National grain policies: The international dimension

Government intervention in the pricing and marketing of grains has led to increased use of restrictive trade practices to preserve domestic price levels and ensure orderly marketing of domestically produced and imported grain. The author examines this relationship between domestic agricultural and trade policies of a selected group of grain importing and exporting countries. The article suggests that, because of the strong link between domestic and trade policies, it will be difficult to reduce trade restrictions in international grain markets in future trade negotiations.     

An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market

This paper develops an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization scenarios on Asian dairy markets, using a world dairy model incorporating both vertical and spatial characteristics of the world dairy sector. Japan and Korea’ producers will suffer much bigger losses from trade liberalization than other countries in the region; Japan and Korea’s producers get much more protection from trade distortions than from domestic subsidy. India is a potential competitive exporter if Asia is liberalized. China and India are potential competitive exporters under global free trade. South East Asia and other South Asian countries remain importers under free trade. Greater trade liberalization around the world increases exports for potential exporters and/or ease importing pressure for potential importers. The increasing order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies sectors is found to be Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. China and India consumers would lose from world trade liberalization, but the other countries’ consumer surplus will increase.     

我国进出口贸易的内涵碳对他国的气候补偿效应

日益严峻的气候变化问题导致气候资源不再免费使用而将其纳入经济体系,由此催生了碳交易。我国贸易的低端环节导致出口产品中的内涵碳长期处于总量巨大且加速增长的态势,形成了在贸易环节我国补贴他国气候资源的事实。文章应用投入产出法测算了我国出口产业内涵碳及其波及效果,应用碳市场对气候资源的补偿价格,得出了我国无论是某些产业还是出口总体,在贸易中对他国气候资源的补贴都已经超过了从贸易中所获经济利益的事实。     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

Price relations between export and domestic rice markets in Thailand

Many rice importing countries argue that rice exporting nations isolate their domestic markets through the use of stabilization pricing policies which cause international rice markets to become excessively volatile. For the argument to hold any weight, price transmission between exporting countries’ domestic and export markets should be unidirectional whereby export prices are driven by domestic prices but domestic prices are not affected by export prices. The study tests the hypothesis on Thailand, traditionally the world’s largest rice exporter. The results from the causality tests are not entirely clear, however the results from the impulse response functions show that while the shocks originating in the domestic market are higher in magnitude in the export market in the short-run, the shocks originating in the export market are more persistent in the domestic market. This suggests that although Thailand’s domestic policies are somewhat effective in the immediate months after the shock they allow price transmission from its export market to transfer over to its domestic market in the long-run. The results therefore imply that Thailand’s domestic pricing programs are not heavily distorting world rice markets.     

技术性贸易壁垒与中国高技术产品出口——基于扩展贸易引力模型的经验分析

本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型,使用2000~2015 年中国同22 个贸易伙伴国的面板数据,并引入和技术性贸易壁垒以及高技术产品密切相关的知识产权保护这一变量,实证考察进口国TBT 对中国高技术产品出口的影响。结果表明：（1）进口国实施 TBT 或进行知识产权保护均会抑制中国高技术产品的出口,但抑制作用并不显著;（2）若进口国将TBT 和知识产权保护相结合形成更为隐蔽的技术性贸易壁垒,将会显著抑制中国高技术产品的出口;（3）中国高技术产品出口呈现行业差异,其中医药制造业受到的抑制效应最大;（4）由于技术模仿和产品同质化现象的存在,中国高技术产品出口会在中高收入国家遭遇更为严重的TBT,对出口的抑制效应会更大。中国应将知识产权保护政策作为应对进口国TBT的一种补充,在保证高技术产品贸易健康发展的同时推动出口产业向中高端发展。     

中国未来发展如何保障能源安全

对能源出口国和能源进口国,发达国家和发展中国家来说,＂能源安全＂的概念是不同的。就中国而言,＂能源安全＂就是要＂以充足而可靠的能源供应和合理的价格,使国家的核心价值和目标不受损害＂,就是要保发展、保稳定,维护国家的根本利益。然而,中国能源安全面临国内油气供需缺口增大、低碳技术创新能力不足、获取海外油气资源难度加大、国际油价剧烈波动以及能源安全应急机制不健全等挑战。因此建议：加快转变经济发展方式,坚持低碳化发展方向;加大国内油气资源勘探开发的力度;坚持＂走出去＂,利用国外资源弥补国内的不足;引进先进技术,发展低碳经济;积极构建保障能源安全的政策体系;建立国家战略储备,完善应急协调机制。     

Investigating the impacts of time delays on trade

Time delays due to inefficient customs and administrative procedures have become a leading non-tariff barrier (NTB) that restrict international trade and impair social welfare. This paper investigates how time delays affect product quality, product price, trade flow, and social welfare, using data on the days it takes to clear customs in 96 countries. We explore the impacts of time delays on product quality and price with different levels of perishability. We find that longer time delays at the border would significantly decrease highly perishable agricultural products' quality and price. We also find that for highly perishable agricultural products, improved and simplified customs delays would increase trade flows and social welfare of importing countries.     

Trade subsidies,export bans and price stabilization: Lessons of Bangladesh–India rice trade in the 2000s

During the world food price crisis of 2007–08, rice importing countries suffered through a sharp increase in international rice prices and disruptions in supply as several rice exporters restricted trade to mitigate their domestic price increases. Perhaps no country was more affected by these disruptions than Bangladesh. Our analysis shows that prior to the 2007 crisis, when Bangladesh imported an average of nearly 1 million tons of rice per year from India, domestic wholesale prices of rice in Bangladesh were co-integrated with import parity prices of subsidized Below Poverty Line (BPL) rice. When in mid-2007, India sharply curtailed exports, rice prices surged in Bangladesh.Model simulations show that a relatively small increase in private consumer stocks equivalent to about 2 weeks of normal consumption could account for the large surge in domestic prices in Bangladesh and that an additional 300,000 tons (in addition to approximately 700,000 tons of net rice distribution that actually occurred) would have been sufficient to stabilize prices in the November 2007–April 2008 period. The Bangladesh analysis thus shows that in spite of the uncertainty in international markets, careful planning, timely interventions and openness to trade can substantially reduce requirements for public stockholding.     

Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

印度玩具“禁令”变“限令”始末

1月23日,印度政府宣布从2009年2月1日开始的半年内,禁止产地为中国的玩具入境。政策出台后,不但中国出口印度的玩具企业一片哗然,其基本上“无理由”的禁止入境,也让引起国际舆论的关注。虽然中国玩具出口印度的企业数量少,出口贸易数额微小,对于整个中国玩具业来说,没有造成特别大的影响,但给中国玩具企业在防范国际贸易保护主义敲响了警钟。不过,印度政府自己都没有想到,他们出于保护本国玩具制造企业的出发点,却扰乱了其国内的玩具市场秩序,玩具零售面临严重缺货,玩具价格暴涨,零售商和消费者叫苦不迭。     

中国在东亚地区的自由贸易区建设研究

目前，贸易自由化席卷全球，世界各国都在积极与贸易伙伴谈判缔结FTA／EPA。我国在自由贸易区建设方面起步较晚，而且伙伴国主要在东亚地区。我国在东亚地区的自由贸易区建设面临两难困境：加快自由贸易区建设会给国内部分产业带来冲击和影响；放慢自由贸易区建设叉会遭遇日本以及东盟自由贸易发展的竞争和挑战。我国的策略应该是积极应对竞争和挑战，提高相关产业的国际竞争力，制定明确的自由贸易区战略，争取东亚贸易自由化和东亚一体化的主导权。     

The latecomer strategy for global ICT standardization: Indigenous innovation and its dilemma

This article reviews China׳s changing standardization strategies amidst the standards competitions that take place both domestically in China and globally. The relevant policies in China now support indigenous innovation, particularly in the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry by using standards, encourage domestic firms to patent their standard-related technologies, and promote innovation-oriented inter-firm alliances. The three cases examined illustrate the challenges that the Chinese government faces in implementing the policies. Most of all, while the government has actively promoted indigenous innovation as a latecomer strategy for global standardization, there are possibilities of clash with the international norms for free competition and economic liberalization which China is supposed to comply with. There are also oppositions from those domestic firms that mainly export products compliant with the international standards set by advanced countries, and from local authorities that support those firms. The demands for international compliance are often strengthened by multinationals importing products compliant with the international standards. These clashes and oppositions give a dilemma to the policy makers who want to push the standardization strategy based on indigenous innovation.     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

新兴经济大国中间产品创新驱动全球价值链攀升——基于中国经验的解释

本文在全球价值链分工框架下,基于中国的实践,提出新兴经济大国中间产品创新驱动全球价值链攀升的机制与路径,即利用低成本的比较优势获取发达经济体中低端中间产品外包,通过国内生产体系的规模经济与范围经济,引致国内中间产品的创新,实现进口替代,进而引发技能偏向性技术进步以及来自发达经济体的知识溢出与研发合作。上述机制共同推动着中国向全球价值链高端持续攀升。实证检验发现,中国制造业中间产品创新对全球价值链分工地位的影响存在显著的滞后效应和累积效应,对间接出口国内附加值率的提升作用、对高技术制造业的促进作用更明显;进口技术溢出对中国制造业全球价值链攀升有一定的负向效应,但随着中间产品创新能力的不断提升,负向效应明显下降;在向全球价值链高端攀升的过程中,随着中国制造业高技能劳动力和本土市场规模的不断增长,中间产品创新对全球价值链攀升的正向影响增强。本文的政策含义是,持续深化对外开放,尤其是促进创新、知识和科技服务贸易自由化;提高国内创新体系效率;扩大高技能劳动力教育供给与国际研发合作;提高国内中间产品R&D投入强度,逐步降低对G5发达经济体中间产品的依赖,释放国内巨大市场规模的效应,持续推动中国制造业向全球价值链高端攀升。     

Responding to Japan's deregulation of beef imports: A multifaceted challenge for Canadian export managers

While governments may expect benefits to arise from trade liberalisation, those benefits may not be forthcoming if there are considerable increases in the costs faced by exporting firms in the period following liberalisation. The challenge for export managers is to identify the important transaction costs and to find the vertical coordination mechanism which minimises transaction costs given the new importing regime. As of April 1 1991 Japan's beef importing system completed a major phase of liberalisation. A mutually beneficial increase in Canada-Japanese trade will, however, require a complex and multifaceted response from the Canadian beef industry.The Scottish Agricultural College receives financial support from the Scottish Office, Agriculture and Fisheries Department.     

The International Sugar Agreement 1977 — Market regulator and instrument of international policy

The 1977 International Sugar Agreement is one of several contemporary agreements designed to regulate the international market in specific commodities. A commodity agreement at the same time serves as an instrument through which nations international policies are carried out, and defines the rights and duties characterizing the relations between importing and exporting countries. The author examines the 1977 International Sugar Agreement in this context, discussing its regulatory mechanisms, its relation with the ‘New International Economic Order’ and the extent to which the interests of both importers and exporters are protected.     

Food irradiation in Asia and the Pacific

Although there has been considerable progress in the technology of food irradiation over recent years, barriers still restrict commercial applications in many countries, thus limiting international trade. However, there are moves to demonstrate the practical benefits of this method particularly in the developing countries of the Asian and Pacific region who have joined together in an international cooperative project. Based on developments in China and elsewhere, it is likely that more countries in this region will use food irradiation to combat high rates of food losses and to improve the quality of certain foods in the future.     

Impact of genetic modification on country image of imported food products in European markets: Perceptions of channel members

Risk to the image of food exporting countries in foreign markets for food products has been advanced as a reason for them to ban commercial release of genetically modified (GM) crops. The aim of this paper is to explore the reality and intensity of such a risk. In-depth interviews have been conducted with key distributors in the European food sector to ascertain factors that they consider important in determining reputation of exporting countries, and to ascertain whether GM impacts on such reputations. Highly negative consumer sentiment towards GM in Europe seems likely to continue to influence food industry buyers against importing GM food. However, no evidence was found that presence of GM crops in a country causes negative perception of non-GM food imported from that country. Provided adequate steps are taken to avoid accidental contamination of conventional crops, producer countries do not appear at great risk of damaging their overall country image for food products if GM technology is introduced.     

凸显幼教益智专业性——北京国际玩具及幼教用品展要办成国内最专业和最具影响力的幼教益智玩具展览会

随着国内物质生活的不断丰富,家长对子女的启蒙教育更为注重,玩具品类也更为众多、产品分类更为细化。近年来,以更为注重教育功能的益智类玩具呈高速发展状态,越来越多的企业跻身幼教、益智玩具的行列中,更具专业特色、分类更为细化的玩具展览趋势也随之呼之欲出。5月13日至15日,由中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司主办,中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司展览部、北京南北展览有限公司承办的第十三届北京国际玩具及幼教用品展览会暨北京国际幼儿园用品及配套设备展览会在中国国际贸易中心展览大厅盛大举行。