How vulnerable is the Soviet economy?: The effectiveness of economic sanctions

The effect of trade embargoes as a measure of foreign policy can be unpredictable. Using a framework of game theory based on macro-economic model Sovmod I from the Stanford Research Institute, the efficacy of future US sanctions on the USSR is examined. The West cannot force the Soviet economy far off its preferred growth path, but it can put pressure on its trade deficit (and thus foreign exchange reserves). The best strategy for the USA is the selective encouragement of trade that implicitly carries the threat of embargo.     

Who Is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism?: Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

This paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a cross-sectional model stressing two major factors: conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development, as proxied by measures of corruption, is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of communist rule allows us to use years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.     

The USSR in the international division of labour up to the end of the 20th century

This article deals with the participation of the USSR in the international division of labour. It is concluded that the present export model of the country consisting of exports of raw materials (mainly energy) and intermediate products, is primarily due to the inability of the country to compete with the industrial, and especially the engineering products of the advanced countries in the world markets. This is due to the low technological and quality levels of the Soviet industry together with the existence of the richest mineral resources in the world within the USSR's boundaries. It is envisaged that within the time limits of this century, the export model of the country could be reformed substantially, under the condition that the new leadership of the USSR has the will and capability to perform radical, large-scale fundamental changes.     

Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions can lead to hundreds or even thousands of plausible future scenarios. Creating highly diverse but conceivable visions of the future in which to explore decision-making, exploratory futures techniques rely on the selection of a small number of plausible scenarios from the larger set. In this paper we describe a new method for finding maximally diverse sets containing a small number of plausible scenarios from a multi-dimensional morphological analysis. It is based on a mathematical optimization of diversity that is robust to the uncertainty in the framing of future factors and states and in what stakeholders might consider diverse combinations of those factors and states. We also describe implementation of the method as a software tool and its performance in recent exploratory scenario development by CGIAR and partners for regional environmental change, food security and livelihoods.     

Peru in the 21st century : Challenges and possibilities

The Peruvian 21st century study, initially conceived in 1981 and still going on, is a large programme consisting of several interlinked projects. Simulations have been done on the future of 10 key national sectors, and these simulations have then been integrated to produce scenarios describing alternative feasible futures. At the same time, a group of desired scenarios has been constructed using personal interviews and a consultation process. There has been initial work on a third project examining key external factors affecting Peruvian development. Still to be undertaken are projects identifying specific development strategies and analysing the national planning process. Especially noteworthy products of the study are the user-friendly spreadsheet models, which make the feasible futures component of the study highly accessible to interested decision makers.     

Dark Markets,by Darrell Duffie

This paper develops a method for selecting and analysing stress scenarios for financial risk assessment, with particular emphasis on identifying sensible combinations of stresses to multiple factors. We focus primarily on reverse stress testing – finding the most likely scenarios leading to losses exceeding a given threshold. We approach this problem using a nonparametric empirical likelihood estimator of the conditional mean of the underlying market factors given large losses. We then scale confidence regions for the conditional mean by a coefficient that depends on the tails of the market factors to estimate the most likely loss scenarios. We provide rigorous justification for the confidence regions and the scaling procedure when the joint distribution of the market factors and portfolio loss is elliptically contoured. We explicitly characterize the impact of the heaviness of the tails of the distribution, contrasting a broad spectrum of cases including exponential tails and regularly varying tails. The key to this analysis lies in the asymptotics of the conditional variances and covariances in extremes. These results also lead to asymptotics for marginal expected shortfall and the corresponding variance, conditional on a market stress; we combine these results with empirical likelihood significance tests of systemic risk rankings based on marginal expected shortfall in stress scenarios.     

Scientific and technical change in the USSR

The rapid development ot science and technology, a historical Soviet goal, would bring radical changes—for which the leadership may be unprepared. The complex programme, an ambitious forecast and plan for the period 1980–2000, is nearing completion. Its measures are designed to relieve a potential labour shortage, to ensure energy and resource supplies, to increase agricultural productivity, and to raise living standards. Success depends on major structural changes, which in turn require the adoption of more flexible organisation, the extension of planning horizons beyond the traditional five-year term, and the acceleration of technical innovation. There is considerable scope for international collaboration and the creative potential of the Soviet economy should not be underestimated.     

维果茨基心理发展理论对素质教育的启示

维果茨基是前苏联著名的心理学家,其所创立的心理发展理论和历史文化理论对心理学、教育学和实践的发展具有极其重要的影响.本文在简述维果茨基心理发展理论的基础上,探讨了其对我国当前素质教育进一步开展的意义.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.     

Social and technological forecasting in the Soviet Union

Futures research is now an accepted part of the Soviet planning and control system. Soviet forecasting methods are similar to Western methods, differing chiefly in a greater insistence that complex methods are no substitute for a substantive understanding of the problem. Soviet methodological innovations are worth watching for, however. Actual forecasts are often not published, but the Soviet vision of the future is fairly clear. Key events will include the disappearance of capitalism and the achievement of controlled fusion. Despite its prominence, Soviet futures research has a somewhat uncertain future; further growth will depend both on its own achievements and on any realignment of official policy which may come with the inevitable leadership changes in the Kremlin.     

5G与金融的融合路径与应用场景研究

作为当前信息基础设施的核心引领技术,5G对于推进经济社会高质量发展、建设网络强国和数字中国、打造智慧社会具有重要战略意义。作为与信息技术结合最紧密的行业之一,金融行业数字化转型同样需要5G技术的支持。本文在总结不同阶段移动通信技术与金融行业的融合发展特征的基础上,重点解析了“5G+金融”应用发展路径和作用模式,并结合银行、证券、保险三大金融领域的经营详细解析可落地的应用场景。最后提出5G在金融领域应用面临的挑战,并提出推动5G相关应用场景落地的对策建议。     

New Risk-Based Capital Standards in the European Union: A Proposal Based on Empirical Data

In response to criticism concerning the current solvency system, the European Commission is developing new rules for insurance companies operating in the member states of the European Union (EU). Under this so-called Solvency II concept, an insurer is allowed to verify its solvency by using an internal risk management model previously approved by the regulatory authority. In this article we develop such an internal risk management approach for property-liability insurers that is based on dynamic financial analysis (DFA). The proposed concept uses a simulation technique and models the central risk factors from the investment and underwriting areas of an insurance company. On the basis of the data provided by a German insurer, the ruin probabilities under different scenarios and varying planning horizons are calculated.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region

In this paper, three scenarios for the metropolitan region of Hamburg within the next 30 years are presented. The scenarios are based on an assessment of decisions, opportunities and bottlenecks faced by the region in the areas of economic restructuring, demographic and societal changes, city-development and environmental changes. Many core questions that the region is dealing with are representative for Western European cities and highly industrialised regions worldwide. Accordingly, insights gained about strategies and future possibilities for the study region may be of use to other metropolitan regions. Extensive expert interviews were combined with a comparative analysis of the strong and weak points in the development of Hamburg and other big cities to identify trends and critical and strategic success factors. It is argued that economic, political, societal and environmental processes evolve in close interdependency and need to be treated in conjunction. A central question in this context is the meaning of radically different routes of port development—expansion, re-orientation and discontinuation—for the city's economy, the region's environment and socio-cultural renewal. Beneficial outcomes for quality of life, economic development and environmental state are generally found to depend on a combination of economic, societal and political requirements.     

Insurance Protection Funds in the European Union—Quo Vadis?

Contrary to the development in other major insurance markets in the world only 13 out of 27 EU member states have introduced until now some type of insurance protection funds (IPF). As a result around a third of the market is without any collective protection. There is also a continuous debate since 2001 among the member states on the need for such a system at the community level. The experiences of the latest financial crisis have raised new arguments for reorganizing the existing system to avoid regulatory arbitrage and to strengthen consumer security. Even the prospective implementation of provisions strengthening supervisory bodies, and the new solvency directive (so‐called Solvency II) are not fail‐safe solutions. This article is an attempt to review the current situation as regards IPF in the EU and to discuss possible development scenarios.     

The Soviet Economic Decline

Soviet growth from 1960 to 1989 was the worst in the world afterwe control for investment and human capital; the relative performanceworsens over time. There is some evidence that the burden ofdefense spending modestly contributed to the Soviet debacle.The declining Soviet growth rate from 1950 to 1987 can be accountedfor by a declining marginal product of capital with a constantrate of growth of total factor productivity. The Soviet relianceon extensive growth (rising capital-to-out-put ratios) was nogreater than that of market economies, such as Japan and theRepublic of Korea, but a low elasticity of substitution betweencapital and labor implied especially acute diminishing returnsto capital compared with the case in market economies.     

Australian futures: Freshwater ecosystems and human water usage

Historical legacies of land-use change together with growing demands for water resources from agricultural, industrial and urban sectors have extensively degraded many of the freshwater ecosystems of Australia. Recent and rapid declines in the condition of these ecosystems indicate that current patterns of water consumption are ecologically unsustainable, particularly in agricultural landscapes. We use three scenarios of water resource use and development over the next 50 years to examine the implications of each in terms of their likely impact on freshwater ecosystems. These scenarios encompass agricultural, industrial and urban water use, and propose trends in water use and management rather than a specific set of predictions. We see two of these scenarios, those of business-as-usual and economic growth, as being ecologically unsustainable, leading to significant declines in the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Only under our ecological-sustainability scenario do we foresee possible large-scale improvements in the condition of Australia's aquatic ecosystems. This scenario will require major shifts in water use patterns and require careful planning and consideration of a range of social and economic issues. In all scenarios large-scale ecosystem drivers, such as climate change and salinity, will become major impediments to improvements in the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems.     

Functions of scenarios in transition processes

Given the interplaying tendencies of economic decline, social instability, and environmental depletion, any transition towards sustainable development faces a challenging task. To successfully cope with this complexity requires transition management. Integrated approaches for supporting sustainability transitions have been elaborated in the last years. Future studies and scenario construction are regarded as essential components in these approaches. However, the related studies in this field have focused either on a specific type of transition process, or on decision support in a different contextual process, or on a specific function of scenarios. Thus, an evaluation of the wide range of viewpoints on the functions of scenarios with respect to the requirements for transition management is still missing. In this paper, we systematically elaborate upon the functions for transition management that scenarios can fulfil. The developed concept is applied to five empirical scenario studies supporting transition processes on the national, regional and local level in Switzerland. The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process.     

Computerised detection and stochastic forecast of age, period and cohort effects

In this study, we adapt and apply suitable methods of image processing and computer vision to actuarial science. In particular, we design a multistage algorithm based on the well known Canny operator with a view to detecting abrupt changes in incremental mortality development factors by age over time. These edges indicate the boundaries between areas of higher and lower mortality improvements. The computerised detection algorithm allows for a more objective judgement concerning the existence of specific mortality patterns. Furthermore, we propose a stochastic mortality forecast model that may be viewed as a Lévy process. First, objectively identified mortality patterns are removed from the matrix of mortality improvement rates. We then forecast residual mortality development factors by applying a non-parametric block bootstrap simulation. Finally, future age, period and cohort effects are superimposed on a simulation basis. Notably, our stochastic mortality model is capable of incorporating specific stress scenarios such as mortality shocks.     

City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”.Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.