会计信息虚假陈述民事赔偿亟待解决的问题

对证券市场会计信息虚假陈述的认定应主要遵循"程序理性"原则,而非"结果理性"原则;对会计信息"重大事件"的确认应优先采用"投资者决策"标准,同时兼顾"股价重大影响"标准;对财务预测信息应设置"忠实表达警示文字原则";在认定会计信息虚假陈述因果关系时,应充分考虑会计信息披露的"提前效应";《1 9规定》第十九条第四款可具体界定为:证券市场系统风险、非系统风险(主要指行业风险)和投资者投机风险三项内容。     

浅议证券市场虚假陈述行为的界定

根据最高人民法院司法解释的规定,我国证券市场虚假陈述行为可分为虚假记载、误导性陈述、重大遗漏和不正当披露四种。此外,错误预测也应当被列为证券市场虚假陈述的重要形态之一。在界定证券市场虚假陈述行为时,必须采用"重大性"标准加以限制,并且应当统一采用"投资者决策"标准来判断"重大性"。     

会计信息虚假陈述重大事件研究述评

会计学、审计学、法学对会计信息虚假陈述重大事件的认定虽然侧重点有所不同，但基本的认定标准有二：即“投资者决策”标准和“股价重大影响”标准。在司法实践中，恰当的方式是将两种标准结合起来综合运用。认定的方式既可采用定义式，也可采用列举式，两者各有优缺点，因此应取长补短，两者并举。     

中国证券市场虚假陈述民事责任构成要件研究

虚假陈述民事责任是指证券市场信息披露义务人违反证券法律规定,在证券发行或者交易过程中,对证券发行、交易及相关活动中的重大事件作出违背事实真相的虚假记载、误导性陈述,或者在披露信息时发生重大遗漏、不正当披露信息的行为,侵犯了投资者合法权益,致使投资者在证券交易中遭受损失的,而应当承担的一种民事赔偿责任.它的构成要件主要有权利义务主体、主观(归责)方面、行为表现、损害事实、因果关系.     

虚假财务报告的识别与防范

虚假财务报告是指未能遵循财务报告标准，无意识或有意识地采用各种方式和手段，歪曲地反映企业某一特定日期的财务状况、成果和现金流量，对企业的财务活动情况做出不实陈述财务报告。虚假财务报告将误导信息使用者的决策，增加市场交易费用，破坏市场秩序。     

企业会计信息虚假陈述的形式与识别

会计信息虚假陈述是影响社会经济发展的顽疾，虚假记载、误争陡陈述、重大遗漏和不正当披露是会计信息虚假陈述的具体形式。我们应识别会计信息虚假陈述的特点及主要类型，掌握其判断标准，以便通过多种行之有效的途径和方法有效杜绝会计信息虚假陈述。     

上市公司虚假信息陈述与民事赔偿责任

完善上市公司虚假陈述的民事赔偿责任是确保中国资本市场健康、有序运行的迫切要求之一,上市公司虚假信息陈述从本质上讲是上市公司违反诚信义务的表现,它指上市公司或相关利益强势主体违反有关法律、法规规定的信息披露义务,在提交或公布的信息披露文件中作出不实、严重误导或含有重大遗漏的陈述或记载,进而损害投资者、债权人利益,扰乱证券市场正常秩序的一种违法行为。     

论上市公司财务预测的审计鉴证

财务预测是对未来经济事项的反映,是企业管理当局根据其计划及经营环境,对未来财务状况、经营成果和现金流量所作的最佳估计。财务预测信息的本质是其内在的不确定性,模糊性和风险性。财务预测审计具有明显区别于以历史信息为主体的财务报表审计的特点,注册会计师一般只对涉及重大事件的财务预测信息及财务预测信息编制的基本假设、编制基础、会计政策和方法进行审计。     

论证券市场虚假陈述的侵权责任

证券买卖决策取决于对购买的证券相关信息的了解程度。为了保护投资者合法权益,国家必须建立和完善虚假陈述侵权责任制度,强制发行人及其他相关人公开、及时、充分地披露重大信息。文章就证券市场虚假陈述侵权责任若干问题予以探讨,并提出有关完善建议。     

财务预测信息披露多层次管制探讨

在实施新准则的背景下,如何通过有效的财务预测信息披露管制提高财务预测信息的质量,是个非常值得研究的论题.本文从法律经济学的角度,详细分析了司法管制、公共管制和自律性管制这三个层次管制的特点,认为目前司法管制门槛过高、法律阻吓不充分是导致当前财务预测信息管制失灵的重要原因之一;而公共管制效率不高、自律性管制力度太弱也是其中的重要原因.为加强对财务预测信息的管制,我们应当结合财务预测信息的特点,不断加强相关法律法规特别是民事责任方面的法规建设,加强财务预测信息披露制度建设,明确各层次管制主体的责任,充分发挥各层次管制的制度优势,努力提高各层次管制的协调性.     

Life Satisfaction Dynamics with Quarterly Life Event Data*

Using life satisfaction responses from Australian panel data we examine the questions of when and to what extent individuals are affected by major positive and negative life events, including changes in financial situation, marital status, death of a close relative, and being the victim of crime. The key advantage of our data is that we are able to identify these events on a quarterly basis rather than on the yearly basis used by previous studies. We find evidence that life events are not randomly distributed, that individuals anticipate major events to a large extent, and that they fully adapt to many events within 12 months. The estimates can be used to calculate monetary values needed to compensate individuals for life events. Using a new valuation methodology that incorporates these dynamic factors produces considerably smaller compensation valuations than those calculated using the standard approach.     

US income taxation of new financial products

This paper discusses the response of the US federal income tax to financial innovation. Income taxation in the US and elsewhere has traditionally relied on distinctions, such as the difference between fixed and contingent returns, that can be undermined by new financial products. The principal tax law responses to innovative products have been: (1) transactional analysis, which aggregates or disaggregates new transactions to conform them to existing legal categories, (2) taxation of changes in market value, rather than realization events, (3) taxation based on an assumed formula, and (4) anti-avoidance administrative approaches.     

The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure

To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, we analyze the sources of mis-prediction. This reveals that ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast-period events, not determinable from in-sample information. The primary causes are unmodelled shifts in deterministic factors, rather than model mis-specification, collinearity, or a lack of parsimony. We examine the effects of deterministic breaks on equilibrium-correction mechanisms, and consider the role of causal variables. Throughout, Monte Carlo simulation and empirical models illustrate the analysis, and support a progressive research strategy based on learning from past failures.     

Volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets: a connectedness analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to May 2018. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.     

Entitling the Pollutee: Liability versus Standard under Private Information

This paper considers and compares two different legal means -- full liability and standard – to reduce and to regulate pollution at a local level accounting for private information about benefits and costs. The familiar polluter pays principle makes the polluter liable for any damage. Since the courts lack information about the true damage the pollutee can and presumably will overstate this damage. Nevertheless, voluntary arrangements bypassing the courts exist (e.g., for Coasean reasons). However, such out-of court arrangements fail to improve in many cases the inefficient allocation of pollution due to agency costs. Given these unsatisfactory consequences of the polluter pays principle even after allowing for contracts around the law, we propose a modification of standards: the pollutee is entitled that a certain standard is satisfied, yet can trade this right for financial compensations. Contracts induced by this legal rule are countervailing (the optimal mechanism switches between subsidies and payments and first best efficiency holds at both ends) and this characteristic allows such a privatized standard to track the first best quite well and (often) better than the polluter pays principle. This relative ranking under private information is the opposite of the one that holds under uncertainty (here liability dominates the standard).JEL classification: D62, D82     

ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL GOLD STANDARD IN PROPAGATING THE GREAT DEPRESSION

I do not claim in this paper that the international gold standard was a principal cause of the Great Depression. Instead, I explore the events that allowed the world to slip deeper into depression despite the gold standard. The volatility of international short-term capital flows surely contributed greatly to the Depression. I argue that this volatility was exacerbated—rather than ameliorated—by the international gold standard. The reason is that despite governments' legal assurances that they are committed to a gold standard, speculators never perceive the terms of gold parity as immutable. This statement holds with increasing force when one observes the precarious status of government debts and international finance during the 1920s. This reality renders a gold standard vulnerable to precisely the type of volatility in international capital markets that made the 1931 downturn more severe.     

Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of information. In exploring its causes, we investigated to what extent excessive volatility can be observed at the individual level. Economists claim that securities prices are forecasts of future outcomes. Here, we report on a simple experiment in which participants were rewarded to make the most accurate possible forecast of a canonical financial time series. We discovered excessive volatility in individual-level forecasts, paralleling the finding at the market level. Assuming that participants updated their beliefs based on reinforcement learning, we show that excess volatility emerged because of a combination of three factors. First, we found that submitted forecasts were noisy perturbations of participants’ revealed beliefs. Second, beliefs were updated using a prediction error based on submitted forecast rather than revealed past beliefs. Third, in updating beliefs, participants maladaptively decreased learning speed with prediction risk. Our results reveal formerly undocumented features in individual-level forecasting that may be critical to understand the inherent instability of financial markets and inform regulatory policy.     

Toward an Understanding of the Risky Choice Behavior of Professional Financial Analysts

Several studies have reported inefficiencies and/or biases in analysts' ability to incorporate new information into their earnings forecasts. We propose that an important psychological factor associated with optimistic earnings forecasts is the propensity of analysts to engage in risky choice behavior as described by prospect theory. Furthermore, the motivational incentives faced by analysts may exacerbate risky choice behavior during forecast revision, thereby magnifying overestimates of earnings.

Sixty professional financial analysts were asked to issue a first quarter and then an annual EPS forecast of a company. The analysts were randomly assigned to two initial forecast accuracy conditions that indicated their initial forecast earnings was 1) essentially the same as actual earnings, or 2) substantially higher than actual earnings. Analysts were also assigned to one of three motivational incentive conditions indicating the analyst and brokerage firm would 1) have no future contact with the forecast firm, 2) begin to follow the forecast firm, or 3) establish an underwriting relationship with the forecast firm.

The results indicate that analysts who perceived a loss function due to the inaccuracy of prior earnings forecasts tended to choose riskier prospects in subsequent forecast revisions than analysts who perceived their prior earnings forecasts to be accurate. These riskier prospects translate into greater overestimates of earnings. Furthermore, while the average risk attitude of the analysts was optimistic, higher levels of motivational incentives were associated with greater risk-seeking behavior by the analysts who perceive a loss function. It appears that the motivational incentives inherent in brokerage firms can exacerbate the risky choice behavior of financial analysts during forecast revision. These findings support the utility of incorporating both cognitive and motivational factors into the prediction of analyst behavior.     

Is Knowledge Cursed When Forecasting the Forecasts of Others?

Financial decision makers (lenders, insurers, advisees) often need to estimate how well others make decisions. Is knowledge a blessing or a curse when forecasting others' forecast accuracy? The authors show that this depends on its type. Within a single experimental setting, they identify and test 4 distinct information types that have different effects on forecast accuracy. First, the authors revisit the well-known “curse of knowledge” and show that it may have resulted from entirely arbitrary, uninformative anchors. Second, we show that in contrast, genuinely informative cues purged of anchoring potential enhance estimation accuracy. Third, richer, more detailed financial information has no effect even for participants better able to interpret it. Fourth, domain experts do not overimpute others' forecast ability. The authors conclude that in financial settings knowledge may be a blessing or a curse, or have no effect depending on its type.