关于我国流动性过剩问题的研究

本文从"流动性"最初始的概念出发,从宏观和微观两个层面考察了中国经济市场流动性过剩的原因及其影响,并提出了相应的政策建议,包括加强宏观调控,实行稳定的汇率政策等,进而降低我国的流动性,有效促进经济增长.     

我国商业银行流动性过剩的成因、负效应及共同治理

流动过剩分为宏观层面流动性过剩和银行体系流动性过剩,该文研究了商业银行体系的流动性过剩问题。在对商业银行流动性过剩的程度进行定量研究的基础之上,从商业银行自身层面以及双顺差、高储蓄、全球流动性过剩等外部视角分析了其产生的综合原因,并分析了商行流动性过剩对于商业银行、货币政策效应与经济和谐发展的效应。最后从商业银行、中央银行以及政府共同治理的视角,提出了治理商业银行流动性过剩的建议。     

浅析商业银行流动性过剩问题

我国商业银行"存差"规模过大,导致商业银行流动性过剩问题引起社会的广泛关注.历史数据表明,我国商业银行当前流动性严重过剩,流动性过剩形成的原因较为复杂,其原因不仅有宏观经济环境层面的因素,还有微观层面的因素,最后从汇率制度改革、宏观金融环境的改善、商业银行业务改进等方面提出了克服流动性过剩的几点政策建议.     

流动性过剩、贸易信贷与持续贸易顺差——基于中国货币政策影响贸易收支渠道的经验研究

文章针对经典理论不能解释的中国"流动性过剩的情况下还能产生持续贸易顺差"现象,将贸易信贷纳入货币政策传导机制分析框架,通过实证检验证明中国货币供给影响贸易收支的通道主要是"贸易信贷"以及"通过汇率影响贸易信贷".借此给出了我国"流动性过剩条件下产生贸易顺差之谜"的一个解释,强调紧缩性货币政策和人民币升值的汇率政策有助于消除内外均衡冲突.     

货币流动性与经济增长:时变影响及门限效应

通过构建时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)和反映流动性过剩与否两种状态的门限回归模型,考察了货币流动性对经济增长的时变影响,并从货币流动性的供给渠道出发,具体分析了外汇占款及信贷规模对经济产出的影响变化。结合中国1996年至2018年的季度数据,实证研究发现,样本期内M2、国内信贷以及外汇占款对经济增长的影响具有明显的时变特征,对经济产出的影响随时间变化存在结构性变动和显著的单门限效应;在受到外部冲击时,各流动性变量对经济的促进作用和实际GDP的响应程度明显减弱;经济产出对货币流动性具有长期的正向影响,并且受资本边际报酬递减规律支配,对M2及国内信贷的影响呈现出"V"型时变特征;经济货币化程度较低时,货币流动性对经济增长影响显著为正,超出一定阈值后影响减弱且不再显著。     

财政政策与货币政策联手共同应对流动性过剩

我国目前正面临市场流动性过剩这一难题的困扰,如何化解流动性过剩成为宏观调控的重要任务。文章从多个角度衡量了流动性过剩的程度,以便为治理流动性过剩提供数量上的依据,并提出"适度从紧"的货币政策与"中性偏松、注重结构调整"的稳健财政政策的相互配合是抑制流动性过剩的有益尝试。     

商业银行信贷资金流动性过剩机理与实证研究

2002年以来,商业银行信贷资金流动性过剩问题凸现.本文从商业银行角度出发,在对流动性过剩形成机理的理论分析基础上,运用2001-2007午的月度数据,对流动性过剩与其影响因素进行了实证研究.结果显示:外汇储备增长率和储蓄存款增长率对银行存差增长率都具有显著的正面效应,外汇储备和储蓄存款的不断增加成为促进银行存差不断扩大的重要因素;而股票市价总值增长率与银行存差增长率存在着负向的相关关系,股票市场的发展有利于缩小银行存差.在此基础上,本文就应对商业银行信贷资金流动性过剩问题提出了相应的政策建议.     

中国商业银行流动性过剩问题研究

近年来,中国商业银行信贷资金流动性过剩问题凸显。流动性过剩不仅导致资产价格激增和银行间过度竞争,而且影响着国家的宏观调控政策效果。通过对中国商业银行流动性过剩现状、成因分析,从转变银行经营理念和金融市场体系改革等方面给出建议。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩成因的实证研究

商业银行体系流动性过剩不仅影响到商业银行的信贷和资金等多项业务以及商业银行的资产负债管理,对于商业银行经营的安全性和盈利性均有着举足轻重的影响。对于以商业银行为主体实行分业经营体制和资金融通的我国来说,流动性过剩也会对经济的发展和人民生活带来非常不利的影响。本文分析了流动性过剩产生的原因并利用协整方法及误差修正模型对其进行实证分析,最后得出结论并提出相应的政策建议。     

浅析商业银行流动性过剩的影响

当前,随着经济不断发展和社会变革的加快,发生着许多令人疑惑的经济金融现象。商业银行流动性过剩就是其中之一。上世纪90年代末以前,受体制性的信贷膨胀及信贷资产质量影响,而产生了流动性     

Liquidity default,liquidity management and smooth dividends policy

Our article models liquidity financing constraints with the real options framework. By conducting a comprehensive investigation of the effects of shocks to liquidity constraints on the firm’s optimal investment, financing and dividend policies, our model highlights the importance of liquidity management and extends the liquidity management approach to hedge liquidity default risk. We find that being concerned about liquidity default risk will significantly change a firm’s behaviours, including those related to investment and the optimal capital structure. A firm that is concerned about its liquidity default risk will become more cautious: it will choose to delay investment and have higher leverage when internal liquidity is very low, but choose earlier investment and lower leverage when liquidity is high enough. The dividends policy can alleviate risks from both the external market and internal project volatility and provides an alternative explanation for the ‘smooth dividends policy puzzle’ commonly reported in empirical research.     

Financing Channels and Monetary Policy in a Dual Banking System: Evidence from Islamic Banks in Indonesia

Using Indonesian Islamic banking data from 2003 to 2014, this article employs a panel regression methodology to investigate the responses of Islamic banks to changes in financing rates and monetary policy, which may differ depending on their characteristics. The results suggest that the financing rate has a negative impact on financing at Islamic banks, while bank‐specific characteristics have a positive influence on it. The size and amount of capital have a greater impact than liquidity on financing at Islamic banks. However, changes in monetary policy are insignificant on bank financing, which implies that the transmission of monetary policy through the Islamic segment of the banking sector is weak. Furthermore, the weak impact of monetary policy on bank financing can be explained by the dramatic expansion of Islamic banks during the sample period, which contributed to a substantial increase in deposit growth and a high liquidity position.     

Monetary–fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions

I develop a tractable macro model with endogenous asset liquidity to understand monetary–fiscal interactions with liquidity frictions. Agents face idiosyncratic investment risks and meet financial intermediaries in competitive search markets. Asset liquidity is determined by the search friction and the cost of operating the financial intermediaries, and it drives the financing constraints of entrepreneurs (those who have investment projects) and their ability to invest. In contrast to private assets, government bonds are fully liquid and can be accumulated in anticipation of future opportunities to invest. A higher level of real government debt enhances the liquidity of entrepreneurs׳ portfolios and raises investment. However, the issuance of debt also raises the cost of financing government expenditures: a higher level of distortionary taxation and/or a higher real interest rate. A long-run optimal supply of government debt emerges. I also show that a proper mix of monetary and fiscal policies can avoid a deep financial recession.     

Are remittances an instrument of stabilization and funding in the euro area?

In this study, we explore the specific question of the counter cyclicality of remittances in the euro area, namely, if they could be used to stabilize the business cycle and as an additional source of external financing. This research uses data for 13 euro area countries in the period 2004–2013. For whole of the sample, our two hypotheses concerning stabilization and external financing are rejected, but Lithuania and Greece are outliers. Remittances seem to have had a macroeconomic stabilizing effect on Lithuania and to have mitigated in part the liquidity problems that Greece has faced since the sovereign debt crisis.     

信用风险、信息与协调

金融机构的短期债券同时被大小两种债权人持有。信用风险由流动性不足风险和破产风险组成。我们建立了一个同时包含大小两种债权人的模型来研究大的债权人、短期债券比例与市场流动性如何影响信用风险。模型的结果显示:(1)提高大的债权人的信息准确度可以让小的债权人更愿意继续借贷,因此降低了流动性不足风险;(2)短期债券比例的提高会增加流动性不足风险,也就增加了总的信用风险;(3)市场流动性越强,流动性不足风险就越小。     

上市公司股票流动性对企业创新的促进作用*

本文利用A股上市公司的交易数据和财务数据，通过多种匹配分析方法控制企业的异质性，分析了股票流动性对企业创新的影响。本文研究发现股票流动性好的企业其创新能力更强。融资融券业务提升股票流动性但是不影响企业创新活动，基于融资融券业务的拟自然实验分析发现流动性改善有利于企业扩大研发投资规模，提高创新能力。股票流动性促进企业创新的作用机制包括提高融资规模以及提高机构持股比例。本文为通过发展资本市场促进企业创新提供了经验证据。     

Bank-lending channel and non-financial firms: evidence for Spain

During the 1990s, liquidity was relatively abundant in the European Union and the European central banks mostly developed a relaxed monetary policy. While the bank lending channel view of the monetary policy would have suggested an increase in loans to firms in this context, the demand for bank corporate lending, however, slowed down, suggesting that monetary policy was not effective in this area. This article analyses how the financing behaviour of Spanish firms during 1992–2003 is related to their liquidity holdings and how this relationship may affect the effectiveness of the bank lending channel. The empirical evidence provided suggests that firms holding high liquid assets may replace bank lending by other sources of financing. Hence, higher liquidity holdings allow firms to invest in attractive investment projects in the event of a tightening of monetary conditions.      

The financial status of the Social Security and Medicare programs (1990)

To summarize the major points I have covered: The Social Security and Medicare trust funds are carefully held and monitored by three five member boards of trustees, and each board has two members who represent the public's interest. The combined Social Security trust funds are well financed for many years into the future; however, there is reason to monitor the financing for the disability insurance trust fund; and actions will in all likelihood ultimately be required to assure the long-term financial integrity of the combined OASDI programs over the next 75 years. The Medicare trust funds are adequately financed for the short term; however, the HI program faces serious mid- and long-range financing problems that must be addressed. As a result, there is a strong need for Congress to take remedial action to improve the financing and provide an adequate contingency reserve for the program.     

Government Expenditure Financing in a Two‐Sector Cash‐In‐Advance Model of Endogenous Growth

We show that an expansion in the government size could be desirable from the viewpoint of the economy's long‐run growth, wherein factor intensity between the sectors, the mode of public spending financing, and the form of the cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraint are crucial. We also show that when real balances are required only for consumption purchases, money financing is equivalent to consumption tax financing, but is not equivalent to income tax financing. If both consumption and gross investment are liquidity‐constrained, then the three financing methods are mutually not equivalent. The optimal financing scheme has the following features: (1) when the CIA constraint applies only to consumption purchases, any combination of the money growth rate and the consumption tax rate that satisfies the government budget constraint constitutes an optimal financing mix; (2) when the CIA constraint applies to both consumption and investment purchases, consumption tax financing only is optimal.     

Sudden stops, financial frictions, and labor market flows: Evidence from Latin America

While the aggregate effects of sudden stops and international financial crises are well known, the disaggregated channels through which they work are not well explored yet. In this paper, using job flows from a sectoral panel dataset for four Latin American countries, we find that sudden stops are characterized as periods of lower job creation and increased job destruction. Moreover, these effects are heterogeneous across sectors: we find that when a sudden stop occurs, sectors with higher dependence on external financing experience lower job creation. In turn, sectors with higher liquidity needs experience significantly larger job destruction. This evidence is consistent with the idea that dependence on external financing affects mainly the creation margin and that exposure to liquidity conditions affects mainly the destruction margin. Overall, our results provide evidence of financial frictions being an important transmission channel of sudden stops and in the restructuring process in general.