Competitive search markets for durable goods

Summary. This paper considers a dynamic version of Akerlof's (1970) lemons problem where buyers and sellers must engage in search to find a trading partner. We show that if goods are durable, the market itself may provide a natural sorting mechanism. In equilibrium, high-quality goods sell at a higher price than low-quality goods but also circulate longer. This accords with the common wisdom that sellers who want to sell fast may have to accept a lower price. We then compare the equilibrium outcomes under private information with those under complete information. Surprisingly, we find that for a large range of parameter values the quilibrium outcomes under the two information regimes coincide, despite the fact that circulation time is used to achieve separation. Received: August 24, 2000; revised version: October 24, 2000     

Bounded rationality in laboratory bargaining with asymmetric information

Summary. This paper reports an experiment on two-player sequential bargaining with asymmetric information that features some forces present in multi-round monopoly pricing environments. Buyer-seller pairs play a series of bargaining games that last for either one or two rounds of offers. The treatment variable is the probability of continuing into a second round. Equilibrium predictions do a poor job of explaining levels of prices and treatment effects. As an alternative to the conventional equilibrium model, we consider models that allow for bounded rationality of subjects. The quantal response equilibrium model captures some of the important features of the results.Received: 30 April 2003, Revised: 10 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C78, D82, D42, C91. Correspondence to: Timothy N. CasonThis research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation (SBR-9809110). The experiments were run at the Economic Science Laboratory of the University of Arizona and the Krannert Laboratory for Experimental Economic Research at Purdue University, using the z-Tree software developed at the Institute for Empirical Research at the University of Zurich (Fischbacher [8]). David Cooper, Rachel Croson, Charles Noussair, an anonymous referee, and conference participants at the Economic Science Association and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory meetings provided helpful comments. Timothy ONeill Dang, Thomas Wilkening and Marikah Mancini provided expert research assistance.     

Cycles and multiple equilibria in the market for durable lemons

Summary. The paper investigates the nature of market failure in a dynamic version of Akerlof (1970) where identical cohorts of a durable good enter the market over time. In the dynamic model, equilibria with qualitatively different properties emerge. Typically, in equilibria of the dynamic model, sellers with higher quality wait in order to sell and wait more than sellers of lower quality. The main result is that for any distribution of quality there exist an infinite number of cyclical equilibria where all goods are traded within a certain number of periods after entering the market. Received: December 21, 2000; revised version: September 5, 2001     

Delegation and polarization of platforms in political competition

Summary. We consider a model of political competition among two ideological parties who are uncertain about the distribution of voters. The distinguishing feature of the model is that parties can delegate electoral decisions to candidates by nomination. It is shown that if the credible platform commitments of the candidates is feasible, then at least one of the parties nominates in equilibrium to a candidate who has an ideology that is more radical than the delegating party's ideology. In a variety of circumstances, this, in turn, yields a polarization of equilibrium policy choices of the candidates. It is thus argued formally here that strategic nomination of the candidates may well be one of the major reasons behind the well documented observation that the platforms associated with the political parties in two-party democracies are often surprisingly polarized. Received: January 10, 2002; revised version: May 8, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Alberto Alesina, Levent Ko?kesen, Antonio Merlo, Ronny Razin, Vijay Krishna, Alessandro Lizzeri, and seminar participants at Alicante, Columbia, Copenhagen, and NYU for helpful comments. We also thank an anonymous referee for its useful suggestions. A good fraction of this research was conducted while Ok was a visitor in the Department of Economics at University of Alicante; he thanks for the kind hospitality of this institution. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education through grant CICYT BEC2001-0535 (Faulí-Oller) and BEC2001-0980 (Ortu?o-Ortín). Correspondence to:I. Ortu?o-Ortin     

内幕交易:理论、模型及实证研究

对内幕交易的研究始于证券监管的历史,近年来,随着理论的发展和数据的充足以及越来越多的国家加强对内幕交易的监管,内幕交易已成为金融市场理论中的热点研究领域。本文在综合国外研究成果的基础上,着重从理论、模型及实证三个方面对其发展进行了深入论介,最后对其未来的发展方向和研究重点提出了展望。     

How does the diversity of investors’ beliefs affect stock price informativeness?

A growing number of studies have investigated the role of stock prices in aggregating private information and guiding resource reallocation. However, this article may be the first attempt to study how the diversity of beliefs affects stock price informativeness. The framework of the noisy rational expectations model shows that stock informativeness is determined by both the precision and use of private information in trading. If private beliefs about the value are highly diverse, the aggregate average opinion revealed in a stock’s price will be more accurate and, thus, more informative. As the price becomes more informative, however, individual investors will rely less on their private information. When this occurs, less private information will be absorbed in price, which, in turn, reduces price informativeness. Our model shows that the relationship between belief diversity and price informativeness is U-shaped in equilibrium.     

Equilibrium in a durable goods market with lumpy adjustment

Durable goods are an important component of the business cycle. Equilibrium models of durable goods markets are made difficult by the lumpy nature of individual purchases. We show that a straightforward approximation of the distribution of durable goods holdings gives rise to a tractable equilibrium model. We analyze the case of competition as well as that of a monopoly producer.     

Intermediate goods trade and international wage convergence in Central Europe

The recent literature on international outsourcing points out that cross-border fragmentation of production processes may foster the convergence of international factor prices. This paper makes a first attempt to analyze this hypothesis empirically using a small panel of NACE 2-digit wage data of three Central and Eastern European economies.     

Rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria in an overlapping-generations economy

There are two theories for the treatment of market uncertainty: rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria. This paper shows how the game-theoretic solution concept of rationalizable expectations can be applied to an overlapping-generations exchange economy. Some general properties of these equilibria are discussed. It is shown that rationalizable-expectations equilibria are the predictions yielded by considering sunspot equilibria in which probability beliefs may differ across individuals. This result allows for a new interpretation of sunspot equilibria and helps to understand their relevance.     

Depreciation and intergenerational altruism in the private provision of public goods

The static model of the private provision of public goods is refuted by empirical and experimental evidence which shows that contributions are above the levels predicted by the theory. The model is reconsidered here in an intertemporal framework that allows the formation of a stock of public good over time and admits intergenerational altruism into preferences. Both of these factors affect the level of private provision. An intertemporal version of the Samuelson rule is derived and it is shown that, for some parameter values, the provision level determined by this is matched by private provision. For other parameter values, it is shown how a system of taxation can achieve the optimum.     

Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption

This article studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioural model in which agents make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. This article shows that the null hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected in favour of the behavioural model, since consumption responds to predictable forecast errors. On average, agents who we predict are too pessimistic increase consumption after the predictable positive income shock. On average, agents who are too optimistic reduce the consumption.     

Giffen goods and market making

Summary. This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible for the Giffen goods anomaly affecting traders demands in multi asset noisy, rational expectations equilibrium markets. The role that information plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market with risk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents have a dual trading motive: speculation and market making. The former entails using prices to assess the effect of error terms; the latter requires employing them to disentangle noise traders demands within aggregate orders. In a correlated environment this complicates the signal extraction problem and may generate upward sloping demand curves. Assuming (i) that competitive, risk neutral market makers price the assets or that (ii) uninformed traders risk tolerance coefficient grows unboundedly, removes the market making component from informed traders demands rendering them well behaved in prices.Received: 30 April 2002, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: G100, G120, G140.Support from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA and the Ente per gli Studi Monetari e Finanziari Luigi Einaudi, are gratefully acknowledged. I thank Anat Admati, Jordi Caballé, Giacinta Cestone, and Xavier Vives for useful suggestions. The comments provided by the Associate Editor and an anonymous referee greatly improved the papers exposition.     

Country size and the voluntary provision of international public goods

Standard studies on voluntary contributions to an international public good treat national economies as if they were single agents. This masks the fact that nations are comprised of populations of citizens, whose collective benefits a national government takes account of when deciding on the amount of the contributions. This paper constructs a model which explicitly allows for the effect of population differences and explores their consequences. We can then present the so-called exploitation of the great by the small by Olson and Zeckhauser [Olson, M., Zeckhauser, R., 1966. An economic theory of alliances. Review of Economics and Statistics 48 (1966) 266–279] and explore how residents of larger countries fare relative to those in smaller countries. We also elaborate on the effects of changing populations and show that growing into a large country is not necessarily beneficial for the country's residents.     

Ambiguity on audits and cooperation in a public goods game

We investigate the impact of various audit schemes on the provision of public goods, when contributing less than the average of the other group members is centrally sanctioned and the probability of an audit is unknown. We study how individuals update their beliefs about the probability of being audited, both before and after audits are permanently withdrawn. We find that when individuals have initially experienced systematic audits, they decrease both their beliefs and their contributions almost immediately after audits are withdrawn. In contrast, when audits were initially less frequent and more irregular, they maintain high beliefs and continue cooperating long after audits have been withdrawn. This identifies the compliance effect of irregularity and uncertainty due to learning difficulties. By increasing both the frequency of audits and the severity of sanctions, we also identify an educative effect of frequent and high sanctions on further cooperation.     

Second-party and third-party punishment in a public goods experiment

We experimentally investigate whether third-party punishment is more effective than second-party punishment to increase public goods contribution. In our experiment, third parties first played the standard public goods game and then made punishment decisions as independent bystanders. We find that third parties punished more frequently, severely and less antisocially, resulting in a higher contribution level than that driven by second-party punishment. The third party’s exaggerated emotion towards free riders is proposed to explain their superior punishment effectiveness.     

Ethnic diversity, tax limitations and public goods

One strand of research in public economics has found that increasing ethnic diversity leads to reductions in provision of productive public goods. Another strand of research has emphasized the key role that tax and expenditure limitations play in the provision of public services. This paper explores the interaction between these two effects. The regression results suggest that the prior results on ethnic diversity are robust when TELs are taken into consideration. In addition, the imposition of TELs mitigates the negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on the share of local spending on education and roads. It also mitigates the positive correlation between ethnic diversity and total local government revenue and expenditure per capita.     

Existence,uniqueness and some comparative statics for ratio and Lindahl equilibria

We present a rigorous, yet elementary, demonstration of the existence of a unique Lindahl equilibrium under the assumptions that characterize the standard n-player public good model. Indeed, our approach, which exploits the aggregative structure of the public good model, lends itself to a transparent geometric representation. Moreover, it can handle the more general concept of the cost share or ratio equilibrium. Finally, we indicate how it may be exploited to facilitate comparative static analysis of Lindahl and cost share equilibria.      

公共池塘资源自主治理理论与我国农村社区公共产品治理的研究

埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆的公共池塘资源自主治理理论完善了准公共产品理论,结合社会资本因素的集体行动及制度供给理论给我们提供了研究农村社区公共产品供给及治理新的视角。基于此,在简要回顾目前国内农村社区公共产品治理研究及其不足之处的基础上,借鉴公共池塘资源自主治理理论,提出今后我国农村社区公共产品治理研究中需要进一步加强研究的内容及方向,以促进农村公共事业的可持续发展。     

On the use of labels in credence goods markets

We analyze credence goods markets in the case of two firms. Consumers know that the quality of the good varies but do not know which firm is of high quality. First, we show that the high quality producer may be unable to monopolize the market, or even to survive in some cases, in situations where it is efficient and trusted by all consumers. Second, although a label restoring full information improves welfare, it may also reduce both firms’ profits by intensifying competition. Since even the high quality producer may not wish to label its product, in such cases the label must be mandatory. Third, an imperfect label which moves everybody’s beliefs closer to the truth without restoring full information may produce adverse results on market structure and welfare, either by increasing or by reducing the variance of beliefs.