FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON GROWTH CONVERGENCE

This paper investigates whether the impacts of financial development on growth convergence vary with the stage of real development. We implement this analysis through the instrumental variable threshold regression approach proposed by Caner and Hansen. Our empirical evidence shows that financial intermediary development leads to long‐run convergence in growth of both economic activity and productivity. Moreover, such convergence‐enhancing effects of financial intermediation are stronger for less‐developed countries than for the more industrialized. In addition, the data reveal that stock market development assists growth convergence only in low‐income countries.     

货币政策与金融资产价格

( 1 )货币政策对金融资产价格 (特别是股票价格 )有影响 ,当投资的上升引起原材料和劳动力价格上涨时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是同时引起商品物价水平和股票价格的上升 ;当投资具有规模经济效应或可以使劳动生产率显著提高时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是股价的上升和物价水平的下降。因此 ,货币数量与通货膨胀的关系不仅取决于商品和服务的价格 ,而且在一定意义上取决于股市。 ( 2 )无论股市财富效应大小 ,通过货币政策刺激股票市场拉动需求的做法在长期都是不可靠的。当股市价格偏离稳态已经越来越远时 ,经济运行将是不安全的。     

Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

Agricultural productivity and economic development: the contribution of clover to structural transformation in Denmark

This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of agricultural productivity on long run economic development. It presents evidence that widespread adoption of clover contributed to local economic development based on a panel of 56 Danish market towns. We adopt a differences-in-differences approach augmented by an instrumental variable and find that the adoption of clover accounts for about 8 percent of the growth in market town population from 1672 to 1901. The analysis suggests that the effect of the adoption of clover on the process of development was mediated by its impact on human capital formation.     

The Economic Agenda: a View from Europe

Over the course of the 1990s, the US outperformed Europe not only in output growth, but also in productivity and employment generation, thereby stopping Europe's decade‐long period of catching up. The author shows that the growth difference originates at least partly from insufficient investment by Europe into the determinants of long‐run growth (research, education, and the diffusion of new technologies). Northern European countries with comprehensive welfare systems performed better than the big economies in continental Europe, owing to their timely realization that these costly systems require the highest possible levels of productivity and fast growth. The European agenda for the next decade is based on this analysis. It stresses the importance of accelerating economic growth, primarily through investment into growth drivers. Labor market reforms are necessary, as is the redefinition of macroeconomic policy, a regional policy adequate for European enlargement, and reforms in the public sector. Distributional and ecological issues are also on the agenda, even though Europe outperforms the US in these fields, as is reflective of European preferences.     

Economic Growth, TFP Convergence and the World Export of Ideas: A Century of Evidence

This paper examines the effect of international patent stock on total factor productivity for 16 OECD countries over the past 120 years. The results show that the international patent stock is highly influential for economic growth and, together with knowledge spillovers through the channel of imports, has contributed significantly to TFP growth and σ‐convergence among the OECD countries over the past 120 years.     

Equipment investment, output and productivity in China

At the beginning of the 1990s, J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers highlighted in a series of influential articles that there were good reasons and quantitative evidence to support the point of view that machinery and equipment investment might be strongly associated with economic growth. China along with its enormous investment effort over recent decades constitutes an interesting case study with which to analyse the role played by equipment investment in its recent economic performance and its interaction with other sources of growth, i.e. openness, R&D, human capital and infrastructure. Our results provide evidence that equipment investment and exports are two of the most important determinants of both labour productivity and output in the long run even after controlling for other sources of growth in China. Furthermore, when human capital and infrastructure are included, the authors find that they have a positive effect on economic activity in the long run.     

The dynamics of financial development,globalisation, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan Africa

The importance of life expectancy is recognised in the development economics literature because of its increasing effects on labour productivity and economic growth in long‐run. However, no published study to date empirically examines the nonlinear relationships between globalisation, financial development, economic growth and life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. Therefore, our study intends to fill this gap by using non‐parametric cointegration test and multivariate Granger causality test towards a non‐linear empirical understanding of the factors affecting the life expectancy. We consider the case of 16 sub‐Saharan African economies using annual data over the period 1970–2012. The empirical analysis indicates that financial development, globalisation and economic growth appear to have a positive impact upon life expectancy in sub‐Saharan African economies, except for Gabon and Togo. Our empirical findings may provide insightful policy implications towards improving population health conditions which are vital for promoting the productivity of labour force and long‐run economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries. In light of these policy implications, governments should incorporate globalisation, financial development and economic growth as key economic instruments in formulating sustainable developmental policy to promote life expectancy for the people in sub‐Saharan African countries.     

股票市场发展对资本积累的增长效应研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

本文通过中国31个省、自治区和直辖市1993~2006年的面板数据,先后采用混合估计和固定效应方法对股市融资对资本积累的影响进行实证分析,考虑到股票市场发展初期融资规模和效率的制约会影响到股市融资对资本积累的作用程度,本文构建两类样本,分别对两类样本中的股市融资对资本积累的影响进行实证分析。结果发现,随着中国股票市场的发展,股市融资对资本积累的增长效应更加明显。这不仅证明了资本积累是股票市场发展影响经济增长的一条重要渠道,而且还为深入把握股票市场发展促进经济增长的机理、路径与效果提供了重要的理论基础。     

Inter-linkages between competition and stabilisation policies in the banking sector and stock market development in Europe

The banking sector and the stock market in Europe have been adversely impacted by a series of global financial crises over the last two decades. Major financial reforms were implemented to enhance the stability and competition within the banking sector. Measures were also implemented to create a vibrant stock market in Europe to stimulate economic growth in Europe. This study examines the interactions between stock market development, banking competition, and banking stability in European countries from 1996 to 2016. The purpose of the study is to understand the inter-linkages between these variables to ascertain the spillover impact of policy reforms in the banking sector on the stock market and vice-versa. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds long-run and short-run inter-linkages between banking competition, banking stability, and stock market development in European countries. The study’s most robust result is that banking competition and banking stability stimulate stock market development in the long run. There is also some evidence that healthy competition in the banking sector and stock market development instils greater stability in the banking sector. The results suggest that policy measures put in place to create a vibrant stock market must include elevating banking competition and banking stability, with policymakers being cognizant that causality may be bidirectional.     

Productivity Growth And Market Structure In Telecommunications

This study examines sources of telecommunications sector productivity growth. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth is calculated using the Malmquist productivity index for a sample of 74 countries for the period 1991 through 1995. An econometric model is estimated which relates TFP growth to output growth, network digitisation, telecommunications development, output-mix, the business cycle and market structure. Model estimates suggest that higher digitisation rates dampen TFP growth in the short run, and cross-subsidisation of services creates inefficiency. However, developing countries can increase TFP growth through catch up, and increased privatisation and competition are conducive to productivity growth.     

Economic Impact of Internet in China

This paper examines the current status of Internet development in China; analyzes its contributions to Chinese economy from the perspective of economic structural changes, IT industry development, E-commerce, productivity growth, foreign investment, and labor market, etc.; suggests its direction in terms of government policy orientations; and proposes strategies toward greater success of Internet in China. To promote economic growth, it is important for Chinese government to establish sturdy e-environments to enable its industries to compete in the global economy and to bring about a greater cohesion within its societies.     

Trade and Investment Linkages and Stock Market Long‐Run Relationship

This paper aims to examine whether the intensity of trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock market long‐run relationship. To achieve this, we classify Australia's bilateral trade and investment partners into major, medium and minor. Empirical findings of an asymmetric generalised dynamic conditional correlation generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model show that correlations are time varying and increased significantly during the global financial crisis (GFC). Results of multivariate cointegration test confirm the long‐run equilibrium relationship between the stock markets of Australia and its major partners in the pre‐GFC and during GFC. Based on the full‐sample results, it indicates that the GFC has segmented the stock markets from the long‐run equilibrium relationship. Granger non‐causality test results on full sample show that Australian stock market causes only the New Zealand market while the USA, the UK, Germany, Canada, Switzerland and Italy drives the Australian market. Our results therefore suggest that the intensity of bilateral trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock markets' long‐term relationship.     

Financial market development,global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations

Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.     

Imports and growth in China

In this paper, we analyze the role played by imports and investment on labor productivity and output in China from 1964 to 2004. In doing so, our analysis focuses on the role of technological progress incorporated into the Chinese economy through capital accumulation and imports, which could be a cause of significant technology transfer from abroad that facilitated industrialization and rapid growth in China. However, as we know that there could be other factors influencing economic development, we have also considered the role played by domestic innovation activities, competitiveness and foreign economic conditions. We focus on examining the short- and long-run effects of the considered variables as well as the direction of their causality. In addition, we investigate the role played by the exchange rate on growth and discuss some policy implications of this effect on the current debate on the appreciation of the Yuan. The empirical results provide evidence that both imports and investment encourage output and labor productivity in the long run, but neither investment causes imports nor imports cause investment. Moreover, we found that during the period considered the real exchange rate influenced output, but not productivity. These findings provide interesting insights on the future Chinese economic policy.     

Asset bubbles,labour market frictions and R&D‐based growth

Employing an overlapping generations model of R&D‐based growth with labour market frictions, this paper examines how employment changes induced by labour market frictions influence asset bubbles and long‐run economic growth. Asset bubbles can (cannot) exist when the employment rate is high (low), which leads to higher (lower) economic growth through labour market efficiency. We also explore the steady state and transitional dynamics of bubbles, economic growth and employment. Furthermore, we show that policy or parameter changes with a negative influence on the labour market can lead to a bubble burst.     

Financial systems and economic growth in South Africa: a dynamic complementarity test

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development.     

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach

This paper examines the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in India, during the period from 1970–71 to 2018–19. Using a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Simultaneous Error Correction Approach, this study shows that fiscal deficit and revenue deficit have an adverse effect on economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. The empirical analysis confirms that fiscal deficit influences economic growth both directly, and indirectly through the routes of investment, interest rate, current account deficit and composition of government expenditure. Further, gross investment has a positive and inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. For a policy perspective, the government should control fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as suggested by the FRBM Act. The composition of government expenditure should be altered to devote more resources for the formation of productive capital in India.

     

A Schumpeterian model of investment and innovation with labor market regulation

Theoretical and empirical models provide ambiguous responses on the relationship between labor market regulation, innovation and investment. On the one hand, labor market regulation increases firms' adjustment costs and, ceteris paribus, decreases investment. But, on the other, it also stimulates firms to invest, innovate, increase productivity and profit in the long run. In this paper we present an endogenous growth model that describes the role of these opposite forces, and why a stricter labor market regulation may positively affect innovation and investment in the long run. Most of the theoretical and empirical results hold for Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.     

国家意愿与西部地区经济的持续增长——基于陕西的实证研究

本文通过建立一简单的新古典经济增长核算模型,对西部地区经济增长绩效进行了实证分析.结果表明,由政府主导的西部大开发战略的实施,推动了西部地区经济的快速增长.但是,其增长在很大程度上所依赖的是资本要素的投入特别是政府投资的增加,而非要素生产率水平的提高.这意味着,继续维持这种粗放型的经济增长模式,西部地区经济的持续增长将难以为继,而且对于西部地区经济结构的调整、市场的发育以及生产率水平的提高将会产生极为不利的影响.