationships among these key elements to propose a Goal-Objective-Strategy (GOS) tree. We have proposed an algorithm to validate the structural relationship between two hierarchically adjacent elements of the GOS tree by getting their feasibility score rated in a five-point linguistic scale with the help of a Delphi questionnaire survey. The linguistic scores were then converted into fuzzy scores and consensus of Delphi experts' opinions on feasibility of various statements were derived mathematically using fuzzy aggregation algorithm. We have applied the GOS-tree-based approach as a tool for strategic planning for the Indian Shrimp Industry that has displayed a cyclic performance in the past and has shown signs of rejuvenation in recent times.     

SIAM: Strategic Impact and Assumptions-Identification Method for project,program, and policy planning

This paper presents a method, called SIAM, for assessing the “social soundness” of projects, programs, and policies (with emphasis here on the first two). It is based on work by R.O. Mason, I.I. Mitroff, and J.R. Emshoff. SIAM was applied initially as one part of a computer-assisted framework for the socioeconomic assessment of highway infrastructure plans. It has since proven useful in a wide range of projects and programs.A development project at the planning stage is a future scenario. Its final form and impact will be conditioned not only by its structural and economic characteristics, but also by the characteristics of the environment in which it is embedded. It is vital therefore to assess not only a project's technical and economic viability, but also its strategic viability involving sociopolitical considerations. A project embodies certain expectations about the present and future behavior of a variety of interests. These assumptions are implicit in the technical design and projected impacts, including the estimated benefits. The success of the project hinges on the validity and stability of these assumptions. SIAM provides a procedure for the comprehensive identification of relevant stakeholders, stakeholder-project linkages, and for identifying the critical assumptions implicit in the technical design of the project and in its economic assessment.     

Macroeconomic Impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage in China

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But a CCS facility consumes vast amounts of energy and capital. With this in mind we analyze macroeconomic consequences of a large scale introduction of CCS in China. We modify and extend the DRC-CGE, a macroeconomic CGE model of the country that is used for long-term planning and policy analyses. We analyze an internal finance scenario of domestic funding, and an external finance scenario of international funding. In the external finance scenario CCS is installed on 70 % of all power plants by 2050. This increases demand for coal in 2050 by one fifth and import of coal by one fourth. The strain on coal resources may be an important political concern for China. In the internal finance scenario coal resources are not strained since this scenario introduces a price on carbon that lifts prices of energy. Moreover, the price on carbon cuts across the board and the internal finance scenario is much more effective at reducing \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) . On the other hand, in this scenario GDP goes down about 4 %, which also raises political concern.     

Strategic planning, strategic management, strategic foresight: The seminal work of H. Igor Ansoff

H. Igor Ansoff was the prominent reference in the corporate strategy field, especially during the 1960s and 1970s. His bestseller, Corporate Strategy, was the first to give a conceptual framework and a tool box to top managers, consultants and scholars. Recognized as the real pioneer of the field, he was seen by Henry Mintzberg as also the leader of the strategic planning school. The aim of this short article is to show that he was also the father of strategic management and a leader who gave an impressive set of concepts and ideas to promote an integrative and flexible view of strategic planning, strategic foresight, organizational structures and processes.     

Strategic Planning for High-Tech Product Development

A three-questionnaire DELPHI management issues study of technology management problems identifies the top 24 technology management problems of advanced-technology product companies. These problems are ranked in order of importance. Strategic planning for technology products is found to be the dominant problem. A striking theme of the findings is the extent to which several of the twenty four issues are related to this dominant problem. Arguably, not only is strategic planning the top technology management problem of product development in high-tech companies but it is also the cornerstone problem. Dealing effectively with this top problem will require attention to aspects of several others of the management problems. This article first examines the area of strategic planning in advanced-technology product development. It then summarizes the DELPHI study's findings and explores the central role among these findings of strategic planning for technology products. The next 10 problems in importance then are examined in the context of their relationship to the top issue of strategic planning for technology products.     

Organizational ambidexterity: Integrating deliberate and emergent strategy with scenario planning

In this article we propose scenario planning as a tool for fostering organizational ambidexterity. The concept of organizational ambidexterity continues to gain attention, however, clear methods for developing this organizational ability are generally not offered. We therefore describe organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature. Key characteristics of organizational ambidexterity are provided, and the logical link to scenario planning is made. As the concept of organizational ambidexterity is relatively novel, our proposal highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”, and clear next steps are described to examine our proposal as well as leverage the concept of organizational ambidexterity beyond that of a simple metaphor.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.     

基于情景规划的国家公园气候变化 应对：美国经验及对中国的启示

：应对气候变化已成为全球共识，国家公园和自然保 护地既是应对气候变化的重要阵地，也是受气候变化影响的敏 感区域，但中国目前的研究和实践均还较薄弱，亟须借鉴域外 经验。系统梳理了美国国家公园体系中，气候变化对自然、文 化和社区的影响，概述了美国国家公园管理局的气候变化应对 行动，指出情景规划是重要的气候变化应对工具。总结了美 国国家公园在气候变化中开展情景规划的流程，提炼其规划特 征，并以魔鬼塔国家纪念区为案例，详析其情景规划实践过 程。在此基础上，总结了中国国家公园及体制试点区可能面临 的气候变化风险，对比了情景规划与传统规划的区别，明确目 前推广条件的欠缺，指出应逐步推广情景规划，并从实现科研 储备、奠定实践基础、建立规划体系三方面提出可能的路径， 对中国开展国家公园和自然保护地应对气候变化的相关工作具 有借鉴意义。     

Strategic Planning for High-Tech Product Development

A three-questionnaire DELPHI management issues study of technology management problems identifies the top 24 technology management problems of advanced-technology product companies. These problems are ranked in order of importance. Strategic planning for technology products is found to be the dominant problem. A striking theme of the findings is the extent to which several of the twenty four issues are related to this dominant problem. Arguably, not only is strategic planning the top technology management problem of product development in high-tech companies but it is also the cornerstone problem. Dealing effectively with this top problem will require attention to aspects of several others of the management problems. This article first examines the area of strategic planning in advanced-technology product development. It then summarizes the DELPHI study's findings and explores the central role among these findings of strategic planning for technology products. The next 10 problems in importance then are examined in the context of their relationship to the top issue of strategic planning for technology products.     

Uncertainty, human action and scenarios

The “scenario method,” “scenario building,” or “multiple futures analysis” emerged during the last decades as a premier instrument for strategic planning and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. This article demonstrates that there is an intrinsic link between the scenario method and Austrian theory not only at the level of basic epistemological principles but also at the methodological and applied levels. The article also argues that the scenario method could easily be embraced as a part of the Austrian family of ideas and more precisely as one of the key policy applications or decision support tools informed by that school of thought. Blending explicitly and systematically the scenario method with the Austrian ideas and forcefully making the case for the scenario approach as a policy and business administration tool, is thus one of the most effective ways of reasserting the importance of Austrian insights in areas such as business studies, public policy, and organizational theory, areas that currently have a limited exposure to Austrian ideas.     

Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials

In order to deal with growing uncertainties and to preserve their competitiveness, enterprises should identify future success potentials very early and develop them on time. Scenario management is a very powerful method to manage this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that are adjusted precisely to their enterprise. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. The five phases of a scenario project are explained with the aid of a concrete example. It is also shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies. Furthermore, it is used to develop similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies.