Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Domestic currency appreciation and foreign capital inflows: What comes first? (Chile, 1977–1982)

The purpose of this paper is to find (Granger) causality relations between the real exchange rate, the inflow of foreign capital, interest rate arbitrage, and the terms of trade, in a representative indebted, developing country Chilé. This is done for a time period in which Chile went from an unprecedented expansion (1977–1981) to a severe recession (1982). The paper confronts two competing hypotheses that purport to explain such behavior. Hypothesis one claims that causality went from the real exchange rate (affected by nominal exchange rate policy) to capital inflows, in what could be termed a current-account–deficit-induced demand for foreign funds. Hypothesis two posits a causality that ran the other way—from capital inflows to the real exchange rate—in which case the ‘exogenous’ inflows of foreign money implied a current account deficit. Special attention is paid to the role played by two other related factors, interest rate arbitrage and terms of trade variations. By applying innovation accounting techniques based on estimated vector autoregressions, support is found for the second of these hypotheses. Thus, the real issue—in Chile and in many other currently indebted Latin American countries—should be the timing and extent of the capital account liberalization process carried out during the period.     

The interest group theory of financial development: Evidence from regulation

We use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade, capital account, product market, and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test Rajan and Zingales’s (2003) interest group theory of financial development. In line with the theory, we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization. This result is robust to the use of different data frequencies (annual, 5-year intervals), estimation methods (OLS, 2SLS, system GMM) and a check for non-linear effects. However, in contrast to the theory, we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization.     

全球金融周期与跨境资本流动

本文从全球42个主要的股票市场指数提取全球股票市场因子,作为全球金融周期的代理变量,考察全球金融周期对跨境资本总流入的影响。结果发现:(1)当全球股票市场因子(全球风险规避和不确定性)上升时,跨境资本流入显著下降;(2)一国处于经济繁荣时期,经济增速和利率处于相对较高水平,全球金融周期对资本流入的影响会减弱;(3)一国资本账户开放程度或金融发展水平越高,全球金融周期对资本流入的影响会越强;(4)更具弹性的汇率制度尽管不能完全隔绝全球金融周期的影响,但相比固定汇率制度,可提高一国抵御全球金融周期冲击的能力;(5)美国货币政策冲击是全球金融周期的重要驱动因素,并通过全球金融周期影响跨境资本流动。本文的政策含义在于,一国应夯实经济基本面、采取富有弹性的汇率制度和适当的资本管制措施,以缓解全球金融周期给资本流动带来的冲击。     

Effect of Capital Flight on Investment: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Much of the discussion on international capital movements is directed toward studying the effects of foreign capital flows, whereas the implications of resident capital outflows (capital flight) from developing countries remain largely unanalyzed. Using a dynamic panel methodology for twenty-two emerging market economies between 1975 and 2000, this paper investigates the effect of capital flight on investment and how this effect changes with financial liberalization policies. The empirical findings indicate that capital flight reduces private investment dramatically but does not have any effect on public investment. However, no statistically significant impact of financial liberalization on the marginal effect of capital flight on investment is found.     

国际资本流动理论回顾：一个文献综述

国际资本流动会对一国的经济产生重要的影响。文章通过梳理从古典经济学到现代经济学200多年关于国际资本流动的成因理论,并从利率、汇率因素,政治因素,资产组合因素,货币政策因素以及国际货币危机因素五个方面对国际资本流动理论进行分类总结,通过对不同学说成因的阐述,得出国际资本流动理论的研究展望：金融衍生工具将会成为国际资本流动的主要载体;国际资本流动的参与者将发生较大变化;对新兴国家资本流动的研究。     

亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动驱动因素研究——基于GMM模型的实证分析

理解资本流入的驱动因素,对于设计一个有效的资本流动管理政策框架至关重要。本文研究了1998年至2018年间45个新兴经济体面临的各类资本流动的驱动因素,重点分析了资本流向亚洲地区的驱动因素与其他地区的共性和异质性。使用广义矩估计方法(GMM)对面板数据集的实证结果表明,对新兴经济体而言,制度质量和国内因素对吸引资本流入具有重要影响;对亚洲地区来说,人均收入增长和贸易开放是吸引资本流入的重要驱动因素,国内外利差水平和实际有效汇率变动对吸引组合投资和其他投资具有显著影响,VIX指数和影子利率对亚洲新兴经济体资本流动规模的影响也具有重要影响。这表明,在设计管理资本流入的政策框架时,全球经济金融合作和政策协调应被考虑在内。     

内外部金融周期差异如何影响中国跨境资本流动?

本文揭示了内外部金融周期差异影响跨境资本流动的机制,并以美国为外部经济代表,基于1998年第一季度至2018年第一季度数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)中国跨境资本流动波动主要来自短期资本流动波动;分类看,其他投资波动较大;方向上看,流入波动要大于流出波动。(2)利差、汇差、资产价差(股指变动差异和房价变动差异)是影响跨境资本流动的重要因素,汇差和资产价差对短期资本流动影响尤甚。(3)内外部金融周期差异变动对资本流入的影响比对资本流出的影响更明显。(4)近年来,利差对跨境资本流动影响减弱,汇差和资产价差对跨境资本流动影响增强。结果说明,防范跨境资本流动风险要关注其他投资资本流动大幅波动风险,同时注意防范汇率和资产价格波动共振对跨境资本流动的冲击。     

资本账户开放对汇率波动和股市收益的影响研究——基于日本1998~2011年的数据

利用日本1998~2011年的月度数据,通过构建股市收益率、实际汇率变动以及短期资本净流入的三元结构的 SVAR 模型,对上述三变量之间的动态关系进行定量分析。结果表明：在资本账户开放后,短期资本存在套利和套汇的现象,短期资本流入会导致股指走低,却使得实际有效汇率小幅走高;日本股市虽然受到汇率和资本流动的影响,但影响有限;短期资本流动对国内国际变化较为敏感,应谨慎开放资本项目。此外,在推进资本账户开放的过程中,应同时推进汇率形成机制的市场化。     

法国资本账户开放的政策经验与启示

自20世纪80年代初开始,随着国际收支改善、金融部门发展以及金融自由化步伐加快,法国采取渐进式步骤,平稳实现了资本账户开放。文章介绍了法国实施资本账户开放的主要路径以及政策效果和影响,并总结了其对于我国资本账户开放的启示：如在资本账户开放前,应增强本国的实体经济、完善金融体系;资本账户改革需与整体经济改革协调一致;针对不同类别的资本流动风险采取不同防范措施等。     

Elections and Capital Flows

This paper investigates the extent to which elections affect capital flows. I find little evidence of political capital flow cycles in advanced economies. In emerging and developing countries, however, presidential elections significantly lower preelection foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows but have no effect on other types of capital flows. Furthermore, I find evidence that these cycles are not caused by economic crises related to elections or preelection manipulation of policy variables. These results suggest that uncertainty about future government policies, which should have greater impact on more irreversible forms of capital flows like FDI, may be an important factor in generating this cycle.     

异质性国际资本流动对经济增长的影响——基于面板平滑转换模型

通过建立面板平滑转换模型(PSTR),以资本账户开放度作为门限变量,以贸易开放度、总国内储蓄率和金融发展程度作为控制变量,研究新兴经济体异质性国际资本流动对经济增长的影响.结果发现:两者之间存在非线性关系,且当资本账户开放度从低体制状态向高体制状态转变时,直接投资的促进作用越来越显著,证券投资的促进作用逐渐减小,其他投资的促进作用由显著到不显著.为此,应平稳有序地推进我国资本账户开放,合理确定吸引国际资本流入的结构,保持较高的贸易开放度和储蓄率,以及合适的金融发展程度.     

基于金融发展水平的证券市场开放对经济增长的影响

本文在索洛—斯旺框架下构建了一个分析证券市场开放对经济增长影响的理论模型,模型显示:金融开放后的经济收敛速度要大于封闭时的经济收敛速度,金融发展水平会促进金融开放带来的经济增长效应。通过金砖国家的数据对理论模型的结论进行实证检验显示:用名义的AREAER指标、实际的EW指标和资本流动指标度量的证券市场开放度的系数均显著为正,说明证券市场开放有利于经济增长;证券市场发展水平会促进该经济增长效应,而银行业发展水平对该经济增长效应的影响不显著。     

Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many emerging market countries resorted to capital controls to tackle the excessive surge of capital inflows. A number of recent research papers have suggested that the imposition of controls may have imposed negative externalities on other countries by deflecting flows. Our aim in the research reported in this paper is to assess the efficacy of capital controls and potential deflection effects on other countries by constructing a comprehensive global econometric model which captures the dynamic interactions of capital flows with domestic and global fundamentals. The results suggest that capital controls are effective for some countries in the short run, but have no lasting effects. Moreover, there is only limited evidence of deflection effects for a small number of emerging market countries.     

Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database

While the traditional objectives of capital controls were to address macroeconomic stability risks, a new “externalities view” has emerged prescribing their use to contain financial stability risks. In this context, our understanding of whether capital controls are used in practice to mitigate macroeconomic or financial stability remains limited. Using a novel database on high-frequency capital account regulations for 47 advanced and emerging economies from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically assesses this question. Our main findings are that: (a) in emerging markets there is a strong association of capital controls on inflows to mitigate risks to macro stability but not financial stability risks; (b) in advanced economies there is a robust association between capital controls on inflows to lean against the buildup of financial stability but not macro stability risks; (c) banking sector flows, but not aggregate capital flows, are strongly associated with tightening capital controls on inflows in emerging markets; and (d) pooling advanced and emerging economies attenuates regression estimates and would lead to concluding that capital controls have weak association with both financial and macro stability motives. Our results can be rationalized by the greater capital flows, more volatile business cycles and stronger interaction between business and financial cycles in emerging markets, and the deeper asset markets found in advanced economies.     

International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics

This paper explores the role of international reserves as a stabilizer of international capital flows, in particular during periods of global financial stress. In contrast with previous contributions, aimed at explaining net capital flows, we focus on the behavior of gross capital flows. We analyze an extensive cross-country quarterly database – 63 countries, 1991–2010 – using standard panel regressions. We document significant heterogeneity in the response of resident investors to financial stress and relate it to a previously undocumented channel through which reserves act as a buffer during financial stress. A robust result of the analysis is that international reserves facilitate financial disinvestment overseas by residents – a fall in capital outflows. This partially offsets the drop in foreign capital inflows observed in such periods. For the whole sample, we also find that larger stocks of international reserves are linked to higher gross inflows and lower gross outflows. These results, which challenge current approaches to measuring reserve adequacy, call for refining such tools to better account for the role of resident investors.     

Asian equity markets: growth,opportunities, and challenges

Asian equity markets have grown significantly in size since the early 1990s, driven by strong international investor inflows, growing regional financial integration, capital account liberalization, and structural improvements to markets. The development of equity markets provides a more diversified set of channels for financial intermediation to support growth, thus bolstering medium-term financial stability. At the same time, as highlighted by the May–June 2006 market corrections, the increasing role of stock markets potentially changes the nature of macroeconomic and financial stability risks, as well as the policy requirements for dealing with these risks.     

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country‐ and industry‐level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality. The country‐level results are based on 228 capital account liberalization episodes spanning 149 advanced and developing economies from 1970 to the present. Difference‐in‐difference estimation using industry‐level data for 23 advanced economies suggests that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.     

Capital account liberalization, financial development and industry growth: A synthetic view

This paper synthesizes studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and the strength of institutions. We find evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries, although these growth-enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises. Further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well-developed financial systems, good accounting standards, strong creditor rights and rule of law. It suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization.     

Capital flows,exchange rate management and monetary policy

Capital inflows have brought substantial macro and financial benefits; at the same time, the size and nature of capital inflows have complicated macroeconomic management in recipient countries. Multiple concerns have produced multiple responses by countries to capital inflows. Countries have pursued a combination of policies – let the exchange rate appreciate, accumulate foreign exchange reserves, with or without sterilization, liberalize outflows, tighten monetary and fiscal policies and in a few cases impose capital controls on inflows either directly or through prudential regulation. Experience shows that there are no corner solutions and countries have to resort to a judicious mix of these policies depending on the prevailing circumstances.