城市轨道交通地下车站机电系统造价指标分析

随着经济和社会发展,我国城市轨道交通建设已进入快速发展阶段,如何有效控制投资成为制约轨道交通可持续发展的关键因素。本文结合城市轨道交通地下车站机电工程设计内容,以佛山某轨道交通线路为例,对地下车站机电工程的造价进行分析,得出不同车站机电工程经济指标,并找出影响车站机电工程造价的关键因素,为后续工程投资估算、设计概算编制及合理确定工程项目造价提供借鉴。     

Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach

Urban rail transit investments are expensive and irreversible. As people differ with respect to their demand for trips, their value of time, and the types of real estate they live in, such projects are likely to offer heterogeneous benefits to residents of a city. Defining the opening of a major new subway in Seoul as a treatment for apartments close to the new rail stations, we contrast hedonic estimates based on multivariate hedonic methods with a machine learning (ML) approach. This ML approach yields new estimates of these heterogeneous effects. While a majority of the “treated” apartment types appreciate in value, other types decline in value. We cross‐validate our estimates by studying what types of new housing units developers build in the treated areas close to the new train lines.     

基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测

为了更准确地掌握轨道交通客流在线网中的时空分布,更高效地匹配客流需求与运输能力,实现提高轨道交通运输效率、改善运营服务质量的目的,提出了一种基于长短期记忆网络的短期OD(交通起止点)客流量预测方法。以历史客流数据为基础,定性分析车站间OD客流量的时空相关性,利用回归分析法定量分析客流影响因素,筛选出运营时刻、运营日特征、最低气温3个时间特征。为提高预测精度,以长短期记忆网络为基础,结合时间特征,为每对起讫点单独构建预测模型,形成了基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测模型。以苏州市为例进行验证,结果表明,加入了时间特征的短期OD客流量预测模型较移动平均模型、仅利用历史客流数据训练的基于LSTM网络的短期OD客流量预测模型,预测结果与真实值之间的误差降低了6.27%～8.58%,所提出的方法和模型可为轨道交通运营部门制定列车运行计划、组织客运工作提供更准确的数据资料。     

PPP模式在城市轨道交通领域的应用研究

分析PPP模式的主要特点及适用于城市轨道交通工程的制约因素与适用优势,提出了充分发挥市场化运作、完善运用PPP模式法规政策、深化PPP开发模式拓宽融资渠道、提升沿线综合开发土地价值4方面关键控制要点,对促进PPP模式深化转型与轨道交通建设适用性选择具有一定参考指导作用。     

高铁网络抑制城市创新驱动发展——来自FDI的“逆城市化”解释

现有文献鲜有研究高铁开通引发的FDI流动对城市创新究竟存在何种影响效应。本文使用1999~2018年282个地级市的面板数据,构建双重差分模型研究高铁网络对沿线城市创新的影响效应与机理。研究发现:(1)高铁网络对沿线城市的高质量创新能力存在显著的抑制效应,但对应用型创新存在显著的促进效应;(2)高铁网络引发的FDI流动导致沿线城市出现“逆城市化”现象,进而抑制了城市高质量创新驱动发展进程,其解释效力达到30%以上;(3)FDI借助高铁网络流动主要导致高研发强度城市产生了“逆城市化”现象。本文为政府利用高铁网络在全国层面引导FDI合理流动并推动沿线城市高质量创新驱动发展提供了经验数据层面的参考。     

Reaction of House Prices to a New Rapid Transit Line: Chicago's Midway Line, 1983–1999

This study examines the effect of the new rapid transit line from downtown Chicago to Midway Airport on single-family house prices before and after the opening of the line. The results show that the housing market anticipated the opening of the line. House prices were being affected by proximity to the stations in the late 1980s and early 1990s—after the plans for the line were well known. The difference between the increase in the value of homes within the sample area as compared with properties farther away from the new transit stations was approximately $216 million between 1986 and 1999.     

城市轨道交通减振降噪工程措施概述及其效果分析

分析了城市轨道交通的主要噪声源,对其主要减振降噪工程措施进行了综述,并就采用减振型轨下基础的各种措施的减振降噪效果、维修工作量及其难度、造价高低、施工技术难易程度等进行了分析与比较,以期能为我国城市轨道交通建设提供技术参考。     

The Impact of Urban Development on Auto Ownership and Transit Use

This study documents an investigation of how intermetropolitan differences in transit and highway service levels; as well as overall urban development patterns, affect auto ownership and use. Specifically, this paper presents models of the determinants of auto ownership and mode choice for 163,488 white, single-worker households residing in the largest 125 SMSAs in 1970. Indices of highway capicity, transit service levels, and overall residential density for each SMSA together with each household's socio-economic characteristics, workplace location, and residence choice, are used to explain each household's observed auto ownership status (0, one, or more than one car), and, given that auto ownership status, each household's worktrip mode (auto driver, auto passenger, bus, rail, or walk).
The models offer a framework for considering the effect of alternative urban development scenarios upon auto ownership and use, and for comparing alternative development and infrastructure policy options. Because the models have been estimated using households from different SMSAs, they are particularly appropriate for investigating changes in spatial structure.     

一种基于机器视觉技术的城市轨道交通客流量检测方法

为了准确识别并检测城市轨道交通客流量变化,研究轨道交通客流量的变化规律,以客观图像为研究对象,以机器视觉技术为研究手段,提出了一种新的交通客流检测方法。在对交通客流视频图像进行滤波与增强后,利用Canny边缘帧差法从预处理图像中获取完整的运动目标轮廓。同时,利用AdaBoost检测算法构建的强分类器完成乘客头部的检测,并通过双线差值算法消除视频图像中不同位置尺寸所产生的误检框,实现对目标的跟踪与记载,完成客流量的统计。结果表明,该方法在交通客流量的检测中准确率高于90%。检测方法对提高城市轨道交通客流量的检测准确性具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Hedonic Amenity Valuation and Housing Renovations

Hedonic and repeat sales estimators are commonly used to value such important urban amenities as schools, environmental quality and access to transit. Given that property data often omits information on quality differences between same‐aged homes as well as changes in structural attributes over time, researchers must assume that property renovations are uncorrelated with neighborhood amenities. We formally test if this assumption is valid by incorporating detailed data on renovations in Charlotte, North Carolina. We begin by testing how the inclusion of minor and major home improvements influences hedonic and repeat sales indices. Results find limited bias in hedonic indices and that renovated properties are no more likely to be sold than nonrenovated properties. Using the introduction of Charlotte's light rail‐transit system in 2000, we estimate a positive bias of between 1.6% and 19.9% on the capitalized benefits of access to light rail due to omitted information on renovations. Our results show that a number of common data cleaning techniques used to address missing information on structural improvements may worsen this bias.     

The capitalization of metro rail access in urban housing markets

Increasing access to public transportation (including metro rail) can help alleviate traffic congestion and address climate and environmental priorities. Living close to a metro line may be especially important in terms of providing improved commuting options. However, proximity to metro lines can also be associated with negative externalities, such as noise and crime, that may make living near a station less desirable. One way to assess the net value that residents place on metro rail access is to examine how proximity to metro lines is capitalized into house prices. Using a hedonic spatial difference-in-differences model, we analyze the impact of proximity to the stations on the Gold and Expo Lines in Los Angeles, California, on nearby house prices. Our findings suggest that the capitalization effect is heterogeneous. Some residents value living near new metro stations, while others do not. Overall, our results provide evidence that the value residents place on metro rail access varies based on their income levels and other demographics.     

北溪管道：为债务危机中的欧洲“打气”

北溪天然气管道的建成投产,为俄罗斯与欧盟天然气贸易增加了新的通道,将加强俄欧能源与经济合作,推动俄欧关系进步,有利于为深陷主权债务危机的欧洲国家“打气”。该管道将使乌克兰失去其作为过境中转国的独特地位,有利于俄罗斯管理与乌克兰等能源过境国之间的关系,保障俄罗斯与欧盟的能源安全;有利于俄罗斯开展能源外交,对天然气过境国分而治之,实现将乌克兰等国纳入关税同盟的目的,从而加快俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟的建设。     

Advances in the competitiveness of pan‐European rail freight services: findings from a case study

The European rail freight market is ostensibly a free market where, from 1 January 2007, both incumbent and new‐entrant operators are able to compete on every line and in every European Union country. The main objective of this research paper is to assess the advances in the competitiveness of the pan‐European rail freight services operated by a new‐entrant (private) operator. Its main focus is to assess and contribute to the understanding of the advances towards competitiveness and the future prospects in the open European rail freight market, including dealing with challenges (e.g. dormant and departure of partners, suspension of the project, indistinct roles and responsibilities of operating partners) at different phases of the research, development and service offerings, that will be an important contribution to the Research and Development (R&D) policy and management arena in the Europe rail freight transport sector. The current research applies a case study research approach. The assessment of the rail freight service is performed by conducting two phases: first, a comparison of the progress between first and second year of the REorganisation of Transport networks by advanced RAil freight Concepts (RETRACK) rail freight service, operated by a new entrant and conducted on the corridor between two hubs – Cologne, Germany, and Györ, Hungary, and secondly a comparison of the opinions of customers on the RETRACK service and its competitors. From the comparative study between the first and second years, the study finds that the new‐entrant operator was able to offer an increased number of services by consolidating cargo from satellite connections at both ends of the operational corridor by adopting a pragmatic and flexible approach. The customer satisfaction survey suggests that the new‐entrant operator offered better service in terms of price, transit time, reliability and information flow/management compared to its competitors' services (offered by incumbent rail operators) on the corridor. However, their service was inferior to that of its competitors, in terms of frequency and availability of service. These less‐well performed service factors have improved gradually over time. The study suggests that intra‐rail competition has improved, but that inter‐modal completion is yet to be achieved. The ups and downs of the project provide important lessons for R&D management, academia and policy makers. The study suggests that a pan‐European rail freight service can be efficiently and effectively run by new‐entrant operators, and this will lead to more intra‐modal competition. However, they have yet to achieve competitiveness that will result in a shift of cargo from road to rail by offering an improved service that at least matches the major attributes of road freight service, e.g. price, transit time, door‐to‐door service and working in a collaborative way with other actors.     

转变城市发展方式之低碳城市建设——基于德国经验借鉴

首先从产业能源体系、低碳交通网络及生态环境三方面梳理德国低碳城市建设实践,然后总结德国在低碳意识培养、战略目标制定、政策体系建设等方面值得借鉴的经验,最后从“公平-效率-质量”视角为我国低碳城市建设提出建设路径:加快创新驱动,提高建设效率;提供制度支持,注重建设公平;强调以人为本,提升建设质量。     

The Value of Access to Rail Transit in a Congested City: Evidence from Housing Prices in Beijing

Using unique data sets of Beijing's congestion patterns and housing prices, I find that consumers are willing to pay significantly more for access to rail transit in more congested areas. Transit accessibility, however, offers little travel advantage outside of dense urban areas. The expansion of the metro network mitigates the costs of road congestion, creating both private and social benefits. Two policy initiatives aimed at reducing congestion are found to have achieved positive value effects. Further analysis reveals heterogeneous demand for accessibility, with wealthier residents and those owning fewer cars paying a higher premium for access to rail transit.     

对油气管道过境费确定标准的思考

未来我国的油气资源保障将越来越多地依赖过境管道,缴纳的过境费也将越来越多。文章介绍了设置过境费的目的及其确定标准,认为相对于替代线路节省的建设投资与经营成本,是确定过境国对项目所做贡献的直接标准,是设置过境费的上限。由于油气价格上升和不稳定性增大,建议引进"累进"制的过境费计价公式,使过境国自动地从高油气价格中获益,从而减少油气资源国、消费国和过境国之间的冲突。     

新农村建设的功能分析

中国新农村建设几年来取得了诸多成绩,但也存在着一些严重的问题。通过分析,新农村建设应具有社会化服务、社区组织化、农村城镇化发展、缓解二元经济结构以及统筹城乡发展等功能。实现上述功能新农村建设需要选择新的路径：高标准统筹规划新农村建设,提高农民组织水平,培养全面发展的新型农民。     

Redevelopment along arterial streets: The effects of light rail on land use change

We use difference-in-differences approaches and parcel-level data from Minneapolis to estimate the effects of light rail on land use change using alternate definitions of treatment area. Results using circular buffers corroborate previous findings that light rail has virtually no effect on land use change in our study area. In contrast, light rail increases the likelihood of land use change along arterial streets that cross the line at station areas. To accurately model the effects of public transit projects on urban land use, one must consider how potential riders access station areas, rather than assuming accessibility improves radially around a station.     

盾构侧穿水库土石坝引起的变形特性分析

为研究隧道工程侧穿水坝的安全性问题,结合宁句城际轨道侧穿汤泉水库工程背景，利用有限元软件分析了盾构机掘进过程中隧道周围土体和土石坝变形规律，并研究了不同水库水位条件对隧道施工产生的坝顶位移影响。结果表明，施工期间盾构机周围土体竖向位移呈“W”型分布，地表隆起和沉降值均符合规范限值要求；从土石坝的变形情况来看，坝体竖向位移远大于水平位移，且主要集中在土石坝的背水面，随着掘进位置与坝体距离的缩小，坝体最大竖向位移位置不断向坝顶方向上移且在坝体更深处产生影响；为保证结构安全，盾构施工应选择水库水位相对较低且稳定的时期。研究结果可为隧道盾构开挖时有较高变形控制要求的建筑物结构安全评估和工程施工提供参考。     

工程造价咨询行业自律建设现存问题及改进探讨

工程造价咨询行业的发展以及简政放权的行政管理体制改革持续推进,使得更高质量行业自律体系建设的迫切需求应运而生。文章通过分析目前各省市在行业自律方面的举措及其实施,发现“行业协会自身角色定位不清晰、体系化建设缺失”是目前行业自律效果欠佳的主要症结。鉴于此,文章一方面结合政府机关与协会商会“脱钩”的改革要求和行业对社会及国民经济具备较大“外溢性”这一特点,确定了工程造价咨询行业协会的角色定位为“共益组织”,明确了行业协会应在行业自律建设中起主导作用;另一方面强化“一盘棋”的体系化建设原则,通过构建组织、标准、机制以及支撑等四大体系,不仅可以有针对性地完善参与主体、规则标准、管理机制、信息平台等要素内部状态,而且更可以在行业协会的统筹协调下,激发各要素间的相互促进作用,以充分发挥工程造价咨询行业自律体系的价值。