Dynamic interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps in BRICS and MIST countries

This article examines the interactions of emerging markets sovereign credit default swaps (CDS). Using a generalized vector autoregressive framework and principal component analysis, we find significant spillover effects within the two groups of emerging markets under study. Using the principal component analysis, we show that global financial market factors are important drivers of BRICS and MIST sovereign CDS spreads variability. Focusing on the forecast error variance decomposition, most of the spillover effects are documented among the emerging markets CDS. Brazil and Mexico contribute the largest net directional spillovers to the other emerging markets studied.

Highlights:

• There exist significant CDS spillover effects for MIST and BRICS countries.

• Mexico dominates the spillover effects within the MIST group while Brazil dominates the spillover effects within the BRICS group.

• As determined by principal component analysis, global financial market factors are important drivers of BRICS and MIST sovereign CDS spreads variability.

• There exists a relatively small net directional spillover from global financial market factors to the countries under study; however, the total spillover is time-varying.

• A large proportion of the forecast error variance in the markets studied comes from spillovers.

     

Constructing Clinical Use: An Activity-Theoretical Perspective on Implementing New Technology

Abstract

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on:

• (1)?Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.

• (2)?Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders.

• (3)?Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy.

• (4)?Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

• (5)?Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.

• (6)?Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.

The relationship between these functions and the tensions that can arise when a Foresight exercise attempts to address more than one function are discussed. Possible approaches for Foresight practice to better achieve the targeted impact on policy-making are outlined and emerging guidelines for improving Foresight practice are presented.     

Empirical Regularities of Financial Market Volatility and Good Modelling Process: Developing Countries’ Exchange Rate Markets Perspective

A survey of contemporary literature suggests that empirical studies on developing economies are few or almost non-existent. Engle and Patton (2001, What good is a volatility model. Quantitative Finance, 1, 237–245) as well as Poon (2005, A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility. New Jersey: Wiley.) suggest that a good volatility model is one that utilizes the empirical regularities of financial market volatility (of which most were observed on industrialized economies markets). This paper uses exchange rate series from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to show that;

1. they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;

2. the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.

     

Cost effectiveness and impact on quality of life of abobotulinumtoxinA and onabotulinumtoxinA in the treatment of children with lower limb spasticity in Canada

Abstract

Background: Injectable botulinum neurotoxins are a mainstay of treatment for pediatric spasticity. AbobotulinumtoxinA and onabotulinumtoxinA are both injectable toxin therapies used to treat pediatric lower limb (PLL) spasticity in Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of abobotulinumtoxinA vs. onabotulinumtoxinA in the treatment of PLL spasticity in Canada.

Methods: A probabilistic Markov cohort model with a 2-year time horizon was developed, with health states defined by response to therapy, as characterized by the goal attainment scale (GAS). Based on randomized controlled trial evidence, response to therapy was similar or higher for abobotulinumtoxinA relative to onabotulinumtoxinA; uncertainty was incorporated into model parameters, however, as the two therapies have not been compared head-to-head. Canadian resource use and cost data were incorporated.

Results: In the base case, abobotulinumtoxinA generated 1.48 quality-adjusted life years over the model time horizon, compared to 1.47 for onabotulinumtoxinA. AbobotulinumtoxinA was associated with cost savings of $123 CAD, reflecting lower costs in both medication acquisition and health services. The estimated improvement to quality of life and reduced costs result in an estimate of economic dominance for abobotulinumtoxinA over onabotulinumtoxinA. This dominant result persisted across probabilistic and scenario analyses.

• Key points for decision makers

• Based on a review of available clinical evidence, abobotulinumtoxinA was found to have significant and/or numerical efficacy benefits to onabotulinumtoxinA on functional outcomes (Goal Attainment Scale) and tone (Modified Ashworth Scale) and in the treatment of pediatric lower limb spasticity

• In this cost-effectiveness analysis, abobotulinumtoxinA was found to be associated with greater quality-adjusted life years and lower costs than onabotulinumtoxinA (economically dominant)

• A limitation of this analysis was the uncertainty around key parameters. Specifically, the lack of head-to-head comparison data for the two therapies, and variable data regarding likely onabotulinumtoxinA dosing in PLL in clinical practice. However, across a range of plausible scenarios, the economic dominant result remained.

     

Cost-effectiveness of stent-retriever thrombectomy in combination with IV t-PA compared with IV t-PA alone for acute ischemic stroke in the UK

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of neurothrombectomy with a stent retriever (Solitaire**Solitaire Revascularization Device is a registered trademark of Medtronic (Irvine, CA).View all notes Revascularization Device) in treating acute ischemic stroke patients from the UK healthcare provider perspective.

Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate health outcomes and costs of two therapies over a lifetime time horizon: stent-retriever thrombectomy in combination with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator (IV t-PA), and IV t-PA alone. The model incorporated an acute phase (0–90 days) and a rest of life phase (90+ days). Health states were defined by the modified Rankin Scale score. During the rest of life phase, patients remained in the same health state until a recurrent stroke or death. Clinical effectiveness and safety data were taken from the SWIFT PRIME study. Resource use and health state utilities were informed by published data.

Results: Combined stent-retriever thrombectomy and IV t-PA led to improved quality-of-life and increased life expectancy compared to IV t-PA alone. The higher treatment costs associated with the use of stent-retriever thrombectomy were offset by long-term cost savings due to improved patient health status, leading to overall cost savings of £33 190 per patient and a net benefit of £79 402. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the results were robust to a wide range of parameter inputs.

Limitations: The acute and long-term costs resource use data were taken from a study based on a patient population that was older and may have had additional comorbidities than the SWIFT PRIME population, resulting in costs that may not be representative of the cohort within this model. In addition, the estimates may not reflect stroke care today as no current evidence is available; however, the cost estimates were deemed reasonable by clinical opinion.

Conclusions: Combined stent-retriever neurothrombectomy and IV t-PA is a cost-effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke compared with IV t-PA alone.     

Length of stay and hospitalization costs for patients undergoing lung surgery with Progel pleural air leak sealant

Aim: Progel Pleural Air Leak Sealant (Progel) is currently the only sealant approved by the FDA for the treatment of air leaks during lung surgery. This study was performed to determine whether Progel use improves hospital length of stay (LOS) and hospitalization costs compared with other synthetic/fibrin sealants in patients undergoing lung surgery.

Methods: The US Premier hospital database was used to identify lung surgery discharges from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2015. Eligible discharges were categorized as “Progel Sealant” or “other sealants” using hospital billing data. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to control for hospital and patient differences between study groups. Primary outcomes were hospital LOS and all-cause hospitalization costs. Clinical outcomes, hospital re-admissions, and sealant product use were also described.

Results: After PSM, a total of 2,670 discharges were included in each study group; baseline characteristics were balanced between groups. The hospital LOS (mean days?±?standard deviation, median) was significantly shorter for the Progel group (9.9?±?9.6, 7.0) compared with the other sealants group (11.3?±?12.8, 8.0; p?<?.001). Patients receiving Progel incurred significantly lower all-cause hospitalization costs ($31,954?±?$29,696, $23,904) compared with patients receiving other sealants ($36,147?±?$42,888, $24,702; p?<?.001).

Limitations: It is not possible to say that sealant type alone was responsible for the findings of this study, and analysis was restricted to the data available in the Premier database.

Conclusions: Among hospital discharges for lung surgery, Progel use was associated with significantly shorter hospital LOS and lower hospitalization costs compared with other synthetic/fibrin sealants, without compromising clinical outcomes.     

Work Hours and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from U.S. Households

The degrowth movement proposes worktime reduction policies to help high-income countries meet their climate goals while supporting full employment. However, the work hours elasticity of carbon emissions remains uncertain despite a growing number of empirical analyses. This paper estimates the impact of work hours on emissions using household data from the United States. We calculate the carbon intensity of goods using input-output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which we combine with spending data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate carbon footprints for a representative sample of U.S. households. There is strong evidence that households with longer work hours emit more CO₂, but our household-level estimate of the work hours elasticity of carbon emissions is lower than most country-level estimates. Our results suggest that differences in work hours account for a small fraction of differences in per capita carbon footprints across high-income countries.

Highlights

• Households with longer work hours have significantly larger carbon footprints.

• Our estimated household-level work hours elasticity is smaller than most country-level estimates.

• Work hour reduction policies likely generate modest reductions in carbon emissions.

     

Cost effectiveness analysis of a next generation risk assessment score for cardiovascular disease

Objectives:

The goal of this study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of MIRISK VP, a next generation coronary heart disease risk assessment score, in correctly reclassifying and appropriately treating asymptomatic, intermediate risk patients.

Study design:

A Markov model was employed with simulated subjects based on the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). This study evaluated three treatment strategies: (i) practice at MESA enrollment, (ii) current guidelines, and (iii) MIRISK VP in MESA.

Methods:

The model assessed patient healthcare costs and outcomes, expressed in terms of life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), over the lifetime of the cohort from the provider and payer perspective. A total of 50,000 hypothetical individuals were used in the model. A sensitivity analysis was conducted (based on the various input parameters) for the entire cohort and also for individuals aged 65 and older.

Results:

Guiding treatment with MIRISK VP leads to the highest net monetary benefits when compared to the ‘Practice at MESA Enrollment’ or to the ‘Current Guidelines’ strategies. MIRISK VP resulted in a lower mortality rate from any CHD event and a modest increase in QALY of 0.12–0.17 years compared to the other two approaches.

Limitations:

This study has limitations of not comparing performance against strategies other than the FRS, the results are simulated as with all models, the model does not incorporate indirect healthcare costs, and the impact of patient or physician behaviors on outcomes were not taken into account.

Conclusions:

MIRISK VP has the potential to improve patient outcomes compared to the alternative strategies. It is marginally more costly than both the ‘Practice at MESA Enrollment’ and the ‘Current Guidelines’ strategies, but it provides increased effectiveness, which leads to positive net monetary benefits over either strategy.     

Economic outcomes of sequences which include monoclonal antibodies against vascular endothelial growth factor and/or epidermal growth factor receptor for the treatment of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer

Background:

Patients with unresectable, metastatic colorectal cancer with wild type Kirsten ras mutational status are eligible for sequential treatments which include monoclonal antibodies as first line (1L), second line (2L), or third line (3L) regimens.

Objective:

To compare the economic outcomes of different sequences which include monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

Methods:

Individual drug regimens for 1L, 2L, and 3L treatments were compiled according to the clinical studies in the Summary of Product Characteristics for monoclonal antibodies. They were combined into plausible treatment sequences. Health outcomes were approximated using additive median PFS benefit, and economic outcomes were calculated with a treatment sequencing costing tool. Limitations of the analysis include the clinical trial data sources, cost assumptions, and the additive PFS approach.

Results:

Seventeen sequences were evaluated. Results of the analysis show that sequences including 1L anti-EGFRs generally have relatively low-to-medium health outcomes at the highest comparative sequence costs compared to sequences including 2L anti-EGFRs, which have lower health outcomes at the lowest cost. Sequences including 3L anti-EGFRs (sequential bevazicumab-based 1L and 2L) have the highest health outcomes, with potential cost savings of €5972–€11,676 if replacing 2L anti-EGFRs or an additional cost of €5909–€12,708 if replacing 1L anti-EGFR regimens.

Conclusion:

Clinical sequences consisting of 1L and 2L line bevacizumab followed by 3L anti-EGFR potentially yield the greatest health outcomes associated with a reasonable trade-off in additional cost when replacing 1L anti-EGFRs and are potentially cost-saving if replacing 2L anti-EGFRs, per patient per lifetime. To maximize health outcomes, optimal sequences include anti-EGFRs as 3L regimen, with an approximately equivalent trade-off in costs between the most costly (anti-EGFR 2L) and least costly (anti-EGFR 1L) sequences.     

Economic evaluation of tocilizumab combination in the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis in Italy

Abstract

Objective:

This study was designed to evaluate the cost utility of tocilizumab in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, with inadequate responses to traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (tDMARDs) from a payer’s perspective in Italy.

Methods:

An individual patient simulation model was used to project lifetime medical costs (payer’s perspective) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Treatment sequences starting with tocilizumab or the most commonly prescribed biologics (etanercept, adalimumab, or infliximab) were compared. The addition of tocilizumab to standard of care, without the replacement of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α treatments, was also evaluated. Patient characteristics, treatment efficacy, and quality-of-life data were based on three phase 3 tocilizumab clinical trials (TOcilizumab Pivotal Trial in Methotrexate Inadequate respONders [OPTION], Tocilizumab in cOmbination With traditional DMARD therapy [TOWARD], and TociLIzumab Safety and THE Prevention of Structural Joint Damage [LITHE]). Mixed-treatment comparison was used to estimate response probabilities. Resource utilization, treatment acquisition, administration, and monitoring costs were estimated using Italian secondary sources. Uncertainty in model parameters was evaluated by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Results:

Replacement of anti-TNF-α treatments with tocilizumab reduced total costs over a patient’s lifetime (base-case analysis: tocilizumab sequence, €141,100 vs standard of care sequence, €143,500). Patients receiving tocilizumab realized more QALYs than patients receiving standard of care (9.8881 vs 9.3502 QALYs). Therefore, according to the base-case analysis, the tocilizumab sequence dominated the standard of care. In a sensitivity analysis, the model base-case result was robust to input changes. When tocilizumab was added to standard of care, without replacing anti-TNF-α treatments, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €17,100 per QALY.

Conclusion:

The analysis demonstrates that, in Italy, replacing another biologic DMARD with tocilizumab or adding tocilizumab to the current standard of care is a cost-effective strategy in the treatment of RA patients with inadequate responses to tDMARDs.     

Burden of illness: direct and indirect costs among persons with hemophilia A in the United States

Abstract

Objective:

To examine the direct and indirect costs of hemophilia care among persons with hemophilia A in the US.     

Utilities for asthma and COPD according to category of severity: a comprehensive literature review

Abstract

Background:

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are incurable diseases that impact quality-of-life.     

Costs and absence of HCV-infected employees by disease stage

Abstract

Objectives:

Quantify the costs and absenteeism associated with stages of the Hepatitis C virus (HCV).     

Cost effectiveness of paliperidone palmitate versus oral antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia and a history of criminal justice involvement

Abstract

Objective:

Conduct a cost effectiveness analysis for the Paliperidone palmitate Research In Demonstrating Effectiveness (PRIDE) trial.     

Essential medicine policy in China: pros and cons

Abstract

Objective:

To analyze the achievements, issues and policy recommendations for implementing essential medicine system in China after a 3-year effort.     

The prevalence of complications and healthcare costs during pregnancy

Abstract

Objective:

To study the economic burden of pregnancy in the US, common complications during pregnancy, and the incremental costs attributable to these complications.     

The effect of age and sex on cost of inpatient facility encounters among patients with multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Objective:

To explore the effect of age and sex on cost of all-cause and multiple sclerosis (MS)-related inpatient facility encounters.     

Factors associated with adherence to phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension

Abstract

Objectives:

To assess factors associated with adherence to phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors (PDE5Is) in the management of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).