Accounting of the German Statutory Pension Scheme: Balance Sheet,Cross‐Sectional Internal Rate of Return and Implicit Tax Rate

We present a framework for accounting of the German statutory pension scheme and calculate a balance sheet for the period 2005–14. Estimating a funding ratio of about 90 per cent, we present some policy recommendations in order to restore balancing of assets and liabilities. Extending and applying the methodology proposed by Settergren and Mikula (2005), we additionally estimate the aggregate cross‐sectional internal rate of return of the German pension scheme over this period. We are able to show that these internal rates of return are mainly financed by increasing contributions and by increasing unfunded liabilities. Additionally, our analysis reveals that from an expenditure perspective, the major part of the internal rate of return results from changing longevity rather than other changes. We also estimate the implicit tax rates from a cross‐sectional perspective and find that they can mainly be interpreted as an ‘implicit wealth tax’ on pension wealth. Finally, we analyse the impact of demographic change on the balance sheet employing a population projection. While the pure demographic effect leads to a decreasing funding ratio during population ageing, the automatic balancing mechanisms of the German pension scheme lead to a significant overfunding in the long run from the accounting perspective adopted in the Swedish pension system.     

Synthetic Floating‐Rate Debt: An Example of an Asset‐Driven Liability Structure

An asset‐driven liability (ADL) structure is analogous to a liability‐driven investment (LDI) strategy. In both cases, the intent is to reduce the risk arising from a mismatch of assets and liabilities by aligning the interest rate sensitivity of cash flows on both sides of the balance sheet. Increasingly, defined‐benefit pension plans have adopted LDI strategies that reduce their equity assets and increase the average duration of their debt assets to better match the typical long duration of their retirement obligations to its employees. To illustrate the concept of ADL, the authors use the example of a corporate issue of traditional fixed‐rate debt that is transformed into synthetic floating‐rate debt using an interest rate swap (in which the corporation receives the fixed rate on the swap and pays at money market reference rate like three‐month LIBOR). The use of such long‐term, floating‐rate debt reduces interest rate risk when the firm has operating revenues that are positively correlated to the business cycle. However, a problem arises in that there is limited demand for such debt securities from institutional investors, many of which, because of LDI guidelines, prefer long‐term, fixed‐rate securities. Derivatives provide a way of resolving this mismatch between issuer and investor interests. In the article, the authors present a detailed example of the cash flows on the “receive‐fixed” interest rate swap (and its valuation for financial reporting) to show how the synthetic ADL debt structure obtains the desired outcome.     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

Demographic Change and Pension Reform in Spain: An Assessment in a Two‐Earner,OLG Model*

Recent pension reforms in Spain have been guided by two opposite goals: achieving financial stability and improving redistributive aspirations. In particular, reforms implemented in 1997/2001 entailed a mixture of both through: (i) changes in the pension formula; (ii) the extension of entitlement to early retirement to all cohorts; and (iii) increases in survival pensions. This paper builds an applied general equilibrium OLG model that captures the fundamental non‐stationarity of the Spanish reality (ageing population, education transition and increasing female attachment to the labour market) to assess the impact of those reforms. As a novel feature with respect to the literature, households in our model economy are made up of two potential earners who make saving and labour supply decisions. Our main conclusions from the analysis are at three different levels. First, the Spanish pension system is clearly unsustainable, with pension expenditure reaching a figure of about 18 per cent of GDP in 2050, and the reforms have clearly been     

Bank Failure,Mark‐to‐market and the Financial Crisis

This paper is concerned with the allegation that fair value accounting rules have contributed significantly to the recent financial crisis. It focuses on one particular channel for that contribution: the impact of fair value on the actual or potential failure of banks. The paper compares four criteria for failure: one economic, two legal and one regulatory. It is clear from this comparison that balance sheet valuations of assets are, in two cases, crucial in these definitions, and so the choice between ‘fair value’ or other valuations can be decisive in whether a bank fails; but in two cases fair value is irrelevant. Bank failures might arise despite capital adequacy and balance sheet solvency due to sudden shocks to liquidity positions. Two of the most prominent bank failures cannot, at first sight, be attributed to fair value accounting: we show that Northern Rock was balance sheet solvent, even on a fair value basis, as was Lehman Brothers. The case study evidence is augmented by econometric tests that suggest that mark‐to‐market accounting has had only a very limited influence on the perceived failure risk of banks.     

Grounds for Refusal of Recognition of (Quasi‐) Annex Judgements in the Recast European Insolvency Regulation

Insolvency‐related (annex) actions and judgements fall within the scope of the Recast European Insolvency Regulation (‘Recast EIR’). That instrument both determines international jurisdiction regarding annex actions and sets up a simplified recognition system for annex judgements. However, tension between the Recast EIR's provisions on jurisdiction and recognition arises when a court of a state different from the state of insolvency erroneously assumes jurisdiction for annex actions. Such ‘quasi‐annex’ judgements rendered by foreign courts erroneously assuming jurisdiction threaten the integrity of the insolvency proceedings. Besides, the quasi‐annex judgements may violate the effectiveness and efficiency of the insolvency proceedings as well as the principle of legal certainty. In this article, it is argued that even the current legal framework may offer some ways to avoid the recognition of such quasi‐annex judgements. First, the scope of the public policy exception may be extended in order to protect the integrity of the insolvency proceedings from the quasi‐annex judgements rendered by foreign courts erroneously assuming jurisdiction. Second, it may be argued that quasi‐annex judgements do not equal real annex judgements and therefore do not enjoy the automatic recognition system provided by the Recast EIR. At the same time, their close connection to the insolvency proceedings – disregarded by the forum erroneously assuming jurisdiction – may exclude quasi‐annex judgements from the scope of the Brussels Ibis Regulation, as well. As a consequence, those quasi‐annex judgements may fall within the gap between the two regulations, meaning that no European instrument instructs the courts of the member state addressed to recognise quasi‐annex judgements. Copyright © 2017 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Who Will Pay for Long‐Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro‐ and Micro‐Simulation Models

The long‐term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long‐term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state‐financed care, through innovative linking of macro‐ and micro‐simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state‐financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long‐term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long‐term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care‐home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.     

A case of constitutional apples and oranges: a functional comparison of pension priority and benefit guarantees in U.S., U.K. and Canadian insolvency and pension law regimes

Canada's insolvency law reform increased the priority granted to employer‐sponsored pension claims. The article compares the treatment of such claims in the U.S., the U.K. and Canada. A comparison of the legislative provisions concerning pension funding shortfalls from contribution arrears or economic underperformance in relation to the assumptions used for investment income or liability valuations finds that insolvency law has been used to address contribution arrears, but risks from economic underperformance have been addressed by pension benefit insurance. Post‐insolvency priority for contribution arrears provides appropriate incentives to discourage pre‐insolvency preferences for payments to other creditors, while shortfalls from economic underperformance do not involve issues of preference between creditors. The absence of any insolvency rationale for changing priority for shortfalls from economic underperformance and the likely disparity between the assets available to satisfy clams and the much larger amounts of such shortfalls makes the use of insolvency law to address this risk much less effective than insurance. Canada, however, has not adopted the insurance policy instrument used in the U.S. and U.K. to mitigate the impact of pension funding shortfalls. The constitutional inability of Canada to legislate in respect of matters of pension regulation that would allow it to control the well‐known insurance problems of moral hazard and adverse selection may explain why it has only chosen to adopt an insolvency policy instrument. However, a change in priorities in insolvency may generate incentives for secured creditors that either undermine or reinforce this policy choice. Secured creditors could attempt to circumvent the new priority scheme through private arrangements with the debtor or to increase their monitoring activities to ensure the debtor is current in its pension contributions. Secured creditors choices will be influenced by the bankruptcy courts' interpretation of the preference provisions in the insolvency legislation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Take‐Up of Multiple Means‐Tested Benefits by British Pensioners: Evidence from the Family Resources Survey

Non‐take‐up of means‐tested benefits among pensioners is of long‐standing concern. It has assumed increased importance from October 2003 with the introduction of the new means‐tested pension credit to which about half of pensioners are expected to be entitled. We use Family Resources Survey data from April 1997 to March 2000 to investigate patterns of pensioner take‐up of income support (IS) (subsequently renamed the minimum income guarantee and now subsumed in pension credit), housing benefit (HB) and council tax benefit (CTB). Although 36 per cent of pensioners in our sample failed to claim their entitlements to at least one of these benefits, only 16 per cent failed to claim amounts worth more than 10 per cent of their disposable income. Generally, take‐up is high where entitlement is high. But there are exceptions which may reflect the claims process and/or a greater degree of social stigma associated with IS than with HB or CTB.     

Comparative Analysis of the Informal Pre‐Insolvency Procedures of the UK and France

The aim of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the informal pre‐insolvency proceedings available in the UK and France. In addition, the aim is to provide a comparative analysis of the approach taken towards corporate rescue at this early stage by the ‘key players’ in insolvency. In particular, emphasis will be placed on the role of insolvency practitioners and creditors as well as the involvement of the courts in pre‐insolvency restructurings. Finally, the paper considers the effectiveness of the pre‐insolvency mechanisms available in the two jurisdictions and assesses whether or not these promote and encourage a corporate rescue culture. Copyright © 2016 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

‘Bankruptcy tourism’ under the EC regulation on insolvency proceedings: A view from England and Wales

This article provides an account of the emergent phenomenon of ‘bankruptcy tourism’—forum shopping by debtors for favourable personal insolvency law—within the EU and with particular reference to England and Wales. After outlining the structural features of the European legal framework that make forum shopping for personal insolvency law possible, including the EC Regulation on Insolvency Proceedings and explaining why England and Wales in particular has proved to be an attractive ‘tourist’ destination, the article charts how the official receivers and the courts in England and Wales have sought to manage the influx of foreign bankruptcies in terms of legal principle and process drawing on two reported cases, Eichler and Mitterfellner. It will be seen that the institutional response in England and Wales has been twofold. First, the ‘problem’ of forum shopping debtors has been framed as a problem of policing the line between genuine and fictional relocations. Secondly, there are signs that the procedural onus on debtors to evidence their claim to English jurisdiction before a bankruptcy order is made has been increased, a move that can be interpreted as a form of institutional resistance designed to raise the barrier to entry. Having sought to illuminate the problems, costs and inconvenience associated with forum shopping from a practitioner standpoint, we explore the ‘good’ versus ‘bad’ forum shopping question and consider the scope for reform of the EC Regulation. Adopting a creditor perspective, we conclude provisionally that the Regulation could usefully be reformed to limit the scope for insolvent debtors to switch their COMI in anticipation of filing for bankruptcy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of recognition vs. disclosure on investor valuation: The case of pension accounting

Whether or not the format of financial reporting influences user assessment of the reported information is an important issue to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), and managers. Do investors, in determining security prices, differentiate between information recognized in the balance sheet and that disclosed in the footnotes? The findings indicate that investors appear to consider pension information disclosed in the footnotes as value-relevant, given that an accrued (prepaid) pension liability (asset) is also recognized in the balance sheet. Second, investors attach equal importance to both sorts of pension information.     

Asset Securitizations and Credit Default Swaps

This study examines the effects of off‐balance sheet versus on‐balance sheet securitizations on the originator's credit risk in the default swap (CDS) market across the recent business cycle from 2002 to 2009. I find that on‐balance sheet securitizations demonstrate greater effects on the originator's CDS premium than off‐balance sheet securitizations in the business cycle. While off‐balance sheet securitizations’ effects on the originator's CDS premium become significantly stronger after 2007 when the economy declines, on‐balance sheet securitizations’ effects on the originator's CDS premium do not experience a significant change with the onset of the recession. The results suggest that the CDS market views originators as having greater probabilities not to honour their implicit guarantees for off‐balance sheet securitizations during the economic downturn. The results also indicate that on balance sheet and off‐balance sheet securitizations have distinctly different risk properties. It would be beneficial to investors if regulations take into considerations the changing credit risks of off‐balance sheet securitizations and the different structures of asset securitizations.     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

Conflicts of interest,intra‐group financing and procedural coordination of group insolvencies

Modern insolvency law instruments recognise the specificity of enterprise group insolvencies, premised on the existence of close operational and financial links between group members. It is widely accepted that maximisation of insolvency estate value and procedural efficiency depend on coordination of insolvency proceedings opened with respect to group entities. Such coordination is prescribed in the European Insolvency Regulation (recast), the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Model Law on Enterprise Group Insolvency and the recently reformed German insolvency law. Yet in insolvency, group members retain their own insolvency estates and pools of creditors. This is based on the traditional company law principle of entity shielding. Active communication and cooperation between insolvency practitioners and courts do not sit well with the separate (atomistic) nature of insolvency proceedings, as well as different and oftentimes conflicting interests of creditors in such proceedings. As a result, communication and cooperation may be restricted in a situation of conflicts of interest. This article explores how in the context of group distress the risks arising from conflicts of interest can be controlled and mitigated, while ensuring efficient cross‐border cooperation and communication to the maximum extent possible. It analyses three cutting‐edge coordination mechanisms, namely (a) cross‐border insolvency agreements or protocols, (b) special (group coordination and planning) proceedings and (c) the appointment of a single insolvency practitioner. It concludes that both the likelihood and significance of conflicts of interest correlate with the degree of procedural coordination. Therefore, conflict mitigation tools and strategies need to be tailor‐made and targeted at a specific level and coordination mechanism.     

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life‐Cycle Model

This article examines the impact of participants’ age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that a 1‐year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction of the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age‐equity exposure effect. The average age of active participants influences investment behavior more strongly than the average age of all participants, which is plausible as retirees no longer possess any human capital.     

Solvency, Capital Allocation, and Fair Rate of Return in Insurance

In this article, we consider the links between solvency, capital allocation, and fair rate of return in insurance. A method to allocate capital in insurance to lines of business is developed based on an economic definition of solvency and the market value of the insurer balance sheet. Solvency, and its financial impact, is determined by the value of the insolvency exchange option. The allocation of capital is determined using a complete markets’ arbitrage‐free model and, as a result, has desirable properties, such as the allocated capital “adds up” and is consistent with the economic value of the balance sheet assets and liabilities. A single‐period discrete‐state model example is used to illustrate the results. The impact of adding lines of business is briefly considered.     

The Many Challenges of Pension Accounting

Accounting for defined benefit pension plans has long been a major issue in accounting. Standard‐setters are grappling with revisions to pension accounting standards, and much change has already occurred in the United Kingdom. This paper identifies and discusses most of the major issues that standard‐setters must confront in developing new approaches to financial reporting for pensions. Key issues concern how to report the impact of changes in assumptions, how to recognize pension costs on the balance sheet and income statement, and how to reconcile the differences between accountants' and actuaries' approaches to pensions. Current standards assume that accounting estimates are independent of actuarial assumptions, and yet require a direct comparison of the accounting liability with the pension plan assets, when in fact they are incompatible measures based on differing assumptions and differing methodologies. As well, accounting has been complicit in managers' wishes to hide the volatility inherent in a pension plan investment strategy that focuses on higher‐risk equities to fund estimated monetary liabilities that have been discounted at low‐risk interest rates. Drawing on studies and research done largely in Europe, this paper attempts to consolidate some of the current thinking on the topic and to propose some preferred approaches to dealing with the problems of pension accounting.     

Pension benchmarks: empirical estimation and results for the United States and Germany

Benchmark replacement rates are a key parameter for retirement plans. Often, a pension level of around 70 per cent of net income during working life is considered as an adequate choice. However, this heuristic value is left unjustified, and data-based benchmarks are limited. In this paper, we propose to estimate a pension-level benchmark based on keeping the living standard achieved during working life constant after retirement. Applying parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric estimation methods to data from the United States and Germany, we find that a net pension income of around 100 per cent of the last net working-life income, plus or minus 10 percentage points, is required to keep the living standard constant. However, we also find that the outcome of the exercise can depend on how ‘living standards’ are measured.     

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.