Spatial Economic Analysis in Data‐Rich Environments

Controlling for spatial effects in micro‐level studies of consumer and producer behaviour necessitates a range of analytical modifications. These range from modest changes in data collection and the definition of variables to dramatic changes in the modelling of consumer and producer decision‐making. This paper discusses conceptual, empirical and data issues involved in modelling the spatial aspects of economic behaviour in data‐rich environments. Attention is given to established and emerging agricultural economic applications of spatial data and spatial econometric methods at the micro‐scale. Recent applications of individual and household data are featured, including models of land‐use change at the urban–rural interface, agricultural land values, and technological change and technology adoption.     

The land resource: Policy and management

Summary

This paper advocates the preparation by major urban planning authorities of land budgets to obtain a satisfactory balance between the development of derelict or vacant land and greenfield sites. Such budgets, requiring a city‐regional dimension, should be implemented by the public and private sectors, both of which need to find means of channelling profits from peripheral or out‐of‐town projects to counter losses on the development or ‘greening’ of inner‐city sites. Suggestions are made as to the form of land budgets, and the means by which they could be put into effect. The paper reviews briefly the various outlooks on the issue of balance between the development of urban and rural land, and the state of the art of priority setting for this purpose by central and local government. Although high standards are set by a few metropolitan areas in accounting for and monitoring the land resource, this is by no means widespread. Indeed in several major urban areas the matter does not even appear to be treated as a policy issue. Amongst the measures required to improve the situation is the need for wider use of skills attuned to development finance and management.     

基于分型理论的四川秦巴山区城镇体系研究

秦巴山区被列为我国11个连片特困地区,在我国"十三五"精准扶贫工作的背景下,对四川秦巴山区城镇体系的研究具有重要意义。基于非线性科学分形理论以及GIS相关软件的运用,对四川秦巴山区城镇体系的城市首位度、规模等级分形特征、空间向心性分形、均衡性分形、关联性分形等方面进行分析,得出四川秦巴山区城镇体系具有明显的分形特征,但是首位城市不突出、城镇体系呈现扁平,以通川区为中心的集聚性显著,城镇空间分布结构不紧凑,交通网络发育度亟待提高。以上结论可以为四川秦巴山区城镇规划提供有针对性的理论依据和引导对策,为同类型地区城镇体系研究提供科学参考。     

自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响研究

［目的］针对全国31个省（市、区）（不含港澳台地区）、自然资源依赖度高的地区和自然资源依赖度低的地区，从整体和分区域研究自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响，探究不同区域其影响程度的差异性，进而为弱化各区域城乡收入差距，解决由城乡收入差距拉大造成的各类社会矛盾具有重要的现实意义。［方法］从理论上分析了自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响，并利用1999—2017年的省级面板数据，运用固定效应模型，从全国和分区域实证分析了自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响。［结果］针对全国，自然资源依赖会拉大城乡收入差距； 分区域结果，针对自然资源依赖度高的地区，自然资源依赖拉大城乡收入差距； 针对自然资源依赖度低的地区，自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距影响不显著。［结论］为缩小城乡收入差距，需要降低经济体对自然资源的依赖，针对自然资源依赖度高的地区，政府通过将部分自然资源收益转化为农业创新基金和农村基础设施投入，促进自然资源收益向农村公共资本转化，完善现有的自然资源收益分配及转化制度； 鼓励资源型产业技术创新，加大研发投入，延长资源产业链； 加大农村教育投入、提升农村人力资本质量。     

Valuing ecosystem services of urban forests and open spaces: application of the SEEA framework in Australia*

Around two‐thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050 requiring large urban infrastructure development. Decision‐makers and planners usually rely on standard economic accounting methods for urban planning and investments on infrastructure assets. However, standard methods fail to account for the ecosystem services benefits that living infrastructure (e.g. urban forests, open spaces) provides to city dwellers. This could generate socially inefficient configurations of urban spaces and compromise the achievement of long‐term urban sustainability targets. In this analysis, we applied a stochastic whole‐of‐life benefit–cost analysis following the System of Environmental‐Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework to compare alternative long‐term management strategies for living infrastructure in Canberra, Australia. Spatially explicit data, i‐Tree Eco and benefit transfer methods were used to estimate the stocks and flows ecosystem services benefits of urban forests and irrigated open spaces from 2018 to 2070. Our analysis suggests that a ’30 per cent canopy cover expansion’ scenario has the highest benefit–cost ratio, while the business as usual scenario, where a net loss of 400 trees is expected per year, offers the lowest benefit–cost ratio. Scenarios of expanding versus not expanding irrigated open spaces in the future both result in a benefit–cost ratio of approximately two.     

Short-term employment transitions of the Canadian labour force: rural-urban differences in underemployment

Using data from the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the period 1993–1996, we examine patterns and determinants of labour‐force transitions of adequately employed and underemployed workers in an attempt to explore whether employment dynamics significantly differ between rural and urban workers so as to disadvantage rural economic performance. The results indicate that rural adequately employed workers are significantly more likely to enter underemployment but once they are underemployed, they also have a higher probability of re‐entering adequate employment. Further, we also found weak evidence that the education level of workers has a lower impact on the probability of moving out of underemployment in rural than in urban areas. In addition, rural women are significantly less likely than their male counterparts and urban workers to enter adequate employment, although the presence of young children does not seem to especially constrain the employment of rural women. The results suggest that labour‐force transition in and out of adequate employment, and particularly underemployment, significantly differ between rural and urban workers and should be taken into account when evaluating employment hardship in rural Canada.     

Assessing growth management policy implementation: Case study of the United States' leading growth management state

Many states in the United States attempt to manage urban growth so that development is directed to urban areas equipped to accommodate development and rural lands are preserved for resource and other non-urban uses. Oregon is entering its third decade of what many commentators describe as the nation's most aggressive urban growth management program administered statewide. This article reports a recent evaluation of the effectiveness of state urban growth management policies as they are implemented in four urban areas. The study is the first of its kind to assess development patterns associated with administration of statewide growth management policies by local governments. Using primary data collection and analysis, effectiveness of urban growth management and resource land preservation efforts is found to be mixed. In some situations, administration does not appear to be effectively directing development into urban growth boundaries and away from resource lands. In other situations, administration appears to be quite effective. Problems with administration are found in all situations. This article offers two generalizable outcomes. The first is a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of any given urban growth management program to effect desired development patterns. The second is a specific set of policy lessons learned by Oregon in its effort to create definable, compact urban centers and preserve resource land for non-urban uses.     

Urban Sprawl and Farmland Prices

A theoretical model of farmland valuation is developed to explicitly account for three effects of urban sprawl: conversion of farmland to urban uses, effect on agricultural returns, and speculative effect as represented by farmland conversion risk. This model is estimated using county-level data in the continental United States. Evidence is found for all three effects of urban sprawl on farmland values. Counties more accessible to major urban centers have higher net agricultural returns. Subsidiary evidence supports that the latter effect may be attributed to survival of (or conversion to) high-valued agriculture around urban centers.     

The effect of land use regulations on farmland protection and non‐agricultural land conversions in China

This paper examines the effect of the Prime Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high quality farmland from urban development and the subsequent effect on non‐farmland conversion in China in the first decade after the Regulation came into effect (1995‐2005). The empirical evaluation is conducted with geo‐referenced panel data for the entire country. Results indicate that the rate of farmland conversion was reduced during 1995‐2000. About two‐fifths of the reduction results from the protection of farmland with high grain productivity. There is no evidence of the effectiveness of the Regulation in protecting farmland during the period 2000–2005, regardless of land quantity or quality. Farmland development was accompanied by a reduction in forests and grasslands during the period from 1995 through to 2005.     

Hedonic Valuation in an Urban High‐Rise Housing Market

This study estimates the effect of spatial heterogeneity and housing‐unit attributes on the value of apartment housing in a densely urban Chinese housing market. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, high‐rise housing complexes present complications in that the vertical dimension is important in purchase decisions—yet the spatial econometric literature has focused exclusively on two dimensions. We introduce a three‐dimensional (3‐D) spatial weights matrix to capture the potential for “within project” correlation among housing units located on different floors within a project. Second, a significant proportion of the world's population lives in urban high‐rise buildings but the literature has, for the most part, completely ignored such markets. Test statistics support the use of a 3‐D weight matrix; our application of the hedonic methodology to a dense, vertical housing market shows that it can be used to value amenities located within or adjacent to housing complex amenities. In our empirical example, though, we observe little difference in marginal valuation of amenities under a 3‐D weight matrix relative to a standard 2‐D weight matrix.     

Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao,China*

This study relates the social‐demographic characteristics of urban Chinese consumers to their consumption of fluid milk. A Tobit model is estimated drawing on individual consumer survey data collected in urban Qingdao in China in 2005. The major results of this study indicate that fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao is much higher compared to China's national level. The effect of increased income on milk consumption is positive, as expected. The expansion of modern food retailers also appears to play a positive role by facilitating consumers’ fluid milk consumption and influencing their food shopping patterns. The young and old consume significantly more fluid milk than the middle‐aged. Health consciousness of the elderly and the openness of youth to new foods appear to be fuelling these consumption patterns. If the findings of this study apply to other urban regions in China, then as urbanisation continues so also will the trend of increasing fluid milk consumption in China.     

Valuing public and private urban tree canopy cover

In this paper, we estimate the effect of tree canopy cover on sales price of urban residential properties in Perth, Western Australia. Using a data set of 5606 single family homes sold in 2009 and a spatial hedonic model with three spatial effects – spatial‐temporal lag on dependent variable, spatial error, and spatially lagged independent variables – we estimated the location‐specific effect of tree canopy cover. Tree canopy cover increases the property value when located on adjacent public space, but decreases the value when it is on own property and on the adjacent property within 20 m of property boundary. The results are suggestive that council urban tree planting programs provide significant private benefits to homeowners.     

World food prices and poverty in Indonesia

Spikes in international food prices in 2007–2008 worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, both rural and urban, but only by small amounts. The paper reaches this conclusion using a multisectoral and multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The negative effect on poor consumers, operating through their living costs, outweighed the positive effect on poor farmers, operating through their incomes. Indonesia's post‐2004 rice import restrictions shielded its internal rice market from the temporary world price increases, muting the increase in poverty. But it did this only by imposing large and permanent increases in both domestic rice prices and poverty incidence. Poverty incidence increased more among rural than urban people, even though higher agricultural prices mean higher incomes for many of the rural poor. Gains to poor farmers were outweighed by the losses incurred by the large number of rural poor who are net buyers of food, and the fact that food represents a large share of their total budgets, even larger on average than for the urban poor. The main beneficiaries of higher food prices are not the rural poor, but the owners of agricultural land and capital, many of whom are urban based.     

The demand for meat and fish in Spain: Urban and rural areas

The aim of the paper is to explain to what extent meat consumption patterns in Spain are different in rural and urban areas and which are the factors explaining differences and similarities. A demand system using cross-section data from the latest Spanish National Survey has been estimated. Unit values have been used instead of market prices and price and quality effects have been obtained. The main conclusion is that meat consumption patterns in urban and rural areas are not really different as regards economic factors. Some small income and price effect differences have been found, specially for fresh pork and fish, Responses to changes in income and price are higher for fresh pork consumption in rural areas and for fish in urban areas.     

基于因子分析法的城市群综合竞争力研究——以四川省四大城市群为例

根据国家"十三五"区域规划空间布局,发挥城市群的辐射带动作用、提升城市群的综合竞争力将是谋求区域经济协调发展、实现新型城镇化的主战场。城市群综合竞争力指标体系主要包含经济发展、社会发展、基础设施和生态环境4个维度。以四川省四大城市群的为研究对象,运用因子分析法对四大城市群竞争力进行定量评价,并结合各城市群的具体特征,提出了建立"一核多极"、"以点带面"的城市群发展新格局,促进城市群竞争力有效提升。     

The Amenity Value of Agricultural Landscape and Rural–Urban Land Allocation

We analyse rural–urban land allocation in the light of the increasing environmental role of agricultural landscapes. The landscape amenity value of farmland varies across crops and as a result affects the optimal crop mix in addition to its effect on rural–urban land allocation. Investigating the effects of population and income growth processes, we find that, contrary to market outcomes, the socially optimal allocation may call for more farmland preservation under both processes. In an empirical application to a region in Israel, we find that the extent of market under‐supply of farmland is substantial and that population growth calls for more farmland preservation at the expense of urban land.     

Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique

Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.     

Prices paid for farmland in Ontario: Does buyer type matter?

In the wake of the substantial increases in farmland values that have occurred in Ontario since 2008, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential influence of nonfarmer buyers, such as investment companies and foreign buyers, on prices paid for farmland. To examine whether these concerns may be warranted, this paper estimates the impact of nonfarmer buyers on sale prices for farmland in Ontario, using a hedonic approach and farmland sales data from 2002 to 2016. Analysis is also conducted to determine whether marginal implicit prices of specific farm attributes differ between farmer buyers and nonfarmer buyers. The results indicate that nonfarmer buyers have paid higher prices for farmland, but only in near‐urban areas. In addition, differences in marginal implicit prices for farmland attributes are found, where farmer buyers value more highly attributes related to the agricultural productivity of the property while nonfarmer buyers value more highly attributes related to nonagricultural use. These results imply that the higher prices paid by nonfarmers may be attributable to the bid‐rent theory, as nonfarmers may be bidding more than farmers for farmland in near‐urban areas due to higher expected returns from future urban use of the land.     

Do wheat futures returns exhibit long‐range dependence?

The efficient market hypothesis, where asset prices follow a random walk and incorporate all relevant information, is often invoked in financial economics. There is some evidence however to suggest that some asset prices do not follow random walks but display long‐range dependence. Such systematic behavior of past returns is of interest to traders. This article examines long‐range dependence in wheat futures prices using rescaled range analysis and the Hurst exponent. Since this estimate is biased when long‐range dependence is absent and its distribution is unknown, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed. Results show that wheat futures prices show no evidence of long‐range dependence and there are no profitable trading rules.     

Determinants of Residential Land-Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe

We estimate a probit model of residential land conversion using parcel-level data from a rural-urban county in Ohio. Spatial landscape pattern metrics are used to quantify land-use patterns and to link patterns of residential sprawl with factors estimated to influence parcel-level land conversion. Findings indicate that the location of new residential development is influenced by preferences for lower density areas that nonetheless are close to existing urban development. Combined, these forces have generated a moderated pattern of residential sprawl. Spatial error autocorrelation is controlled using a spatial sampling technique that enables consistent estimation of the probit model.