International spillovers,productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis

Thailand has experienced economic growth well above world averages from 1960 to the recent crisis. While the controversy over Thailand and East Asian growth has discussed the role of capital accumulation versus productivity, we analyze the general equilibrium interaction between productivity and investment in an intertemporal growth model. The high growth is understood as a prolonged transition path with gradual tariff reduction and endogenous productivity driven by foreign spillover feeding capital investment. Counterfactual analyses show how protection would have reduced growth with productivity and investment slowdown, while shock liberalization would have raised immediate growth with faster convergence to steady state.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.     

Capital income taxation in a growing world economy

This paper deals with dynamic adjustment in large economies to changes in the rate of capital income taxation or in the rate of investment tax credit in one country. The framework applied in the paper is a continuous-time, overlapping generations model with two countries. It features population growth and debt non-neutrality. We address impact and steady state effects of capital income tax and investment subsidy changes in the home country on consumption per capita, the capital intensity, and the per capita net foreign asset position in both countries. We also briefly consider individual welfare consequences of these policies.     

Human capital investment,credentialing, and wage differentials

This study considers how individuals determine at what ratio they will invest in two different types of education. The first type contributes to the development of labor skills, while the other does not. We refer to the former as human capital investment and the latter as unproductive investment, which improves test scores but has no beneficial effect on students' human capital. We formulate an overlapping‐generations economy in which the rich and poor households invest in both types of education. We find that the ratio of human capital investment to unproductive investment is lower in the economy with medium size of the wage differentials. In a dynamic analysis, we identify two patterns of stable steady states for the dynamics of the wage differentials, namely, no‐inequality and high‐inequality steady states. Further, we show that a rapid increase in the level of skill‐biased technology may cause a switch from a steady state with no‐inequality to one with high inequality. This causes at least a temporary increase in the ratio of unproductive investment during the transition to the new steady state.     

CAPITAL‐ AND LABOR‐SAVING TECHNICAL CHANGE IN AN AGING ECONOMY

Does population aging and the associated increase in the old‐age dependency ratio affect economic growth? The answer is given in a novel analytical framework that allows for population aging to affect endogenous capital‐ and labor‐saving technical change. In a steady state capital‐saving technical progress vanishes, and the economy's growth rate of per‐capita variables reflects only labor‐saving technical change. The mere possibility of capital‐saving technical change is shown to imply that the economy's steady‐state growth rate becomes independent of its age structure: Neither a higher life expectancy nor a decline in fertility affects economic growth in the long run.     

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper examines the economic implications of institutional arrangements by which foreign investors are required to reinvest a certain percentage of their capital within the host country. Our analysis shows that foreign capital inflow can produce long-lasting economic benefits to the host country only when the foreign capital reinvestment rate is sufficiently greater than the host country's saving rate. In this case, the economy evolves into a unique steady state equilibrium, which is also asymptotically stable. The paper also presents several comparative static results regarding the responses of steady state capital-labour ratio and the proportion of foreign capital in total capital to changes in the population growth rate, the rate of capital depreciation, the host country's saving rate and the foreign capital reinvestment rate.     

Foreign Investment,Technology Transfer and Foreign Capital Impact Function

This paper analyzes the optimal capital accumulation of a small open economy by incorporating the impact of technology transfer that accompanies foriegn ivestment. Assuming that technology transfer depends on the extent of foreign ownership, it is shown that, whenever there is technology transfer through foreìgn participation, the optimal rule suggests that a host country maintain some foreign capital in the steady state. The concept of the foreign capital impact function is introduced to capture possible negative effects in addition to the positive effects of foreign investment. The impact of foreign investment is shown to involve an externality, calling for government intervention for a social optimum. [110]     

中国增长动力切换、时空演变与“双门槛”测度 ——来自省际层面的经验证据

我国经济正处于增速换挡的增长动力切换关键时期,逐步迈向高质量发展阶段。本文基于2000—2022年中国省际层面的面板数据,聚焦研究中国经济增长动力切换问题,探讨了经济增长动力切换的时空演变与“双门槛”效应。结果表明：(1)生产性劳动、研发性劳动、生产投入以及研发投入显著地促进了我国经济增长;(2)中国增长动力切换经历了“生产性劳动与生产投入”、“研发性劳动与生产投入”以及“研发性劳动与研发投入”三个阶段;(3)中国经济增长动力时空演变存在区域异质性和时段异质性,不同区域和时段的经济增长动力存在显著差异;(4)中国经济增长动力切换具有外部制约条件,存在“双门槛”效应。同时,采用主实验加入控制变量前后对比、双边缩尾、排除新冠肺炎疫情影响和倾向得分匹配等方法进行稳健性检验,发现实证结果具有稳健性。本研究有助于理解经济增长动力切换的机制、路径与制约条件,为制定相应的政策和战略提供参考依据。     

外商直接投资与经济增长关系研究

选取1983～2010年的数据,运用协整检验和误差修正模型研究外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系,研究表明:(1)1983～2010年两者之间没有明确的长期均衡关系,原因在于我国引进外资政策和外商直接投资规模的阶段性特征明显。(2)根据两个时间序列的图形特征及邹氏参数稳定性断点检验将整个样本期以1994年为界分为两个子样本,两个子样本期内两者之间存在长期协整关系,短期内当外商直接投资规模偏离经济增长时,经济系统将分别以-0.2908和-0.0263的力度将其拉回均衡状态。(3)格兰杰因果检验表明,FDI促进了经济增长,但经济增长对吸引更多外资的作用不显著。提出了改善外商投资环境、加强外资的产业与区域导向和拓宽引进外资的渠道等政策建议。     

Optimal Two Sector Growth Models with Three Factors

The paper is devoted to construction of optimal trajectories in the model, which balances growth trends of investments in capital and labor efficiency. The model is constructed within the framework of classical approaches of the growth theory. It is based on three production factors: capital, educated labor and useful work. GDP level is described by a production function of the Cobb–Douglas type. The utility function of the growth process is given by an integral consumption index discounted on the infinite horizon. The optimal control problem is posed to balance investments in capital and labor efficiency. The problem is solved on the basis of dynamic programming principles. A novelty of the solution consists in constructing nonlinear stabilizers constructed on the feedback principle, which leads the system from any current position to a steady state. Growth and decline trends of the simulated trajectories are studied for all components included in the model.     

Foreign direct investment and spillovers: gradualism may be better

Abstract.  The standard argument says that in the presence of positive spillovers foreign direct investment should be promoted and subsidized. In contrast, this paper claims that the very existence of spillovers may require temporarily restricting FDI. Our argument is based on two features of spillovers: they are limited by the economy's absorptive capacity and they take time to materialize. By letting in capital more gradually, initial investment has the time to create spillovers – and upgrade the economy's absorptive capacity – before further investment occurs. The economy converges to a steady state with a superior technology and a greater capital stock.     

促进农民劳动力与资本和谐结合的对策分析

促进农村劳动力与资本在城市和农村的和谐结合是进一步增加农民收入的当务之急。在城市,人为歧视导致经济歧视,进而引起农村劳动力与资本结合度低。在农村,财政、金融和私人投资受限是生产要素结合度低的原因。管理当局可以从强化财政对农民的扶持与保护职能、依靠政策性银行带动商业银行发放贷款、吸引外国和城市私人资本投入、降低农民劳动力流动成本来增强农民投资能力等几个方面来提高双生产要素结合效率。     

内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用;而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.     

Growth and inequality in an endogenous fiscal policy model with taxes on labor and capital

I study an economy where individuals have different initial endowments and fiscal policy is decided by majority voting. Public investment is financed by two flat rate taxes, one on labor income and the other one on capital income. The model shows a positive (negative) correlation between growth and the tax rate on labor (capital) income and a negative (positive) correlation between the tax rate on labor (capital) income and inequality. The results reconcile the theory with empirical evidence.     

Foreign Debt,Foreign Direct Investment and Volatility

We investigate how foreign debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) affect the growth and welfare of a stochastically growing small open economy. First, we find that foreign debt influences the growth of domestic wealth by lowering the cost of capital, while FDI affects the country's welfare by providing an additional source of permanent income. Second, a decline in domestic investment may improve domestic welfare as FDI replaces the gap. Even when the welfare deteriorates, its magnitude is mitigated, leaving more room for discretionary fiscal policy. Third, a fiscal policy aimed to stabilize domestic output fluctuations needs to be conducted not to crowd out the welfare benefit of FDI too much. Fourth, an economy with both types of foreign capital experiences wider welfare swings by external volatility shocks than the one with foreign debt alone, while the welfare effects from domestic volatility shocks are mitigated. The welfare effects of fiscal shocks are much smaller with both types of foreign capital. Lastly, the first-best labor income tax covers the government absorption by the labor's share of total output, and the capital income tax covers the rest. Investment is penalized or subsidized depending on the social marginal cost-gain differential.     

Endogenous fertility and growth in a model with old age support

Summary. This paper examines the interrelationship between capital accumulation, fertility, and growth by introducing an endogenous fertility decision into Diamond's (1965) neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that children provide old age support and that individuals incur a variable time cost of raising children, it investigates the potential for cyclical fluctuations in the capital-labor ratio and fertility, as well as for development trap phenomena to be observed. It is shown that when capital and labor are highly substitutable in production, there is a unique steady state equilibrium, and either damped or undamped oscillations in fertility and the capital-labor ratio may occur. However, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, two steady state equilibria may exist; one with a high capital-labor ratio and a high rate of population growth, and the other with a lower capital-labor ratio as well as a lower population growth rate. The former is a saddle, while the latter may be either a source or a sink. In the latter case development traps are possible. Received: June 16, 1997; revised version: December 18, 1997     

OPTIMAL FOREIGN BORROWING REVISITED

Foreign capital has become increasingly important in financing investment and growth in developing countries. Foreign capital flows, however, can be volatile as is evident from the recent financial crises. It has also recently been noted by researchers that there is little systematic empirical evidence that foreign capital contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. In this context, this paper attempts to theoretically reevaluate the borrowing behaviour of a developing economy that relies on foreign borrowing for its capital formation. In particular, this paper investigates the implications of different lending policies of international financial institutions. It is found that no matter whether the borrowing interest rate increases with the level of foreign debt per capita or with the foreign‐capital/total‐capital ratio, the economy always moves toward the stationary state. The result holds even when the representative agent regards the interest rate given as constant. This implies that foreign borrowing does help economic growth, irrespective of lending policies of international financial institutions.     

Optimal fiscal policy in the Uzawa-Lucas model with externalities

Summary. This paper devises a fiscal policy by means of which the first-best optimum equilibrium is attained as a market equilibrium in the Uzawa-Lucas model when average human capital has an external effect on productivity. The optimal policy requires the use of a subsidy to investment in human capital which can be financed by a tax on labor income. Lump-sum taxation is not required to balance the government budget either in the steady state or in the transitional phase. Physical capital income should not be taxed. Alternatively, the optimal growth path can be attained by means of a subsidy to human capital. Received: March 21, 2002; revised version: September 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through PNICDYIT grant SEC2002-03663 is gratefully acknowledged.     

中国经济增长的制度分析与实证研究

主流的增长理论缺乏对制度的分析,认为制度是外生的。在实证方面,对于制度的研究又缺乏精确的分析。笔者以新古典增长和制度学派为基础,对制度特点进行分析,认为增长的特点是产出、资本、消费和制度都存在一个最优的值。通过实证分析我们认为,中国经济增长中劳动力的投入对经济的影响比资本投入和制度因素要小。制度因素主要是通过资本的投入和劳动力的投入来影响经济增长的。尽管在直接效应中,制度因素对经济增长起反向作用,但在总效应中,制度对经济增长起正向作用。     

OLD WINE FOR NEW BOTTLES: PUTTING OLD GROWTH THEORY BACK IN THE NEW

This paper shows how the mechanisms of endogenous growth can readily be incorporated within old growth theory, thereby resolving the principal impasse that stymied old growth theory. The key mechanism is the technological progress function which was originally developed by Kaldor (1957). The growth effects of monetary and fiscal policy operate through three channels. The first is the 'portfolio composition' channel, with policy serving to alter the money-capital mix of portfolios; the second is the money in the production function channel, with policy serving to alter the relative use of money and capital as inputs; the third is the money in the technological progress function channel, with policy affecting the dynamic allocative efficiency of investment via its impact on the level of financial intermediation. Since money and capital both enter the technological progress function. policies that affect the demands for money and capital affect the steady state rate of growth.