Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

县域农村银行业金融服务需求匹配度分析--以吉林省辽源市为例

为摸清我省农户、涉农企业银行业服务新需求新趋势,深入分析需求特点和对金融服务满足程度、便利程度,客观评价金融支农支小情况。本文以吉林辽源为例,实地调查了金融服务与需求情况,深入分析了金融服务需求匹配度及原因,并提出对策建议。     

培育和发展金融资本促进我国金融业改革

作为世界贸易组织成员国，在经济全球化、全球金融市场一体化和金融自由化的大环境中培育和发展金融资本，是我国金融业的发展趋势，也是更为适合的改革途径。本文试图从金融资本理论出发，探讨这一改革途径的必要性、可能性和发展思路。     

我国服务贸易与经济发展——基于行业面板数据的分析

本文利用1997年到2006年8个服务贸易行业的面板数据,通过分析我国服务贸易进出口与经济发展之间的关系,肯定了我国入世后服务贸易进出口快速发展的同时,发现服务贸易进口对经济发展的促进作用要大于服务贸易出口。从行业结构上还发现我国目前占我国服务贸易进出口过半的传统服务贸易行业对经济发展的促进作用偏低而相对份额较少的新兴服务贸易行业,也就是资本知识密集服务行业对经济发展的促进作用较大。另外国际文化服务贸易对我国经济发展具有较强推动作用,我国应该进一步重视国际文化服务贸易的发展,增强中华文化的国际影响力。     

An Alternative View on Regulatory Distortions in a Competitive Financial Services Industry

We present an alternative view on regulatory distortions in the banking industry. We use the duopoly model developed by Boot, Dezelan, and Milbourn (BDM, 2000), where a bank with low monitoring costs faces a bank with high monitoring costs. We show that when the initial level of the capital requirement is low, an increase of the minimum ratio between capital and total assets causes a higher decrease in profits at the bad bank than at the good bank. This finding contrasts with BDM's theorem 1, which predicts that a regulation imposing an identical increase in production costs on both banks will cause a greater loss in profits at the good bank than at the bad bank. We also look at the impact of an increase in the minimum ratio between capital and total assets on the profits of a representative bank in three other competitive environments identified in BDM. We find that the decrease in the representative bank's profit caused by an increase in the capital requirement is larger when the bank faces competition from an unregulated firm than when it faces a regulated competitor or no competitor at all. This result is consistent with BDM's theorem 2.     

Capital flows,exchange rate management and monetary policy

Capital inflows have brought substantial macro and financial benefits; at the same time, the size and nature of capital inflows have complicated macroeconomic management in recipient countries. Multiple concerns have produced multiple responses by countries to capital inflows. Countries have pursued a combination of policies – let the exchange rate appreciate, accumulate foreign exchange reserves, with or without sterilization, liberalize outflows, tighten monetary and fiscal policies and in a few cases impose capital controls on inflows either directly or through prudential regulation. Experience shows that there are no corner solutions and countries have to resort to a judicious mix of these policies depending on the prevailing circumstances.     

基于多种贸易理论的我国金融服务贸易模式探究

单一的贸易理论对我国金融服务贸易模式的解释不够完整和准确。通过对前人研究成果的总结和评价,我国的金融服务贸易模式应从不同提供方式和业务类型的角度分别探讨。依据对我国现实状况的实证分析,得出结论:我国的金融服务贸易呈现产业间和产业内贸易的混合模式,过境交付金融服务贸易遵循波特的竞争优势理论,商业存在金融服务贸易可以用规模经济和消费者偏好相似理论加以解释。最后,基于不同提供方式的模式特征提出了相应的政策建议。     

汇率制度、资本流动与金融危机:理论和实证分析——东亚金融危机视角

20世纪90年代,几乎所有发生金融危机的国家当时都实行固定或钉住汇率制度。东亚金融危机爆发前,东亚各经济体大多实行钉住美元的相对固定汇率制,大量国际资本流入,本币严重高估,经常项目巨额逆差,宏观经济严重失衡。在汇率贬值的预期下,国际投机资本对东亚经济体货币发动攻击,大量资本流出,受攻击的经济体外汇储备耗尽,最终导致实际钉住美元的固定汇率制崩溃,金融危机爆发,蔓延成危及东亚乃至世界的金融危机。东亚金融危机的事实表明,金融危机、资本流动和汇率制度之间存在着密切关系。     

有效汇率、贸易顺差与跨境资本流动的动态关系研究--基于国际收支平衡表的时间序列分析

文章采用1988年1季度到2014年2季度的国际收支平衡表数据,通过建立 VAR模型分析了名义有效汇率、货物贸易顺差与跨境资本流动之间的相互关系。研究结果表明：（1）三者之间存在着一种非对称的互动关系;（2）“货物贸易顺差→名义实际汇率→跨境资本流动→货物贸易顺差”之间形成了自我循环机制,而这一自我循环机制的关键是“货物贸易顺差←→跨境资本流动”互为因果且相互加强的关系;（3）中国双顺差现象是一个结构性问题,并与该自我循环机制密切相关。     

中小企业资本与金融资本发展关系辨析--兼论我国中小企业资本的发展

20世纪70年代以后,世界范围内资本发展出现了集中和分散两种截然不同的趋势.两种趋势并行不悖,辩证、协调发展.与此相应,金融资本和中小企业资本、大型企业和中小企业也相互促进、辨证发展.就我国而言,我们应该辨证认识金融资本和中小企业资本的发展关系,大力发展中小企业资本,为金融资本的发展创造条件.     

基于金融安全的资本流动：理论解读与中国实证

基于IS-LM-BP模型阐述了资本流动—经济非均衡的生成机制,揭示了资本流入规模、资本流入结构、外汇储备及经常项目是影响一国资本流动金融安全的主要因素。通过建立资本流动影响金融安全的测算体系,对1996～2005年我国资本流动进行了实证分析,结果表明：(1)中国资本流动状况总体较好,状态界定为安全；(2)资本流入规模正常,但期限结构不够合理；(3)现阶段我国资本流动的安全运行有保障。     

Relationship Banking and the Pricing of Financial Services

We investigate pricing effects of the joint production of loans and security underwritings. We control for firm and borrower characteristics, including differences in sequencing, which are important for pricing. Contrary to previous studies, when banks combine lending and underwriting within the same customer relationship they charge premiums for both loans and underwriting services. Abstracting from effects of joint production within relationships, depository banks engaged in underwriting price lending and underwriting more cheaply than stand alone investment banks. One advantage borrowers enjoy from bundling products within a banking relationship is a form of liquidity risk insurance, which is manifested in a reduced demand for lines of credit. We also find evidence of a “road show” effect; firms enjoy loan pricing discounts on loans that are negotiated at times close to the debt underwritings, whether or not the same bank provides both services. Relationship effects are only visible when lending and underwriting both occur, and are stronger for equity-loan relationships than for debt-loan relationships. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Deposit Insurance, Capital Regulations, and Financial Contagion in Multinational Banks

Abstract:  Banking sector globalization has caused an expansion in foreign-owned bank assets. In this paper we analyse the effects of a MNB's liability structure upon its investment in a foreign country. We develop a model in which capital adequacy requirements introduce some deliberate underinvestment which counters deposit insurance-induced overinvestment. Diversification is unattractive with fixed bank capital requirements, because it reduces the expected value of the deposit insurance net. This effect applies in multinational banks (MNBs), where shocks to the home country economy alter the value of the deposit insurance net and hence affect overseas lending incentives. Thus, MNBs act as a channel for financial contagion. We discuss the policy implications of our results.     

Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

We study the gross and net terms of portfolio capital flows by examining their determinants. Through the application of the Bayesian model averaging method, the determinants are evaluated by a set of models instead of a single specification. Our findings show that the magnitude of both gross equity and gross debt flows are large, relative to their net terms. Equity inflows and outflows are quite symmetric with similar determinants; debt inflows and outflows are less symmetric. The paper provides partial evidence to support the importance of both internal and external factors as determinants of capital flows.     

资本项目自由兑换与中国（上海）自由贸易试验区建设

中国（上海）自由贸易试验区建设与人民币国际化相辅相成,但两者都需要进一步加快人民币资本项目自由兑换的进程.根据渐进稳妥的原则,可以将一些人民币资本项目自由兑换政策在上海自由贸易试验区内先行先试.例如,近期可以在区内推行人民币跨境贷款制度和完善贸易信贷管理制度等.     

Optimal Capital Utilization by Financial Firms: Evidence from the Property-Liability Insurance Industry

Capitalization levels in the property-liability insurance industry have increased dramatically in recent years—the capital-to-assets ratio rose from 25% in 1989 to 35% by 1999. This paper investigates the use of capital by insurers to provide evidence on whether the capital increase represents a legitimate response to changing market conditions or a true inefficiency that leads to performance penalties for insurers. We estimate best practice technical, cost, and revenue frontiers for a sample of insurers over the period 1993–1998, using data envelopment analysis, a non-parametric technique. The results indicate that most insurers significantly over-utilized equity capital during the sample period. Regression analysis provides evidence that capital over-utilization primarily represents an inefficiency for which insurers incur significant revenue penalties.     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

金融支持服务贸易的理论分析与对策研究

服务贸易作为经济发展的动力和引擎,对于转变我国经济发展和对外贸易增长方式具有重大战略意义,但由于缺乏足够的金融支持,我国服务贸易整体水平还处于比较落后的状态。本文将从产业结构调整理论和国家竞争优势理论的视角分析对服务贸易进行金融支持的必要性,并提出构建我国服务贸易多元化金融支持体系的对策建议。     

Regulatory Distortions in a Competitive Financial Services Industry

This paper focusses on the interaction between regulation and competition in a simple industrial organization model. We analyze how regulation affects the profitability of financial institutions. We find that information asymmetries impose a heavy regulatory burden on the higher-quality banks, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning regulation. Our other main results point at the importance of a level playing field.     

广西金融服务体系发展现状及相关建议

金融是现代经济的核心。随着我国社会主义市场经济的不断发展,金融日益渗透到人民群众工作、生活等各个方面,金融服务的质量与水平也日益为社会所关注和期待。构建现代化的金融服务体系对于促进我国经济社会的全面和谐发展具有重要的意义。本文旨在通过对广西金融服务体系建设现状及存在的问题进行研究分析,积极为加快构建与广西经济发展相适应的金融服务体系抛砖引玉。