Derivatives market and economic growth nexus: Policy implications for emerging markets

The derivatives market plays a crucial role in an economy. However, its link to economic growth and macroeconomic factors seem to be insufficiently covered in academic research despite the publication of many empirical studies on the causality of finance and growth. Recently, many emerging markets, such as Vietnam, have decided to establish a derivatives markets for risk management to ensure stability in the economy. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship among these key variables using up-to-date panel data on 17 countries, for which required data are available until 2017. This study yields various findings. First, bidirectional Granger causality between derivatives markets and economic growth exists internationally. Second, using panel vector autoregression, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition techniques as well as panel econometrics estimations, we find that trade openness and government spending have more effects on the derivatives market than economic growth and inflation. Third, we document that the derivatives market has a more integrated direct relationship with economic growth and macroeconomic factors in high-income countries than their upper-middle-income counterparts. These new findings are essential for consideration by policy makers in emerging markets in relation to the development of their derivatives markets.     

Investigating the importance of self‐acceptance and self‐efficacy on weight management in a developing country

The growing rates of obesity in both developed and developing countries are alarming. Most studies on obesity mainly focus on individuals in developed countries with ready access to food. Limited studies explore obesity in developing countries with limited access to healthier foods. In addition, studies show self‐acceptance and self‐efficacy are essential to healthier well‐being. The purpose of this study is (a) to explore the impact of self‐acceptance on individuals' self‐efficacy to weight management and (b) to investigate the impact of self‐efficacy on individuals' attitude and intention in regard to weight managements. Using data from Indonesia (N = 499), the respondents are divided based on their body mass index. The results show that self‐acceptance significantly influenced individuals' self‐efficacy, especially for individuals who are obese. Furthermore, self‐efficacy did not influence individual attitude toward weight management. Finally, attitude toward weight management only influenced people who are obese and not individuals who are overweight. The results of this study will have significant implications to government, social marketers, and not‐for‐profit organizations in fighting the epidemic in developing countries.     

GMM Estimation with Non‐causal Instruments*

This note provides a warning against careless use of the generalized method of moments (GMM) with time series data. We show that if time series follow non‐causal autoregressive processes, their lags are not valid instruments, and the GMM estimator is inconsistent. Moreover, endogeneity of the instruments may not be revealed by the J‐test of overidentifying restrictions that may be inconsistent and has, in general, low finite‐sample power. Our explicit results pertain to a simple linear regression, but they can easily be generalized. Our empirical results indicate that non‐causality is quite common among economic variables, making these problems highly relevant.     

Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator

In this study, we aim to construct a single financial stress indicator (FSI) for Turkey adopting weekly data from between April 2005 and December 2016. To do so, we compose 15 different FSIs using 14 variables that will represent five different markets, i.e. the money market, the bond market, the foreign exchange market, the equity market and the banking sector. We aggregate these five different markets using a variety of techniques, including principal component analysis (PCA), basic portfolio theory, variance equal weights and the Bayesian dynamic factor model. We compare 15 different FSIs on the basis of their relation to, and the forecasting power of, different variables such as the growth rate of industrial production, the OECD business condition index and the OECD composite leading indicator for Turkey. Our results suggest that there is no simple best indicator for Turkey to measure financial systemic stress. Some indicators offer good forecasting power for economic growth while others have a stronger correlation with systemic risk. Therefore, we offer a final FSI for Turkey conducting a model averaging method via a rolling correlation based weighting scheme to benefit from the information content of all the FSIs and observe that the final FSI successfully indicates the tension periods.     

Market Orientation and Performance: A Meta‐Analysis and Cross‐National Comparisons*

abstract Quantitative evidence drawn from a meta‐analysis of 56 studies (58 samples) conducted in 28 countries reveals that market orientation is a generic determinant of firm performance. However, stronger effects were found for studies set in large, mature markets and when market orientation was measured using Kohli, Jaworski and Kumar's (1993 ) MARKOR scale. The meta‐analysis also revealed that the value of a market orientation weakens in proportion to the cultural distance separating the home market from the USA. This study thus extends previous research by: (1) providing evidence of measurement moderators that inhibit the generalization of results obtained from studies using different scales and performance variables; (2) establishing benchmark effect sizes for specific regions around the world; and (3) revealing that the managerial value of a market orientation is significantly affected by the cultural and economic characteristics of the host country.     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.     

Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK*

This paper assesses different ways of converting qualitative data obtained in surveys into quantitative indices for a number of economic variables. The research reported here focuses on the main UK employers’ business survey for manufacturing – the CBI industrial trends survey. Six response variables are investigated – plant and machinery investment, output, employment, exports, price and cost. We find that the balance statistic is a satisfactory method of transforming three of the variables: investment, output and exports.     

INDIVIDUAL DETERMINANTS OF SELF‐EMPLOYMENT ENTRY: WHAT DO WE REALLY KNOW?

The analysis of the decision to enter into self‐employment is a hot topic in the economic literature. Among the elements that most directly influence this decision, individual factors are central. This study produces a comprehensive survey of the impact of these factors, covering both the theoretical arguments and the main conclusions emerging from the empirical studies. We analyze 12 critical determinant factors of the entry into self‐employment grouped into seven categories: (1) basic individual characteristics (gender, age, marital status, and children); (2) family background (parents and spouse); (3) personality characteristics; (4) human capital (education and experience); (5) health condition; (6) nationality and ethnicity; and (7) access to financial resources. While for some of the factors solid conclusions can be found, for others additional research is still needed in order to shed further light on their influence.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Exploring the effect of environmental orientation on financial decisions of businesses at the bottom of the pyramid: Evidence from the microlending context

Existing research has accumulated substantial evidence on the effect that an environmental orientation has on businesses' economic performance. Yet this research does not cover small businesses from bottom‐of‐the‐pyramid (BOP) markets. In fact, despite increasing interest in research on BOP markets, the effect of environmental orientation on the financial decision‐making of small businesses from BOP markets has gone largely unexplored. Using a large multicountry data set from a microlending platform, we investigate how the environmental orientation of BOP businesses impacts their financial decisions related to microlending, which ultimately shapes their economic performance. The results indicate that an environmental orientation necessitates BOP businesses to request a higher level of financial capital and ask for longer time to pay it back. Surprisingly, environmental orientation increases the odds of BOP businesses paying back the borrowed capital. These results show that environmental orientation gives rise to both challenges and opportunities for sustainable development in BOP markets.     

Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price

Baumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338–351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real‐time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea‐based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor‐based Nelson–Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian yields similar results to those reported in their paper. Also, the futures‐based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons.     

Silence and Voice in Nigeria's Hybrid Urban Water Markets: Implications for Local Governance of Public Goods

This article highlights how the governance of the water sector affects the strategies and tactics urban residents use to gain improved access to water for household consumption in cities with limited networked infrastructure. A framework of exit, voice and loyalty (EVL) is used to characterize the actions household decision makers take in neighborhoods across metropolitan areas. In Nigeria, Lagos and Benin City are rapidly growing metropolitan regions with urban water markets competing with a state‐run utility. Scholars have documented informality and hybridity between state and non‐state actors, but there is less understanding of variables associated with citizen behavior in urban water markets across different types of households and communities. This article places Nigeria in the context of African mobilization around water provision, using interviews, observation and findings from fieldwork, household interviews and surveys undertaken between 2008 and 2015 to show how access to water is shaped by the interplay between state and non‐state sources of water. This access is filtered through differently regulated service providers and the perceived authority of each actor involved in water delivery, which can lead to what I call structural silence. Findings show the need for a grounded understanding of factors influencing voice and participation in local governance.     

Analysing Misleading Discrete Responses: A Logit Model Based on Misclassified Data*

This study presents an alternative to direct questioning and randomized response approaches to obtain survey information about sensitive issues. The approach used here is based on a logit model that can be used when survey data on the dependent variable are misclassified. The method is applied to a direct survey of undergraduate cheating behaviour. Student responses may not always be truthful. In particular, a student claiming to be a non‐cheater may actually be a cheater. The results indicate that the incidence of cheating in our sample is approximately 70% rather than the self‐reported value of 51%.     

Do Firms Increase Productivity in Order to Become Exporters?*

Recent studies find that exporters are more productive than non‐exporters and that entry into exporting does not increase firms’ productivity. Thus, firms self‐select into foreign markets. This paper examines productivity before entry into exporting. Using Chilean plant‐level data, we find that productivity and investment increase before plants begin to export. Moreover, productivity of entrants to exporting, but not that of non‐exporters and exporters, increases in response to increases in foreign income, before entry but not after that. The results suggest that the productivity advantage of future exporters may be the result of firms increasing their productivity in order to export.     

Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy*

Nonlinear time series models have become fashionable tools to describe and forecast a variety of economic time series. A closer look at reported empirical studies, however, reveals that these models apparently fit well in‐sample, but rarely show a substantial improvement in out‐of‐sample forecasts, at least over linear models. One of the many possible reasons for this finding is the use of inappropriate model selection criteria and forecast evaluation criteria. In this paper we therefore propose a novel criterion, which we believe does more justice to the very nature of nonlinear models. Simulations show that this criterion outperforms those criteria currently in use, in the sense that the true nonlinear model is more often found to perform better in out‐of‐sample forecasting than a benchmark linear model. An empirical illustration for US GDP emphasizes its relevance.     

Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us*

Using Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple‐years model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990) . This implies that we account for dynamic self‐selection bias. We also present an extended version of this model in which the marginal value of leisure is random. For the female sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age‐specific hazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Dynamic self‐selection results in a downward bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisure translates into sizeable over‐prediction of the impact of reform. Due to lack of data, results for males should be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self‐selection bias.     

Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity

Recently introduced measures for economic policy uncertainty (EPU), included in the data from 1997 to 2016, have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for future real economic activity for both the euro area and UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU information is important in times of normal business cycles, but might contain similar information components to financial market return variables during turbulent crisis periods in the financial markets and in the real economy.     

Risky Businesses? Young People in Informal Self‐Employment in Sofia

This article studies how perceptions of the risks associated with informal self‐employment depend on the interplay between the institutional, structural (network) and cultural embeddedness of economic action. Informal self‐employment should create at least three types of risk. The first concerns the possible legal and social sanctions that stem from the illegal character of the entrepreneurial action. The second is related to the complete lack of social security protection among those for whom informal self‐employment is their sole employment. The third is connected with the lack of guarantees concerning contract enforcement, which may increase the probability of opportunistic behaviour by business partners and clients. On the basis of a qualitative study of young, highly educated, informally self‐employed workers in Bulgaria's capital Sofia, I argue that these risks are compensated by the specific network and cultural embeddedness of the economic action. This compensation takes the form of various types of insurance against risks. Its core is the replacement of the vacuum of institutional‐system trust with interpersonal trust. Thus, the specific constellation of institutional, network and cultural embeddedness is able to solve the problem of opportunism, as well as to create the perception that the informally self‐employed are faced with not much greater risks than registered self‐employed workers.     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

Improving portfolio diversification: Identifying the right baskets for putting your eggs

We measure the economic value of diversification for international multiasset investment strategies. This study implements five existing diversification measures and proposes a novel measure of diversification, the unsystematic risk ratio (URR). Only the URR and the effective number of bets measures predict the future risk‐adjusted performance. These relations are robust to the choice of investment horizon and degree of relative risk aversion. The diversification benefits are larger for the frontier and emerging markets than for the developed markets, for multiasset strategies than for single asset class strategies, and for the pre‐crisis and post‐crisis periods than for the financial crisis period.